Geos Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 great Map love the GIS, good luck Thanks! Hopefully I can get at least a couple sub forums right! Only additional thing that I would add, is that I think the ONI value will get to 0.3-0.4 by February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 I thought I'd throw my 2 cents in regarding a winter outlook. The map below reflects me thoughts that are based on the following; ENSO conditions near neutral or slightly on the La Niña side. -PDO phase Greenland Blocking Dominant -NAO given the temperature profile in the North Atlantic Low solar activity Cross polar flow at times. Note this is for November - March. This doesn't mean the pattern will be like this for all those months, all the time, but I think for the most part will see some sort of jet stream configuration like I drew out. Btw: the map was drawn with ArcGIS 10.0 software. 2013-2014winter.png That would pretty much kick butt. Just give me average and I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 20, 2013 Author Share Posted September 20, 2013 He already has a 14-15 winter outlook too. He is a worse forecaster than me. Yeah I saw that. I don't get why he forecasts so far in advance, and to give exact numbers up to a year out...well, it makes you lose credibility. But we've been down that road before. Nonetheless, I'm interested to see how the overall winter idea works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/09/2013-2014-updated-snowfall-map-chicago.html The Weather Center released some form of a snow outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 It's the lack of moisture right now, that has me wondering if the reports of a snowy winter might be premature? Looks like we need a pattern change of some sort to bring us some more moisture to this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 It's the lack of moisture right now, that has me wondering if the reports of a snowy winter might be premature? Looks like we need a pattern change of some sort to bring us some more moisture to this region. If you believe in the LRC then the new pattern should show itself during October. Been through enough early autumn dry spells to know that it doesn't necessarily mean November and beyond will be dry as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 If you believe in the LRC then the new pattern should show itself during October. Been through enough early autumn dry spells to know that it doesn't necessarily mean November and beyond will be dry as well. Can't put much stock in medium and long range, but looks like some classic Fall rain and wind storms are potentially in the cards for early October, which would be a decent sign with the LRC to be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 5, 2013 Share Posted October 5, 2013 A picture that a friend posted on Facebook from Deadwood SD today. It has me wishing for winter. November snows have been relatively rare around here lately. I'm hoping this is the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 ^^ Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 A picture that a friend posted on Facebook from Deadwood SD today. It has me wishing for winter. November snows have been relatively rare around here lately. I'm hoping this is the year. Deadwood SD 10052013.jpg This might be too much snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Snowed in..... Perhaps there is a sidewalk with a wooden snow man and a thermometer on the other side of the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 This might be too much snow is there such a thing ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 SAI Update: I checked the GFS, GEM and EURO for Siberia, and all have temps plunging from 40s and 50s to 20s and 30s and multiple massive snow storms extending Siberian snow cover extent to nearly all of Siberia in the next week... Also checked a line of Russian cities south of the 60th parallel, a bunch of "irsk" and "osk" cities and they all show snow in the next 7 so things look good for Siberian snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Here's some CFS temperature forecasts from weatheronline.co.uk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 Brett Anderson from AccuWX says the new Euro seasonal? released today shows neutral ENSO conditions, an early winter strong NE Pacific/Gulf of Alaska ridge, and a central trough for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Accuweather has released it's forecast... http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-winter-2013-2014-snow/18574742 Where is the Wintry Battle Zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Accuweather has released it's forecast... http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-winter-2013-2014-snow/18574742 Where is the Wintry Battle Zone? 20 miles north of Kokomo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 20 miles north of Kokomo? Has anyone ever seen a winter forecast map with severe storms on it before??? Maybe that is the Wintry Battle Zone? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Looks like Ohio will start making up for a lack luster severe season in a few weeks! I've never seen a winter outlook map with severe storms denoted on it before, especially up to Lake Erie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Looks like Ohio will start making up for a lack luster severe season in a few weeks! I've never seen a winter outlook map with severe storms denoted on it before, especially up to Lake Erie! Lol, no kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Accuweather has released it's forecast... http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-winter-2013-2014-snow/18574742 Where is the Wintry Battle Zone? I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 I don't know. I just can't believe there would be cold shots in the upper midwest during the winter. I mean, I figured it would surely be 80F everyday there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 This map looks a lot like the winter of 2007-2008, which this fall has been very similar to thus far. I actually do agree very much with this outlook, maybe not to a T but pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 those are always wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 This map looks a lot like the winter of 2007-2008, which this fall has been very similar to thus far. I actually do agree very much with this outlook, maybe not to a T but pretty close. Exactly! First winter I thought of. Lol, yeah they're missing the wintry battle zone this year. So a mild start on the East Coast, but how about afterwards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 This map looks a lot like the winter of 2007-2008, which this fall has been very similar to thus far. I actually do agree very much with this outlook, maybe not to a T but pretty close. East coasters must be freaking out over that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Lol @ accu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Looks like Ohio will start making up for a lack luster severe season in a few weeks! I've never seen a winter outlook map with severe storms denoted on it before, especially up to Lake Erie! Absolutely classic! I'm looking forward to a harsh Cleveland winter of severe thunderstorms . It's rare enough to pull a severe thunderstorm for these parts in January, let alone to have a winter season marked by them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 This map looks a lot like the winter of 2007-2008, which this fall has been very similar to thus far. I actually do agree very much with this outlook, maybe not to a T but pretty close. I'll take a repeat of 2007-2008. Wouldn't mind another blizzard like March 7 and 8 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 This map looks a lot like the winter of 2007-2008, which this fall has been very similar to thus far. I actually do agree very much with this outlook, maybe not to a T but pretty close. If you're going to put out a winter outlook a couple months in advance, at least it should make sense, which this one does. One of Accuweather's more realistic maps in past years in terms of not hyping winter as a whole (nothing like "Epic Blizzards" or something sensational). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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