Geos Posted August 12, 2013 Author Share Posted August 12, 2013 Its like the "big cold" on the models last winter... Just keep kicking that can down the road. Exactly what I was thinking! Hit 79 today. Kinda humid today too, but not too bad. Only 4 80s this entire month so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 zzzzzzzz. But very nice weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 zzzzzzzz. ^^^This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 13, 2013 Author Share Posted August 13, 2013 Cooling off slowly but surely this evening. Drier air is really taking it's sweet time! 0.04" of rain today from early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 After a rainy day, temps cooler than forecast (spent most of day in the 60s, managed to briefly spike to 74 in the late afternoon) had some heavy storms in the evening, among the best Ive seen this year. The below pics are essentially the same storm, but the first was taken by my sister in Ann Arbor, and the next was taken by me in Wyandotte over an hour later. The sky was so wicked I wish I had grabbed my regular camera, instead of my phone. The fact that it was dusk made the pictures turn out less impressive but the actual in-person visual was amazing. It looked like a spaceship in the sky lol. Didnt measure total rainfall yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Another pic of the Ann Arbor cell, as I posted in the severe wx thread. Quality storm. Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 13, 2013 Author Share Posted August 13, 2013 Great pics coming out of MI tonight! Wow; forecast low here tomorrow night is 50°/51°. NAM Hires probably off its rocker regarding MI lows! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Typically in mid August there would at least be something interesting to watch in the tropics, but it's as dead down there as it is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 DTW finished the day at 2.46" which breaks the old daily record of 2.16" set in 1908. Summer total is up to 12.65". This currently ranks as the 19th wettest summer in Detroit records even if there is no additional precip in August. The pretty cell pictured above did go over DTW as well, which made up 0.93" of the day's total. The co-op observer nearest me reported 2.93 inches, about 10x the forecast QPF. EDITED 8/13 to correct totals and rankings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 13, 2013 Author Share Posted August 13, 2013 There's been some talk of a pattern change in the medium range, but the CFS is not showing any big recovery in the departures for the rest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 ^Nice pics from the MI guys. Point has nary a drop of rain in the forecast through at least next Monday. Haven't seen an official point forecast that free of pops in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 There's been some talk of a pattern change in the medium range, but the CFS is not showing any big recovery in the departures for the rest of the month. The GFS Ensembles appear to indicate a ridge building in during the 6-10 day period, so unfortunately I do think there will be a warm up, perhaps significant, from next weekend and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 There's been some talk of a pattern change in the medium range, but the CFS is not showing any big recovery in the departures for the rest of the month. I think CFS is going to be wrong on this, both GFS and ECMWF are showing a warmup in the mid to long range along with their ensembles. Good run to run consistency as well, I don't think it will be some sort of mind blowing warmup but I do think above average temps are starting to look likely after the 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 I think CFS is going to be wrong on this, both GFS and ECMWF are showing a warmup in the mid to long range along with their ensembles. Good run to run consistency as well, I don't think it will be some sort of mind blowing warmup but I do think above average temps are starting to look likely after the 17th. Euro weeklies also show above normal temps for next week across the region. Atleast north of i-70 with the warmest departures just north of the lakes in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Brrrr..... APX: NOT ENTIRELY SOLD ON JUST HOW COLDREADINGS BECOME TONIGHT...WITH CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAININGJUST UPSTREAM. WILL NUDGE INHERITED LOWS DOWN A TOUCH...INTRODUCINGNEAR 40 DEGREE READINGS IN THE TRADITIONAL ICE BOX LOCATIONS(GRAYLING...ATLANTA...AND SUCH). IF FULL DECOUPLING ISREALIZED...THESE READINGS WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH TO "WARM"...WITHSOME MID AND UPPER 30S DEFINITELY PLAUSIBLE. EITHER WAY...ANOTHERCHILLY MID AUGUST NIGHT FOR THE NORTH WOODS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Impressive CAA occurring right now, MKE is sitting at 55. Tonight could be the coldest night this summer as MKE possibly flirts with upper 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Had a thunderstorm