michsnowfreak Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 The majority of our garbage winters had such rosey early predictions. If I had a dollar for everytime a refernce to 07-08 was made in a winter prediction I would be sitting good. There has only BEEN one garbage winter since 2007-08. Like I said in my last post, pull outlooks from the 1990s, and mild winter predictions ruled the roost...because THAT was the trend.....just as outlooks now have snowy forecasts ruling because that is the current trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 I put no stock in winter predictions. Something will lock in and will determine the type of winter we get.... Its going to be a pacific flow or trough, pick your poison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 There has only BEEN one garbage winter since 2007-08. Like I said in my last post, pull outlooks from the 1990s, and mild winter predictions ruled the roost...because THAT was the trend.....just as outlooks now have snowy forecasts ruling because that is the current trend. Since all of December was trash, it was a big blemish on last winter. The Christmas miracle snow saved the month a little bit, but almost all winter sports in the midwest were wasted on that month. I do agree with you on snowy trends, over the last 13 years it has been common place to exceed annual snow totals by a hefty margin. I just hope 2010-2011 wasn't the end of that trend, the last 2 winters were very 1990's like, except March and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Its almost a little scary how many sources cite that some sort of a harsh winter is on the way (be it cold, snow, or both) for this area. From the feel-good signs (NH snow/ice cover is WAY ahead of the last many years, the arctic sea ice extent was good this summer, enso is neutral to ever so slightly neg)...to the old-school stuff (my winter-hating boss is freaking out because she can't remember a year when her oak had so many acorns, the farmers almanac predicting a very harsh winter)...its all the makings of being an epic winter. I am starting to have a real good feeling. BUT high expectations can lead to a lot of dissappointment too. All I know is that im starting to get ready for SNOW Haha at the acorns story. I noticed trees in general are loaded/were loaded with seeds this Autumn. A lot of good indicators to a great winter ahead. Trying to figure out where the ridge and troughs set up is a bit more complicated. I noticed that the CFS is parking the Aleutian Low for some time to come into the DJF period with a strong +PNA, -NAO. I dont' see any strong indication of a zonal flow this winter, especially since the ONI index staying near normal. If anything we might revert back to our late winter spring pattern. I'm about ready for snow as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Since all of December was trash, it was a big blemish on last winter. The Christmas miracle snow saved the month a little bit, but almost all winter sports in the midwest were wasted on that month. I do agree with you on snowy trends, over the last 13 years it has been common place to exceed annual snow totals by a hefty margin. I just hope 2010-2011 wasn't the end of that trend, the last 2 winters were very 1990's like, except March and April. +1 2011-2012 seemed like such fluke. I think it pretty much surprised everybody. I hope we can actually get a front-loaded winter for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 The abundance of acorns is in relationship to the great growing season we had. Whether or not that foretells a great winter remains to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 The abundance of acorns is in relationship to the great growing season we had. Whether or not that foretells a great winter remains to be determined. It sounds like a good pollination season more than growing season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 While you guys have an abundance of acorns up north...here in north Carolina there are no acorn at all...I can't remember a year this bad in a long time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 It sounds like a good pollination season more than growing season. Most likely this^. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 Haha at the acorns story. I noticed trees in general are loaded/were loaded with seeds this Autumn. A lot of good indicators to a great winter ahead. Trying to figure out where the ridge and troughs set up is a bit more complicated. I noticed that the CFS is parking the Aleutian Low for some time to come into the DJF period with a strong +PNA, -NAO. I dont' see any strong indication of a zonal flow this winter, especially since the ONI index staying near normal. If anything we might revert back to our late winter spring pattern. I'm about ready for snow as well! Looking at the 8-10 day mean plots (penn state e-wall, ECMWF/GFS comparison) I can see a trough in the Great Lakes, with negative height anomalies over the Arctic and Greenland. That's kind of a weird one, although believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 The models really show a healthy, consistent supply of cold shots developing in the arctic and pushing southward. This could be a really promising year (of course, dependent on the jet, some people may miss out) but it's something that seems to have been lacking the last few seasons... it seems like the last 2 winters it took forever for real cold to build up north, and when it would come down, it would vanish entirely altogether and we'd have to wait for it to rebuild. Prospects seem decent for the supply of arctic air, I'm impressed with how early it's getting started up there. But perhaps after 2 mild starts, this is simply "normal" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 FWIW, haven't seen it posted here yet, here's the forecast from the gentleman at snow-day.org Chalk up another outlook in the cold/snowy column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 lol craig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Haha at the acorns story. I noticed trees in general are loaded/were loaded with seeds this Autumn. A lot of good indicators to a great winter ahead. Trying to figure out where the ridge and troughs set up is a bit more complicated. I noticed that the CFS is parking the