Winter 2013-14 Discussion

[snowlover2]

Not sure why this storm is being discussed in this thread but 0z GFS is similar.

Yikes!!!!! if only this would pan out Holly Molly Batman......

 

 

[Minnesota Meso]

Not sure why this storm is being discussed in this thread but 0z GFS is similar.

 

Don't want to put it in the general thread, as that seems to be based on current conditions, there is no thread for the next 10 days, so I put it in the winter forecast  thread by default.

[Geos]

Not sure why this storm is being discussed in this thread but 0z GFS is similar.

 

Doh, thought I was in the October thread. Hoosier feel free to move my post.

 

Anyway, that would be a lot of winter for some members if it came true!

[snowlover2]

Doh, thought I was in the October thread. Hoosier feel free to move my post.

 

Anyway, that would be a lot of winter for some members if it came true!

Maybe 2 months from now but this storm as modeled right now doesn't look like it has any cold air to work with.

[Minnesota Meso]

Look at this, the Gem has lost the cold air.  I am thinking that this may be a severe weather threat looming on the horizon....

 

[Chicago Storm]

Don't want to put it in the general thread, as that seems to be based on current conditions, there is no thread for the next 10 days, so I put it in the winter forecast  thread by default.

Now there's a thread for it...

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41492-winter-13-14-medlong-range-discussion/

[OSNW3]

Most of the region to see above average temps the first half of December based on #OSNW3 #LRC #ISO model.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1314/maps-temp.html

 

 

Also, in medium range, sticking with #organicforecasting method the Bering Sea Rule keeps the region cool into the first week of November.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1314/charts-bsrtr.html

[csnavywx]

The raging +AO/neutral ENSO pattern is reclaiming dominance and looks to stick around heading well into November. Once again, this does not bode well for snow lovers. Only a well placed/strong +EPO will be able to breach this pattern and provide relief if this scenario continues to carry towards winter.

[Jonger]

The raging +AO/neutral ENSO pattern is reclaiming dominance and looks to stick around heading well into November. Once again, this does not bode well for snow lovers. Only a well placed/strong +EPO will be able to breach this pattern and provide relief if this scenario continues to carry towards winter.

Its almost assured to go down before Dec 1st, that's a long time for the AO to stay that positive. Its not going to crash negative, but for my own area that's not really necessary.

[toronto blizzard]

The raging +AO/neutral ENSO pattern is reclaiming dominance and looks to stick around heading well into November. Once again, this does not bode well for snow lovers. Only a well placed/strong +EPO will be able to breach this pattern and provide relief if this scenario continues to carry towards winter.

A +EPO pattern will only make things worse IMO

[Hoosier]

A +EPO pattern will only make things worse IMO

Maybe he meant negative?

[Hoosier]

FWIW, Don Sutherland is suggesting warmer than average conditions for the Great Lakes region, though he did express more uncertainty there. Would go against many of the cold outlooks.

[toronto blizzard]

FWIW, Don Sutherland is suggesting warmer than average conditions for the Great Lakes region, though he did express more uncertainty there. Would go against many of the cold outlooks.

I don't think this winter will be as +AO a winter that a lot of people on these forums seem to think.

 

Too much uncertainty trying to figure out what the pattern will do this winter.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I don't think this winter will be as +AO a winter that a lot of people on these forums seem to think.

 

Too much uncertainty trying to figure out what the pattern will do this winter.

 

 

Can you offer something to back this up?

 

You have gone around to the sub-forum threads and by folks with way more knowledge than you or I been told the indices are lining up for a +AO winter.

 

So are you wish-casting or have something substantial to back it up?

[Stebo]

I don't think this winter will be as +AO a winter that a lot of people on these forums seem to think.

 

Too much uncertainty trying to figure out what the pattern will do this winter.

 

Usually mid to late October is a pretty good indicator for the upcoming winter with respect to the teleconnections especially the AO, it has been firmly in the positive range and actually very positive at that. Sure there is a chance that it could go negative during the winter but conventional wisdom would suggest that it will be more positive than negative this upcoming winter.

