Winter 2013-14 Discussion

[nwohweather]

If you're going to put out a winter outlook a couple months in advance, at least it should make sense, which this one does.  One of Accuweather's more realistic maps in past years in terms of not hyping winter as a whole (nothing like "Epic Blizzards" or something sensational).

You're right, instead it looks like Tornado Alley for 4 months

[wisconsinwx]

You're right, instead it looks like Tornado Alley for 4 months

 

I take it they don't mean constant severe action for 4 months, it's just that the area they shaded in red will be most prone to severe outbreaks, which given the active pattern we're in here in October, I wouldn't be surprised if the busyness continued into winter.

[Geos]

If the winter storm have severe weather with them, then there's going to be some good Gulf connections feeding that moisture back into the cold sectors of the storms!

[Jonger]

Looks like Ohio will start making up for a lack luster severe season in a few weeks! I've never seen a winter outlook map with severe storms denoted on it before, especially up to Lake Erie!

 

Absolutely classic! 

 

I'm looking forward to a harsh Cleveland winter of severe thunderstorms  . It's rare enough to pull a severe thunderstorm for these parts in January, let alone to have a winter season marked by them!

They must assume the storm track will take low pressure systems over Columbus, seems hard to believe that the Tstorm boundary would be that wide and north.

[SpartyOn]

If the winter storm have severe weather with them, then there's going to be some good Gulf connections feeding that moisture back into the cold sectors of the storms!

Or the convection will rob the system of available moisture in the cold sector. We see this often in major winter storms.

[Geos]

Or the convection will rob the system of available moisture in the cold sector. We see this often in major winter storms.

 

Yeah it the waves are flat or positively tilted especially.

I think Accuweather is just pointing out the higher potential of severe weather, not necessarily with every storm that come across the country.

[Thundersnow12]

Didn't know Accu**** could get that many posts about them

[SpartyOn]

Didn't know Accu**** could get that many posts about them

Accu is so outlandish and frequently wrong that it makes it a wonderful discussion.

[andyhb]

At least it's a change in pace from the rampant east-coast trough/nor'easter happy outlooks I've seen in a lot of others.

[DAFF]

Accuweather has released it's forecast...

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-winter-2013-2014-snow/18574742 

 

 

Where is the Wintry Battle Zone?

Perhaps its Severe (thunder snow) Storms....

[Stebo]

Didn't know Accu**** could get that many posts about them

Under previous circumstances I would completely agree with you, however since JB left Accuweather, they have been at least semi-servicable.

[KokomoWX]

From Paul Pastelok's Facebook Page about Accuweather's Forecast: 

 

 

Our winter forecast was released to the public today. I want to comment first on the highlight map that our team put together. The area that is highlighted as "severe storms" is being misinterpreted. We are not talking about the severe storms that occur in Spring and Summer producing tornadoes, hail and wind damage. However, there can be severe weather at times with stronger systems along the Gulf Coast. But this area describes where one mean storm track sets up during the December through January time period, probably shifting slightly east in February. In this area, stronger areas of lower pressure can form along fronts leading to flooding rain, snow and ice which are severe weather events.

Our team feels that a stronger than normal upper high will meander back and forth from the southwest Atlantic to the eastern Gulf which will force a storm track much of the time from Texas to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, plenty of inside cutters, especially in December into January. The central Plains and parts of the Midwest will have a greater chance for above normal snowfall, along with northern areas of the Great Lakes, upstate New York and northern New England.

Our temperature trend in November is chilly to cold from the northern Rockies to the central Appalachians, warmer in the South and Southwest. Milder in December for much of the East if the upper high reaches full strengthen in the Southeast, stormy and colder in the Rockies into the Plains at times. Gradually colder air works out into the Plains, Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley in January. Later in January or February, more frequent colder air masses reach the east driven by a eastward shift in the storm track. If the upper high holds, then the cold will hold back as well.

The Rockies have been already hit hard and will continue to be hit hard early on in the season with snow and rain. The far West and Southwest could ease back in November, only to pick up again in December and January.

During the week, I will add more things about this winter and what we are looking at. I will go into topics like source regions, colder or warmer than normal, Eurasian snowpack and the correlation to winter in the U.S., blocking, stratospheric warming, and analog years if we can get access to the page when the government settles on something.

 

[wisconsinwx]

The explanation above makes sense, but red implies severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, so it seems misleading I would think to the general public.

[Geos]

The explanation above makes sense, but red implies severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, so it seems misleading I would think to the general public.

 

They should have used another color. Maybe worded it strong storms or strong winter storms (lows).

[A-L-E-K]

Or the convection will rob the system of available moisture in the cold sector. We see this often in major winter storms.

