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August 2013 General Discussion


Geos

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Geos-

Interesting...and MKE would be the spot to do it (with the lake)...  Already noticing the shadows getting longer during the day...sun is definitely dropping some...  Summer coming to a close.

 

Daff-

 

I hate to see the end of the growing season, but yeah that frost/freeze comes in handy.  I just hate seeing my flowers melt.

 

Ragweed season for me is generally Aug 15-Sept 15... 

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The expected warmup is certainly no surprise to me. Just like a mild winter makes you think a March snowstorm is en route, a cool summer makes you think a late season warm spell is in store. Now, it will be interesting to see how sultry mid to upper 80s feel after such an extended cool stretch.

 

A story on the cool spell in place since July 24th by DTX:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=96616&source=2

 

Just 1 of the last 22 days (now 23 days) has been above normal at DTW. Its the 9th coolest stretch on record for this time of the summer. However, met summer (June 1-Aug 14) actually ranks at #44 warmest of the 140 years on record. 90F+ days are at just 5 so far this year (normal per year is 12), and those were all in a row. A closer look shows that as is often the case in recent years...it is the low temperatures that are bringing the average up. I suspect it is a mix of UHI and an unusually high number of overcast summer nights this year.

 

Met Summer 2013 at Detroit, MI...

 

June 1st through August 15th.....

# of days with high temp BELOW normal: 46

# of days with high temp ABOVE normal: 25

# of days with high temp EXACTY normal: 5

 

# of days with low temp BELOW normal: 27

# of days with low temp ABOVE normal: 40
# of days with low temp EXACTLY normal: 9

 

So MEAN temperature

# of days with avg temp BELOW normal: 37
# of days with avg temp ABOVE normal: 32
# of days with avg temp EXACTLY normal: 7

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Yeah it feels like summer is winding down. Seeing it get dark by 8:15pm, having the sunrise around 6am now, and seeing families doing the back to school shopping. 

Can't believe Labor Day weekend is only 2 weeks away!

 

Definitely have quite a bit of mild weather to go yet though.

 

Down to 56° here at 11pm.

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Just opened an eye after a several day snooze to peek at the point n click. Doesn't look like summer is over to me.

 

Otherwise..... :sleepy:

 

  • Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.
  • Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.
  • Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
  • Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. .
  • Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.
  • Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.
  • Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.
  • Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.
  • Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.
  • Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.
  • Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
  • Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 68.
  • Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 88.
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DLL, La Crosse has had two years that September was warmer than August.

 

August 1897: 66.6º

September 1897: 68.0º

 

August 2004: 66.7º

September 2004: 67.2º

 

Closer to my hood...Indianapolis has also pulled that feat off two times in their recorded history. 1927 impressively so.

 

August 1915: 67.5º (coldest August on record)

September 1915: 68.1º

 

August 1927: 68.2º

September 1927: 71.4º

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Since there's a lot of love for it recently...a little MEX MOS verification project I did for the month of July. These are for max temps only. Number of days is the range of when the forecast was made...or when the model was run. No surprise the farther out, the greater the error. All in all, it was too warm for the month of July for IND and LAF. Though with the missing climo data set of LAF, I have to think the errors are exaggerated (climo or normals are warm-biased, which are integrated into the model)...but should be noted for locals. Haven't finished the 12z run verification for IND yet, so only the 0z data is below. 

 

LAF July 1-31 (0z runs June 26-July 25)

7 days: +3.0º

6 days: +3.4º

5 days: +2.6º

4 days: +2.3º

3 days: +2.6º

2 days: +2.2º

1 day: +2.5º

0 days: +0.6º

 

LAF July 1-31 (12z runs June 26-July 25)

7 days: +3.6º

6 days: +3.3º

5 days: +2.7º

4 days: +3.0º

3 days: +2.2º

2 days: +3.0º

1 day: +2.1º

 

IND July 1-31 (0z runs June 26-July 25)

7 days: +2.2º

6 days: +2.0º

5 days: +1.1º

4 days: +1.4º

3 days: +1.2º

2 days: +1.1º

1 day: +1.2º

0 days: +0.1º

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DLL, La Crosse has had two years that September was warmer than August.

