WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 18z NAM Accumulated Snowfall (using 10:1 ratio) using total precip, snow flag 18z NAM Accum Snowfall using sing Mr. Evan Kuchera algorithm for snow to liquid ratio (more accurate imo) Legend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I have a feeling if the NAM verifies it will over perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 BTW love the title of the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 BTW love the title of the thread i just noticed it - obviously i have nothing better to do this friday afternoon since by all accounts we are out of the game but just oh-so-close and here i am watching the stupid nam run i would gladly take any flakes...since most i have seen are flurries or light snow...with the infamous tiny ga snow flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I've already got the carrot, scarf, and hat sitting by the door to outfit my huge, bulging, snowman tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Where is Robert? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 You sound like me man. I've already got the carrot, scarf, and hat sitting by the door to outfit my huge, bulging, snowman tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 i just noticed it - obviously i have nothing better to do this friday afternoon since by all accounts we are out of the game but just oh-so-close and here i am watching the stupid nam run Are you sure your soundings are no good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Where is Robert? he didnt see the nam, was already out drinking away his sorrows Are you sure your soundings are no good? no, not really. i was sort of surprised when i saw them as i thought it'd look better. however, i can easily zip to nc tomorrow if need be. its a saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Where is Robert? Lying on the floor in a drunken stupor at the thought of all his wx weenie friends jumping off cliffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 255 PM EST FRI DEC 17 2010 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion --WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND TRACK JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY... FOR TONIGHT: OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE STUBBORN STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT IS FINALLY MIXING OUT. WHILE THESE CLOUDS HAVE HELPED HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FROM GSO OVER TO DURHAM AND HENDERSON AND DOWN TOWARD SOUTHERN PINES... READINGS HAVE PEAKED IN THE (COMPARATIVELY) BALMY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SRN CWA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NNE SURFACE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LIGHT FLOW... THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL AND GROUND MOISTURE... STILL FAIRLY HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS... AND MINIMAL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL FACILITATE RADIATIONAL COOLING... ALL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY VERY SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE AND WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AS MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWRLY... WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION AS PATCHY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT LOWS OF 25-32... ON THE COOL END OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONSIDERING THE DEARTH OF CLOUD COVER. FOR SATURDAY: MID CLOUDS STEADILY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AN INCOMING SLUG OF MOISTURE ON THE 310K SURFACE AS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SE STATES BECOMES SWRLY AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR S AND SSE WHERE SURFACE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO LOWER AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES HERE. THE UPPER JET OVER THE MIDATLANTIC THIS MORNING SHIFTS ENE RESULTING IN GREATER (BUT STILL NOT STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER/OFF THE SE COAST... AND WEAK VORTICITY NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ROTATES ACROSS VA/NC PROVIDING MID LEVEL DPVA. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE MODERATE... ON THE ORDER OF 50 M / 12 HRS... AS IS THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT 295K AND 300K. ALL TOLD... THIS RESULTS IN WEAK TO MODERATE LIFT OVER/OFF THE SE COAST SATURDAY. WHILE SURFACE PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP JUST OFF THE NC/SC/GA COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... THE LACK OF A STRONG FOCUSED LIFT SHOULD KEEP THE LOW PRESSURE RATHER WEAK INITIALLY. BUT THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SATURATE FROM TOP TO BOTTOM... SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH... THROUGH THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WILL SEE THE FIRST CHANCES OF PRECIP... AND BASED ON THE VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS... IT SHOULD BEGIN AS JUST RAIN IN THIS AREA BUT MAY BE MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET AT ONSET UNTIL THE LOW LEVELS WARM UP. AS THE PRECIP SPREADS NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME NEAR-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL IN THE LOWEST 3 KM WITH SATURATION UP THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION ALOFT. THIS SORT OF SCENARIO POSES PROBLEMS AS THE PRECIP TYPE - EITHER RAIN OR SNOW - DEPENDS GREATLY ON THE LIFT AND PRECIP RATE... WITH A BURST OF STRONG LIFT RESULTING IN COLUMN COOLING AND A SWITCH OF PRECIP TO MOSTLY SNOW. BUT CONSIDERING THAT