michsnowfreak Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Just peaked at it again and torchartie probably had to go change his shorts because now it has a all out torch from Dec through March. Link? I use this for a link...most certainly doesnt have an all out torch but it backed off on the extreme cold. Updates frequently as well http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Unless there is some overwhelming torch signal, strong nino, etc....I usually go into winter optimistic. no way in hell will everyone be pleased, but we are far enough north that winter always shows, and will probably please one or more of the groups (snowstorm, frequent snowfall, snowcover, cold, etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Meh. Aside from those two weeks in January when the blizzard hit, that winter was a disaster snowstorm-wise. Still, it was worth it just to have something like the Blizzard of '99 happen. It was also warm, which was a plus. Because of the epic January...people always forget the March snowstorms. 8.3" on Mar 5/6 then another 4.2" on Mar 9th. Small potatoes compared to January, but blew anything we had seen the prior 4 winters outta the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Link? I use this for a link...most certainly doesnt have an all out torch but it backed off on the extreme cold. Updates frequently as well http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Unless there is some overwhelming torch signal, strong nino, etc....I usually go into winter optimistic. no way in hell will everyone be pleased, but we are far enough north that winter always shows, and will probably please one or more of the groups (snowstorm, frequent snowfall, snowcover, cold, etc). SV.... This does not look to bad though.. Oh and you know i take such modeling with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 SV.... This does not look to bad though.. Oh and you know i take such modeling with a grain of salt. Just guessing, but does it show an above average October? If so with the weak -ENSO and an above average October, this image would make sense and it would put the mean storm track out of the SW right into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 SV.... This does not look to bad though.. Oh and you know i take such modeling with a grain of salt. That would suggest a storm track into the Great Lakes. Looks like a possible west based block with that + area over Baffin Is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Just guessing, but does it show an above average October? If so with the weak -ENSO and an above average October, this image would make sense and it would put the mean storm track out of the SW right into the region.Such a north south gradient of cold to warm would be a boom for our region wrt snowfall from the link harry posted. Far better than the bitter cold maps that were shown last week.No matter...as said this is all grain of salt fodder for the upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Just guessing, but does it show an above average October? If so with the weak -ENSO and an above average October, this image would make sense and it would put the mean storm track out of the SW right into the region. Yep. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Yep. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Which is a good thing right? Think 2007-08 with its record snowfall there was some rainstorms too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Which is a good thing right? Think 2007-08 with its record snowfall there was some rainstorms too. Yep but i would lean more towards a 08-09 type outcome. See enso and QBO for starters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Yep but i would lean more towards a 08-09 type outcome. See enso and QBO for starters.I will take it!!!! Something like the crazy cold the cfs showed a few days ago would probably bring a winter like 1962-63. Bitter cold and lots of snowcover but just 29.7" total snowfall at Detroit. There is a group here that wants big snowstorms, tires of constant nickel and dimes, and hates prolonged extreme cold. 1962-63 redux would be their nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 I'll pass on another 2008-09. Kinda sucked in this area. Personally, I'd rather have a 1976-77 repeat. Just to see the wailing and gnashing. But I'm evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Yep but i would lean more towards a 08-09 type outcome. See enso and QBO for starters. I'd take that winter again also. It started snowing fairly early and it snowed to the end of March. QBO would be definitely something to look for. Index is about the same as it was at this time in 2008. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Yep but i would lean more towards a 08-09 type outcome. See enso and QBO for starters. Great, another lackluster svr season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 30, 2013 Author Share Posted July 30, 2013 I'll pass on another 2008-09. Kinda sucked in this area. That was a north of I-80 winter IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 30, 2013 Author Share Posted July 30, 2013 Great, another lackluster svr season. 09 was a hotbed of activity compared to this year. You have to wonder if these past 2 years are a blip that will go away next year or if it's part of a quieter stretch that lasts several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Great, another lackluster svr season. 10-11 is still kinda in play as well. Just need a bit stronger of a nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 07-08, 08-09 and 10-11 probably aren't too bad of analogs for this upcoming winter, if the enso goes more negative then you can lean more 07-08 and 10-11, if it stays around where it is then probably lean more 08-09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 That was a north of I-80 winter IIRC. Yeah. Lots of sloppy events for us. 10-11 is still kinda in play as well. Just need a bit stronger of a nina. Don't think we're getting that strong of a Nina, but 2010-11 would work. Just have to move the mix line about 30 miles south with GHD II. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 30, 2013 Author Share Posted July 30, 2013 Yeah. Lots of sloppy events for us. I only remember a few things from that winter...the December ice storm, the snowstorm that nailed Indy and the big cold in mid January. Anything else that stands out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Sounds like a totally different scenario in central IN for the winter of 08-09. That was a wet and cold winter here. 75" of snow from Thanksgiving to the last small event in early April. One non snow event that sticks in my mind, was the flood of warmer air right after Christmas. A foot of water laden snow melted in under a day and causing flooding issues - rained a good deal. By New Years eve the area was back in the deep freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 I only remember a few things from that winter...the December ice storm, the snowstorm that nailed Indy and the big cold in mid January. Anything else that stands out? Nope, not for us anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Sounds like a totally different scenario in central IN for the winter of 08-09. That was a wet and cold winter here. 75" of snow from Thanksgiving to the last small event in early April. One non snow event that sticks in my mind, was the flood of warmer air right after Christmas. A foot of water laden snow melted in under a day and causing flooding issues - rained a good deal. By New Years eve the area was back in the deep freeze. That meltdown sucked. Besides that my only other issue with that winter was how it basically ended come Feb. Had tons of snow despite lacking the big one up till Feb. Give me Dec/Jan 2008-09 and Feb/Mar 2008 and it would be the perfect winter. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 09 was a hotbed of activity compared to this year. You have to wonder if these past 2 years are a blip that will go away next year or if it's part of a quieter stretch that lasts several years. The lack of systems to actually have good model agreement and be more impressive synoptically since last April 14th is rather frustrating (Christmas and Jan 29/30 were two and I suppose 5/19-20 and 5/31 could be thrown in there but really not a whole lot more). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Burning bushes are starting to turn, haven't seen a Robin in days and blackbirds are gathering. Could be a front sided winter at last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 31, 2013 Share Posted July 31, 2013 Lock in the current pattern until next April. I want a brutally cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Lock in the current pattern until next April. I want a brutally cold winter. Do you pay the heating bill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Do you pay the heating bill? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 07-08, 08-09 and 10-11 probably aren't too bad of analogs for this upcoming winter, if the enso goes more negative then you can lean more 07-08 and 10-11, if it stays around where it is then probably lean more 08-09. Ugh, a good winter coming up possibly and I'll be in the middle of a frozen desert known as Edmonton. Calling it right now...big time blizzard is en route. It'll make GHD and 1999 look like child's play. All because the universe hates me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Ugh, a good winter coming up possibly and I'll be in the middle of a frozen desert known as Edmonton. Calling it right now...big time blizzard is en route. It'll make GHD and 1999 look like child's play. All because the universe hates me. Hey, '12-'13 wasn't too bad for you IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 I am liking the looks of this winter so far. JAS/SON PDO has a strong correlation with Lakes snowfall, and PDO is nearly identical to last year... PNA has also been negative.. ENSO has been neutral/negative.. Last thing we need to drop into place is the October Eurasian snow cover extent advance and maybe we can reload another winter like last, but start it in Dec instead of Jan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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