Carvers Gap Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 WeatherNC, is that virga in TN. I can't find any reports of precip reaching the ground at the moment. Gotta say, I didn't expect the radar to be looking like that. If you pull up the 0z 60 hr QPF map, it doesn't seem to match what seems to be showing on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 off topic, but all i can say is, yes please. cad ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVille Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSnowstorm Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I am a senior at NCSU...so not in your class but we go to the same school... Where to you go to school? There's only three meteorology schools in NC, I think, so it's not out of the realm of possibility you go to NCSU! And, if you're a freshman then you're in the same class I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I am a senior at NCSU...so not in your class but we go to the same school... Haha, alright, good deal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KO0588 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 00z WRF looks "off"? Radar doesn't match initialization. http://www.nco.ncep....sw_ref_006l.gif http://images.intell...a_None_anim.gif lol its missing what 3/4 of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 33 right now and still climbing down slowly. Gonna catch a few hours of sleep. Then wake up and see where we're at. Hopefully I will wake up to a surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 Wisping cirrus from the west over a waxing moon here in Pitt county. Talked to a couple other locals and they noticed, as did I, a halo around the moon earlier as a result of ul moisture. Given a 25/25 at the airport and 24.3 imby, one would think that is promising going forward . Not likely to happen here though, <10%. My non-visual graphic paints a line from Elizabeth City to Rocky Mount, then south on 95 towards Benson. Points to the west of that by 50 miles stand the best chance of accum. For those watching radar, if I was in western NC, I would be watching the batch coming up through Birmingham AL, and whatever builds to the nw of that. For those in the central part of the state, keep an eye on the trends to the west, as well as the flow through the FL panhandle, se AL, and the western half of GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Snippet from NWS-GSP: "THE SECOND THING TO CONSIDER IS IF THE EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. 4 OR SO OF THE 21 UTC SREF MEMBERS HAVE ACCUMULATING SNOW AT CHARLOTTE...WITH A FEW MORE MEMBERS NOW AT LEAST GENERATING SOME SNOWFALL...IF NOT ACCUMULATIONS. I HAVE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR FOR TMRW AS I THINK THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH STRONG ENOUGH UVVS TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW AND HAVE IT STICK A LITTLE. THIS IS FROM A GOOD CROSSHAIR SIGNATURE ON THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT CHARLOTTE IN THE LATE AFTN. THE 18 UTC GFS...HOWEVER...WAS QUITE DRY. IF THE 00 UTC RUN COMES IN A LITTLE WETTER AND COLDER...ACCUMULATIONS MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP A LITTLE. OVER THE UPSTATE THE LLVLS STAY TOO WARM FOR MORE THAN A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AT LEAST THE WAY THINGS LOOK NOW." Well worded and with what they are dealing with, you could not ask for a better approach, per their FD. Brandon (HKYWx), You may be in for more of a surprise in the way of accumulating snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Please don't pull out the Intellicast maps. It's bad enough the Euro even let us down. Let's not let virga do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 Please don't pull out the Intellicast maps. It's bad enough the Euro even let us down. Let's not let virga do the same. L2 weenie-vision color table already loaded to pick up 1 dbz returns, what's the deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSnowstorm Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Yeah...my eyes are on the bands south of the FL panhandle...they appear to be moderate and increasing in size...they definitely need to be watched...I might have to get a nap here and check back in a few... Wisping cirrus from the west over a waxing moon here in Pitt county. Talked to a couple other locals and they noticed, as did I, a halo around the moon earlier as a result of ul moisture. Given a 25/25 at the airport and 24.3 imby, one would think that is promising going forward . Not likely to happen here though, <10%. My non-visual graphic paints a line from Elizabeth City to Rocky Mount, then south on 95 towards Benson. Points to the west of that by 50 miles stand the best chance of accum. For those watching radar, if I was in western NC, I would be watching the batch coming up through Birmingham AL, and whatever builds to the nw of that. For those in the central part of the state, keep an eye on the trends to the west, as well as the flow through the FL panhandle, se AL, and the western half of GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Anyone have any info on the 00z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Please don't pull out the Intellicast maps. It's bad enough the Euro even let us down. Let's not let virga do the same. Lots of NWS radars show precip in and close to the radar so there isnt as much virga as you might think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Lots of NWS radars show precip in and close to the radar so there isnt as much virga as you might think. That's well and good but the Intellicast map does nobody any service. It always makes things look way more active than they actually are and leads to high weenie suicide rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 That's well and good but the Intellicast map does nobody any service. It always makes things look way more active than they actually are and leads to high weenie suicide rates. 100% agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSnowstorm Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Agreed...I think those radars have the sensitivity turned up to VERY HIGH levels...I have noticed this too throughout the years of watching that radar... That's well and good but the Intellicast map does nobody any service. It always makes things look way more active than they actually are and leads to high weenie suicide rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Agreed...I think those radars have the sensitivity turned up to VERY HIGH levels...I have noticed this too throughout the years of watching that radar... Its just a mosaic. All mosiacs show composite reflectivity which will show virga more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Anyone have any info on the 00z Euro? Bone dry at my location all the way through 12z Tuesday so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Bone dry at my location all the way through 12z Tuesday so far. How about RDU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 0.07 for the event at RDU but there's no way that'd stick...almost at 4c sfc temps to start which never drop below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 0.07 for the event at RDU but there's no way that'd stick...almost at 4c sfc temps to start which never drop below freezing. Not always the best idea to use a global model at this time range as there could be spin up issues with precipitation..etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 0.07 for the event at RDU but there's no way that'd stick...almost at 4c sfc temps to start which never drop below freezing. Worse than the GFS and NAM. To think that yesterday it was giving us an inch liquid, mostly snow. I just can't believe that the Euro could be so wrong in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The only place in the entire state that does ok is ECG but surface temps are warm and the precip probably is light enough to not drop them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Worse than the GFS and NAM. To think that yesterday it was giving us an inch liquid, mostly snow. I just can't believe that the Euro could be so wrong in the short range. Not sure how much you have paid attention, but it was giving me a big snow up here on Long Island as well as every other model and they all shifted east on the 00z runs. Its been model mayhem with this system from the get go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Not always the best idea to use a global model at this time range as there could be spin up issues with precipitation..etc. Oh I agree, just putting out the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The euro changed so drastically it makes you think it had to have got bad data or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Anyone have any info on the 00z Euro? hr 12 has a 1016 lp off the SC/NC coast, light precip across Ga., SC, and SE NC...hr 18 has a 1012 at panhandle Fl, precip still light in Ga., SC, and light precip making its way into RDU area, still no precip in Cha. yet...hr 24 has a 1012 lp off Wilmington, heavier precip in eastern third of NC, light precip back towards Cha., 850's look to warm, still light precip in SC/Ga....hr 30 precip edge right at RDU and 850's look to finally be cold enough and moisture is leaving...hr 36 there is a 1008 lp off the NC coast but to far OTS, some light precip over eastern NC. EDIT: Sorry Queencity I didn't know you have already replied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 Not always the best idea to use a global model at this time range as there could be spin up issues with precipitation..etc. Globals outside of 48 to get the general flavor, which we all know... Regionals inside that window with a global blend. Regionals (high res), namely RUC, NAM and various WRFs, in addition to nowcasting given a marginal type event inside 30 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 It would be awesome if the euro's made a short range model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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