 

August 1897: 66.6º

September 1897: 68.0º

 

August 2004: 66.7º

September 2004: 67.2º

 

Closer to my hood...Indianapolis has also pulled that feat off two times in their recorded history. 1927 impressively so.

 

August 1915: 67.5º (coldest August on record)

September 1915: 68.1º

 

August 1927: 68.2º

September 1927: 71.4º

 

Oh yeah, I remember '04 had a crazy cool August.  One of the days during the PGA at Whistling Straits that I can remember was really cool and foggy that year (as in low to mid 60s).

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I agree, to an extent. But this weather is awfully boring. If I wanted mid 70s everyday and no rain, I'd move to San Diego. Grass is screaming for water. Aurora is starting to enforce its watering restrictions again. That was unthinkable in early July.

Sitting around 76° this afternoon with pleasant humidity levels. Wish it could stay like this the rest of the month and not heat up!

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I agree, to an extent. But this weather is awfully boring. If I wanted mid 70s everyday and no rain, I'd move to San Diego. Grass is screaming for water. Aurora is starting to enforce its watering restrictions again. That was unthinkable in early July.

 

That's the problem. The "nice" weather usually means boring weather in the Summer. This weather is great for outdoor activities but not great for the weather enthusiast. I hate Summer heat but you need it occasionally during the Summer to get the good t-storm patterns.

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I agree, to an extent. But this weather is awfully boring. If I wanted mid 70s everyday and no rain, I'd move to San Diego. Grass is screaming for water. Aurora is starting to enforce its watering restrictions again. That was unthinkable in early July.

 

 

Yeah I should have added, mid 70s and some rain would be nice. No danger of restrictions up here. Dry forecast until Thursday here.

 

At least the sun angle isn't as intense, things shouldn't severely dry out.

 

97 minutes of daylight lose at ORD already since June 21st. Sun is 10% lower in the sky.

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Looks like most of Michigan gets spared from the heat wave. Enjoy that heat STL and DVN.

 

Their avg high is 88..  I think they'll survive with their near avg temps next week.

 

Sure hope the gfs hinting at a warm to hot labor day weekend holds and then the heat can GTFO for another 9 months until next June.

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Epic blowtorch   on the way?

 

THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH THE 17.00Z
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 925MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 29C FROM NORTHWEST
IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
THAT MID TO UPPER 90S ARE POSSIBLE IF SKIES ARE CLEAR IN THE WARM
SECTOR. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ON
WEDNESDAY...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. 850MB
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FROM BOTH THE 17.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN
AREA OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORM...WHICH SUGGEST CLOSE
TO RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES IF SKIES ARE CLEAR.

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Based on my calculations Tuesday should start a string of some + temp departures. That will mean from July 24 thru August 19, a stretch of 27 days, we will have had just one warmer than normal day.

Few other notes...August 17th was the last 90+ day in the wicked summer of 1988 at DTW. Also don't forget...we can still see some torrid heatwaves, so I don't think the coming warm spell will have any historical significance. The longest heatwave on record for Detroit is August 24 - September 3, 1953.

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Grids from LOT for this area are mid to upper 80's for this week.  Not too bad.  But, I did predict that it would warm up in time for school to start (schools start next Wednesday here) Looks like the first day of school will be around 90.

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Grids from LOT for this area are mid to upper 80's for this week.  Not too bad.  But, I did predict that it would warm up in time for school to start (schools start next Wednesday here) Looks like the first day of school will be around 90.

 

That figures doesn't it! Happened pretty often when I was in school - first week was usually pretty warm. WI school kids are lucky, they don't go back until the 3rd.

 

I got 90° for Wednesday in my grid. 

 

But this morning is was a comfortable 52°.

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Looks like the warmest 850s hang back in S Dakota...  should roast here with the dry ground in place.

 

Interesting thing today...sun all day, yet clouds all around me...  Me thinks the cold Mississippi River water is stabilizing the local atmosphere (it was 72F when we were out fishing a few days ago). 

 

ecmwfUS_850_temp_144.gif

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