Winter 2013-14 Discussion

[Justin]

It's all a crapshoot at this point really as is any seasonal forecast...best guesses.  I always try and give my best guess with everything I have at my disposal.  I certainly don't like the ONI readings, don't like the sunspot spike in October...but SAI index is good, neutral ENSO, and the EPO as you said isn't bad Toronto blizz...  I will have to go back and pull my forecast from last Winter, I know we had more snow last Winter vs. 2011-2012 and the temps were certainly colder. 

 

But with everything I am seeing on the table I would call for temps to average slightly below normal over the Eastern Lakes/Northern New England/perhaps portions of the Mid Atlantic and the far Northwest corner out by Seattle.  I'm thinking warmer than normal for most of the inter-mountain West, Plains, and South. 

 

Precipitation at or a bit above average from the Southern Midwest to Lower Lakes/Ohio Valley, and into the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England, and the Pacific Northwest (mainly Washington State and portions of Oregon/Idaho).   Otherwise very dry from California through the inter-mountain West, Plains, and Lower Mississippi valley.

 

Anywhere not mentioned, equal chances will rule the roost.  I'll try and have some maps out this weekend.

[toronto blizzard]

Enough with being confrontational with the meteorologists in this region, they may put up with it in New England, but we wont here. You have argued with every meteorologist in this subforum that isn't calling for cold and snowy, even though every single one of us has given reasoning why we are leaning that way. This ends today from you.

I wasn't being confrontational, I was only pointing out that ONI index is everything. I find that the EPO has a far greater impact over the NAO/AO for the MW/GL. Relax dude

[Stebo]

Yeah the ONI Jonger certainly seems to want to say the upcoming Winter is gonna be warm... I posted some thoughts over in the medium range Winter thread here on our subforum this morning. 

 

I am really concerned that we are going to have a predominantly positive NAO/AO and thus really only get a few glancing blows of cold this Winter and if those glancing blows don't match up with any good phasing shortwaves...yikes, and even if they do it may be a set up for a lot of freezing rain/sleet to cold rain/wet snow scenario's.  I at least like the fact we have an active storm track that's coming around once a week it seems, so that's a good thing I guess.  But like this upcoming cold shot next week- it is only here a few days and then bam right back to eventually normal/above normal temps... that is what really concerns me at this point

This weekly activity is certainly something to hang your hat on going into winter. We might not end up with constant quick clippers this year, but if we end up having a lot of big systems with an active storm track that would be nice. This is part of the reason why I go back to 07-08, even though the ENSO doesn't match other secondary indicators are similar to the Fall of 07, and that winter had a very active storm track but not a lot of quick hitting clippers and it was a complete roller coaster ride all winter long.

[Stebo]

I wasn't being confrontational, I was only pointing out that ONI index is everything. I find that the EPO has a far greater impact over the NAO/AO for the MW/GL. Relax dude

Actually you were... It is perpetually the same thing, someone makes a remark about winter being warm you post something standoffish saying it will be cold with limited reasoning.

 

As for ONI, it isn't everything but it is a very good indicator for the AO which has about a 90% success rate, so anyone who would be stating that we don't end up with a +AO for the winter has a huge chance of being wrong.

[Justin]

This weekly activity is certainly something to hang your hat on going into winter. We might not end up with constant quick clippers this year, but if we end up having a lot of big systems with an active storm track that would be nice. This is part of the reason why I go back to 07-08, even though the ENSO doesn't match other secondary indicators are similar to the Fall of 07, and that winter had a very active storm track but not a lot of quick hitting clippers and it was a complete roller coaster ride all winter long.

And Stebo, I think the rollercoaster ride pattern as you are describing here is a good analogy for the upcoming Winter for most of us.  I just don't see a brutally or severely colder than normal temperature pattern.  And I am encouraged, as I said in the other thread, that the storm track so far this Fall has remained active across much of the region.  I'm just curious and cautious to see if the active parade of systems continues. 

[Jonger]

And Stebo, I think the rollercoaster ride pattern as you are describing here is a good analogy for the upcoming Winter for most of us.  I just don't see a brutally or severely colder than normal temperature pattern.  And I am encouraged, as I said in the other thread, that the storm track so far this Fall has remained active across much of the region.  I'm just curious and cautious to see if the active parade of systems continues. 