 

 

how many times have mets had to debunk this nonsense

[Stebo]

From Paul Pastelok's Facebook Page about Accuweather's Forecast: 

He basically described the winter of 07-08, which did actually have severe weather in that zone highlighted. If we do end up having a winter like that this year this map will probably be pretty good.

[Stebo]

how many times have mets had to debunk this nonsense

There are instances where it does happen, usually weaker systems where the moisture transfer to the cold sector of the system is usually not as strong anyways. It doesn't always happen like SpartyOn is suggesting, but it isn't never like you are suggesting either.

[Hoosier]

He basically described the winter of 07-08, which did actually have severe weather in that zone highlighted. If we do end up having a winter like that this year this map will probably be pretty good.

Am I the only one who thinks of the hyperactivity and record/near record snows up north as the first thing when 07-08 is mentioned?

[Stebo]

Am I the only one who thinks of the hyperactivity and record/near record snows up north as the first thing when 07-08 is mentioned?

North of I-80 it was a blockbuster winter. I think we had like 80" of snow in Mount Pleasant that winter, the Super Tuesday storm brought 20" alone.

[wisconsinwx]

If this recent major fall storm is any indication, one of my concerns right now is a bounty of rapidly occluding systems before they reach the great lakes, not unlike last year. I'd take a repeat of last year though, sans the slow start.

[andyhb]

The area that is highlighted as "severe storms" is being misinterpreted. We are not talking about the severe storms that occur in Spring and Summer producing tornadoes, hail and wind damage. However, there can be severe weather at times with stronger systems along the Gulf Coast. But this area describes where one mean storm track sets up during the December through January time period, probably shifting slightly east in February. In this area, stronger areas of lower pressure can form along fronts leading to flooding rain, snow and ice which are severe weather events.

 

:lol: ...then say increased snow/rain/icing then.

[snowlover2]

Am I the only one who thinks of the hyperactivity and record/near record snows up north as the first thing when 07-08 is mentioned?

Only thing i think of is the March 7 and 8 2008 Blizzard imby.

[blizzardof96]

North of I-80 it was a blockbuster winter. I think we had like 80" of snow in Mount Pleasant that winter, the Super Tuesday storm brought 20" alone.

07-08 winter was fantastic around these parts. 15/12/07, 2/6/08 and 08/03/08 were most notable with 12+" for the Toronto area. We ended up with just over 100" of snow that winter. Interesting to see the euro monthlies moving towards a similar H5 pattern with a SE ridge,-EPO and central u.s trough. Only concern is that NAO/AO don't look to match up very well with the lower solar regime and most +QBO/neutral ENSO years which tend to have some blocking present. North ATL tripole looks muddled at best though.

[Geos]

07-08 winter was fantastic around these parts. 15/12/07, 2/6/08 and 08/03/08 were most notable with 12+" for the Toronto area. We ended up with just over 100" of snow that winter. Interesting to see the euro monthlies moving towards a similar H5 pattern with a SE ridge,-EPO and central u.s trough. Only concern is that NAO/AO don't look to match up very well with the lower solar regime and most +QBO/neutral ENSO years which tend to have some blocking present. North ATL tripole looks muddled at best though.

 

Didn't Ottawa have like 150" or some ridiculous high amount?

There's youtube video out there where a guy near Ottawa build a huge snowwall next to his driveway that winter.

[blizzardof96]

Didn't Ottawa have like 150" or some ridiculous high amount?

There's youtube video out there where a guy near Ottawa build a huge snowfall next to his driveway that winter.

Yep, Ottawa cashed in an unbelievable amount of snow that winter with just over 170" for the season. You may be thinking of this video...  

[Geos]

Yep, Ottawa cashed in an unbelievable amount of snow that winter with just over 170" for the season. You may be thinking of this video...  

 

Wow, 170"!

I did remember seeing that video. I meant to type snow wall, not snowfall.

This is what I was getting at.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7Iyyx-645c&hd=1

[tornadotony]

Am I the only one who thinks of the hyperactivity and record/near record snows up north as the first thing when 07-08 is mentioned?

That winter was certifiably insane.  The fluctuations between major snow/ice and major severe throughout December and January, and then major snow and cold all through February and March was just unbelievable.  Absolutely one of my favorite weather periods ever.

[WxMidwest]

I think the storm track is great for this time of year, once the mean jet moves further south for the winter, it's going to be prime.

[Geos]

I think the storm track is great for this time of year, once the mean jet moves further south for the winter, it's going to be prime.

 

+1

 

In October the summer pattern is still on it's last gasps, but by November it's gone and the new winter pattern starts taking hold.

[Stebo]

I think the storm track is great for this time of year, once the mean jet moves further south for the winter, it's going to be prime.

 

I agree, there has been tons of activity West of here and across Canada, and that looks to continue through the rest of the month. The fact we are seeing such hyperactivity is a good sign.