daddylonglegs Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Geos- Interesting...and MKE would be the spot to do it (with the lake)... Already noticing the shadows getting longer during the day...sun is definitely dropping some... Summer coming to a close. Daff- I hate to see the end of the growing season, but yeah that frost/freeze comes in handy. I just hate seeing my flowers melt. Ragweed season for me is generally Aug 15-Sept 15... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 The expected warmup is certainly no surprise to me. Just like a mild winter makes you think a March snowstorm is en route, a cool summer makes you think a late season warm spell is in store. Now, it will be interesting to see how sultry mid to upper 80s feel after such an extended cool stretch. A story on the cool spell in place since July 24th by DTX: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=96616&source=2 Just 1 of the last 22 days (now 23 days) has been above normal at DTW. Its the 9th coolest stretch on record for this time of the summer. However, met summer (June 1-Aug 14) actually ranks at #44 warmest of the 140 years on record. 90F+ days are at just 5 so far this year (normal per year is 12), and those were all in a row. A closer look shows that as is often the case in recent years...it is the low temperatures that are bringing the average up. I suspect it is a mix of UHI and an unusually high number of overcast summer nights this year. Met Summer 2013 at Detroit, MI... June 1st through August 15th..... # of days with high temp BELOW normal: 46 # of days with high temp ABOVE normal: 25 # of days with high temp EXACTY normal: 5 # of days with low temp BELOW normal: 27 # of days with low temp ABOVE normal: 40# of days with low temp EXACTLY normal: 9 So MEAN temperature # of days with avg temp BELOW normal: 37# of days with avg temp ABOVE normal: 32# of days with avg temp EXACTLY normal: 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 16, 2013 Author Share Posted August 16, 2013 Yeah it feels like summer is winding down. Seeing it get dark by 8:15pm, having the sunrise around 6am now, and seeing families doing the back to school shopping. Can't believe Labor Day weekend is only 2 weeks away! Definitely have quite a bit of mild weather to go yet though. Down to 56° here at 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Just opened an eye after a several day snooze to peek at the point n click. Doesn't look like summer is over to me. Otherwise..... Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. . Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 DLL, La Crosse has had two years that September was warmer than August. August 1897: 66.6º September 1897: 68.0º August 2004: 66.7º September 2004: 67.2º Closer to my hood...Indianapolis has also pulled that feat off two times in their recorded history. 1927 impressively so. August 1915: 67.5º (coldest August on record) September 1915: 68.1º August 1927: 68.2º September 1927: 71.4º Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Wow... that is a shocker... Aug 2004 was the 7th coldest on record and Sept 2004 was the 9th warmest! crazy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Since there's a lot of love for it recently...a little MEX MOS verification project I did for the month of July. These are for max temps only. Number of days is the range of when the forecast was made...or when the model was run. No surprise the farther out, the greater the error. All in all, it was too warm for the month of July for IND and LAF. Though with the missing climo data set of LAF, I have to think the errors are exaggerated (climo or normals are warm-biased, which are integrated into the model)...but should be noted for locals. Haven't finished the 12z run verification for IND yet, so only the 0z data is below. LAF July 1-31 (0z runs June 26-July 25) 7 days: +3.0º 6 days: +3.4º 5 days: +2.6º 4 days: +2.3º 3 days: +2.6º 2 days: +2.2º 1 day: +2.5º 0 days: +0.6º LAF July 1-31 (12z runs June 26-July 25) 7 days: +3.6º 6 days: +3.3º 5 days: +2.7º 4 days: +3.0º 3 days: +2.2º 2 days: +3.0º 1 day: +2.1º IND July 1-31 (0z runs June 26-July 25) 7 days: +2.2º 6 days: +2.0º 5 days: +1.1º 4 days: +1.4º 3 days: +1.2º 2 days: +1.1º 1 day: +1.2º 0 days: +0.1º Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 DLL, La Crosse has had two years that September was warmer than August. August 1897: 66.6º September 1897: 68.0º August 2004: 66.7º September 2004: 67.2º Closer to my hood...Indianapolis has also pulled that feat off two times in their recorded history. 1927 impressively so. August 1915: 67.5º (coldest August on record) September 1915: 68.1º August 1927: 68.2º September 1927: 71.4º Oh yeah, I remember '04 had a crazy cool August. One of the days during the PGA at Whistling Straits that I can remember was really cool and foggy that year (as in low to mid 60s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 16, 2013 Author Share Posted August 16, 2013 Sitting around 76° this afternoon with pleasant humidity levels. Wish it could stay like this the rest of the month and not heat up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 I agree, to an extent. But this weather is awfully boring. If I wanted mid 70s everyday and no rain, I'd move to San Diego. Grass is screaming for water. Aurora is starting to enforce its watering restrictions again. That was unthinkable in early July. Sitting around 76° this afternoon with pleasant humidity levels. Wish it could stay like this the rest of the month and not heat up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 I agree, to an extent. But this weather is awfully boring. If I wanted mid 70s everyday and no rain, I'd move to San Diego. Grass is screaming for water. Aurora is starting to enforce its watering restrictions again. That was unthinkable in early July. That's the problem. The "nice" weather usually means boring weather in the Summer. This weather is great for outdoor activities but not great for the weather enthusiast. I hate Summer heat but you need it occasionally during the Summer to get the good t-storm patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 16, 2013 Author Share Posted August 16, 2013 I agree, to an extent. But this weather is awfully boring. If I wanted mid 70s everyday and no rain, I'd move to San Diego. Grass is screaming for water. Aurora is starting to enforce its watering restrictions again. That