 

I put little stock in seasonal outlooks, they seem to be a fit, until they don't work out. No offense, but the roller coaster explanation could work for 75% of all winters. We are just too far south to lock into a cold pattern more that 2 weeks at best, torches are the rule and not the exception. 

[toronto blizzard]

Actually you were... It is perpetually the same thing, someone makes a remark about winter being warm you post something standoffish saying it will be cold with limited reasoning.

 

As for ONI, it isn't everything but it is a very good indicator for the AO which has about a 90% success rate, so anyone who would be stating that we don't end up with a +AO for the winter has a huge chance of being wrong.

Yes but there's also the SAI and the OPI speaking of which if you go to the main weather forum there is a great article on how the OPI index will mean a cold start and end to winter but a mild middle. It's a good read. Check it out when you have a chance

[Stebo]

And Stebo, I think the rollercoaster ride pattern as you are describing here is a good analogy for the upcoming Winter for most of us.  I just don't see a brutally or severely colder than normal temperature pattern.  And I am encouraged, as I said in the other thread, that the storm track so far this Fall has remained active across much of the region.  I'm just curious and cautious to see if the active parade of systems continues. 

Eventually there will be a shut off at some point with the activity, if I had to take a guess I'd probably say February. Also just for the sake of discussion, I am thinking a decent portion of the region ends up normal to above normal but I don't think it will be something like +2.5 or better, especially if we stay active most of the winter, the ups and downs will balance things out considerably.

[Stebo]

Yes but there's also the SAI and the OPI speaking of which if you go to the main weather forum there is a great article on how the OPI index will mean a cold start and end to winter but a mild middle. It's a good read. Check it out when you have a chance

I have read that already, which is part of the reason why I am not going very above normal for the winter. Also why I think the Northern and Western portions of the region will be normal maybe even a touch below normal especially in MN and Western IA.

[toronto blizzard]

Eventually there will be a shut off at some point with the activity, if I had to take a guess I'd probably say February. Also just for the sake of discussion, I am thinking a decent portion of the region ends up normal to above normal but I don't think it will be something like +2.5 or better, especially if we stay active most of the winter, the ups and downs will balance things out considerably.

Similar to 07-08. No long mild ups or cool downs

[toronto blizzard]

Also in reading that OPI index article it seems similar to 07-08 which had a great December and February but a not so good January so it's neat that things may be similar to that year.

[Stebo]

Similar to 07-08. No long mild ups or cool downs

Yes, however there were significant cool periods and significant warm periods though short, January of 08 had both.

[toronto blizzard]

Yes, however there were significant cool periods and significant warm periods though short, January of 08 had both.

That winter was mainly +AO right?

[Stebo]

That winter was mainly +AO right?

Yes, here is the AO page I use for every day since January 1st 1950

 

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

[toronto blizzard]

Yes, here is the AO page I use for every day since January 1st 1950

 

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

Thanks for that. I do think we see the AO go to neutral for Dec followed by returning to postive for Jan. Just my thought

[Snowstorms]

And Stebo, I think the rollercoaster ride pattern as you are describing here is a good analogy for the upcoming Winter for most of us. I just don't see a brutally or severely colder than normal temperature pattern. And I am encouraged, as I said in the other thread, that the storm track so far this Fall has remained active across much of the region. I'm just curious and cautious to see if the active parade of systems continues.

Yeah excellent analogy. There seems to be hints that the MJO play a role in aiding a STJ development from time to time when storms develop and race towards our area this winter. Due to an unusually quiet atlantic hurricane season, the Gulf is open to lots of moisture including the atlantic coast.

We would need the AAM to remain at a relative phase in combination with the MJO to retain a weak STJ at all times.

Best times in my opinion for cold shots would be mid-december, late January and mid-late February with the outside chance of something in March.

[Geos]

I think this winter will be wet. If I had to guess on temperatures it would be about what 07-08 was - this far north. I agree with Stebo that will likely have temperatures on a roller coaster, but I think will have plenty of systems to track. 

