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Winter 2013-14 Discussion


Hoosier

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I thought I'd throw my 2 cents in regarding a winter outlook. 

 

The map below reflects me thoughts that are based on the following;

 

ENSO conditions near neutral or slightly on the La Niña side.

-PDO phase

Greenland Blocking

Dominant -NAO given the temperature profile in the North Atlantic

Low solar activity

Cross polar flow at times.

 

Note this is for November - March. This doesn't mean the pattern will be like this for all those months, all the time, but I think for the most part will see some sort of jet stream configuration like I drew out.

 

Btw: the map was drawn with ArcGIS 10.0 software.

 

attachicon.gif2013-2014winter.png

 

That would pretty much kick butt. Just give me average and I'll be happy.

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He already has a 14-15 winter outlook too. He is a worse forecaster than me. :lmao:

Yeah I saw that. I don't get why he forecasts so far in advance, and to give exact numbers up to a year out...well, it makes you lose credibility. But we've been down that road before. Nonetheless, I'm interested to see how the overall winter idea works out.

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It's the lack of moisture right now, that has me wondering if the reports of a snowy winter might be premature?  Looks like we need a pattern change of some sort to bring us some more moisture to this region.

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It's the lack of moisture right now, that has me wondering if the reports of a snowy winter might be premature?  Looks like we need a pattern change of some sort to bring us some more moisture to this region.

 

If you believe in the LRC then the new pattern should show itself during October. Been through enough early autumn dry spells to know that it doesn't necessarily mean November and beyond will be dry as well.

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If you believe in the LRC then the new pattern should show itself during October. Been through enough early autumn dry spells to know that it doesn't necessarily mean November and beyond will be dry as well.

 

Can't put much stock in medium and long range, but looks like some classic Fall rain and wind storms are potentially in the cards for early October, which would be a decent sign with the LRC to be considered.

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  • 2 weeks later...

SAI Update:

I checked the GFS, GEM and EURO for Siberia, and all have temps plunging from 40s and 50s to 20s and 30s and multiple massive snow storms extending Siberian snow cover extent to nearly all of Siberia in the next week...

Also checked a line of Russian cities south of the 60th parallel, a bunch of "irsk" and "osk" cities and they all show snow in the next 7 so things look good for Siberian snow

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This map looks a lot like the winter of 2007-2008, which this fall has been very similar to thus far. I actually do agree very much with this outlook, maybe not to a T but pretty close.

 

Exactly! First winter I thought of.

 

Lol, yeah they're missing the wintry battle zone this year.

 

So a mild start on the East Coast, but how about afterwards?

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Looks like Ohio will start making up for a lack luster severe season in a few weeks! I've never seen a winter outlook map with severe storms denoted on it before, especially up to Lake Erie!

 

Absolutely classic! 

 

I'm looking forward to a harsh Cleveland winter of severe thunderstorms :lmao: . It's rare enough to pull a severe thunderstorm for these parts in January, let alone to have a winter season marked by them!

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This map looks a lot like the winter of 2007-2008, which this fall has been very similar to thus far. I actually do agree very much with this outlook, maybe not to a T but pretty close.

I'll take a repeat of 2007-2008. Wouldn't mind another blizzard like March 7 and 8 2008.

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This map looks a lot like the winter of 2007-2008, which this fall has been very similar to thus far. I actually do agree very much with this outlook, maybe not to a T but pretty close.

 

If you're going to put out a winter outlook a couple months in advance, at least it should make sense, which this one does.  One of Accuweather's more realistic maps in past years in terms of not hyping winter as a whole (nothing like "Epic Blizzards" or something sensational).

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