Tullioz Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Frosty would be a happy snowman if this verifies Unfortunately up this way it is depicting only virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Aint got to worry about virga in Triad tonight with this freezing fog, unless their is some sort of mid-level dry layer. Triad and Triangle dont have to worry about ground temps either, with frozen ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Aint got to worry about virga in Triad tonight with this freezing fog, unless their is some sort of mid-level dry layer. Triad wont see any precipitation until daytime Saturday at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NegativeTilt Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Time to go get the bread,milk,beer,and steaks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 RUC shows very high UVV values over northern SC/southern NC. So yes. It's possible. Sorry if this is a dumb question, but what exactly does UVV mean? And why are high values good for temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Triad wont see any precipitation until daytime Saturday at the earliest. While we are waiting I thought you might like to see this rare photo of Brick as a child. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Triad wont see any precipitation until daytime Saturday at the earliest. Whats your past expierence with the Ruc. Is it good at sniffing out trends or more of a knee jerk model that reacts sporadically to sat/radar obs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Unfortunately up this way it is depicting only virga. How can you tell that it's just virga ? What's your thoughts for our area ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Aint got to worry about virga in Triad tonight with this freezing fog, unless their is some sort of mid-level dry layer. Looking at the RUC on the Twister site there does appear to be some really dry air at the 700mb level across the piedmont ant points East through at least 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 How can you tell that it's just virga ? What's your thoughts for our area ? Just posted this reply to NCSNOW, but Looking at the RUC on the Twister site there does appear to be some really dry air at the 700mb level across the piedmont ant points East through at least 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Whats your past expierence with the Ruc. Is it good at sniffing out trends or more of a knee jerk model that reacts sporadically to sat/radar obs? Ive seen it be poor and have seen it do well with trends. I would keep checking how its doing consistency wise specifially on the ncep site now that it is run to 18 hours every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSnowstorm Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 UVV stands for upward vertical velocities...if sufficient enough, these enhanced updrafts can help the aggregation process needed to generate snowflakes in the Bergeron region of the clouds...this process can help to overcome any additional heat that is near the ground because the snow would fall quick enough to overcome the 33/34 degree surface temperatures...this process quickly cools the boundary layer and allows for more snow to fall and stick (positive feedback). Sorry if this is a dumb question, but what exactly does UVV mean? And why are high values good for temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KO0588 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 how reliable is the RUC, looking at the 03z to 04z, seems like a lot of changes for 1 hour difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 how reliable is the RUC, looking at the 03z to 04z, seems like a lot of changes for 1 hour difference. Question was just answered a few posts above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 UVV stands for upward vertical velocities...if sufficient enough, these enhanced updrafts can help the aggregation process needed to generate snowflakes in the Bergeron region of the clouds...this process can help to overcome any additional heat that is near the ground because the snow would fall quick enough to overcome the 33/34 degree surface temperatures...this process quickly cools the boundary layer and allows for more snow to fall and stick (positive feedback). Oh ok. Thanks. So in essence those who are sitting under the high UVV values have a better shot at snow even with temps above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KO0588 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Question was just answered a few posts above. ha whoops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Looking at the 3z ruc on bufkit for hky, it show's .126 when it ends at 18 hours and it's still going. looks like it would be all snow too. surface temps quickly drop to freezing once it starts. going to be interesting to watch this tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 Oh ok. Thanks. So in essence those who are sitting under the high UVV values have a better shot at snow even with temps above freezing. I call them VV's, vertical velocity, as from the surface when going vertical, it is up. This is at the 700 mb level, roughly 10k ft up depending on pressure. That level is critical in saturation when forecasting heavy precip events, especially sn as the dendritic growth zone is above this. The higher the column above this level that is saturated, the higher the rates will be at the surface given the absence of mid level drying. VV's are a cause to the saturation aloft, as they take the warmer air in the mid levels and lift it to the upper levels, squeezing out the reaming water. Cause and effect type deal, vertical lift, and enhanced moisture through the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Looking at the 3z ruc on bufkit for hky, it show's .126 when it ends and it's still going. looks like it would be all snow too. surface temps quickly drop to freezing once it starts. going to be interesting to watch this tomorrow. If western NC sees a few inches of snow out of this I saw we toss the models out the window for the remainder of the winter and digress to using our finger in the air and our eyes in the sky because that may be our best models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSnowstorm Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I don't like the term "cause" here but you did an EXCELLENT job filling in the holes in my description...thanks... I call them VV's, vertical velocity, as from the surface when going vertical, it is