Aleutian Low for some time to come into the DJF period with a strong +PNA, -NAO. I dont' see any strong indication of a zonal flow this winter, especially since the ONI index staying near normal. If anything we might revert back to our late winter spring pattern. I'm about ready for snow as well! Any low parked in that spot seems to screw us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 every one and their mother is calling for a big time winter, it's a fine call I guess but man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 FWIW, haven't seen it posted here yet, here's the forecast from the gentleman at snow-day.org Chalk up another outlook in the cold/snowy column If it is not cold and snowy, then it is not a legitimate winter forecast. People who predict warm winters should be banned from meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 I'd rather not see all these hyped forecasts because 2011-12 haunts me for life... so much hype and what a massive dud that winter was! It hurts so much more when you're anticipating greatness. I think we will have a less delayed winter, which is clear and not hard to go out on a limb on given what's happening right now, which is likely more "normal" but nothing outstanding by any stretch. My prediction overall would be more "normal" than the last couple years (colder, maybe a bit snowier) but nothing too extraordinary. I'm happy with normal after the non-winter 2011/12 and tardy 2012/2013 season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 lol craig. From Omaha? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Any low parked in that spot seems to screw us. 2011-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 Any low parked in that spot seems to screw us. I'm talking back towards Russia not towards the Gulf of Alaska where it was the case in 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Haha at the acorns story. I noticed trees in general are loaded/were loaded with seeds this Autumn. A lot of good indicators to a great winter ahead. Trying to figure out where the ridge and troughs set up is a bit more complicated. I noticed that the CFS is parking the Aleutian Low for some time to come into the DJF period with a strong +PNA, -NAO. I dont' see any strong indication of a zonal flow this winter, especially since the ONI index staying near normal. If anything we might revert back to our late winter spring pattern. I'm about ready for snow as well! I'd much rather a -PNA, which would offer more potential for some impressive cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Typically when its a colder later half of October and the first part of November expect above average temps to return sometime in November thru December. So I'm going above average temps from Nov 15-thru Dec 31st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 lol craig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 From Omaha? The one and only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 I'd much rather a -PNA, which would offer more potential for some impressive cutters. You need sufficient blocking for that to happen though right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 You need sufficient blocking for that to happen though right? Not necessarily. A -PNA is likely to pop a eastern ridge and any surface low pressure system that can form underneath the western trough from CO south to the panhandle of OK will ride the western edge of the ridge up into the lakes area. A nice mature surface cyclone can move slow enough to dump large amounts of snow. In terms of blocking, that would be a bonus, and would require a extreme west based blocking pattern that could set up north of the lakes but south of Hudson Bay allowing said storm to stall out. By the way there is a new site that you may want to try for ECMWF output including snowfall and SB cape. I like the idea in that the site is set up to only allow ECMWF output and is reasonably priced, as other model info ie: the GFS, Nam, and GEM is free, you may want to use it to supplement your forecast. I have used the free trail period and found it useful. but I am waiting until something interesting is on my doorstep to jump into the monthly subscription. http://www.eurowx.com/ Give it a shot, you may like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Not necessarily. A -PNA is likely to pop a eastern ridge and any surface low pressure system that can form underneath the western trough from CO south to the panhandle of OK will ride the western edge of the ridge up into the lakes area. A nice mature surface cyclone can move slow enough to dump large amounts of snow. In terms of blocking, that would be a bonus, and would require a extreme west based blocking pattern that could set up north of the lakes but south of Hudson Bay allowing said storm to stall out. By the way there is a new site that you may want to try for ECMWF output including snowfall and SB cape. I like the idea in that the site is set up to only allow ECMWF output and is reasonably priced, as other model info ie: the GFS, Nam, and GEM is free, you may want to use it to supplement your forecast. I have used the free trail period and found it useful. but I am waiting until something interesting is on my doorstep to jump into the monthly subscription. http://www.eurowx.com/ Give it a shot, you may like it. Thanks for the explanation and link! I'll check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Tonight's run of the GFS is much further north with the Halloween storm, and has come closer to the 10/22 12z run of the GEM. I believe it's still a little bit to fast in not allowing enough cold air into the system. Best guess is that future runs will move further west. This could be very fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Tonight's run of the GFS is much further north with the Halloween storm, and has come closer to the 10/22 12z run of the GEM. I believe it's still a little bit to fast in not allowing enough cold air into the system. Best guess is that future runs will move further west. This could be very fun to watch. It does look fun to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Yikes!!!!! if only this would pan out Holly Molly Batman...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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