Winter 2013-14 Discussion

[wisconsinwx]

What factors were you looking at for that?

(Although I can throw together a good-looking outlook, I'm an amateur, still learning)

 

 

I can't speak for Stebo, but the trends of storminess in October and November often tell the story (ie. a lot of Midwest storms in October translate to a similar pattern in winter) and there has been a dearth of Nor'easters or any storms in general, especially in New England, though the interior NE as well.  It has been very active with storms in the Midwest, not necessarily deep wind storms, but moisture laden storms nonetheless.  The jet stream will obviously dip a bit more SE one would think, but not toward the NE coast on a regular basis unless we have prolonged -NAO periods.

[wisconsinwx]

It seems when Nov 1st hits and its not 15℉ below normal, people start calling for a backloaded winter. People like to use the previous winter as a template for all successive forecasts, same goes for the other 3 seasons. Everyone wanted to call for a Morch and hot summer, it was a skill-less forecast. Winter 2011-2012 busted warm, since the previous decade was so cold compared to the 1990's.

 

Lol, I don't think it's quite that bad, but we have had slow starts the last two winters, so I'd be nervous to have another slow start to make up for later in the season.

[Jonger]

In fairness to 2011-12, there wasn't really any "start" at all.

Southern Michigan hasn't had any real winter in 2 years.... my last 6 inch storm came in Nov 2011. Good thing I'm mobile.

[weatherbo]

Southern Michigan hasn't had any real winter in 2 years.... my last 6 inch storm came in Nov 2011. Good thing I'm mobile.

I'll settle for an average winter.

[SpartyOn]

Southern Michigan hasn't had any real winter in 2 years.... my last 6 inch storm came in Nov 2011. Good thing I'm mobile.

 

 

So Detroits 40"+ snowfall last year wasn't a real winter? It wasn't much but it was wintery if I recall. 

[IWXwx]

Southern Michigan hasn't had any real winter in 2 years.... my last 6 inch storm came in Nov 2011. Good thing I'm mobile.

 

  Cue Josh.

[SpartyOn]

  Cue Josh.

 

& PowerBall

[DAFF]

I think the 40"+ measurement was elevated since we had a few 4" snows when the temps were in the teens. The high ratio snows accumulated quickly but there was not much moisture within the system. Been a long time since we had a decent storm to play in. A large storm would be welcomed to kill the low ball operators who are bidding seasonal contracts with the assumption of EZ snow for the season. Only a small percentile of operators could handle a storm of 12" plus. For those like myself who prepare with heavy equipment would have some satisfaction of money well spent.

[wisconsinwx]

I guess number of 6 inch storms are the only benchmark of 'winter'. I would still consider snowfall amounts of around average to be a legit winter, but I guess that's just me.

[SchaumburgStormer]

I'll settle for an average winter.

+1

Really, if I get an inch of snow before mid-January, I am well ahead of last year...

[michsnowfreak]

Southern Michigan hasn't had any real winter in 2 years.... my last 6 inch storm came in Nov 2011. Good thing I'm mobile.

 

  Cue Josh.

Jongers area didnt get 6"+ with the Dec 26th storm, though most of SE MI did...

 

As for not having winter, lol. Everyone knows "averages" are usually anything but. However, last winter DTW came about as close to average from all angles as you will ever see in the snow department.

 

Total snowfall: 47.7"...NOWData avg 44.1"

1"+ snowcover days: 50...NOWData avg: 47

3"+ snowcover days: 28...NOWData avg: 28

5"+ snowcover days: 9.....NOWData avg: 15

0.1"+ snowfall days: 39...NOWData avg: 37

1.0"+ snowfall days: 16...NOWData avg: 14

3.0"+ snowfall days: 4....NOWData avg: 4

5.0"+ snowfall days: 1....NOWData avg: 2

[michsnowfreak]

I think the 40"+ measurement was elevated since we had a few 4" snows when the temps were in the teens. The high ratio snows accumulated quickly but there was not much moisture within the system. Been a long time since we had a decent storm to play in. A large storm would be welcomed to kill the low ball operators who are bidding seasonal contracts with the assumption of EZ snow for the season. Only a small percentile of operators could handle a storm of 12" plus. For those like myself who prepare with heavy equipment would have some satisfaction of money well spent.