CURRENTLY THE FORCING MECHANISMS DO NOT FAVOR STRONG CONCENTRATED LIFT... WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS A BROAD CORRIDOR OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CWA... EXCEPT JUST RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA (FAYETTEVILLE/CLINTON/GOLDSBORO TO THE SE) AND PRIMARILY VERY LIGHT SNOW FARTHER NW TOWARD THE TRIAD (ALTHOUGH HERE THE MODELS - INCLUDING SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP - SHOW ONLY VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES). WILL TREND POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL IN THE FAR SE CWA... TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST TOWARD GSO. HIGHS 38-41. -GIH-- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AFTER 00Z SUN...THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEING THE HANDING OF THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW AND HOW RAPIDLY THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. THIS EXPLAINS THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW AS FAR INLAND AS CENTRAL NC. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ON SAT/SUN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN IS DECREASING. THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF CENTRAL NC DRY ON SAT/SUN (MAYBE 0.10" IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AND PERHAPS A TRACE AT RDU)...WHILE THE 12Z GFS (AND TO A LESSER DEGREE NAM) SHOW A GOOD 0.25-0.50" OF STORM TOTAL QPF MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 TO THE COAST. THE GFS REMAINS ONE OF THE WETTER MODELS FOR NC AND ITS HIGHER QPF THIS FAR WEST IS DUE TO ITS HANDING OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL DIG SOUTH. THE GFS BRINGS THE ENERGY AND LIFT IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NC WHILE THE NAM...ECMWF AND SREF KEEP THE BULK OF THE ENERGY FURTHER NORTH OVER VA. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION PAINTING A LITTLE LESS OVERALL QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MORE OF A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. MOST OF THE MODELS NOW END THE PRECIP AROUND 12Z IN THE TRIANGLE AND 15Z IN THE EAST NEAR ROCKY MOUNT AND ROANOKE RAPIDS. WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS...THE NAM...GFS AND SREF HAVE SIMILAR THERMAL STRUCTURES SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. THE NAM LOSES THE SATURATION AT -10 TO -20 AROUND 03Z WHILE THE GFS WITH MORE LIFT DOES NOT DRY OUT THE ICE GROWTH LAYER UNTIL AFTER 06Z ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST NEAR RWI. SO ALL MODELS GREATLY DECREASE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FROM 03Z-06Z DIFFERING ONLY BY A FEW HOURS REGARDING WHEN THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM THE TRIANGLE...NORTH AND EAST...WHERE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A NEAR-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYER WITH SOME PERIODS OF ALL SNOW THROUGH 03Z. DUE TO THE NEAR FREEZING ISOTHERMAL NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE PRECIPITATION RATES MAY DRIVE P-TYPE TO SOME DEGREE. DURING PERIODS OF LIGHTER PRECIP THE SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX WITH RAIN...HOWEVER... DURING OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF HEAVIER PRECIP THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 DEGREES MEANS ACCUMULATION MAY NOT BE VERY EFFICIENT ON ROAD SURFACES INITIALLY...BUT SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE READILY ON GRASSY SURFACES. THE OCCASIONAL BURST OF SNOW HOWEVER COULD SUPPORT A QUICK DUSTING ON ROADS IN LOCATIONS FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST ESPECIALLY FROM SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERALL ACCUMULATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS...BUT IF BURSTS OF SNOW LAST FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WILL INDICATE LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S (NW) TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF/SE COAST. SUNDAY: SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR IN THE WEST AS THE SURFACE LOW PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION AND A DRIER NWLY FLOW SETS IN. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLOW TO SCOUR WITH A CONTINUED NELY FLOW. WILL KEEP HIGH SUNDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NE TO AROUND 40 IN THE TRIANGLE AND TRIAD.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 RAH and their damn science Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 For GA,SC... you can forget about it if you live on the lee side of the mountains below 1500 feet. This will be just like the March1,2009 snowstorm where we will have a warm pocket of low level air on the lee side of the apps screwing us. The only chance for accumulating snow would start maybe around spartanburg and north/east from there. NeGA, i think you'll at least have a shot at 1500 feet. Anybody in the GA,SC, NC mountains about 3000 feet will definitely not have a problem.. it'll just be a matter of how much moisture you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't think I've ever seen a discussion like that one from RAH that says so much but really says so little. It seems they just included everything possible but have no clue what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Updated my post at the top of the page with the 18z NAM SN maps from Earl Barker's site. Both are blank here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Updated my post at the top of the page with the 18z NAM SN maps from Earl Barker's site. Both are blank here I can see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I