was unthinkable in early July. Yeah I should have added, mid 70s and some rain would be nice. No danger of restrictions up here. Dry forecast until Thursday here. At least the sun angle isn't as intense, things shouldn't severely dry out. 97 minutes of daylight lose at ORD already since June 21st. Sun is 10% lower in the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Way up north, just south of Hurley, renegade trees are already showing their color, especially reds and purples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Leaves around here came out about a month later than last year due to the cold spring compared to the "hot" spring of '12. Wonder if that will have any effect on the changing of the leaves this fall. Technically the leaves are about a month younger than they were this time last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Looks like most of Michigan gets spared from the heat wave. Enjoy that heat STL and DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 A heat wave would be 80+ at DTW as of late. Today I really tried to soak in the great weather and make this day the one to remember for those cold winter spells in late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 17, 2013 Author Share Posted August 17, 2013 Another pleasant night on tap, currently 58°. Edit: Allergies really bad tonight for me. I think the worst allergy spell for me is the same time period as it is for DLL - Aug. 15-Sept. 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Looks like most of Michigan gets spared from the heat wave. Enjoy that heat STL and DVN. Their avg high is 88.. I think they'll survive with their near avg temps next week. Sure hope the gfs hinting at a warm to hot labor day weekend holds and then the heat can GTFO for another 9 months until next June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Epic blowtorch on the way? THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATUREADVECTION TAKES PLACE JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH THE 17.00ZGFS/ECMWF SHOWING 925MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 29C FROM NORTHWESTIOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WOULD SUGGESTTHAT MID TO UPPER 90S ARE POSSIBLE IF SKIES ARE CLEAR IN THE WARMSECTOR. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ONWEDNESDAY...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 90SACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. 850MBTEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FROM BOTH THE 17.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANAREA OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORM...WHICH SUGGEST CLOSETO RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES IF SKIES ARE CLEAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Based on my calculations Tuesday should start a string of some + temp departures. That will mean from July 24 thru August 19, a stretch of 27 days, we will have had just one warmer than normal day. Few other notes...August 17th was the last 90+ day in the wicked summer of 1988 at DTW. Also don't forget...we can still see some torrid heatwaves, so I don't think the coming warm spell will have any historical significance. The longest heatwave on record for Detroit is August 24 - September 3, 1953. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Grids from LOT for this area are mid to upper 80's for this week. Not too bad. But, I did predict that it would warm up in time for school to start (schools start next Wednesday here) Looks like the first day of school will be around 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 17, 2013 Author Share Posted August 17, 2013 Grids from LOT for this area are mid to upper 80's for this week. Not too bad. But, I did predict that it would warm up in time for school to start (schools start next Wednesday here) Looks like the first day of school will be around 90. That figures doesn't it! Happened pretty often when I was in school - first week was usually pretty warm. WI school kids are lucky, they don't go back until the 3rd. I got 90° for Wednesday in my grid. But this morning is was a comfortable 52°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 La Crosse is saying upper 90Fs if the Euro is right and we go cloud free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 No 90s in my point forecast. Just mid-upper 80s and more quiet weather. Maybe some rain next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 17, 2013 Author Share Posted August 17, 2013 Lake wind keeping things tolerable here today. Would be nice if there was a lake breeze every day next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 No locals have 90 in their 7-day forecasts, but 90 shouldn't be too difficult to reach given what the Euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Looks like the warmest 850s hang back in S Dakota... should roast here with the dry ground in place. Interesting thing today...sun all day, yet clouds all around me... Me thinks the cold Mississippi River water is stabilizing the local atmosphere (it was 72F when we were out fishing a few days ago). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Beautiful day..mid 80Fs, dry ...no clouds at all here ... http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/wisc/ too bad i'm sick as a dog.. One thing with little kids; they invite over little friends that cough all over the house and spread germs like you wouldn't believe. Now the whole family has it...ugh. Can't stop it, but its annoying. When the kids go back to school...those first few months can be really bad, especially if a kid hasn't been in a daycare setting. (some parenting 101)... If you're ever in La Crosse, hit the Pearl (ice cream shop) across the street from the Radison downtown La Crosse (just east of Riverside)... get the Blue Moon waffle cone. we had some the other night... yum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 18, 2013 Author Share Posted August 18, 2013 Hit 77° here today. Mostly sunny all day. That sounds like some good ice cream, DLL! Mid 50s with locally dense fog tonight - interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 p&c shows mid 50's the next 2 nights, and mid 80's for highs tomorrow and Monday. Poses a dilemma with the A/C....to turn on or leave off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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