Jonger Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 La Nina might raise the probability of colder than normal temps, but remember 2011-2012 had a moderate La Nina from start to finish. The PNA probably matters more than any index, especially after witnessing it destroy two straight Dec & Jan periods in a row. One had a La Nina and the other was a neutral/weak Nina. Good point about the PNA. Looks like we need a slightly -PNA. Table below for reference. -0.3 for the last ONI index update, I suspect that will be 0 or so in the next update. I was about to make a chart like that, saved me a lot of trouble, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Give me a negative PNA, its pretty obvious that makes or breaks our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Give me a negative PNA, its pretty obvious that makes or breaks our winter. Yep. So far, so good. Of course this doesn't go out to December yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Also in reading that OPI index article it seems similar to 07-08 which had a great December and February but a not so good January so it's neat that things may be similar to that year. You're just setting yourself up for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 You're just setting yourself up for disappointment. Hows it going Canuck? How much snow thus far, seems like edmonton got some action over the past week or so. 07-08 was borderline away from being disastrous. The overall pattern was a dominate +AO/NAO which prevented cold air from moving further south in combination with the SE Ridge. We got lucky to be on the good side of storms when they occured. Majority of storms had temperatures at or slightly below freezing. 08-09 however was far cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Hows it going Canuck? How much snow thus far, seems like edmonton got some action over the past week or so. 07-08 was borderline away from being disastrous. The overall pattern was a dominate +AO/NAO which prevented cold air from moving further south in combination with the SE Ridge. We got lucky to be on the good side of storms when they occured. Majority of storms had temperatures at or slightly below freezing. 08-09 however was far cooler. I can remember some very cold snowstorms in 2007-08 too. Honestly, that winter had absolutely everything for almost everyone in the northern part of this subforum. I had accumulated just 3.5" total on the season through December 14th (biggest fall 1"), I barely got over an inch during the locally infamous New Years storm, and I saw record temps in the mid-60s in early January...yet racked up 78.2" of snow, nearly double average. The storms kept on coming and coming and coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Severe Weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 I can remember some very cold snowstorms in 2007-08 too. Honestly, that winter had absolutely everything for almost everyone in the northern part of this subforum. I had accumulated just 3.5" total on the season through December 14th (biggest fall 1"), I barely got over an inch during the locally infamous New Years storm, and I saw record temps in the mid-60s in early January...yet racked up 78.2" of snow, nearly double average. The storms kept on coming and coming and coming. January 21, 2008 comes to mind. That was a pixie dust storm if anything, and definitely compared to most of the rest of the storms. Given the high number of storms overall, there were some cold snowstorms, but definitely a higher percentage of wet plastering snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 I can remember some very cold snowstorms in 2007-08 too. Honestly, that winter had absolutely everything for almost everyone in the northern part of this subforum. I had accumulated just 3.5" total on the season through December 14th (biggest fall 1"), I barely got over an inch during the locally infamous New Years storm, and I saw record temps in the mid-60s in early January...yet racked up 78.2" of snow, nearly double average. The storms kept on coming and coming and coming. Yeah 07-08 was an extraordinary winter for most of us in the sub-forum. However, it wasn't a cold winter. Cold shots weren't consistent and often lasted no more than a few days. As a result, despite the continuous storminess it didnt last long on the ground and often melted or compacted the week after. We had a decent thaw in late December and again in January and overall February and March offered record amounts of snowfall. So it was a front and back loaded winter or gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 You're just setting yourself up for disappointment. 08/09 and 07/08 were some of the best winters in SE Michigan HISTORY. I don't plan on seeing 175% normal snowfall many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Yeah 07-08 was an extraordinary winter for most of us in the sub-forum. However, it wasn't a cold winter. Cold shots weren't consistent and often lasted no more than a few days. As a result, despite the continuous storminess it didnt last long on the ground and often melted or compacted the week after. We had a decent thaw in late December and again in January and overall February and March offered record amounts of snowfall. So it was a front and back loaded winter or gradient. I liked 08/09 the best.... I prefer average all the time more so than big ups and downs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Brutal cold rain the end of the weekend on the GFS fot these parts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 I'm really liking the long range GFS, shows a very seasonal to colder than normal pattern for November. This would bring LES and start off the early met winter period off much nicer than the last couple years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 EURO weeklies. Likely due to our changing teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Yeah the Euro Weeklies were warm and now they flipped to cold. CFS v2 has flipped to cold as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Yeah the Euro Weeklies were warm and now they flipped to cold. CFS v2 has flipped to cold as well. So much for the warm start to winter everyone had with their favorite analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 So much for the warm start to winter everyone had with their favorite analog. It could easily flip back to warm though. I mean if it can flip this quickly, it could flip back warm just as quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2013 Author Share Posted November 13, 2013 It could easily flip back to warm though. I mean if it can flip this quickly, it could flip back warm just as quickly. Amazing concept Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 hehe yep. I mean when you go from this a few days ago: to: That's very inconsistent for the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 hehe yep. I mean when you go from this a few days ago: to: That's very inconsistent for the weeklies. That's how the weeklies and CFS work, they default to global warming scenarios and get adjusted to reality the closer to the timeframe. Check out the CPC maps for the next 1.5 years out, you will be hard pressed to find more than 10% of the continental united states covered by "Below Normal" in any period, but half of those months will verify at or below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2013 Author Share Posted November 13, 2013 That's how the weeklies and CFS work, they default to global warming scenarios and get adjusted to reality the closer to the timeframe. Any documentation to back this up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Any documentation to back this up? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2 Scroll through the next year. Its just moving red blobs around a map with no skill what so ever. If you look through the CPCs reasoning for forecasts, they use trends into their consideration... So the CPC is just outputting data with a built in warm bias. 2013 had the same output. Look at how that turned out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2013 Author Share Posted November 13, 2013 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2 Scroll through the next year. Its just moving red blobs around a map with no skill what so ever. If you look through the CPCs reasoning for forecasts, they use trends into their consideration... So the CPC is just outputting data with a built in warm bias. 2013 had the same output. Look at how that turned out dsdsd.jpg dsdsdsd.jpg CPC outlooks and model output are two different things. I was wondering if you could point me to something specific about the models starting off warm because of some built in global warming bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Well they got Texas and New England right! I think it is the changing AO and NAO that is throwing the EURO weeklies for a loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2 Scroll through the next year. Its just moving red blobs around a map with no skill what so ever. If you look through the CPCs reasoning for forecasts, they use trends into their consideration... So the CPC is just outputting data with a built in warm bias. 2013 had the same output. Look at how that turned outdsdsd.jpgdsdsdsd.jpg CPC outlooks and model output are two different things. I was wondering if you could point me to something specific about the models starting off warm because of some built in global warming bias. I'm on my phone now, so my abilities to search aren't so good now, but its mentioned that recent climate trends (even though they are flat) work into their outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 CPC outlooks and model output are two different things. I was wondering if you could point me to something specific about the models starting off warm because of some built in global warming bias. He can't because there isn't a global warming bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 It's only November 14th and the snow addicts are starting to withdrawal. Can we please put a stop to the personal garbage.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 It's only November 14th and the snow addicts are starting to withdrawal. Can we please put a stop to the personal garbage.. What are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I smell a 2013/14' Winter complaint thread developing soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I smell a 2013/14' Winter complaint thread developing soon! haha, can't believe we don't have one already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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