Winter 2013-14 Discussion

[OSNW3]

I suppose this pertains to winter, spring, and summer. I decided to post it here.

 

Some on this forum may remember I like to create algorithms to project weather and climate conditions using "organic" forecasting methods. This year I am attempting an ensemble approach. M1: LRC (Lezak's Recurring Cycle), M2: LRC applied to ISO (Intraseasonal Oscillations), and M3: the BSR (Bering Sea Rule).

 

Currently I am entering BETA mode with the site and data visualizations. Fixing bugs and what not as I test. As it is with my coding sometimes, I fix one thing, that thing then brakes something else. LOL. Feel free to participate, run the site and API's through the ringer. Because of it being so early in the cyclic pattern genesis, the range selector is offset off the chart, to get around that take the left marker and move to the right, then you'll get the range of half the current cycle duration. Also, with Google Drive when the data tables are updated on the Internet it takes a little while for Google to introduce the changes. I've been playing with a bunch of tables this AM so some of the data may be skewed (like average snowfall and days with snow). Don't forget about the Excel Interactive View. It is all the ensemble data for that station at your finger tips! If you find yourself on the site and see something that totally sucks, please let me know!

 

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1314/index.html

 

I am looking forward to comparing the output of the ensemble with your forecasts and observations on this thread! You guys do great work.

[Sub_Zero]

Didn't Ottawa have like 150" or some ridiculous high amount?

There's youtube video out there where a guy near Ottawa build a huge snowwall next to his driveway that winter.

 

It was a winter to remember around these parts.  A repeat you say?  Bring it on

[Geos]

It was a winter to remember around these parts.  A repeat you say?  Bring it on

 

I think we're heading for a gradient pattern this winter. 

What's your average snowfall there? cm is fine... I know my conversions!

[Minnesota Meso]

While it has zero support from the GFS/GEM the last two runs of the Euro have been quite interesting for the West Central and North Central parts of this sub forum for next weekend. Enough said, don't want to jinx it.

[Geos]

While it has zero support from the GFS/GEM the last two runs of the Euro have been quite interesting for the West Central and North Central parts of this sub forum for next weekend. Enough said, don't want to jinx it.

 

Yeah I noticed that as well. Still have 6 days to go before that period.

[Sub_Zero]

I think we're heading for a gradient pattern this winter. 

What's your average snowfall there? cm is fine... I know my conversions!

 

We average about 95" of snow. Excited for it to arrive, but truly enjoying the weather we've been having, had the ac on in the car yesterday!

[OSNW3]

Currently I am entering BETA mode.

 

I should add, I have password protected the Interactive Excel data this year. Once the model "engages" on Nov-17 and you want to access the entire ensemble data for a particular station shoot me a message or email to get a user/pass.

[Spwild47]

Wow..that is amazing! Check it out people..

I suppose this pertains to winter, spring, and summer. I decided to post it here.

 

Some on this forum may remember I like to create algorithms to project weather and climate conditions using "organic" forecasting methods. This year I am attempting an ensemble approach. M1: LRC (Lezak's Recurring Cycle), M2: LRC applied to ISO (Intraseasonal Oscillations), and M3: the BSR (Bering Sea Rule).

 

Currently I am entering BETA mode with the site and data visualizations. Fixing bugs and what not as I test. As it is with my coding sometimes, I fix one thing, that thing then brakes something else. LOL. Feel free to participate, run the site and API's through the ringer. Because of it being so early in the cyclic pattern genesis, the range selector is offset off the chart, to get around that take the left marker and move to the right, then you'll get the range of half the current cycle duration. Also, with Google Drive when the data tables are updated on the Internet it takes a little while for Google to introduce the changes. I've been playing with a bunch of tables this AM so some of the data may be skewed (like average snowfall and days with snow). Don't forget about the Excel Interactive View. It is all the ensemble data for that station at your finger tips! If you find yourself on the site and see something that totally sucks, please let me know!

 

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1314/index.html

 

I am looking forward to comparing the output of the ensemble with your forecasts and observations on this thread! You guys do great work.

[jdrenken]

It's all about the networking!

I suppose this pertains to winter, spring, and summer. I decided to post it here.

Some on this forum may remember I like to create algorithms to project weather and climate conditions using "organic" forecasting methods. This year I am attempting an ensemble approach. M1: LRC (Lezak's Recurring Cycle), M2: LRC applied to ISO (Intraseasonal Oscillations), and M3: the BSR (Bering Sea Rule).

