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August 2013 General Discussion


Geos

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Sitting around 90F again...low 70fs dps...  this is getting old.  Couple more days and its game over.

We dodged a bullet in Michigan... That neg anomaly just vanished in Wisconsin. All of the lower peninsula should stay negative for the month.

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My point says 94F and MKX acknowledges low to mid 90s throughout the forecast area, yet the 20C isotherm doesn't even touch Milwaukee.  I'm calling BS.  I think upper 80s will be the case, unless the GFS is dead wrong.

Unless there's debris cloud issues, 90's are a lock.

 

Oh, and...

gfsCGP_850_temp_033.gif

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Unless there's debris cloud issues, 90's are a lock.

 

Oh, and...

gfsCGP_850_temp_033.gif

 

I checked and the OP is by far the most aggressive with this and on its own.  Not sure I buy an outlier, I'll show you the map I'm looking at in a moment.  Notice the first one, the operational, is the furthest north and east with the isotherm.  Also, with the amount of precip it shows from 18z-00z, I don't think we will reach our potential in terms of highs.  The front appears to come through a bit earlier than on Wednesday, when there were absolutely no issues with clouds past 9am and the front took its sweet time getting there.  Heck, MKE's point is 3F warmer than most of Chicagoland.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f36.html

 

f36.gif

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Hmmm, never heard of a flash drought before lol.  Apparently we should be under a flash drought warning.

 

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
236 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2013

...FLASH DROUGHT DEVELOPING IN EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A VERY WET SPRING...SUMMER HAS TURNED DRY. COOL WEATHER MUCH
OF THE SUMMER HAD LIMITED STRESS ON AGRICULTURAL CROPS. BUT THE
RETURN OF VERY HOT LATE SUMMER WEATHER HAS QUICKLY INCREASED STRESS ON
AGRICULTURAL CROPS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPING FLASH DROUGHT.

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I got 91° in my point n' click tomorrow. Can't wait for the humidity to leave!

Hoping for some good storms tomorrow night though.

 

No fog up this way, other than this morning. High 83° today. Month will end up below normal given the cooler Saturday forecast and cooler than forecasted lows the last few days.

 

 

 

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I got 91° in my point n' click tomorrow. Can't wait for the humidity to leave!

Hoping for some good storms tomorrow night though.

 

No fog up this way, other than this morning. High 83° today. Month will end up below normal given the cooler Saturday forecast and cooler than forecasted lows the last few days.

 

attachicon.gif130829_0001.jpg

 

I wouldn't hold my breath.  Seems like more or less a similar situation to Tuesday, though a bit quicker frontal passage so we may get in on the action before the forcing decreases and the convection dissapates.

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Confirmed large tornado on the ground just west of Hill City MN

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  TORNADO WARNING  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  657 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2013    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH MN HAS ISSUED A    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...    NORTHWESTERN AITKIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...    EXTREME EAST CENTRAL CASS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...    * UNTIL 730 PM CDT    * AT 656 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS     TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF HILL CITY...NEAR HIGHWAY 200...    AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.      THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.      HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.      SOURCE...CONFIRMED TORNADO FROM TRAINED SPOTTERS.    

    Surprise....surprise

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saved and thanks for posting. by late afternoon when the sun was low out of the west it was a really cool effect with dense fog rolling between the skyscrapers along the lake. Lots of people were at the beaches and visibilities were well under 1/4 mile but yet skies were bright.

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DTW got hit by a freak issolated shower today, it popped up right over the area and dumped up to 1.5 inches per radar estimate on nearby areas.

 

It was calm and clear everywhere else within a 500 miles radius.

 

Stat padder.

 

EDIT: Looks like Ontario had a couple showers too, less impressive though.

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What is the timing for you guys?  I'd have to think early evening, about 6-8pm based on front timing.

 

He mentioned early evening. 

NAM hires showing storm in to the MKE to MSN corridor between 5-6pm, and down here at about 7pm. Should still have some of the heat leftover from the day at that hour.

 

Through 12am Saturday.

 

ptot29.gif

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There is one pretty strong rogue cell that is affecting parts of NW Wisconsin.  Might almost be something for DLL to keep an eye on, though I think it will pass just east of him.  It's holding its own nicely though, and actually has a solid southward trajectory.

 

Hmm, maybe some debris clouds in the morning?

 

wisgif32.jpg

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Hmm, maybe some debris clouds in the morning?

 

wisgif32.jpg

 

That's what I'm hoping for.  Funny to think Friday was originally supposed to be the coolest this week.  I remember my point had 81F a few days ago for a high.  Besides the heat dome drifting a tad more east than expected and a bit more of a SW flow, there isn't much difference.  I'm going with 88F for a high tomorrow.  If I bust, oh well.

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DTW got hit by a freak issolated shower today, it popped up right over the area and dumped up to 1.5 inches per radar estimate on nearby areas.

 

It was calm and clear everywhere else within a 500 miles radius.

 

Stat padder.

 

EDIT: Looks like Ontario had a couple showers too, less impressive though.

 

We had a trace at the airport, and convection by nature isn't going to hit everyone. Also why is it stat padding, that makes zero sense even if we did have appreciable rain here. That would be like someone who wanted rain, called every dry day "stat padders".

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