Geos Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 It's only November 15th for crying out loud! Most of us have seen snow at least. I'd say a complaint thread no earlier than Thanksgiving. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Long range GFS looks decent, AO is going to start heading down.... What's there to complain about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Long range GFS looks decent, AO is going to start heading down.... What's there to complain about? Concern about going from a flip flopping pattern like this to suppression by the end of the month perhaps? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Concern about going from a flip flopping pattern like this to suppression by the end of the month perhaps? Lol. This "flip flopping" is resulting in climo for Nov. around here. No complaints. I've seen snow and now I will probably get to see severe. It's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I doubt any suppression is coming anytime soon. Very flippy pattern...........just like we like it eh? Yeah without a negative NAO, and potential neutral AO combined with a SE Ridge we can win, depending on the pattern that is in place at that moment though. We may even have the Subtropical Jetstream coming into play sometimes, adding more fuel to the "fire". Our cold anomalies thus far have been in part due to the Strong Pacific blocking, if it weren't for that, it'd be torch nation. Interesting pattern through the next 2 weeks indeed. Could be a nice storm next weekend potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Yeah without a negative NAO, and potential neutral AO combined with a SE Ridge we can win, depending on the pattern that is in place at that moment though. We may even have the Subtropical Jetstream coming into play sometimes, adding more fuel to the "fire". Our cold anomalies thus far have been in part due to the Strong Pacific blocking, if it weren't for that, it'd be torch nation. Interesting pattern through the next 2 weeks indeed. Could be a nice storm next weekend potentially. Since the AO will be going negative, and I assume the NAO as well, it is possible we see a west based -NAO, which would focus the storms toward the East Coast. I'm not betting on it, but it is within the realm of possiblity I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Yeah without a negative NAO, and potential neutral AO combined with a SE Ridge we can win, depending on the pattern that is in place at that moment though. We may even have the Subtropical Jetstream coming into play sometimes, adding more fuel to the "fire". Our cold anomalies thus far have been in part due to the Strong Pacific blocking, if it weren't for that, it'd be torch nation. Interesting pattern through the next 2 weeks indeed. Could be a nice storm next weekend potentially. Since the AO will be going negative, and I assume the NAO as well, it is possible we see a west based -NAO, which would focus the storms toward the East Coast. I'm not betting on it, but it is within the realm of possiblity I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 I see there has been some disco about suppression towards the end of the month. Looking at the telleconections towards the end of the month I see this. The PNA may go slightly positive around the 24th and 25th, and then go slightly negative towards the end of the month. The AO is progged to move into the neutral to slightly negative range with the NAO going towards neutral. Without a negative PNA signal I'm not sure there can be a southeastern ridge in place, and if it were to be there it would be in the extreme SE US. The real key here is that the EPO is forecast to stay strongly negative. Therefore I feel suppression is likely, I would give it a 60/40 chance. If there is a major snow storm towards the end of the month I put in the far eastern part of the sub forum ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Given you're saying the PNA is supposed to be around neutral, there has to be some chance for SE ridging to take place the last week of the month, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Given you're saying the PNA is supposed to be around neutral, there has to be some chance for SE ridging to take place the last week of the month, right? Actually a slight -PNA is good. That puts a trough into a west, but not so much that it pumps a strong ridge in front/east of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Given you're saying the PNA is supposed to be around neutral, there has to be some chance for SE ridging to take place the last week of the month, right? Yes, but it may be based near the extreme SE US...in other words we could see a apps runner or something on the east coast, or if the SE ridge does not develop the storms systems could go OTS (out to sea). I would rather like to see a -PNA to pop a SE ridge that is strong enough to effect most of this sub forum. This is from the MPX 11/16 afternoon AFD, and the indices in my opinion are agreeing, " AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT HAS EMERGED ON THE 12Z ECMWF ANDCANADIAN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FOLLOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH...APROLIFIC 1050-1055MB HIGH BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERNROCKIES/NORTHWESTERN PLAINS COULD BRING OUR FIRST SHOT AT VERYCOLD TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND FIM MAINTAIN A MUCHMILDER SOLUTION WITH A WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE HIGH REMAININGIN CANADA SO CANNOT TREND