wisconsinwx Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 MKE's high for the day was 79F, slightly underachieving. The added humidity at the observation site the last couple days (probably due to Thursday's soaking) is part of the reason I'm hesitant on bullish highs. Again, tomorrow might hit 90F but I will say upper 80s is the safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 25, 2013 Author Share Posted August 25, 2013 Underachiever here as well - only 81°. Was supposed to be 84°. Still not really humid out. Thinking about 87° for tomorrow. Edit: Grid changed again: 86, 90, 91, 80, 78, 82, 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Yeah it was a nice night for a walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 25, 2013 Author Share Posted August 25, 2013 Dewpoint creeping up: 63° currently. MKX Heat index's forecasted for Monday and Tuesday. * Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 lol, the NAM is beefing this thing up even more. 2m temps now show Des Moines solidly in the mid to possibly upper 100s on Tuesday under 850 mb temps near 28C. MET MOS is much more tame and probably too tame showing a high of 96. Here's what the afternoon AFD had to say. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NAM12 SEEMS WAY TO HOT FOR MAX TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND GFS REMAINS TOO COLD. HOWEVER...NAM HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE WRT TO MAX TEMPS THE PAST FEW DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 lol, the NAM is beefing this thing up even more. 2m temps now show Des Moines solidly in the mid to possibly upper 100s on Tuesday under 850 mb temps near 28C. MET MOS is much more tame and probably too tame showing a high of 96. Here's what the afternoon AFD had to say. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NAM12 SEEMS WAY TO HOT FOR MAX TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND GFS REMAINS TOO COLD. HOWEVER...NAM HAS BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE WRT TO MAX TEMPS THE PAST FEW DAYS. I can't speak for their potential, but it is interesting that the NAM has us below 90F for tomorrow's high, considering the NAM's use is better in the short range. I think it illustrates how overly bullish the NAM is in the longer range. Then again, given how dry it's been in Des Moines, it may be close to accurate in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 I can't speak for their potential, but it is interesting that the NAM has us below 90F for tomorrow's high, considering the NAM's use is better in the short range. I think it illustrates how overly bullish the NAM is in the longer range. Then again, given how dry it's been in Des Moines, it may be close to accurate in this case. The NAM is showing 90 at MKE tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 25, 2013 Author Share Posted August 25, 2013 I think upper 100s in Des Moines or anywhere is really pushing at this late date. Maybe 105° would be possible. Ring of fire pattern will be cutting through WI - where it sets up will be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 The NAM is showing 90 at MKE tomorrow. It didn't look like it to me, but regardless we have been coming up a little short of guidance the last few days, so it wouldn't surprise me to do so again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 It didn't look like it to me, but regardless we have been coming up a little short of guidance the last few days, so it wouldn't surprise me to do so again. Is there anything you don't downplay? I am just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 I think upper 100s in Des Moines or anywhere is really pushing at this late date. Maybe 105° would be possible. Ring of fire pattern will be cutting through WI - where it sets up will be interesting to watch. I figure the same rules apply where convection rumbling through each night will have plenty of say as to where the next round ends up. Seems when we have these rings of fire the effective warm front gets pushed further south than modeled (another reason I'm not giving in to proclaiming heat wave just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Is there anything you don't downplay? I am just curious. In this case it is downplaying something I don't care to happen. Normally it is being pessimistic about an upcoming event. Regardless, it has more to do with how this summer and these recent days have gone than anything. If this was last summer with this setup and situation, I would not be downplaying it. What are your thoughts on the ring of fire? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 The NAM is showing 90 at MKE tomorrow. It didn't look like it to me, but regardless we have been coming up a little short of guidance the last few days, so it wouldn't surprise me to do so again. Only model not showing 90 tomorrow is the GFS. Even the majority of SREF ensembles are in the 90's The RAP has us mixing (probably overdone) to 850mb which would support mid 90's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 In this case it is downplaying something I don't care to happen. Normally it is being pessimistic about an upcoming event. Regardless, it has more to do with how this summer and these recent days have gone than anything. If this was last summer with this setup and situation, I would not be downplaying it. What are your thoughts on the ring of fire? Ok, so you are downplaying with no reasoning other than you don't want it to happen. Just making sure As for the ring of fire, I think MI looks pretty good on Tuesday. I don't buy the models that show stuff for eastern WI on Tuesday, not with those 850mb temps in the low to mid 20s. Beyond that it is a question mark as to how far south the front goes and where it will waver back and forth. I would hedge my bets on MI/OH/PA/W NY as being the favored spots, maybe far northern MN/WI as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Only model not showing 90 tomorrow is the GFS. Even the majority of SREF ensembles are in the 90's The RAP has us mixing (probably overdone) to 850mb which would support mid 90's. Do those models take the soil moisture into account adequately? I'm asking since MKE was one of the few sites not to hit 80 today because of the dewpoints staying robust. I don't think the dews will mix out that much, but perhaps enough to hit 90F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Ok, so you are downplaying with no reasoning other than you don't want it to happen. Just making sure As for the ring of fire, I think MI looks pretty good on Tuesday. I don't buy the models that show stuff for eastern WI on Tuesday, not with those 850mb temps in the low to mid 20s. Beyond that it is a question mark as to how far south the front goes and where it will waver back and forth. I would hedge my bets on MI/OH/PA/W NY as being the favored spots, maybe far northern MN/WI as well No it's called persistence. I'm using that right now since last week's 'heat wave' was originally overplayed a bit, and the recent soil moisture gained from Thursday's storms, while not a major factor, could prevent us from hitting 90F a day or two that we expected to hit it this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Made 88 here today, which was a slight overachievement. 