Currently I am entering BETA mode with the site and data visualizations. Fixing bugs and what not as I test. As it is with my coding sometimes, I fix one thing, that thing then brakes something else. LOL. Feel free to participate, run the site and API's through the ringer. Because of it being so early in the cyclic pattern genesis, the range selector is offset off the chart, to get around that take the left marker and move to the right, then you'll get the range of half the current cycle duration. Also, with Google Drive when the data tables are updated on the Internet it takes a little while for Google to introduce the changes. I've been playing with a bunch of tables this AM so some of the data may be skewed (like average snowfall and days with snow). Don't forget about the Excel Interactive View. It is all the ensemble data for that station at your finger tips! If you find yourself on the site and see something that totally sucks, please let me know!

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1314/index.html

I am looking forward to comparing the output of the ensemble with your forecasts and observations on this thread! You guys do great work.

[KokomoWX]

If anyone missed Roger's forecast in the main forum - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41421-roger-smith-long-range-forecast-winter-2013-14-heavy-snow-inland/ 

[harrisale]

If anyone missed Roger's forecast in the main forum - http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41421-roger-smith-long-range-forecast-winter-2013-14-heavy-snow-inland/ 

 

Harsh winter? I'll take it!

 

So far I haven't seen a single forecast that doesn't call for below normal temps in the Lakes region, and many have indicated above-normal snow as well.

[wisconsinwx]

Neutral Enso winters are dangerous from a forecasting pov. You can get 81-82, but then 01-02. There is no real driver indicator that can give you a real good hint. Just sorta spin the wheel and hope.

 

01-02 had a similar cold snap to end October, though a bit shorter in duration than this one looks.  When I recalled that, it didn't exactly ease the questions I have about how this winter is likely to transpire.

[WxMidwest]

95-96, 91-92, and 2000-2001 come in with early cold. 91-92 was amazingly cold through 1st week of Dec, then it was a crap winter in the Midwest (Strong Nino), 95-96 was awesome in Wisconsin, 2000-01 was great till ,about mid January...

 

I don't see this early October cold as a fluke, since we have quite the cryospheric buildup, best sea ice area since 2005, best snow area since 2000.... (No strong tending ENSO event either way... Thats a good thing..)

[wisconsinwx]

I agree about the lack of an enso signal being a good thing. Neutral winters are all over the place, but more good ones than bad historically, and I doubt the AO and NAO will be positive most of the winter, so shouldn't see a total clunker of a winter most likely.

[IWXwx]

I agree with angry, I'd rather have a weak nina or nino signal, so we have a better idea of what may happen. With no signal, it's a crap shoot.

[Geos]

95-96, 91-92, and 2000-2001 come in with early cold. 91-92 was amazingly cold through 1st week of Dec, then it was a crap winter in the Midwest (Strong Nino), 95-96 was awesome in Wisconsin, 2000-01 was great till ,about mid January...

 

I don't see this early October cold as a fluke, since we have quite the cryospheric buildup, best sea ice area since 2005, best snow area since 2000.... (No strong tending ENSO event either way... Thats a good thing..)

 

1995-1996 winter was the first winter I really remember well from start to finish. I think this area got between 60-70". Frequent snows with no huge warm-ups during the winter.

[hoosierwx]

According to Accuweather not a whole lot of snow for the Ohio Valley but maybe some good tornado chasing.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-winter-2013-2014-snow/18574742#link1

[Geos]

According to Accuweather not a whole lot of snow for the Ohio Valley but maybe some good tornado chasing.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-winter-2013-2014-snow/18574742#link1

 

They actually had to come back and say that more likely means severe storms as in strong storm systems. Not necessarily wind, hail and tornadoes throughout the winter!

[Jonger]

1995-1996 winter was the first winter I really remember well from start to finish. I think this area got between 60-70". Frequent snows with no huge warm-ups during the winter.

 

That's the difference between the last two winters and the majority of winters between 2000-2010, we would have snow on the ground with no warmups in sight. The last two winters we could see the torch coming before the storms even hit, felt very 1990's like.