What was ironic is that while February was full of fluff, the cement slush that soggily ended the month was the lowest ratio snow you will ever see. Ma Nature felt a need to balance it out. As a matter of fact, while that storm did start as rain, I can never recall so much liquid precip falling in the form of snow and accumulating so relatively little. It was even soggier than Apr 24, 2005.

[Jonger]

Dec and Jan were terrible in southern Michigan, that's two thirds of winter.

Northern Michigan and the UP had a great winter, extremely long.... Southern Michigan had a bad Dec and Jan...

[michsnowfreak]

Dec and Jan were terrible in southern Michigan, that's two thirds of winter.

The first 3 weeks of December were terrible, as was mid-January. However, Dec 24-Jan 9 and Jan 22-28 were pretty wintry.

[Geos]

SSW starting to form right overhead at the end of this animation.

 

[TimChgo9]

SSW starting to form right overhead at the end of this animation.

 

 

I see what you are talking about, what is the significance?

[Geos]

I see what you are talking about, what is the significance?

 

Well- winter lovers would want the SSW event to expand and propagate downward, which would disrupt the polar vortex in the troposphere enough so it will "let go" of some of its cold. - Sends the cold air blasts more easily into the country.

[nwburbschaser]

Would it have the same impact when it forms this far south though?  Wouldn't you want it to form more or less near the arctic circle to drop the cold air south? Anyway, I don't see that being a true SSW event. I'm winter weather challenged though so I could be wrong. 

[Geos]

Would it have the same impact when it forms this far south though?  Wouldn't you want it to form more or less near the arctic circle to drop the cold air south? Anyway, I don't see that being a true SSW event. I'm winter weather challenged though so I could be wrong. 

 

The SSW event that disrupted the polar vortex last winter started off the Himalayas. As long as it heads a northerly directed and drops down, (and does not weaken) it will affect the PV and the winter weather patterns. It is a warming event, on what scale is a bit up in the air now.

[nwburbschaser]

I forgot about that last year with the SSW starting over the Himalayas.  I had it stuck in my head that it was much further north.  

[michsnowfreak]

Dec and Jan were terrible in southern Michigan, that's two thirds of winter. Northern Michigan and the UP had a great winter, extremely long.... Southern Michigan had a bad Dec and Jan...

Again its all relative. Obviously February was last winters darling month, but Dec & Jan werent terrible in all places in southern Michigan, and werent good in all places in northern Michigan. SW MI did worse than SE MI average wise. For the I-94 corridor it wasnt bad at all, not good either, just pretty average. Alpena and Lansing stick out as terrible wrt snowfall (I know you are closer to Lansing so i can understand your sentiment). Even the UP (at least the official stations) were in the normal range, its just it was much deserved after years of below.

 

DTW:

Dec+Jan snowfall was 20.6", normal is 22.6". Dec+Jan days with 1"+ snowcover was 25, normal is 26.

 

ARB:

Dec+Jan snowfall was 27.8", normal is 30.2". Dec+Jan days with 1"+ snowcover was 29, normal is 34.

 

FNT:

Dec+Jan snowfall was 19.5", normal is 25.1". Dec+Jan days with 1"+ snowcover was 35, normal is 36.

