Winter 2013-14 Discussion

[Harry]

What would make it worse is that this was an epic east coast winter. Here...winters biggest storm was 3.0", and that was April 16/17, and April saw 4.7" of the 18.0"!!! There was a 2.9" storm in Dec and in Feb as well, but still. The peak depth that winter was just 3", though we somehow managed a White Christmas as well as 35 days of 1"+ snowcover. Since the time of weather boards, this region has not known true snow-hole. Not at all. Even the terrible winters saw more snow than they should have. I just hope we never have to see a winter like this again!

 

Reasons why those north of i80 and the further west you go in this forum ( till you reach say MN )  suffered so horribly in the 50s/early 60s ( till mid 60s for some )  ala -ao/-nao which dominated alot of those winters and thus see 17-18/62-63 for a great example. In the case of 62-63 we not only had a negative AO/NAO but as well the EPO was negative while the PNA was a bit on the positive side. Outside of a nino you don't get a better set up for a big east coast winter then that which usually sucks for us. No EPO or PNA data for the other years so cannot say for sure. For this winter it will be about the PNA unless by chance the AO/NAO takes a nose dive. As long as we have the -EPO atleast. It goes positive most will torch ( Midwest/Eastcoast etc ) unless again the AO/NAO comes in for the rescue.

[Harry]

I will have to look up the dates, but I think Detroit once had 2 straight sub 20 inch winters in a row. Gramps never mentioned that as a kid.

 

The closest i could find was 36-37 with 12.9" and 37-38 with 22.6..

 

The 30s and 40s had a ton of stinkers. Heck between the winter of 1943-44 and 48-49 the highest total for any of those winters was 30.0" for Detroit. Only 42-43 and 49-50 managed to sneak in above 40.. ALL the rest were between 13.7" and 30" for the whole decade..

[Minnesota Meso]

At MPS compared to Detroit for the 5 coldest years in the long term. based on Detroit's coldest winters, seasonal snowfall...not just Dec-Feb

 

 

1903-1904...46.01

1874-1875... no data

1917-1918...30.8

1976-1977...43.6

1962-1963...34.5

 

All 5 are below our long term average of 47"

 

based on that comparison I think most of the subforum could do quite well this year, although if this system for Monday-Wed drops a bit south all bets are off.  If it drops south we will get heavy snow, other than that It will be clippers for MSP

[Minnesota Meso]

GFS has a flat out blizzard for Duluth MN Tues night into Wednesday.

[dmc76]

What would make it worse is that this was an epic east coast winter. Here...winters biggest storm was 3.0", and that was April 16/17, and April saw 4.7" of the 18.0"!!! There was a 2.9" storm in Dec and in Feb as well, but still. The peak depth that winter was just 3", though we somehow managed a White Christmas as well as 35 days of 1"+ snowcover. Since the time of weather boards, this region has not known true snow-hole. Not at all. Even the terrible winters saw more snow than they should have. I just hope we never have to see a winter like this again!

 

:

[michsnowfreak]

Ok that doesn't help much, but like I expected the top 5 coldest years were prior to 1980.  Now how did the 5 coldest years from 1980-2010 compare with snowfall amounts.  I will take your coldest years prior to 1980 and post 1980 and compare them to here, it may take me till tomorrow to get the figures, but with you being further south than me it could be interesting.

5 coldest winters since 1980...(actually have to do 6 because of a tie)...

 

#1) 1981-82 (21.9F) - 74.0" - 89 days of 1"+ snwcvr

#2) 1985-86 (23.6F) - 54.2" - 70 days of 1"+ snwcvr

#3) 1993-94 (23.9F) - 45.8" - 49 days of 1"+ snwcvr

#4) 1983-84 (23.0F) - 51.8" - 61 days of 1"+ snwcvr

#5) 2002-03 (24.1F) - 60.9" - 63 days of 1"+ snwcvr

#5) 2010-11 (24.1F) - 69.1" - 80 days of 1"+ snwcvr

 

WOW...the results since 1980 are great! Avg snowfall 59.3" and avg 1"+ snowcover days 69 days...both WAY above normal.

 

So I guess moral of the story...based on recent trends...a cold winter is excellent news for snowlovers here.

