BullCityWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nice 1.5" for fqd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 through 27 hours, still not much moisture and technically theres zilch run from chesnee SC to Fort Mill SC along the NC/SC border, ie, my area. And only trace amounts surrounding it, but you get into central SC to the southern sandhills of NC and it increases a good bit. If we get precip tomorrow here looks like it will come from the left overs of the mass now in Texas, not the baroclinic boundary, overruning backing precip now south of Florida. Who knows the models could be missing the amount of return moisture. The 5H looks stronger on Initialized and the winds do back nicely for a while then it vanishes. Going to come down to watching radars in the morning. Atleast its a little cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Cold chasing out the moisture at 33..not a bad run considering the NAM...I would say maybe it's picking up the trend but 00z will probably be totally dry altogether with our storm headed to Cuba. Looks like RDU will do good with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 through 27 hours, still not much moisture and technically theres zilch run from chesnee SC to Fort Mill SC along the NC/SC border, ie, my area. And only trace amounts surrounding it, but you get into central SC to the southern sandhills of NC and it increases a good bit. If we get precip tomorrow here looks like it will come from the left overs of the mass now in Texas, not the baroclinic boundary, overruning backing precip now south of Florida. Who knows the models could be missing the amount of return moisture. The 5H looks stronger on Initialized and the winds do back nicely for a while then it vanishes. Going to come down to watching radars in the morning. Atleast its a little cooler. Yep GFS gives further evidence this is a cluster ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 By good I mean have a shot...so don't be so excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't think it can be over emphasized how badly the last event(last weekend) was modeled by the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not much, but hopefully this is a start! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Raleigh reached 42 today, Greensboro got up to 40, but Charlotte really overachieved at a shocking 52 degrees today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 the 30 gfs looks like the 36 nam in the realm of light returns in I77 W to the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Is that a little 850 low popping up at 30 hours around CAE? through 27 hours, still not much moisture and technically theres zilch run from chesnee SC to Fort Mill SC along the NC/SC border, ie, my area. And only trace amounts surrounding it, but you get into central SC to the southern sandhills of NC and it increases a good bit. If we get precip tomorrow here looks like it will come from the left overs of the mass now in Texas, not the baroclinic boundary, overruning backing precip now south of Florida. Who knows the models could be missing the amount of return moisture. The 5H looks stronger on Initialized and the winds do back nicely for a while then it vanishes. Going to come down to watching radars in the morning. Atleast its a little cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 just got in and I see we're banking on the 18z Nam? Man it's going to be depressing as hell if the nam is right because of how close the snow would be while I sit here in the 30s with rain. Sigh. If the nam is right though, there would be some accumulations from around rome to toccoa and northward..probably on the order of 1 to 2 inches. A quick glance at soundings show Rome looks cold enough for snow ..while gainesville is a bit too warm. So there is a fine line between snow and rain in georgia..if the nam is right. Same goes for the upstate. Anderson looks too warm while gsp looks cold enough for mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yep GFS gives further evidence this is a cluster ****. through the storm theres literally zilch here at my place to Gaffney to Chesnee and Rock Hill. Think the model is trying to tell me something. Overall, we need to get moisture coming in from the southwest sooner, otherwise we're depending on whats left over of the shortwave now in Texas which that area of moisture is going to be weak I think when it gets to this side of the mountains, per most models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Sorry Brick but the 18z GFS does not have anything significant QPF wise for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't think it can be over emphasized how badly the last event(last weekend) was modeled by the NAM. if I recall it had CLT and points west in a .10" or less quadrant? It was a dud event here, .02", just freezing drizzle. edit. I see you meant the previous event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Is that a little 850 low popping up at 30 hours around CAE? indeed, just saw that. It starts forming at 27 hour and only holds 3 hours, but its in the right spot to help us out here for sure. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Going out to eat my the wife and the family for her Birthday. I love you NAM. I will toast to your greatness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Sorry Brick but the 18z GFS does not have anything significant QPF wise for you. I'm not sure if I just don't care anymore about this storm or if the models just wore me down. As long as we've been doing this on weather boards do you ever remember so many different looks from the models? To be honest, I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Greensboro at 37 degrees, RDU at 38 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm not sure if I just don't care anymore about this storm or if the models just wore me down. As long as we've been doing this on weather boards do you ever remember so many different looks from the models? To be honest, I don't. Its been pretty crazy and now we are getting close to the time where its going to be nowcast over looking at models due to spin up issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 39 SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 This is an excellent run for Elizabeth City imo, know most of us could care less as we do not have any members from that area (as far I am aware of), but a sig hit there in what would be an almost all SN event with >0.5". Still some waffling going on between the american guidance 18z runs in the short term, which is to be expected. Of note, for this past wintery bag of wtf event, the nam and gfs were sig to low on QPF amounts here. I had 1" liquid in the gauge once I melted it, and both models were painting <0.5" in the 24-48 out window. Hopefully this is not the 18z fluke we are used to, as both models have trended towards a more favorable solution. Once the 0z RAOB ingest is in, we will either know it is legit, or just another example of 18z fantasia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Let's get that red down east of Jamaica up here. Then we'd really be in business..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Brick.. dont look now but WRAL has no snow for you in their forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NegativeTilt Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Brick.. dont look now but WRAL has no snow for you in their forecast. waaaaa waaaaaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Brick.. dont look now but WRAL has no snow for you in their forecast. Oh my but then you scroll down and see the WRAL weather team cya part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It looks like that was updated at 3:01 this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 But NBC17 says game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nam sure looks a lot better than the GFS for those of us in the Triad area. Only problem is who wants the 18z Nam on their side. As far as now casting. Can anyone tell which model seems to have the best handle on the current moisture and strength/placement of the shortwave on their 6 hr forecast of their 18z runs; which would be current in 90 minutes or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The Southern Foothills and Piedmont of NC is so much warmer than most of the rest of the state. CLT is above 50 degrees while much of the rest of the state is in the 30s. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The Southern Foothills and Piedmont of NC is so much warmer than most of the rest of the state. CLT is above 50 degrees while much of the rest of the state is in the 30s. Wow. I was just looking at the data, you are right- wow. I hit 53.0 today, down to 48.0 quickly however. Warm frontal boundry sagging south I would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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