 

GRR:

Dec+Jan snowfall was 24.2", normal is 42.8". Dec+Jan days with 1"+ snowcover was 24, normal is 39

 

LAN:

Dec+Jan snowfall was 9.9", normal is 25.7". Dec+Jan days wth 1"+ snowcover was 33, normal is 38

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

APN:

Dec+Jan snowfall was 18.8", normal is 41.3". Dec+Jan days wth 1"+ snowcover was 45, normal is 50

 

SSM:

Dec+Jan snowfall was 66.4", normal is 62.6". Dec+Jan days wth 1"+ snowcover was 56, normal is 61

 

MQT:

Dec+Jan snowfall was 71.0", normal is 86.1". Dec+Jan days wth 1"+ snowcover was 57, normal is 60

[slow poke]

Again its all relative. Obviously February was last winters darling month, but Dec & Jan werent terrible in all places in southern Michigan, and werent good in all places in northern Michigan. SW MI did worse than SE MI average wise. For the I-94 corridor it wasnt bad at all, not good either, just pretty average. Alpena and Lansing stick out as terrible wrt snowfall (I know you are closer to Lansing so i can understand your sentiment). Even the UP (at least the official stations) were in the normal range, its just it was much deserved after years of below.

 

DTW:

Dec+Jan snowfall was 20.6", normal is 22.6". Dec+Jan days with 1"+ snowcover was 25, normal is 26.

 

ARB:

Dec+Jan snowfall was 27.8", normal is 30.2". Dec+Jan days with 1"+ snowcover was 29, normal is 34.

 

FNT:

Dec+Jan snowfall was 19.5", normal is 25.1". Dec+Jan days with 1"+ snowcover was 35, normal is 36.

 

GRR:

Dec+Jan snowfall was 24.2", normal is 42.8". Dec+Jan days with 1"+ snowcover was 24, normal is 39

 

LAN:

Dec+Jan snowfall was 9.9", normal is 25.7". Dec+Jan days wth 1"+ snowcover was 33, normal is 38

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

APN:

Dec+Jan snowfall was 18.8", normal is 41.3". Dec+Jan days wth 1"+ snowcover was 45, normal is 50

 

SSM:

Dec+Jan snowfall was 66.4", normal is 62.6". Dec+Jan days wth 1"+ snowcover was 56, normal is 61

 

MQT:

Dec+Jan snowfall was 71.0", normal is 86.1". Dec+Jan days wth 1"+ snowcover was 57, normal is 60

 

Great points. I know at my place down here in Southern Lower MI, Northern St Clair county, I have only had 1 plowable/blowable snow in the past two winters. That was the storm we got around Christmas last year, 2012, but I missed it because we were up north during that time. When we got home just after new years, it was pretty much melted. At our place up north, the north side of Higgins Lake, we have had pretty good snow the past two winters. As a snowmobiler, we were able to ride our snowmobiles Thanksgiving, Christmas and Easter weekends along with pretty much every weekend from mid December till April last season. I'll take that again this year in a heartbeat. I really enjoy this website, some very intelligent people on here.

[RogueWaves]

The first 3 weeks of December were terrible, as was mid-January. However, Dec 24-Jan 9 and Jan 22-28 were pretty wintry.

 

Ya, that mid-January retreat of snowiness and winter wx really killed the winter grade for mby. Had we maintained even an inch of snowcover instead of more brown ground effects, it would've really gone a long way towards feeling like a much better season. I can live with a season that kicks-off around Christmastime, I grew up with that. But the quick retreat following the tease start-up really blew chunks imo. Guess I can be thankful for being along the I-94 corridor though, instead of that Lansing dead zone. Never thought I'd say that cuz we often get mixing issues while they're getting a nice storm like Feb '11. Ma Nature kinda evened the score for me on that one.

[Snowstorms]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41639-seasonal-winter-20132014-forecast-based-on-opi-index/

 

Amazing analysis by Ricardo regarding the OPI (October Pattern index). By the looks of it, i have little doubt on his analysis given its previous accuracy rates. His analysis and prediction flow really well to my preliminary thoughts i posted back in Late Oct. Ricardo believes winter should start off great and end great with milder conditions in between. My initial thoughts call for a SSW later in the Winter perhaps late January allowing for cold anomalies to develop in Mid Feb-April thus giving away to a long winter season despite a mild January. This also flows perfectly well compared to previous winters that are being analyzed to this year. Such years include 2007-08, 1965-66, 1966-67, 1962-63 or 1970-71 which featured such conditions. 