TOWARD EITHER SOLUTION YET. I think the foreign models have this right, the American Models were on a hot streak when they said the major snows that the ECMWF was predicting along the east coast a week ago would not develop, and they were right ( the American model suite). However with this severe set up that we are seeing, the foreign models were much better at sniffing it out...in other words I think foreign models are on the hot streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Since the AO will be going negative, and I assume the NAO as well, it is possible we see a west based -NAO, which would focus the storms toward the East Coast. I'm not betting on it, but it is within the realm of possiblity I would think. Its possible, but for it to cause major suppression like 2009-10, its highly unlikely.. That winter featured an anomalous west based -NAO and if we do see any West based -NAO in the coming weeks, it'll be fairly weak. In the 8-10 500mb height charts, we can clearly see ridging on the Eastern side of Greenland indicative of a East Based -NAO trying to formulate itself. A East based -NAO on the other hand, is good for us in the sub forum as it prevents suppression and at the same, allows for an abundance of cold air to be available. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html You can also see the ridge trying to develop across the West, perhaps a +PNA developing, but for us in the sub forum a neutral PNA to slightly negative is good for us. It keeps the SE Ridge from going to far north and/or keeps the trough from digging in too far south. Like i said earlier, best chances of snow for us in the sub forum would be late November-early December and Mid-Late December. May get a few clippers, if we have a strong Polar jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 DT calling for a cold, snowy, stormy winter. As always, if you can overlook the spelling errors and typos, EXCELLENT analysis! http://www.wxrisk.com/2013/11/winter-forecast-2013-14-is-finally-here/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 DT calling for a cold, snowy, stormy winter. As always, if you can overlook the spelling errors and typos, EXCELLENT analysis! http://www.wxrisk.com/2013/11/winter-forecast-2013-14-is-finally-here/ A good read and everything seems to be coming together for winter to be a good one. I will be watching to see what late Nov early Dec brings. Siberia had a quick onset so perhaps our will be of the same manor, time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Unheard of...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Unheard of...... US_Winter_Forecast-for_2013-2014_from-AccuWeather.jpg Well one could argue yesterday's outbreak occured in the fall not winter. But yes ironically correct about sever storms after we all laughed at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Except DT is disregarding the SAI and OPI for the "propriety" method so he can forecast a -.77 NAO. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41379-october-pattern-index-predicting-winter-ao-from-october-with-90-accuracy/page-3 this invalidates a big part of his forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Winter 2013-14 Outlook for Southeast Lower Michiganhttp://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2013/11/second-neutral-winter-leaves-southeast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Winter 2013-14 Outlook for Southeast Lower Michigan http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2013/11/second-neutral-winter-leaves-southeast.html Great discussion as always Bill! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Perhaps a true winter to make up for the EZ ones of late.... I always enjoy your views Bill. Thanks for your long term contributions to weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Unheard of...... I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I'll take it. How about snow-day.org Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I'll take it. How about snow-day.org Hopefully we get a track that brings a nice warm moisture feed up over St Louis and then goes negative tilt into this type of airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2013 Author Share Posted November 20, 2013 I don't think the Accuwx map was meant to be interpreted as severe thunderstorms. At least I think that's what someone from there said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I don't think the Accuwx map was meant to be interpreted as severe thunderstorms. At least I think that's what someone from there said. Yes someone there said that it doesn't entirely mean severe thunderstorms but just storm systems in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Expecting to see something like this sometime this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Expecting to see something like this sometime this winter. Right idea, only centered over Erie PA instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Right idea, only centered over Erie PA instead I'll take that too Stebo.... I hate the warm sector storms !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Right idea, only centered over Erie PA instead Haha, I figured a comment like this was coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 NOAA released their winter outlook today with an equal chance on both precip and temps for the entire subforum. No surprise with no strong ENSO signal. More realistic than some of the lolmaps posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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