like the first one the best when I checked them it must of been based off of the old 18z NAM data as it just had a little strip on RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Where is Robert? He might be out scouting the different train tracks in the area since Lookout's ledge is full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 255 PM EST FRI DEC 17 2010 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion --WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND TRACK JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY... FOR TONIGHT: OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE STUBBORN STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT IS FINALLY MIXING OUT. WHILE THESE CLOUDS HAVE HELPED HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FROM GSO OVER TO DURHAM AND HENDERSON AND DOWN TOWARD SOUTHERN PINES... READINGS HAVE PEAKED IN THE (COMPARATIVELY) BALMY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SRN CWA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NNE SURFACE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LIGHT FLOW... THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL AND GROUND MOISTURE... STILL FAIRLY HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS... AND MINIMAL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL FACILITATE RADIATIONAL COOLING... ALL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY VERY SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE AND WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AS MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWRLY... WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION AS PATCHY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT LOWS OF 25-32... ON THE COOL END OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONSIDERING THE DEARTH OF CLOUD COVER. FOR SATURDAY: MID CLOUDS STEADILY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AN INCOMING SLUG OF MOISTURE ON THE 310K SURFACE AS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SE STATES BECOMES SWRLY AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR S AND SSE WHERE SURFACE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO LOWER AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES HERE. THE UPPER JET OVER THE MIDATLANTIC THIS MORNING SHIFTS ENE RESULTING IN GREATER (BUT STILL NOT STRONG) UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER/OFF THE SE COAST... AND WEAK VORTICITY NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ROTATES ACROSS VA/NC PROVIDING MID LEVEL DPVA. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE MODERATE... ON THE ORDER OF 50 M / 12 HRS... AS IS THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT 295K AND 300K. ALL TOLD... THIS RESULTS IN WEAK TO MODERATE LIFT OVER/OFF THE SE COAST SATURDAY. WHILE SURFACE PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP JUST OFF THE NC/SC/GA COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... THE LACK OF A STRONG FOCUSED LIFT SHOULD KEEP THE LOW PRESSURE RATHER WEAK INITIALLY. BUT THE COLUMN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SATURATE FROM TOP TO BOTTOM... SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH... THROUGH THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WILL SEE THE FIRST CHANCES OF PRECIP... AND BASED ON THE VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS... IT SHOULD BEGIN AS JUST RAIN IN THIS AREA BUT MAY BE MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET AT ONSET UNTIL THE LOW LEVELS WARM UP. AS THE PRECIP SPREADS NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME NEAR-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL IN THE LOWEST 3 KM WITH SATURATION UP THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION ALOFT. THIS SORT OF SCENARIO POSES PROBLEMS AS THE PRECIP TYPE - EITHER RAIN OR SNOW - DEPENDS GREATLY ON THE LIFT AND PRECIP RATE... WITH A BURST OF STRONG LIFT RESULTING IN COLUMN COOLING AND A SWITCH OF PRECIP TO MOSTLY SNOW. BUT CONSIDERING THAT CURRENTLY THE FORCING MECHANISMS DO NOT FAVOR STRONG CONCENTRATED LIFT... WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS A BROAD CORRIDOR OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CWA... EXCEPT JUST RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA (FAYETTEVILLE/CLINTON/GOLDSBORO TO THE SE) AND PRIMARILY VERY LIGHT SNOW FARTHER NW TOWARD THE TRIAD (ALTHOUGH HERE THE MODELS - INCLUDING SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP - SHOW ONLY VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES). WILL TREND POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL IN THE FAR SE CWA... TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST TOWARD GSO. HIGHS 38-41. -GIH-- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AFTER 00Z SUN...THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEING THE HANDING OF THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW AND HOW RAPIDLY THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. THIS EXPLAINS THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW AS FAR INLAND AS CENTRAL NC. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ON SAT/SUN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN IS DECREASING. THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF CENTRAL NC DRY ON SAT/SUN (MAYBE 0.10" IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AND PERHAPS A TRACE AT RDU)...WHILE THE 12Z GFS (AND TO A LESSER DEGREE NAM) SHOW A GOOD 0.25-0.50" OF STORM TOTAL QPF MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 TO THE COAST. THE GFS REMAINS ONE OF THE WETTER MODELS FOR NC AND ITS HIGHER QPF THIS FAR WEST IS DUE TO ITS HANDING OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL DIG SOUTH. THE GFS BRINGS THE ENERGY AND LIFT IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NC WHILE THE NAM...ECMWF AND SREF KEEP THE BULK OF THE ENERGY FURTHER NORTH OVER VA. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION PAINTING A LITTLE LESS OVERALL QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MORE OF A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. MOST OF THE MODELS NOW END THE PRECIP AROUND 12Z IN THE TRIANGLE AND 15Z IN THE EAST NEAR ROCKY MOUNT AND ROANOKE RAPIDS. WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS...THE NAM...GFS AND SREF HAVE SIMILAR THERMAL STRUCTURES SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. THE NAM LOSES THE SATURATION AT -10 TO -20 AROUND 03Z WHILE THE GFS WITH MORE LIFT DOES NOT DRY OUT THE ICE GROWTH LAYER UNTIL AFTER 06Z ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST NEAR RWI. SO ALL MODELS GREATLY DECREASE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FROM 03Z-06Z DIFFERING ONLY BY A FEW HOURS REGARDING WHEN THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM THE TRIANGLE...NORTH AND EAST...WHERE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A NEAR-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYER WITH SOME PERIODS OF ALL SNOW THROUGH 03Z. DUE TO THE NEAR FREEZING ISOTHERMAL NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE PRECIPITATION RATES MAY DRIVE P-TYPE TO SOME DEGREE. DURING PERIODS OF LIGHTER PRECIP THE SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX WITH RAIN...HOWEVER... DURING OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF HEAVIER PRECIP THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 DEGREES MEANS ACCUMULATION MAY NOT BE VERY EFFICIENT ON ROAD SURFACES INITIALLY...BUT SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE READILY ON GRASSY SURFACES. THE OCCASIONAL BURST OF SNOW HOWEVER COULD SUPPORT A QUICK DUSTING ON ROADS IN LOCATIONS FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST ESPECIALLY FROM SUNSET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERALL ACCUMULATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS...BUT IF BURSTS OF SNOW LAST FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WILL INDICATE LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S (NW) TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF/SE COAST. SUNDAY: SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR IN THE WEST AS THE SURFACE LOW PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION AND A DRIER NWLY FLOW SETS IN. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLOW TO SCOUR WITH A CONTINUED NELY FLOW. WILL KEEP HIGH SUNDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NE TO AROUND 40 IN THE TRIANGLE AND TRIAD.-- End Changed Discussion -- Well dont look good for me then maybe a little better for u but not for me. Guess im to far south for anything but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Updated my post at the top of the page with the 18z NAM SN maps from Earl Barker's site. Both are blank here Looks like 2 to 3 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 When the 18z NAM shows nothing, throw it out cause it never verifies...when it shows money it's time to take it to the bank! Now lets see if the 18z GFS follows suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well dont look good for me then maybe a little better for u but not for me. Guess im to far south for anything but rain. Yup...RAH isn't holding much hope for the south side... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 When the 18z NAM shows nothing, throw it out cause it never verifies...when it shows money it's time to take it to the bank! Now lets see if the 18z GFS follows suite. So true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 I can see them. To your west? Good disco out of RAH, don't like it, but based on fact not subjective wants... The RN-SN line looks to be from Elizabeth City to Rocky Mount, and than south towards you. All points to the west of that stand a chance of seeing some flakes given heavier returns. The models have been very consistent on totally placing me out of the game for dendrites, and I believe you have a better chance than me with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 That disco out of RAH was from 2:55. They hadn't seen the NAM yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 To your west? Good disco out of RAH, don't like it, but based on fact not subjective wants... The RN-SN line looks to be from Elizabeth City to Rocky Mount, and than south towards you. All points to the west of that stand a chance of seeing some flakes given heavier returns. The models have been very consistent on totally placing me out of the game for dendrites, and I believe you have a better chance than me with this one. It seemed from your post you were saying you couldn't see the images, which I think is what eyewall was saying. I even posted something similar until I realized you were saying you had no snow over you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 It seemed from your post you were saying you couldn't see the images, which I think is what eyewall was saying. I even posted something similar until I realized you were saying you had no snow over you. I should have clarified when saying "blank here," with 0" of accum. Good luck out that way, as it is overdue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 18z NAM = Hope for you NC posters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GFS is processing....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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