[michsnowfreak]

The closest i could find was 36-37 with 12.9" and 37-38 with 22.6..

 

The 30s and 40s had a ton of stinkers. Heck between the winter of 1943-44 and 48-49 the highest total for any of those winters was 30.0" for Detroit. Only 42-43 and 49-50 managed to sneak in above 40.. ALL the rest were between 13.7" and 30" for the whole decade..

Yup....its such an anomalous time in our climate history, I remember when I first started digging in the records and saw those decades I was like WOW. But a closer look at everything...liquid equiv, hourly precip, snow depth, etc, even local newspapers...there is zero reason to suspect any of the data. It was just a terrible, terrible time for lovers of big storms or deep snow here. Even though a few of the winters were excellent for days of snowcover or cold weather (44-45 and 47-48), only ONE winter in the 1940s saw a snow depth exceed 9", and that was 1942-43 with peak depth 11". Six of the ten winters that decade did not see a 6+ inch depth.

[michsnowfreak]

Certainly not after 1906. 

 

Detroit had several instances of sub-30' winters though (the 1940s were miserable). 

 

EDIT: Since 1881, officially there was never two sub-20" winters in a row.

Detroit hasnt had a sub-20" winter since 1968-69. Lets keep it that way. We were ready to do it in 1982-83 easy, but 11 inches of snow after March 19 let us squeak by with 20". Weve had a few winters since finish around 24", but thats been the bar. Epic storms notwithstanding, this is a great era for snowfall here.

[Minnesota Meso]

5 coldest winters since 1980...(actually have to do 6 because of a tie)...

 

#1) 1981-82 (21.9F) - 74.0" - 89 days of 1"+ snwcvr

#2) 1985-86 (23.6F) - 54.2" - 70 days of 1"+ snwcvr

#3) 1993-94 (23.9F) - 45.8" - 49 days of 1"+ snwcvr

#4) 1983-84 (23.0F) - 51.8" - 61 days of 1"+ snwcvr

#5) 2002-03 (24.1F) - 60.9" - 63 days of 1"+ snwcvr

#5) 2010-11 (24.1F) - 69.1" - 80 days of 1"+ snwcvr

 

WOW...the results since 1980 are great! Avg snowfall 59.3" and avg 1"+ snowcover days 69 days...both WAY above normal.

 

So I guess moral of the story...based on recent trends...a cold winter is excellent news for snowlovers here.

 

 

ok compare those years to MSP

 

81-82...Highest ever 95"

85-86...69.5"

93-94...55.7"

02-03..35"

10-11..86.6"

 

Frankly I see a good correlation between your snowfall years and ours, it would be real cool if D. Sutherland could look into what is similar and what is different

 

81-82.... 95"  highest ever

[Harry]

Yup....its such an anomalous time in our climate history, I remember when I first started digging in the records and saw those decades I was like WOW. But a closer look at everything...liquid equiv, hourly precip, snow depth, etc, even local newspapers...there is zero reason to suspect any of the data. It was just a terrible, terrible time for lovers of big storms or deep snow here. Even though a few of the winters were excellent for days of snowcover or cold weather (44-45 and 47-48), only ONE winter in the 1940s saw a snow depth exceed 9", and that was 1942-43 with peak depth 11". Six of the ten winters that decade did not see a 6+ inch depth.

 

 

Hunch is the epic droughts of the 20s/30s etc had a bit to do with it. Keep in mind that it was followed by the -ao/nao regime and a very active solar regime as well.

 

For comparison..

1910-1940

 

vs 1980-2011

 

We were alot drier back when.

[Harry]

ok compare those years to MSP

 

81-82...Highest ever 95"

85-86...69.5"

93-94...55.7"

02-03..35"

10-11..86.6"

 

Frankly I see a good correlation between your snowfall years and ours, it would be real cool if D. Sutherland could look into what is similar and what is different

 

81-82.... 95"  highest ever

 

81-82 was very unusual in that it was a rare share the wealth winter as not only did most in this region share in on it but as well much of the east coast from the se on up the coast. One of the reasons why on a national scale i think it was one of the best ever and is among the most underrated winters of any. Sure a few got shafted but they were the exception from what i have seen.