[Snowstorms]

I believe analogs are a good pointer to look at to try and find similarities but aren't a good indicative of the overall result of Winter. Each winter varies between its different sets of anomalies, so when ever i try to analyze long term weather patterns i look at the signs already present, teleconnections, changes in the stratosphere, MJO, etc. If i had to cut it down to analogs as a platform, a few stick out such as; 2008-09. 2008-09 had a similar SST profile globally compared to this year. Coldest anomalies in the ENSO region were in the Western areas, with a classic -PDO signature, warm NATL SST's, the Indian ocean dipole index is very similar to this year, slightly more positive in 2008, and the North Pacific had a decent warm pool south of the Aleutian Islands. QBO anomaly up at 30mb in the stratosphere seems very similar and both this year and 2008 had a declining solar output. I read a paper that showed changes in the Solar output could have an indirect effect on the wavelengths, expansion and retraction and atmospheric circulation in the Hadley Cell. This could then effect how the AO and NAO behave with changes in the stratosphere. 

 

In 2001-02 the solar maximum was at its peak much like 2013, though this year its very dead, and the AO and NAO were really positive combined with a AK vortex. The solar max may have expanded the Hadley cell that year, coupled with a rising QBO anomaly and in turn pushed the jet-stream further north but im just speculating, i haven't dug deep into this theory. 

[RCNYILWX]

There's a thread on the main page about the October Pattern Index (OPI) over Eurasia in predicting the predominant winter AO state, similar to November SAI (snow advance index). And one of the authors of the study indicated that the value thus far this month is positive and likely indicative of a mainly +AO winter. I think that moreso than the AO, which was negative during the very warm December 2012, is whether we see primarily ridging or troughing in the Gulf of Alaska, - or + EPO, respectively. There was a strongly positive EPO in December last year, flooding the country with a Pacific airmass despite the -AO. Obviously having a -AO doesn't hurt but the state of the North Pacific (EPO) could be the big player this winter. We'll have to see if the massive ridge along the west coast up through Alaska progged to lock in next week and bring us the chilly pattern becomes a persistent feature into November, because that might be a positive sign for having a -EPO in the winter and better cross polar flow.

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[SpartyOn]

That's the difference between the last two winters and the majority of winters between 2000-2010, we would have snow on the ground with no warmups in sight. The last two winters we could see the torch coming before the storms even hit, felt very 1990's like.

Hardly the case when looking back at the daily temps for those winters. Many a snowpack destroying torches.

[csnavywx]

Certainly going to be hairy if we have to rely on the EPO to deliver a decent winter. Neutral ENSO and +AO composites for Dec-Feb aren't very friendly for snow-lovers.

[Jonger]

There's a thread on the main page about the October Pattern Index (OPI) over Eurasia in predicting the predominant winter AO state, similar to November SAI (snow advance index). And one of the authors of the study indicated that the value thus far this month is positive and likely indicative of a mainly +AO winter. I think that moreso than the AO, which was negative during the very warm December 2012, is whether we see primarily ridging or troughing in the Gulf of Alaska, - or + EPO, respectively. There was a strongly positive EPO in December last year, flooding the country with a Pacific airmass despite the -AO. Obviously having a -AO doesn't hurt but the state of the North Pacific (EPO) could be the big player this winter. We'll have to see if the massive ridge along the west coast up through Alaska progged to lock in next week and bring us the chilly pattern becomes a persistent feature into November, because that might be a positive sign for having a -EPO in the winter and better cross polar flow.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

The EPO has been the most important index the last several winters, when its unfavorable we almost always get stuck in a zonal flow.

[michsnowfreak]

Its almost a little scary how many sources cite that some sort of a harsh winter is on the way (be it cold, snow, or both) for this area. From the feel-good signs (NH snow/ice cover is WAY ahead of the last many years, the arctic sea ice extent was good this summer, enso is neutral to ever so slightly neg)...to the old-school stuff (my winter-hating boss is freaking out because she can't remember a year when her oak had so many acorns, the farmers almanac predicting a very harsh winter)...its all the makings of being an epic winter. I am starting to have a real good feeling. BUT high expectations can lead to a lot of dissappointment too. All I know is that im starting to get ready for SNOW

[Snowstorms]

Certainly going to be hairy if we have to rely on the EPO to deliver a decent winter. Neutral ENSO and +AO composites for Dec-Feb aren't very friendly for snow-lovers.

 

Yeah exactly, if it was a Weak La Nina or Weak El Nino it would have been a different story. The main reason we have a -EPO currently is because of the re-curving typhoons, and I believe the ECMWF was showing a decent Aleutian Low 6-8 days out but it cant stay put for the Winter months or we cant have continuous re-curving typhoons for the rest of the season, its bound to break-up at some point, which i expect around November 2-5, and then were back in a warm-zonal flow?  