up. This is at the 700 mb level, roughly 10k ft up depending on pressure. That level is critical in saturation when forecasting heavy precip events, especially sn as the dendritic growth zone is above this. The higher the column above this level that is saturated, the higher the rates will be at the surface given the absence of mid level drying. VV's are a cause to the saturation aloft, as they take the warmer air in the mid levels and lift it to the upper levels, squeezing out the reaming water. Cause and effect type deal, vertical lift, and enhanced moisture through the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I don't know if this is the right place to post this since we don't have an OBS Thread, but we've got freezing fog right now and 30 degrees. Got some ice forming on things out there and the porch was a little slippery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KO0588 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Van Denton posted this on his fb page: Anyone watching my weather report at 10 pm on Friday night hopefully got the idea that things could be more iffy than normal on Saturday regarding the Snow threat. It at least was my intent to convey that.My concern is the ground is still very cold, the low levels still very moist (note the freezing fog tonight) and now our Microcast model starts to show snow earlier tomorrow developing from the West across the Piedmont, in addition to the threat we had been talking about coming from the south. Earlier today, it had appeared the main threat would be the coastal system (and it may remain that way). Note, the coastal system is supposed to be weak and may have a hard time getting moisture as far north and west as the Triad. It has about a 40-50% of doing so. But, now we add the twist of possibly some measurable precip. from the west. It could be a bad Microcast model run. Or it could be an indicator of a surprise on Saturday. I remember a few years ago, this model the day before showed some snow, when there was NONE in the forecast. We ended up with a 2-4 inch surprise. Also, I will never forget the Jan 25, 2000 surprise. You know the one that hit Raleigh with a 20.3 inch 24 hour snow record after only Flurries to a dusting had been expected the day before with no advisories. That year was a La Nina year like this year. La Nina years are known more for surprises than El Nino or typical years. Remember the surprise 2 weeks ago. It is probably going to be that type of winter. There are good scientific reasons for those surprises too, but I will spare you the meteorological details. Just note, how good the snow forecast all went last year. El Nino years are much more predictable. Unfortunately, this is one time that I will not be able to keep you well up-to-date as I we will be traveling to visit with family for Christmas on Saturday. Just wanted to make sure everyone is prepared in case there are any surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 I don't like the term "cause" here but you did an EXCELLENT job filling in the holes in my description...thanks... Sorry, type fast and should taken more time to proof it. But I am not a pro, so it slides. Enhanced VV's aid in the moisture transport to the upper levels, period. That lift, significantly enhances moisture through the column, and more importantly the dendritic growth zone (during a winter weather event), baring you are not outside of that 850 line like me (and thickness supports a sn profile). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Van Denton posted this on his fb page: Wow very interesting, didnt realize that. Sucks to be a meteorologist this year I suppose. Fingers crossed for a surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVille Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Question. Why does NWS not show any chance of snow, but have a Special Weather Statement out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Van Denton posted this on his fb page: Very well written and lets everyone know that nothing is written in stone. I'd love for southern NC and northern SC to get some snow tomorrow, I've seen surprises before, but ive also seen where temps have been progged to be too warm...and theyve been too warm. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Ive seen it be poor and have seen it do well with trends. I would keep checking how its doing consistency wise specifially on the ncep site now that it is run to 18 hours every run. The RUC seems to do better with cut and dry situations than iffy ones...if that makes any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSnowstorm Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 GREAT...thanks for clarifying...I am a meteorology student so I am becoming more and more aware of what I say as a scientist...you definitely have to be careful...good clear, concise science is hard to find these days...thanks!!! Good luck on the event...maybe there will be some suprises...I am liking what I see over GA...I am not sure that the models actually analyzed this much latent heat release down there so it will be interesting to see if those wetter runs verify or not...hmmmm.... Sorry, type fast and should take more time to proof it. But I am not a pro, so it slides. Enhanced VV's aid in the moisture transport to the upper levels, period. That lift, significantly enhances moisture through the column, and more importantly the dendritic growth zone (during a winter weather event), baring you are not outside of that 850 line like me (and thickness supports a sn profile). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 00z WRF looks "off"? Radar doesn't match initialization. http://www.nco.ncep....sw_ref_006l.gif http://images.intell...a_None_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 GREAT...thanks for clarifying...I am a meteorology student so I am becoming more and more aware of what I say as a scientist...you definitely have to be careful...good clear, concise science is hard to find these days...thanks!!! Good luck on the event...maybe there will be some suprises...I am liking what I see over GA...I am not sure that the models actually analyzed this much latent heat release down there so it will be interesting to see if those wetter runs verify or not...hmmmm.... Where to you go to school? There's only three meteorology schools in NC, I think, so it's not out of the realm of possibility you go to NCSU! And, if you're a freshman then you're in the same class I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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