[Hoosier]

I'm far from being good with seasonal predictions but this has to be one of the more challenging winters to figure out in terms of temps.  The expected predominant +AO/+NAO regime would normally make me lean on the warm side but I think it'd be foolish to dismiss what we've seen so far with the Pacific.

[andyhb]

81-82 was very unusual in that it was a rare share the wealth winter as not only did most in this region share in on it but as well much of the east coast from the se on up the coast. One of the reasons why on a national scale i think it was one of the best ever and is among the most underrated winters of any. Sure a few got shafted but they were the exception from what i have seen.

 

You know it is a share the wealth type of winter when St. Louis gets a major blizzard (Jan 30th/31st of that winter).

[DAFF]

Here is another theory to think about. Cold weather is good for snow measurement for the inverse proportion of snow ratios. When rain falls it is entered as a liquid amount and with snow there is no correction for temperature deviations. So if two winters have identical liquid amounts fall in the season the one with a lower temperature will come out as the snow fall winner.

 

It would be fun to go back through the records and correct the snow amounts WRT temperature and then see the results.I bet it would paint a whole different picture.

[Harry]

You know it is a share the wealth type of winter when St. Louis gets a major blizzard (Jan 30th/31st of that winter).

 

Yep.. Most ended up above ( many well above ) their seasonal averages as far as snowfall goes. Thing about it as well was it kept on going into early April which ofcourse helped spread it out. Total here was 85.5"..

[Hoosier]

LOT winter outlook

 

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/Winter%20Outlook%202013-2014.pdf

[The_Global_Warmer]

You know it is a share the wealth type of winter when St. Louis gets a major blizzard (Jan 30th/31st of that winter).

 

Not a blizzard but a once in forever training thundershower event of snow. 

[Hoosier]

Sure looks like this is shaping up to be a colder than average winter for most of us.  The EPO dominance has been something to behold and even if there's a prolonged positive stretch at some point (which there are no signs of happening anytime soon), it would likely be too late to wipe out the cold anomalies that will have built up. 

[Chicago WX]

5% chance of a weak El Nino. 0% chance of a moderate El Nino.

 

More likely, cold neutral conditions prevail.

 

First guess for LAF: 10-40".

 

 

Good ENSO call...too low on snowfall.

 

We've now gone two winters in a row without a single 6"+ storm, so give me one of those and I'll be happy. 

 

Geez...still waiting. Has to happen soon.

 

Looking for a cold start to winter!

ImageUploadedByTapatalk1374964839.131570.jpg

 

Sorta.

 

I don't want to be greedy but it would be nice if we could get another 10 incher this winter, preferably before late March. It happened in 06-07 and 07-08 so we know it's possible in b2b winters.

 

Congrats.

 

Not a huge fan of this winter. We are due for a global pattern change over North America and I could see that run right through winter. I think last year was letdown in some respects to March, a ton of potential, just never came together. The PAC ridging this April-July is what we need in the winter.

 

Great call.

 

Lock in the current pattern until next April. I want a brutally cold winter.

 

Your wish was pretty much granted.

 

Lock it in! That's probably the coldest outlook I've seen by this source.

 

 

Dare I say...not bad? Well, except for the West.

 

+AO isn't the end of the world. If you get a -EPO everything will be fine. 

 

JoMo FTW.

 

1981 and 2001 are my 2 choices right now...........yeah, quite the difference lol. Maybe something in the middle?

 

Partial credit.

 

The GoA is going to be a thorn in the side of all winter weather fans. Bad time for such a feature to rear its head.

 

No credit.

 

OPI looking good so far

 

Nailed it.

[Chicago WX]

Just poking a little fun.

 

I was bored and read through the thread tonight, just to see what the vibe was like before this winter started. Interesting as usual.

[beavis1729]

Here are some fun statistics on cold and snow from NWS Duluth.  These stats also contain a fitting exclamation point to the 2013-14 winter, as Duluth set a new record for consecutive sub-zero days (23).

 

And - January 6, 1909 was a bit chilly in the Upper Midwest.

