OHweather Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 So basically it seems like you're calling for a winter not unlike last, but less snowy on the Eastern Seaboard and perhaps a bit better in parts of the Midwest. Somewhat yes. I don't expect the Mid-Atlantic to see any significant snow storms this winter unless the pattern temporarily shifts. This winter could be pretty active across much of the Midwest/Great Lakes if I'm correct, and hopefully snowy for portions of the region. Thanks for sharing OHweather. Not a problem Awesome stuff. What were your overall top analogs? One that stands out is 08-09...matches the Pacific/Indian Ocean SSTs and Atlantic as well for that matter...the QBO is a decent match as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 So basically it seems like you're calling for a winter not unlike last, but less snowy on the Eastern Seaboard and perhaps a bit better in parts of the Midwest. Somewhat yes. I don't expect the Mid-Atlantic to see any significant snow storms this winter unless the pattern temporarily shifts. This winter could be pretty active across much of the Midwest/Great Lakes if I'm correct, and hopefully snowy for portions of the region. Thanks for sharing OHweather. Not a problem Awesome stuff. What were your overall top analogs? One that stands out is 08-09...matches the Pacific/Indian Ocean SSTs and Atlantic as well for that matter...the QBO is a decent match as well. I'd donate a kidney for 08-09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Here's my updated winter outlook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Ugh, a good winter coming up possibly and I'll be in the middle of a frozen desert known as Edmonton. Calling it right now...big time blizzard is en route. It'll make GHD and 1999 look like child's play. All because the universe hates me. I'm rooting for your prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 I'd donate a kidney for 08-09. Lol, yeah same here. That was the second best winter in the last 10 years. Great and very well laid out winter prediction OHweather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 I'd donate a kidney for 08-09. It is a top analog but yeah it is gonna be very hard to duplicate that especially here. No big epic storms but snowed a ton that gave way to the deepest snows i have seen here and have not seen since the winter of 95-96 back east. 08-09 was the snowiest winter ever for me and here for that matter which still amazes me considering the lack of a bomb unlike the former #1 holder 66-67 which had the epic Jan blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 If any of you have any questions or feedback, please say something! Great writeup, although I don't believe 2011-2012 was a strong Nina, 2010-2011 was more along those lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Great writeup, although I don't believe 2011-2012 was a strong Nina, 2010-2011 was more along those lines. Yep. But yeah, great write up OHweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 Nice work OHWeather. You obviously put a lot of thought and research into the writeup. Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Nice job, OHWeather. Thanks for putting that all together. I know it takes quite a bit of time and effort to research all of that, and it is appreciated. I like having some kind of idea of what to expect for this coming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Lock it in! That's probably the coldest outlook I've seen by this source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Lock it in! That's probably the coldest outlook I've seen by this source. Lol, pretty sure the entire country won't be below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Lock it in! That's probably the coldest outlook I've seen by this source. So I need a chart to explain the difference between bitterly, biting and piercingly cold because none of them mean a damn thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 So I need a chart to explain the difference between bitterly, biting and piercingly cold because none of them mean a damn thing. Yeah really. I guess they are using the same terms that they started using in the early 1800s when this almanac started! Maybe those terms all meant something different way back when. But yeah, I agree with Andy above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 So I need a chart to explain the difference between bitterly, biting and piercingly cold because none of them mean a damn thing. Lol I was going to say the same thing. I remember back in the 80s when TWC first started (a far cry better than today's clusterfock) their national 5-day forecasts had "very cold", "frigid", etc, instead of temperatures. EDIT: Around the 4:40 mark is an example of the above... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 I really wonder if we can get a -20F or colder around these parts... i'd have to dig, but its been a few years. I wouldn't mind a -25F . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Love the radar and imagery of the above video... Childhood memories of TWC. Once again the Christmas forecast for Detroit was brown and wet. Some things never change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Love the radar and imagery of the above video... Childhood memories of TWC. Once again the Christmas forecast for Detroit was brown and wet. Some things never change. Haha. Man just hearing the xmas music in the local on the 8s and the commercials kind of got me pumped for snowstorm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Wow, that's quite a video Cyclone! I started watching TWC around 1990 and I remember those local forecasts with the plain text and lists of observations. Seeing those commercials with the past hair styles and clothes makes it seem the 1980s were really retro! lol Been a long time since this area has seen anything past -11 or -12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Lol, pretty sure the entire country won't be below average. Looks like they are going for a repeat of this.. Coldest outlook i have seen from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 All those adjective that the FA uses is to drag in readers. It wouldn't be eye catching if it read, below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Lol, pretty sure the entire country won't be below average. Looks like they are going for a repeat of this.. Coldest outlook i have seen from them. There isn't enough aerosols in the upper atmosphere to get that now days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 looks like a prolonged period of deep warming should really warm lake levels back up heading into winter. the other shoe was bound to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 I thought I'd throw my 2 cents in regarding a winter outlook. The map below reflects me thoughts that are based on the following; ENSO conditions near neutral or slightly on the La Niña side. -PDO phase Greenland Blocking Dominant -NAO given the temperature profile in the North Atlantic Low solar activity Cross polar flow at times. Note this is for November - March. This doesn't mean the pattern will be like this for all those months, all the time, but I think for the most part will see some sort of jet stream configuration like I drew out. Btw: the map was drawn with ArcGIS 10.0 software. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 20, 2013 Author Share Posted September 20, 2013 Chad Evans released his winter outlook today. He's going with neutral ENSO conditions. For the Lafayette area, DJF temps slightly below average and above average precip with snowfall a little above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Right now it looks like neutral or a very weak El nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Right now it looks like neutral or a very weak El nino. That should keep the jet stream somewhere across the middle of the country and not too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 If I had to lean one way this upcoming winter it would be neutral to a weak el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 I thought I'd throw my 2 cents in regarding a winter outlook. The map below reflects me thoughts that are based on the following; ENSO conditions near neutral or slightly on the La Niña side. -PDO phase Greenland Blocking Dominant -NAO given the temperature profile in the North Atlantic Low solar activity Cross polar flow at times. Note this is for November - March. This doesn't mean the pattern will be like this for all those months, all the time, but I think for the most part will see some sort of jet stream configuration like I drew out. Btw: the map was drawn with ArcGIS 10.0 software. 2013-2014winter.png great Map love the GIS, good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 Chad Evans released his winter outlook today. He's going with neutral ENSO conditions. For the Lafayette area, DJF temps slightly below average and above average precip with snowfall a little above average. He already has a 14-15 winter outlook too. He is a worse forecaster than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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