90+ string starts tomorrow. The landscape has made a dramatic change to a more brown and burnt-out look over the last few weeks due to the lack of rain. A stark contrast to the First 7 months of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 No it's called persistence. I'm using that right now since last week's 'heat wave' was originally overplayed a bit, and the recent soil moisture gained from Thursday's storms, while not a major factor, could prevent us from hitting 90F a day or two that we expected to hit it this week. I don't think it is that much of a factor, if it were several days of rain then I think it would matter more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Made 88 here today, which was a slight overachievement. 90+ string starts tomorrow. The landscape has made a dramatic change to a more brown and burnt-out look over the last few weeks due to the lack of rain. A stark contrast to the First 7 months of the year. I have noticed this as well at home, the lawn is looking browner and browner even with the rain we had. The problem with those 1 day bursts of rain, they usually run off and you don't add much to the soil moisture as you would with even a few days of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Do those models take the soil moisture into account adequately? I'm asking since MKE was one of the few sites not to hit 80 today because of the dewpoints staying robust. I don't think the dews will mix out that much, but perhaps enough to hit 90F. We only hit 79 since we had SE wind all day and if i recall guidance was right around there. I think you're overplaying moisture, its not like the region has had a prolonged period of wet weather lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 25, 2013 Author Share Posted August 25, 2013 The lake had a bigger influence on temps today. The rainfall did not do that much good. I will say my grid forecast isn't excited about anything past the low 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 A little bump trolling fun at Jonger's expense: Hot like sub 85? I don't see it going over 85 for the rest of the summer, models look like 80-83 tops. Western Wisconsin looks warm, but the trough keeps the real heat west of Lake Michigan. 3 Miles S Howell, Livingston County Airport MI 7 Day Forecast Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming south southwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Southwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Monday A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. West southwest wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. West southwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. West southwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 65. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 87. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 25, 2013 Author Share Posted August 25, 2013 Hmm, kinda cloudy for the first day of the heat wave so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Full sun and already up to 83 here. Should make about 92-93 today. Point has 95/96 tomorrow and Tue, and then back to around 90 through the early part of the weekend. There's a heat advisory that stops about 6 miles west of here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 A little bump trolling fun at Jonger's expense: 3 Miles S Howell, Livingston County Airport MI 7 Day Forecast Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming south southwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Southwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Monday A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. West southwest wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. West southwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. West southwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 65. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 87. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Anything above 80 will feel like tropical heat after the weeks of late. A nice way to end a boring stretch of weather heading into fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 4km NAM going nuts with a temp of 109 at Des Moines on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 That's nuts! Definitely have awhile before the chances of summery weather disappear completely. Down to 56° here now. Nice night for a campfire in the backyard. Chipping away those departures slowly. Will be interesting to see how much the heat wave will do to bring things towards normal. The Des Moines F6 is now at 0.0F departure for the month. With at minimum +10 daily departures, we should see the yellow start popping in Iowa tomorrow and radiating outward by the month's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 I'm not sure whether Tuesday or Wednesday will be warmer around here. You can make a case for either day. I'd say Wednesday has a slightly higher ceiling but some potential precip or at least clouds may be more of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Nightmare MOS run for LAF heat haters KLAF GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 8/25/2013 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 MON 26| TUE 27| WED 28| THU 29| FRI 30| SAT 31| SUN 01|MON CLIMO N/X 63 91| 69 92| 72 94| 66 90| 64 90| 65 90| 67 90| 68 59 81 TMP 66 83| 71 84| 74 86| 68 82| 66 82| 68 83| 70 82| 69 DPT 61 67| 67 70| 69 71| 65 66| 63 66| 64 67| 65 68| 65 WND 3 7| 4 11| 6 8| 5 6| 3 5| 2 7| 4 8| 4 P12 3 8| 11 11| 28 21| 10 5| 13 7| 17 14| 19 20| 21999999 P24 8| 14| 33| 16| 17| 19| 28| 999 Q12 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| | Q24 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| | T12 2 6| 5 7| 23 34| 12 6| 9 16| 11 21| 18 19| 19 T24 | 6 | 30 | 40 | 17 | 24 | 33 | 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 94/71 Wednesday. Tim's gonna print and frame that. Look at the bright side. At least its not 75-80 DPs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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