 

NATL SST's look very similar to 2008, and the NAO that year ended up slightly negative, coupled with a neutral-slightly positive AO and -EPO. Once the EPO turned more positive come February and the -NAO began breaking down, it got warmer as the SE ridge pushed a bit further north and the rest of the winter sucked as a result (Feb-March).  

 

I could care less about snow in October, I'm more keen on the pattern development around Mid-Late November as that will lay the pavement for December and give us a clue on the outcome of the month. The last few December sucked, so lets see what occurs this season. Its hard to find a ENSO season that has had the same result as these past two years. But if i had to choose based on all the anomalies, I would say; 2008-09, 1966-67, 1961-62, 1980-81 and 1978-79. The only problem is the positive PDO in 1980-81 and the -AMO but I would say those are my main analogs. What do you think? 

[Jonger]

Its almost a little scary how many sources cite that some sort of a harsh winter is on the way (be it cold, snow, or both) for this area. From the feel-good signs (NH snow/ice cover is WAY ahead of the last many years, the arctic sea ice extent was good this summer, enso is neutral to ever so slightly neg)...to the old-school stuff (my winter-hating boss is freaking out because she can't remember a year when her oak had so many acorns, the farmers almanac predicting a very harsh winter)...its all the makings of being an epic winter. I am starting to have a real good feeling. BUT high expectations can lead to a lot of dissappointment too. All I know is that im starting to get ready for SNOW

 

I don't think sea ice really matters that much, most of the cold is generated over land. The teleconnections are more important than anything.

 

Sea Ice even last year at this time was covering most of the arctic, its only a short period of time where the water is open.

[SpartyOn]

Its almost a little scary how many sources cite that some sort of a harsh winter is on the way (be it cold, snow, or both) for this area. From the feel-good signs (NH snow/ice cover is WAY ahead of the last many years, the arctic sea ice extent was good this summer, enso is neutral to ever so slightly neg)...to the old-school stuff (my winter-hating boss is freaking out because she can't remember a year when her oak had so many acorns, the farmers almanac predicting a very harsh winter)...its all the makings of being an epic winter. I am starting to have a real good feeling. BUT high expectations can lead to a lot of dissappointment too. All I know is that im starting to get ready for SNOW

The majority of our garbage winters had such rosey early predictions. If I had a dollar for everytime a refernce to 07-08 was made in a winter prediction I would be sitting good.

[Hoosier]

The majority of our garbage winters had such rosey early predictions. If I had a dollar for everytime a refernce to 07-08 was made in a winter prediction I would be sitting good.

This is sort of anecdotal but I think there's a general tendency - and not necessarily limited to here - to call for good winters and deemphasize potential negative factors. I can't recall the last time that a preponderance of outlooks were warm/below average snow.

[michsnowfreak]

This is sort of anecdotal but I think there's a general tendency - and not necessarily limited to here - to call for good winters and deemphasize potential negative factors. I can't recall the last time that a preponderance of outlooks were warm/below average snow.

I have been getting the farmers almanac since the mid-1990s, and back then, year after year called for mild and low snow just like recent years we see cold and snowy forecast year after year. We were in a trend of milder winters in the 1990s and harsher winters now, so that wasn't far from the truth of the trends. If we hit 40" in the mid-late 1990s I would have been thrilled.....now 40" is like, meh. Hell we see many on here denounce 40" winters as "worst winter ever".

 

People like 2007-08 because it had such heavy snowfall (for the northern/central part of the subforum), and I don't ever recall that analog being used as frequently as it has this year...but 2007-08 wasnt that cold. I do not recall a winter when the forecasts were so unaminous emphasizing the cold as Ive seen this year (I would say Ive actually heard more about cold than snow from all the outlooks that are being tossed around the internet). Thats what makes it interesting. True, in recent years it seems like snowy outlooks dominate the scene, but the only epic fail was really 2011-12. From a local aspect, the last 6 winters have featured 1 dud and 3 spectacular ones (the other 2 had near to just slightly above normal snow). I should mention that beyond the almanacs, my memory of past outlooks is pretty foggy (I can tell you specific weather 120 years ago, but dont ask me for forecast memories/seasonal outlooks past a few years ). I know 2001-02 was forecast to be a harsh winter and it was anything but, but I dont actually remember the cold/snowy forecasts at the time, I just know because it has been mentioned quite often since then.

 

Lets put it this way...I don't see ANY signs that would point to a crappy winter here (meaning mild, and below normal snow). So perhaps I should set the bar at "average" to avoid disappointment.