 

Extreme Cold Temperatures

 

Coldest Low Temperatures

Duluth, Minnesota

1.  -41F, January 2, 1885
T2.  -39F, February 2, 1996
T2.  -39F, January 15, 1972
T4.  -38F, four dates tied, January 17, 1982 most recent  

 

International Falls, MN  

1.  -55F, January 6, 1909
2.  -54F, January 7, 1909
3.  -50F, January 11, 1909
4.  -48F, February 8, 1909
T5.  -46F, January 21, 2011 and January 6, 1968

 

Coldest High Temperatures

Duluth, Minnesota  

1.  -22F, January 9, 1982
T2.  -21F, February 2, 1996
T2.  -21F, January 18, 1994
T2.  -21F, January 14, 1972
T5.  -20F, four dates tied, January 19, 1985 most recent  

 

International Falls, MN

1.  -29F, January 6,1909
T2.  -28F, January 19, 1985
T2.  -28F, January 14, 1972
4.  -26F, January 27, 1966
T5.  -25F, February 1, 1996 and January 16, 1982

 

Consecutive Days Highs Below Zero

Duluth, Minnesota   

1.  7 days, ended on January 19, 1994
2.  6 days, ended on January 23, 1963
T3. 5 days, 6 different streaks tied for 3rd place.  

 

International Falls, MN

1. 18 days, ended on December 31, 1924
2. 13 days, ended on January 15, 1912
3. 10 days, ended on December 17, 1919
T4.  9 days, ended on January 7, 1968
T4.  9 days, ended on January 26, 1963

 

Consecutive Days Lows Below Zero

Duluth, Minnesota

1.    23 days ended on February 11, 2014

T2.  22 days, ended on January 31, 1963
T2.  22 days, ended on February 7, 1936
4.  20 days, ended on January 18, 1979
T5.  18 days, 3 different streaks tied for 4th place

 

International Falls, MN

1. 35 days, ended on January 22, 1977
2. 34 days, ended on February 4, 1950
3. 31 days, ended on February 13, 1959
T4. 30 days, ended on January 26, 1982
T4. 30 days, ended on January 28, 1924

 

 

Miscellaneous Climate Facts

• Wind chill records are not reliably kept. However, a notable bitter wind chill occurred on February 1, 1996 around 725pm. The temperature at Duluth was -25 degrees with a peak wind speed of 25 MPH. This produced a wind chill value of -58 degrees.

• The state record low temperature in Minnesota was recorded at Tower, Minnesota on February 2, 1996. The low was -60 degrees. This is also the coldest temperature ever recorded east of the Mississippi River.

• The state record low temperature in Wisconsin was recorded at Couderay on February 2nd and February 4th of 1996. The temperatures dipped down to -55 degrees both nights.

• At the Duluth International Airport, the record for consecutive hours below zero degrees temperature is 186 hours from January 12-20, 1994.

• The lowest pressure ever recorded at Duluth, Minnesota was 960.2 millibars or 28.35 inches of mercury. This occurred at 11:15 AM on October 26, 2010..

• The Minnesota state record snowfall in 24 hours was at Wolf Ridge ELC in Finland, WI where 36 inches of snow fell on January 7, 1994. The Minnesota state record snow depth was 88 inches from February 15th to February 21st in 1969.

• The Wisconsin state record snow depth was 83 inches on April 6, 1933 at the Turtle Flambeau Reservoir. The Wisconsin state record for 24-hour snowfall was outside of the NWS Duluth area of responsibility (26 inches at Neillsville).

• Hurley, Wisconsin in Iron County set a new Wisconsin state record for the most snowfall recorded in a single season in 1996-1997. The observer in Hurley measured 277.2 inches of snow, or 23.1 feet of snow.

• Hurley, Wisconsin averaged 174.4 inches of snow per season from the winter of 1987-1988 to the winter of 2009-2010. This makes it one of the snowiest spots east of the Rockies in the United States. This is largely due to it being situated in the Lake Superior snowbelt, where lake effect snows are prevalent in the winter months.

[IWXwx]

Solid bump since we've got the upcoming winter thread rolling.

[michsnowfreak]

A great bump of what would turn out to be a historic winter

 

[Geos]

One thing we have going right now at least still, is the warm north Pacific.