2007-2008 here had a temperature spread of -7° to 64°. Coldest periods in early December and mid to late January. 

 

Average AO values for that winter: 0.821, 0.819, 0.938, 0.586. Conclusion: somewhat +AO not so bad. 

 

December departure: -1.21°

January departure: +0.60°

February departure: -4.36°

March departure: -0.89°

 

Most snows were semi-wet to wet. Mostly between 27-32°. Not much powder that winter. It can be slightly above normal and most of us can still cash in on some good snows.

 

Anyone know what the MJO did that winter?

 

Edit: So far our November is matching pretty closely to November of 2007.

[wisconsinwx]

My call locally is 35-40 inches of snow and slightly warmer than normal temps, similar to last winter but a bit less snow.

[RCNYILWX]

I think this winter will be wet. If I had to guess on temperatures it would be about what 07-08 was - this far north. I agree with Stebo that will likely have temperatures on a roller coaster, but I think will have plenty of systems to track. 

2007-2008 here had a temperature spread of -7° to 64°. Coldest periods in early December and mid to late January. 

 

Average AO values for that winter: 0.821, 0.819, 0.938, 0.586. Conclusion: somewhat +AO not so bad. 

 

December departure: -1.21°

January departure: +0.60°

February departure: -4.36°

March departure: -0.89°

 

Most snows were semi-wet to wet. Mostly between 27-32°. Not much powder that winter. It can be slightly above normal and most of us can still cash in on some good snows.

 

Anyone know what the MJO did that winter?

 

Edit: So far our November is matching pretty closely to November of 2007.

07-08 was a moderate strength La Nina, while this winter will likely end up a warm biased Neutral. Given the expectation of a +AO, I think the winter overall will end up a few degrees above normal for much of this part of the subforum. The JAMSTEC has a warm east, cold west look to it and if that occurs, I'd agree it should be a fairly active winter due to a strong baroclinic zone, and there will be enough cold around for some good snow producing systems.

Don S mentioned in the NYC thread that the Arctic region is much colder than in the past several years, so even with +AO, times of relaxation of the PV should allow for some fairly notable cold shots, especially if coupled with snow cover. However, the warmth should overall outduel the cold and there could also be fairly significant warm periods like in 08 when the NE Pacific pattern also favors warmth. We're going to need the EPO to be neutral to negative for much of the winter to not have much warmer than normal conditions.

[Stebo]

07-08 was a moderate strength La Nina, while this winter will likely end up a warm biased Neutral. Given the expectation of a +AO, I think the winter overall will end up a few degrees above normal for much of this part of the subforum. The JAMSTEC has a warm east, cold west look to it and if that occurs, I'd agree it should be a fairly active winter due to a strong baroclinic zone, and there will be enough cold around for some good snow producing systems. Don S mentioned in the NYC thread that the Arctic region is much colder than in the past several years, so even with +AO, times of relaxation of the PV should allow for some fairly notable cold shots, especially if coupled with snow cover. However, the warmth should overall outduel the cold and there could also be fairly significant warm periods like in 08 when the NE Pacific pattern also favors warmth. We're going to need the EPO to be neutral to negative for much of the winter to not have much warmer than normal conditions.

 

 

Yeah that is the one piece of the puzzle that doesn't match 2007, the ENSO was decently negative that year where as this year we will float just above neutral. The other indices do follow 2007's pattern thus far going into winter though.

[Geos]

Yeah, forgot to add in the La Niña aspect of that winter. -1.5 for Jan, Feb.

Even if it is warmer than 07-08, that still should result in fair to good chances of heavy snowfall across the subforum with an active pattern. Would definitely side with the SE ridge sticking around awhile.

[Snowstorms]

07-08 was a moderate strength La Nina, while this winter will likely end up a warm biased Neutral. Given the expectation of a +AO, I think the winter overall will end up a few degrees above normal for much of this part of the subforum. The JAMSTEC has a warm east, cold west look to it and if that occurs, I'd agree it should be a fairly active winter due to a strong baroclinic zone, and there will be enough cold around for some good snow producing systems. Don S mentioned in the NYC thread that the Arctic region is much colder than in the past several years, so even with +AO, times of relaxation of the PV should allow for some fairly notable cold shots, especially if coupled with snow cover. However, the warmth should overall outduel the cold and there could also be fairly significant warm periods like in 08 when the NE Pacific pattern also favors warmth. We're going to need the EPO to be neutral to negative for much of the winter to not have much warmer than normal conditions.