 

For what it is worth I do agree with Don that it might be a warmer winter, especially the further south or east you go into the region. This however doesn't mean that we will be below normal in snow except maybe across Ohio or into Southern Ontario, which would be due to the prevailing storm track through the region.

[Stebo]

Can you offer something to back this up?

 

You have gone around to the sub-forum threads and by folks with way more knowledge than you or I been told the indices are lining up for a +AO winter.

 

So are you wish-casting or have something substantial to back it up?

 

 

Probably best to dial it down a bit here, no need to be confrontational on this.

[Jonger]

The farther north you go, the less effect +AO has on determining snowfall for the season. I don't know what the AO will do 6 weeks from now, but the odds are that it will drop closer to neutral, mainly because it can't to anywhere but down from this point.

[Stebo]

The farther north you go, the less effect +AO has on determining snowfall for the season. I don't know what the AO will do 6 weeks from now, but the odds are that it will drop closer to neutral, mainly because it can't to anywhere but down from this point.

 

Yes it probably will drop closer to neutral and the further north and west you go in the region the less it will affect you. However, I don't see much indications that it will drop into the negative category anytime soon, does that mean it won't during the winter? No it doesn't but the indications going forward would be that we would end up with a positive AO for the majority of the winter. In positive AO winters a ridge in the Southeast tends to be a prevailing factor, 07-08 was one example of that, and a good portion of this region ended up with very positive snow anomalies.

 

Here are a +AO winter month composites, just as a point of reference:

 

 

 

[roardog]

The farther north you go, the less effect +AO has on determining snowfall for the season. I don't know what the AO will do 6 weeks from now, but the odds are that it will drop closer to neutral, mainly because it can't to anywhere but down from this point.

We're far enough north that a positive AO doesn't mean we're having a non winter. If the Pacific cooperates then we can actually have a very snowy winter in this type of pattern with the SE ridge.

[wisconsinwx]

We're far enough north that a positive AO doesn't mean we're having a non winter. If the Pacific cooperates then we can actually have a very snowy winter in this type of pattern with the SE ridge.

 

Yeah, I'm not worried about a prevailing +AO winter unless it's raging positive much of the time with a massive SE ridge, similar to 2011-12.

[roardog]

Yeah, I'm not worried about a prevailing +AO winter unless it's raging positive much of the time with a massive SE ridge, similar to 2011-12.

It was the Pacific pattern that made it ugly here in 11-12. The big Alaska vortex is what did us in. There was actually a -AO that developed during the winter but all the cold went into Europe/Asia.

[wisconsinwx]

That's true, but there were still periods of a major +AO if I remember correctly.

[JoMo]

+AO isn't the end of the world. If you get a -EPO everything will be fine. 

[Stebo]

+AO isn't the end of the world. If you get a -EPO everything will be fine. 

Agreed, even a neutral EPO is not bad for the region, only when it is + does it tend to be bad for the region.

[Snowstorms]

Yes it probably will drop closer to neutral and the further north and west you go in the region the less it will affect you. However, I don't see much indications that it will drop into the negative category anytime soon, does that mean it won't during the winter? No it doesn't but the indications going forward would be that we would end up with a positive AO for the majority of the winter. In positive AO winters a ridge in the Southeast tends to be a prevailing factor, 07-08 was one example of that, and a good portion of this region ended up with very positive snow anomalies.

Here are a +AO winter month composites, just as a point of reference:

Excellent analogy. And "GlobalWarmer" I love your posts but layoff a bit, "toronto" is just having his weenie moments haha. But yeah I do agree with you as I personally believe the AO will average out more positive than negative this winter season.

We have seen a spike in solar activity recently; however, geomagnetic conditions have remaind almost the same with little change and this recent uptick hasnt done anything yet so far but I do suspect the sunspots to calm down within the next few weeks and enter another slumber. If however it does continue it may affect the atmospheric conditions in the stratosphere across the equator and in large have an effect on the AO and NAO.

