August 2013 General Discussion

[Geos]

Usually in the immediate area, the 90° chances drop off considerably after the first few days of September. By the 10th the chances are really slim.

 

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Schaumburg Stormer- enjoy the trip to Italy! That's awesome.

[Harry]

79 at both RAC and MKE. This makes the 10th straight day of a high below 80 at MKE. Better chance to break the streak tomorrow with warmer 850 temps but the possibility of more clouds.

 

Day 9 here with a high of 77 and full sun.

 

Next 7 days.. Per GRR.

    Overnight Mostly clear, with a low around 56. Southwest wind around 6 mph.
    Friday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Southwest wind 11 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
    Friday Night A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Southwest wind 6 to 10 mph.
    Saturday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Light north wind becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
    Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. West wind 5 to 11 mph.
    Sunday Sunny, with a high near 74.
    Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.
    Monday A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 75.
    Monday Night A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.
    Tuesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76.
    Tuesday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59.
    Wednesday A slight chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.
    Wednesday Night A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57.
    Thursday A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 74.

No 80s in sight. Amazing stuff.

[daddylonglegs]

Nice little lightning show...some rain falling...heavier stuff just to the south...nice evening overall..  

[Chicago Storm]

Usually in the immediate area, the 90° chances drop off considerably after the first few days of September. By the 10th the chances are really slim.

More like mid-September.

 

Obviously talking about extremes, but records for Chicago still range anywhere from 95-101 through the 15th...After that point is the drop off.

[Geos]

More like mid-September.

 

Obviously talking about extremes, but records for Chicago still range anywhere from 95-101 through the 15th...After that point is the drop off.

 

I figured I was off. In the last decade when I've been paying the most attention to temperature stats - that's when it seems like the chances drop off. We've had some close calls with 90° into October in recent memory.

 

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Little severe action tonight in SW WI.

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI1030 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013WIC043-103-020415-/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-130802T0415Z/GRANT WI-RICHLAND WI-1030 PM CDT THU AUG 1 2013...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERNRICHLAND AND NORTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...AT 1027 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OFMUSCODA...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...  MUSCODA AROUND 1040 PM CDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE HIGHWAY 80 AND COUNTY Y...ORION AND COUNTY ROADS O AND O O.ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED IN NORTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY JUSTNORTH OF HIGHWAY 18 NEAR THE TOWN OF MONFORT. IT IS LIKELY PRODUCINGHAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF ABUILDING.

[Hoosier]

All I remember is this...

2007: 15

3 of which were in Oct

But hey, the following winter rocked.

Yeah, October was sick. It's hard enough to get one 90 degree day in that month but we had 3 in a row.

[Brewers]

Decided to look back and see how many other times MKE had a 10+ day streak of sub 80 degree highs between 07/15-08/15. Most of these occurred back in the 1800's and early 1900's.  It happened twice in 1889 which only had 25, 80+ degree highs the entire year.

 

07/28/1889 - 08/15/1889 (19)

07/20/1905 - 08/04/1905 (16)

07/31/1924 - 08/15/1924 (16)

07/24/1925 - 08/08/1925 (16)

07/16/1872 - 08/05/1873 (15)

07/29/1912 - 08/12/1912 (15)

08/02/1883 - 08/15/1883 (14)

07/26/1875 - 08/07/1875 (13)

08/04/1903 - 08/15/1903 (12)

08/01/1972 - 08/12/1972 (12)

07/26/1873 - 08/05/1873 (11)

08/01/1885 - 08/11/1885 (11)

07/29/1886 - 08/08/1886 (11)

07/15/1889 - 07/25/1889 (11)

07/22/1926 - 08/01/1926 (11)

08/03/1942 - 08/13/1942 (11)

07/24/1996 - 08/03/1996 (11)

07/28/1882 - 08/06/1882 (10)

08/06/1908 - 08/15/1908 (10)

08/04/1967 - 08/13/1967 (10)

07/23/2013 - 08/01/2013 (10)

[Stebo]

All I remember is this...

 

2007: 15

 

3 of which were in Oct 

 

But hey, the following winter rocked.

 

I'll take a repeat of 07's fall lots of severe and warm weather that lead into a great winter for snow for the region.

[Geos]

According to my point and click forecast, the sub 80° streak will extend at least another 7 days. If tomorrow can avoid 80, then I think there's a good shot at tacking on at least another 5 days.

 

Storms to the west about to slide east of I-39/90.

[A-L-E-K]

really nice storms this mornings...clearing up nicely and ahead of schedule, looking decent for another round later or a near miss to the south

[Geos]

Nice rain this morning. Very little in the way of thunder though. Picked up 0.35" of rain.

 

Edit: Fairly narrow corridors with the heaviest totals.

 

[A-L-E-K]

had a bunch of thunder here, probably close to an inch

[Geos]

Pretty good rain storm on the north side of Kenosha now. Few flashes of lightning.

