snowlover2 Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 SPC is hinting at the possibility of significant severe weather to kick off August. DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0406 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2013 VALID 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER WILL REMAIN PROMINENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN A CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF MIGRATING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL THEN EVENTUALLY MIGRATE AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...INTO AND THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION...AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS WITHIN ANOTHER STREAM OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO LEAD TO SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPENING OF BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...VERY WARM AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FROM THE PLATEAU REGION IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ABOVE A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE APPEARS AN INCREASING SIGNAL... PARTICULARLY IN THE 28/00Z ECMWF...FOR THE POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY /EASTERN SD AND NEB INTO WRN IA/ THURSDAY NIGHT... BEFORE PERHAPS CONTINUING ACROSS IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS...INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...THE ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO A CONSIDERABLE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...CERTAINTY IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO OUTLOOK THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES NECESSARY TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME. ..KERR.. 07/28/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Somewhat surprised to see this detailed a heads up this far out. Will just have to wait on later runs and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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