last night that poured buckets for a short amount of time. Northeast parts of the area almost picked up an inch. Lafayette 2.2 NE: 0.93" West Lafayette 2.8 NNE: 0.88" LAF: 0.48" West Lafayette 5.1 WSW: 0.38" Lafayette 2.2 S: 0.32" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 The medium range call is easy...continued temperate to cool with a pronounced warming trend starting mid fall and carrying through the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Had a thunderstorm last night that poured buckets for a short amount of time. Northeast parts of the area almost picked up an inch. Lafayette 2.2 NE: 0.93" West Lafayette 2.8 NNE: 0.88" LAF: 0.48" West Lafayette 5.1 WSW: 0.38" Lafayette 2.2 S: 0.32" Quite the range across the area. It actually got surprisingly windy as the storms rolled through. Wasn't expecting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 DTW finished the day at 2.46" which breaks the old daily record of 2.16" set in 1908. Summer total is up to 12.65". This currently ranks as the 19th wettest summer in Detroit records even if there is no additional precip in August. The pretty cell pictured above did go over DTW as well, which made up 0.93" of the day's total. The co-op observer nearest me reported 2.93 inches, about 10x the forecast QPF. EDITED 8/13 to correct totals and rankings. It was another good old i94 thrashing. I had 1.83", YIP had 2.45", DTW 2.46", ARB 2.66". Highest total I found was 3.25" in Milan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Nice storm shots from MI. Looks like some good sup structure. Noon and 66/53 here today after weak fropa last night. Barely enough to wet the ground here, regions to the south had a lot more rain and thunder. Good light show in the backyard around midnight. Cleared out around 330am and got to see a few Perseids from my backyard, but light pollution prevented me from seeing more. Drove out to Elora, ON Saturday night for darkness and meteors. Caught a few great fireballs. Very clear sky that night. Anyone else catch anything? How were viewing conditions for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 13, 2013 Author Share Posted August 13, 2013 Impressive CAA occurring right now, MKE is sitting at 55. Tonight could be the coldest night this summer as MKE possibly flirts with upper 40's. Yeah it's chilly out there now with the wind! Only 64° here at 11am. Hit 54° at 7 am this morning here. Gusts over 20 mph. 50° forecast here tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 The medium range call is easy...continued temperate to cool with a pronounced warming trend starting mid fall and carrying through the winter. Copter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Copter It'd be nice to know why he's thinking what he's thinking. It's very early but there's nothing that points toward a particularly warm winter at this point. I guess I'd be a bit concerned about the rubber band effect...this mostly below average regime has been around for quite a while and you'd figure it will find a way to break at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Yeah it's chilly out there now with the wind! Only 64° here at 11am. Hit 54° at 7 am this morning here. Gusts over 20 mph. 50° forecast here tonight. This weather is awesome. With 850 temps at 6c, sfc temps will only climb a few more degrees this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Had a thunderstorm last night that poured buckets for a short amount of time. Northeast parts of the area almost picked up an inch. Lafayette 2.2 NE: 0.93" West Lafayette 2.8 NNE: 0.88" LAF: 0.48" West Lafayette 5.1 WSW: 0.38" Lafayette 2.2 S: 0.32" Congrats. Meanwhile, the total in Huntington, 0.00". The line parted like the Red Sea as it approached. No rain in the forecast for the next 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 13, 2013 Author Share Posted August 13, 2013 65/48 right now at the noon obs. Some clouds passing on by on the NNE wind. The longer the heat up is pushed forward, the less intense it should be. Lost about 75 minutes of daylight since the Solstice. Will see how this plays out... predicted upper air flow on Sunday and departures in Chicagoland for the 1-2 week range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 round abouts 2.5"-2.75" of rain here yesterday based on local reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 It'd be nice to know why he's thinking what he's thinking. It's very early but there's nothing that points toward a particularly warm winter at this point. I guess I'd be a bit concerned about the rubber band effect...this mostly below average regime has been around for quite a while and you'd figure it will find a way to break at some point.Just the annual lets call for a warm winter to rile the board. I always have an underlying concern we are due for several more stinker winters (we had one, 2011-12, after a 4 year snow blitz) but everything ive heard so far points to a decent to good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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