 

HIs forecast calls for an average AO value around +1, give or take which makes sense as the pattern favors a more +AO than a -AO. However, it could be possible we see an -AO at some point, depending how the QBO behaves over the next few months and whether or not solar activity increases/decreases.

[michsnowfreak]

Ya, that mid-January retreat of snowiness and winter wx really killed the winter grade for mby. Had we maintained even an inch of snowcover instead of more brown ground effects, it would've really gone a long way towards feeling like a much better season. I can live with a season that kicks-off around Christmastime, I grew up with that. But the quick retreat following the tease start-up really blew chunks imo. Guess I can be thankful for being along the I-94 corridor though, instead of that Lansing dead zone. Never thought I'd say that cuz we often get mixing issues while they're getting a nice storm like Feb '11. Ma Nature kinda evened the score for me on that one.

I guess thats why I didnt think last winter was bad like some in the northern burbs did...because of I-94. NEVER have I seen a winter where the freeway acted like a magnet for a train of heavy snow squalls. I saw 4 whiteouts last winter, all from Lake Michigan. Usually you can count on the Lake for a few inches TOTAL of our season total out this way (talking PURE les, not lake enhanced). Id guess probably a good 13-15" of my 47.9" was due to pure lake effect last year.

[slow poke]

I guess thats why I didnt think last winter was bad like some in the northern burbs did...because of I-94. NEVER have I seen a winter where the freeway acted like a magnet for a train of heavy snow squalls. I saw 4 whiteouts last winter, all from Lake Michigan. Usually you can count on the Lake for a few inches TOTAL of our season total out this way (talking PURE les, not lake enhanced). Id guess probably a good 13-15" of my 47.9" was due to pure lake effect last year.

 

The past two winters over here in the "Thumb" area have been pretty weak snow wise. In a normal winter season I drive from home to work every morning, about 40 miles south to the Detroit area, and notice a large difference in the amount of snow we would have at home compared to what is down at work. I would say over the past 25 years that I have been doing the drive down there that about 80% of the time there is more snow up at home compared to at work. With that said, the past two winters it has been the complete opposite. Very rarely will the lake effect from lake MI stay together long enough to give us anything more than a dusting. We are to far East. But, with a north/north east wind, our area does fairly well with lake effect and especially lake enhanced snow off lake Huron. I'm interested to see what this winter season brings this area, can we go three years in a row without enough snow to ride the snowmobiles around our farm? Stayed tuned and well see........

[Jonger]

I guess thats why I didnt think last winter was bad like some in the northern burbs did...because of I-94. NEVER have I seen a winter where the freeway acted like a magnet for a train of heavy snow squalls. I saw 4 whiteouts last winter, all from Lake Michigan. Usually you can count on the Lake for a few inches TOTAL of our season total out this way (talking PURE les, not lake enhanced). Id guess probably a good 13-15" of my 47.9" was due to pure lake effect last year.

 

Temps are important to me, 1-2F above average isn't the end of the world, but a +6 December and +4 January is hard to overlook.

[A-L-E-K]

the word whiteout has lost all meaning, SMGDH

[Jonger]

I was trying to match up the AO and ONI to get a similar analog for this winter.

 

1989-1990.....

 

 

The only thing about analogs is finding a perfect match, there isn't a perfect match.... The AO goes all over the place within a given winter.

[Justin]

Yeah the ONI Jonger certainly seems to want to say the upcoming Winter is gonna be warm... I posted some thoughts over in the medium range Winter thread here on our subforum this morning. 

 

I am really concerned that we are going to have a predominantly positive NAO/AO and thus really only get a few glancing blows of cold this Winter and if those glancing blows don't match up with any good phasing shortwaves...yikes, and even if they do it may be a set up for a lot of freezing rain/sleet to cold rain/wet snow scenario's.  I at least like the fact we have an active storm track that's coming around once a week it seems, so that's a good thing I guess.  But like this upcoming cold shot next week- it is only here a few days and then bam right back to eventually normal/above normal temps... that is what really concerns me at this point.