The first 2-3 weeks of November shall continue its up and downward motion with cool downs lasting no more than 1-3 days though I dont expect overly warm conditions in most of the subforum as the battle of the oceans holds strong with no sign of an another AK vortex. By the last week of November, current conditions of the MJO, stratospheric temperatures and QBO suggest a change in the pattern and I could very well see a -AO anomaly developing though I dont see any prolonged period of a -NAO judging by the NATL ssts as they dont favor a strong -NAO like we have been seeing the past few winters.

I think by December things will get interesting as the MJO calms down and the K/W waves weaken thus perhaps resulting in a weak STJ anomaly developing with a -EPO in place. Sort of a pseudo LA NADA pattern with a SE ridge given the neutral NAO but thats my 2 cents. I favor a December similar to 2007 with near normal temperatures with more below normal anomalies out west.

Whats your take?

[Snowstorms]

Agreed, even a neutral EPO is not bad for the region, only when it is + does it tend to be bad for the region.

2011-12 is a good example of a strong +EPO resulting in a AK vortex and robbing us of any cold air anomalies from the -AO later that winter season. The La nina effects were blbasically layered beneath the warmth of the Pacific because of the PV, horrible winter.

[Stebo]

Excellent analogy. And "GlobalWarmer" I love your posts but layoff a bit, "toronto" is just having his weenie moments haha. But yeah I do agree with you as I personally believe the AO will average out more positive than negative this winter season.

We have seen a spike in solar activity recently; however, geomagnetic conditions have remaind almost the same with little change and this recent uptick hasnt done anything yet so far but I do suspect the sunspots to calm down within the next few weeks and enter another slumber. If however it does continue it may affect the atmospheric conditions in the stratosphere across the equator and in large have an effect on the AO and NAO.

The first 2-3 weeks of November shall continue its up and downward motion with cool downs lasting no more than 1-3 days though I dont expect overly warm conditions in most of the subforum as the battle of the oceans holds strong with no sign of an another AK vortex. By the last week of November, current conditions of the MJO, stratospheric temperatures and QBO suggest a change in the pattern and I could very well see a -AO anomaly developing though I dont see any prolonged period of a -NAO judging by the NATL ssts as they dont favor a strong -NAO like we have been seeing the past few winters.

I think by December things will get interesting as the MJO calms down and the K/W waves weaken thus perhaps resulting in a weak STJ anomaly developing with a -EPO in place. Sort of a pseudo LA NADA pattern with a SE ridge given the neutral NAO but thats my 2 cents. I favor a December similar to 2007 with near normal temperatures with more below normal anomalies out west.

Whats your take?

 

A strong -NAO would not be good for the region either. So the fact that the NATL sea surface temperatures are showing what they show, it would be a positive for the region, now if we ended up with a +NAO and a +AO then things might be very warm for parts of the region especially the Eastern Lakes and Ohio Valley, ideally Neutral to moderately -NAO is the best for the region, if you get too negative, it turns into a moisture starved clipper fest, and very cold temperatures.

 

If we were to have a stratospheric warming event in late November/early December that could very much help this region out, though it remains to be seen what happens as we get out that far.

[Snowstorms]

A strong -NAO would not be good for the region either. So the fact that the NATL sea surface temperatures are showing what they show, it would be a positive for the region, now if we ended up with a +NAO and a +AO then things might be very warm for parts of the region especially the Eastern Lakes and Ohio Valley, ideally Neutral to moderately -NAO is the best for the region, if you get too negative, it turns into a moisture starved clipper fest, and very cold temperatures.

If we were to have a stratospheric warming event in late November/early December that could very much help this region out, though it remains to be seen what happens as we get out that far.

Yes I agree. NATL SST's are very similar infact almost identical to 2008 which is encouraging for snow lovers in this subforum. The difference is the ENSO anomaly and with the MJO fighting towards a more active look I could see periods where we witness an active STJ and a SE ridge in part of the La Nada anomaly and neutral AO/NAO anomalies.

