Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 That disco out of RAH was from 2:55. They hadn't seen the NAM yet. I feel very confident that had they seen the 18Z Nam they would have said exactly the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GFS is processing....... It better process some snow. I don't want to not look forward to the 0Z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I should have clarified when saying "blank here," with 0" of accum. Good luck out that way, as it is overdue! I won't hate, hope you get in on the action as well! Brad P. on WCNC is already talking about the "new information". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I was really interested by this and the GFS ensembles. Now it's time to get the verdict from the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Afternoon guys, disappointing for me up here on Long Island as yesterdays 12z runs showed a hit but the overwhelming consensus now is for a miss to the east. I am sitll rooting for the SE and will be keeping an eye on things as I always do! I like the look of the 18z NAM for snow lovers but I would caution we need consistency.. dont worry about QPFs right now. Yesterdays system proved model QPF were placed wrong and this has to with Bulk Microphysical Parametrizations of ice-cloud processes and precipitation processes and if they are not simulated right the QPF field is not reliable. Seeing .5 of liquid equivalent in RDU when most NAM runs and even the GFS had nothing more than a few tenths shows not to rely on just the QPF field. I like the look of the soundings and the 18z NAM has good veritcal motion and saturation in the snow growth zone late Saturday afternoon into the evening from central NC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 I won't hate, hope you get in on the action as well! Brad P. on WCNC is already talking about the "new information". I still may do a token chase tomorrow afternoon and into Sunday in the area towards my NE, if it looks promising to verify at warning criteria. Relatively short travel and expenses for a one night stay would be worth some Sunday am sledding action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 just got in and I see we're banking on the 18z Nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I still may do a token chase tomorrow afternoon and into Sunday in the area towards my NE, if it looks promising to verify at warning criteria. Relatively short travel and expenses for a one night stay would be worth some Sunday am sledding action! If CLT looks to be the winner you're free to stay with me dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 When the 18z NAM shows nothing, throw it out cause it never verifies...when it shows money it's time to take it to the bank! Now lets see if the 18z GFS follows suite. A quote from one of my favorite movies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 just got in and I see we're banking on the 18z Nam? Only bank in town right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Hey guys I'm on the road I'm posting from my black berry. Can someone tell me how much accum it shows up here if any kmwk ? Thanks a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Lets call it a hope as we look for more more agreement. As SBUWX noted. just got in and I see we're banking on the 18z Nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I feel very confident that had they seen the 18Z Nam they would have said exactly the same thing. RAH seems to always be as broad as posible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 just got in and I see we're banking on the 18z Nam? yep now the wish casting has started! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 A quote from one of my favorite movies! Haha yea, Eyewall has been posting that as well. It's the weenie motto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Only bank in town right now. cue the feds and congress, another bailout is imminent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Hey guys I'm on the road I'm posting from my black berry. Can someone tell me how much accum it shows up here if any kmwk ? Thanks a lot. your so funny. Go eat and quit worrying about it. Enjoy your family Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Out to 9 lets see where it goes, it looks a little bit better then 12z but who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 At 12 hr. it looks really close to phasing with that energy coming through Tx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Talking dirty to us, aren't you? Afternoon guys, disappointing for me up here on Long Island as yesterdays 12z runs showed a hit but the overwhelming consensus now is for a miss to the east. I am sitll rooting for the SE and will be keeping an eye on things as I always do! I like the look of the 18z NAM for snow lovers but I would caution we need consistency.. dont worry about QPFs right now. Yesterdays system proved model QPF were placed wrong and this has to with Bulk Microphysical Parametrizations of ice-cloud processes and precipitation processes and if they are not simulated right the QPF field is not reliable. Seeing .5 of liquid equivalent in RDU when most NAM runs and even the GFS had nothing more than a few tenths shows not to rely on just the QPF field. I like the look of the soundings and the 18z NAM has good veritcal motion and saturation in the snow growth zone late Saturday afternoon into the evening from central NC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This could be a good run boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 @ 21 more west and north with moisture going into Tn. but none into NC yet. Light qpf is over most of Ga and SC from GSP to ATL dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This could be a good run boys. so the euro is going to be that far off within 48 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 CREEPING in -- I swear there is some puppeteer manipulating these models to cause as much angst as possible .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigdog_10_2002 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Don't play with our emotions burger. They are at an all time tense level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Extracted NAM data gives both Gastonia and Charlotte close to 4"...but the NAM got owned so bad in the last event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nice Extracted NAM data gives both Gastonia and Charlotte close to 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Still looks too far east with the bulk of the moisture at 27 though light qpf is over most of NC except for a little strip in central NC. 850's are a little warm for CLT area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Extracted NAM data gives both Gastonia and Charlotte close to 4" If this trend were to continue (and radar obs verify), then you will need to drive back up from Cola dude. At least the drive is not too far ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nice 1.5" for fqd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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