[Brewers]

Cold front hasn't cleared far SE WI yet but weak CAA is already occurring at 850mb. The sub 80 degree streak may live on.

[MidwestChaser]

Good heavy rain even this morning. Picked up 3 quarters of an inch in less than an hour.

[hm8]

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF I-69 AND MOVE EAST AT 35 MPH...BUT ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HAS A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH 9PM. THE
THREAT WILL THEN COME TO AN END AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1052 AM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

.UPDATE...

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS COMBINED WITH NEW MODEL RUNS
INCREASE CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. BROAD UPPER LOW ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY IS BOTH
STREAMING IMPULSES THROUGH THE REGION AND PROVIDING COOL UPPER AIR
TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN LAPSE RATES AT 9-10 C/KM FROM THE SFC
TO H7. HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT STILL INDICATED IN MODEL
RUNS IS LIKELY TO BE AUGMENTED NORTH OF I-69 AS VIS SATELLITE
SHOWS DECENT CLEARING. ALSO OBS INDICATE A DIURNAL TEMP CURVE
LOOKING LIKE LOW 80S IN THAT REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHER
CAPE VALUES THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED (1000-1750 J/KG). THOUGH THE
12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS TWO INVERSIONS AND WARM AIR IN THE H7 TO H5
LAYER...WE WILL BE INHERITING THE APX AIRMASS WHICH HAS A MUCH
LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMP AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALL THE WAY UP TO THE
28KFT EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL. STORM TYPE FAVORED IN THE 18-00Z HOURS
LOOKS TO BE LP SUPERCELLS NORTH...WITH MORE BANDING/LINE SEGMENTS
CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE 21-01Z SOUTH OF I-69. STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS OVER 60 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN THREATS
ACROSS THE CWA.

[harrisale]

Severe watches out for the SW portion of the province. May chase simply because things have been dull storm wise lately but LCLs don't look great and dew point is quite low. 40-60kts of shear and a lake breeze might do something but I have a gut feeling today will be a bust.

[A-L-E-K]

I88 and south in IL getting close...CU looking robust

[Geos]

At 78°, with more clouds spilling in from the NW.

[Hoosier]

High of 83 so far. Typical summer day.

[A-L-E-K]

At 78°, with more clouds spilling in from the NW.

 

 

dang, 84 bank clock...can't wait for the front to slip through.

[Brewers]

MKE has made it 80.

[A-L-E-K]

cells blowing up overhead

[Jonger]

I'm at 7 days under 80F... Could go as many as 7-10 more days under 80. Very hard to do during JJA.

[Geos]

dang, 84 bank clock...can't wait for the front to slip through.

 

Darn the streak ended.   80/81° outside.

 

Early morning convection put a damper on any further activity up this way.

[Chicago Storm]

Early morning convection put a damper on any further activity up this way.

Storms are developing along/ahead of the cold front.

 

Morning activity has nothing to do with it.

[Geos]

Storms are developing along/ahead of the cold front.

 

Morning activity has nothing to do with it.

 

Well up this way it was too late. There was CU but they weren't doing much.

[cyclone77]

No rain here today.  Warmer and more humid day overall.

[Powerball]

Below average temperatures, pointless stratocumulus and strong/severe convection splitting us to the north and south.

 

Joy.

[Powerball]

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST

MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND

ISOLATED TORNADOES. STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO

DEVELOP NORTH OF I-69 AND MOVE EAST AT 35 MPH...BUT ALL OF

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HAS A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH 9PM. THE

THREAT WILL THEN COME TO AN END AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE

REGION TONIGHT.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1052 AM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

.UPDATE...

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS COMBINED WITH NEW MODEL RUNS

INCREASE CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT

TODAY. BROAD UPPER LOW ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY IS BOTH

STREAMING IMPULSES THROUGH THE REGION AND PROVIDING COOL UPPER AIR

TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN LAPSE RATES AT 9-10 C/KM FROM THE SFC

TO H7. HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT STILL INDICATED IN MODEL

RUNS IS LIKELY TO BE AUGMENTED NORTH OF I-69 AS VIS SATELLITE

SHOWS DECENT CLEARING. ALSO OBS INDICATE A DIURNAL TEMP CURVE

LOOKING LIKE LOW 80S IN THAT REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHER

CAPE VALUES THAN EARLIER ADVERTISED (1000-1750 J/KG). THOUGH THE

12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS TWO INVERSIONS AND WARM AIR IN THE H7 TO H5

LAYER...WE WILL BE INHERITING THE APX AIRMASS WHICH HAS A MUCH

LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMP AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALL THE WAY UP TO THE

28KFT EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL. STORM TYPE FAVORED IN THE 18-00Z HOURS

LOOKS TO BE LP SUPERCELLS NORTH...WITH MORE BANDING/LINE SEGMENTS

CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE 21-01Z SOUTH OF I-69. STRAIGHT

LINE WINDS OVER 60 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN THREATS

ACROSS THE CWA.

 

So much for that.