Over the next few weeks we could see weak trade winds persist across the ENSO regions as the MJO remains active and K/W waves penetrate through the cooler anomalies but subsurface temperatures deep down are still quite cold so despite the surface warming we wont see any El Nino developing in my opinion. Given the state of the QBO its unusual seeing a warm stratosphere but this could have implications in perhaps developing a more pronounced -AO anomaly esp the second half but we"ll have to wait and see. Im really liking 2008-2009, 1962-63 as primary target analogs and 1971-72 to a lesser extent. The PDO though negative remains weak and that may aide in developing a more -EPO. If the Aleutian ridge is more poleward it may help us in aiding a storm track up the Apps or up the east coast, but that remains to be seen.

In conclusion, alot of factors are at play here, and fact of the matter is we have alot of unusual things going on so this winter looks far harder to forecast than other years.

October snow correlation argues against a strong -AO anomaly somewhere between 2007-08 and 2008-09 looks to be the final outcome of the AO. A very strong -NAO like 09-10 aint good for any of us and thus far signs are against it happening this year so thats one positive thing here. Lets see. Agree?

[wisconsinwx]

Yes I agree. NATL SST's are very similar infact almost identical to 2008 which is encouraging for snow lovers in this subforum. The difference is the ENSO anomaly and with the MJO fighting towards a more active look I could see periods where we witness an active STJ and a SE ridge in part of the La Nada anomaly and neutral AO/NAO anomalies.

Over the next few weeks we could see weak trade winds persist across the ENSO regions as the MJO remains active and K/W waves penetrate through the cooler anomalies but subsurface temperatures deep down are still quite cold so despite the surface warming we wont see any El Nino developing in my opinion. Given the state of the QBO its unusual seeing a warm stratosphere but this could have implications in perhaps developing a more pronounced -AO anomaly esp the second half but we"ll have to wait and see. Im really liking 2008-2009, 1962-63 as primary target analogs and 1971-72 to a lesser extent. The PDO though negative remains weak and that may aide in developing a more -EPO. If the Aleutian ridge is more poleward it may help us in aiding a storm track up the Apps or up the east coast, but that remains to be seen.

In conclusion, alot of factors are at play here, and fact of the matter is we have alot of unusual things going on so this winter looks far harder to forecast than other years.

October snow correlation argues against a strong -AO anomaly somewhere between 2007-08 and 2008-09 looks to be the final outcome of the AO. A very strong -NAO like 09-10 aint good for any of us and thus far signs are against it happening this year so thats one positive thing here. Lets see. Agree?

 

A blend of 07-08 and 08-09 sounds good.  Where do we sign up?

[Stebo]

Yes I agree. NATL SST's are very similar infact almost identical to 2008 which is encouraging for snow lovers in this subforum. The difference is the ENSO anomaly and with the MJO fighting towards a more active look I could see periods where we witness an active STJ and a SE ridge in part of the La Nada anomaly and neutral AO/NAO anomalies.

Over the next few weeks we could see weak trade winds persist across the ENSO regions as the MJO remains active and K/W waves penetrate through the cooler anomalies but subsurface temperatures deep down are still quite cold so despite the surface warming we wont see any El Nino developing in my opinion. Given the state of the QBO its unusual seeing a warm stratosphere but this could have implications in perhaps developing a more pronounced -AO anomaly esp the second half but we"ll have to wait and see. Im really liking 2008-2009, 1962-63 as primary target analogs and 1971-72 to a lesser extent. The PDO though negative remains weak and that may aide in developing a more -EPO. If the Aleutian ridge is more poleward it may help us in aiding a storm track up the Apps or up the east coast, but that remains to be seen.

In conclusion, alot of factors are at play here, and fact of the matter is we have alot of unusual things going on so this winter looks far harder to forecast than other years.

October snow correlation argues against a strong -AO anomaly somewhere between 2007-08 and 2008-09 looks to be the final outcome of the AO. A very strong -NAO like 09-10 aint good for any of us and thus far signs are against it happening this year so thats one positive thing here. Lets see. Agree?

 

Yeah that is the one thing that is different this time around, the ENSO is closer to neutral vs moderate La Nina. The addition of the STJ though could be favorable for the region though, especially if we also have an active polar jet, as it could potentially lead to more phasing of the jets. Although if we are in a split flow pattern then the region might end up screwed.