 

I like 08 as a better analog considering it has a better SST configuration globally as opposed to 2007 to this year. However there are a few differences and those differences line up perfectly with 2007. And agreed, STJ should certainly be an influence this Winter. I suspect a combo of both a La Nina and El Nino this winter. The pacific has been really battling the Atlantic this Fall. AO is currently well above 3 sigma, combined with a +NAO. The trough next week should create a pseudo -NAO anomaly in combination with the -EPO and that really shows you how much the Pacific influences our weather.

 

-PDO winters have benefited us more than +PDO and a good example is the 40s thru the 70's. The past few years the PV was on the other side of the globe and they got hammered with Winter weather while we got torched. Should see a piece of the PV slide south next week across Canada. 

[toronto blizzard]

I like 08 as a better analog considering it has a better SST configuration globally as opposed to 2007 to this year. However there are a few differences and those differences line up perfectly with 2007. And agreed, STJ should certainly be an influence this Winter. I suspect a combo of both a La Nina and El Nino this winter. The pacific has been really battling the Atlantic this Fall. AO is currently well above 3 sigma, combined with a +NAO. The trough next week should create a pseudo -NAO anomaly in combination with the -EPO and that really shows you how much the Pacific influences our weather.

 

-PDO winters have benefited us more than +PDO and a good example is the 40s thru the 70's. The past few years the PV was on the other side of the globe and they got hammered with Winter weather while we got torched. Should see a piece of the PV slide south next week across Canada. 

I read somewhere that the MJO is so far behaving like it was during the fall of 2007

[Snowstorms]

I read somewhere that the MJO is so far behaving like it was during the fall of 2007

 

You can look at it here; 

 

http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phasediag.list.htm

 

Or you can look at past weekly updates from NOAA to get a better short analysis on this link; 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ARCHIVE/

 

The MJO is very variable and often times it can change phases or remain consistent despite model guidance saying otherwise. I suggest analyzing the GWO/AAM too. 

[Jonger]

Yeah, forgot to add in the La Niña aspect of that winter. -1.5 for Jan, Feb.

Even if it is warmer than 07-08, that still should result in fair to good chances of heavy snowfall across the subforum with an active pattern. Would definitely side with the SE ridge sticking around awhile.

 

La Nina might raise the probability of colder than normal temps, but remember 2011-2012 had a moderate La Nina from start to finish. The PNA probably matters more than any index, especially after witnessing it destroy two straight Dec & Jan periods in a row. One had a La Nina and the other was a neutral/weak Nina.

[Geos]

Nice winter outlook writeup by DVN.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dvn/downloads/winter_outlook-2013-14.pdf

[Geos]

La Nina might raise the probability of colder than normal temps, but remember 2011-2012 had a moderate La Nina from start to finish. The PNA probably matters more than any index, especially after witnessing it destroy two straight Dec & Jan periods in a row. One had a La Nina and the other was a neutral/weak Nina.

 

Good point about the PNA. Looks like we need a slightly -PNA. Table below for reference. 

 

-0.3 for the last ONI index update, I suspect that will be 0 or so in the next update.

 

[WestCoaster]

No 2011-2012?

 

Last winter was a La Nina?? For whatever reason I thought it was a weak El Nino but ended up being basically neutral

[Geos]

No 2011-2012?

 

Last winter was a La Nina?? For whatever reason I thought it was a weak El Nino but ended up being basically neutral

 

Oops, gotta correct that! Thanks for that catch. Edit: Fixed^

[Baum]

Nice winter outlook writeup by DVN.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dvn/downloads/winter_outlook-2013-14.pdf

Geos, am I understanding there is a 50/50 chance of a cold and snowy winter as opposed to a warm and dry winter period for Eastern Iowa?