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August 2013 General Discussion


Geos

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It would matter in November or December but this is early August. The Great Lakes temperature anomalies can change very quickly.

 

Johndee wrote about this. Lake Superior can go from record warm anomaly to average in one weekend. The top 1% of the lake is where the heat is held, it gets churned out the first big windstorm in November.

 

Being cold to start might matter more, but the end result is that the lake temps never vary by much when the winter finally gets here.

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Regarding lake temperatures - I think if the lakes stay below normal this month and next month overall and then we get a regular amount of wind storms in the autumn, then that will give members living near the lake an opportunity to see snow earlier. A lot of times around here it is too warm for snow near the lake to begin the season when the winds are onshore. Maybe this year the period of time for mixing and rain events near the lake will be shorter. If we have a normal or colder than normal winter then I could see the LES season ending earlier than normal due to increased ice coverage. 

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Regarding lake temperatures - I think if the lakes below normal this month and next month overall and then we get a regular amount of wind storms in the autumn, then that will give members living near the lake an opportunity to see snow earlier. A lot of times around here it is too warm for snow near the lake to begin the season when the winds are onshore. Maybe this year the period of time for mixing and rain events near the lake will be shorter. If we have a normal or colder than normal winter then I could see the LES season ending earlier than normal due to increased ice coverage. 

 

 

meh, no matter what the lake will be relatively warm and influence any borderline events early in the season. This whole discussion is a non-starter.

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meh, no matter what the lake will be relatively warm and influence any borderline events early in the season. This whole discussion is a non-starter.

 

It's just my take on it. We have a better chance at a earlier snow (if there is onshore winds) if we don't torch in October and into November though!

 

Up to 80° here.

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Regarding lake temperatures - I think if the lakes stay below normal this month and next month overall and then we get a regular amount of wind storms in the autumn, then that will give members living near the lake an opportunity to see snow earlier. A lot of times around here it is too warm for snow near the lake to begin the season when the winds are onshore. Maybe this year the period of time for mixing and rain events near the lake will be shorter. If we have a normal or colder than normal winter then I could see the LES season ending earlier than normal due to increased ice coverage.

I think the time where it could make the biggest difference would be roughly the first half of December. Before that, a cooler than average lake might still be too warm and it seems like the influence of lake warmth usually wanes after that...so early/mid December may be the time to benefit if lake temps are running cooler than average and the right kind of system comes along.

Regarding LES production, I wouldn't worry too much downwind of Lake Michigan and especially for those long fetch northerly flow events. I cannot recall ice being a huge factor in the past.

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Hey Milwaukee folks. You all are getting a good weekend anchor and reporter by the name of Toni Valliere on WISN I believe. She was one of our anchors down here and has been down here for the last 9 years. She's a sweet lady, and I'm sure at some point they'll mention the Joplin tornado and her coverage of it. 

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