Winter 2013-14 Discussion

[wisconsinwx]

Possible. Last November was colder than normal (-1.1F) but only 0.4" of snow. I'm really curious to see how this November plays out ftom a snow perspective rather than temps. As you see, a chilly November doesn't necessarily mean a snowy one, and a warm November can easily be snowier than average with one good snowfall. But our snowfall trends have been uncanny here the last decade with November seeing about 3 times LESS than the longterm average snow and February seeing nearly 3 times MORE. Obviously I will take eclipsing 2 feet instead of 9" in February and getting an inch or less instead if 3" in November, but its just weird how this is happening every single year anymore.

 

Given the recent uptick in winter temperatures, I suppose it wouldn't be that surprising that some of the fringe winter months have been cut back in terms of snowfall, but the middle of winter months have held strong or had more, sometimes much more, snow in recent years, likely due to overall wetter (in our case whiter) winters.  April has been less snowy in the last decade or two as well.

[Jonger]

Given the recent uptick in winter temperatures, I suppose it wouldn't be that surprising that some of the fringe winter months have been cut back in terms of snowfall, but the middle of winter months have held strong or had more, sometimes much more, snow in recent years, likely due to overall wetter (in our case whiter) winters.  April has been less snowy in the last decade or two as well.

 

Here is Dec-March, the last two winters have been warm... But the last decade was the coldest winters of your life, assuming you aren't over 35 years old.

 

April Snow has been more common recently as well, I'll get a chart for that info soon.

 

 

[Geos]

Given the recent uptick in winter temperatures, I suppose it wouldn't be that surprising that some of the fringe winter months have been cut back in terms of snowfall, but the middle of winter months have held strong or had more, sometimes much more, snow in recent years, likely due to overall wetter (in our case whiter) winters.  April has been less snowy in the last decade or two as well.

 

Good point about having the winters most focused between Dec-Mar. Definitely been seeing plenty of snowy winters since about 05-06.

[Snowstorms]

DJF could be 1.0 or 1.5+ with March being -1.0.

 

I think Cohens index includes March.

 

Given the current pattern with the constant reinforcing of North Pacific SSTA to blow torch.  That worries me that we will see blocking over the Aluetians with an SLP off the West coast.

 

just making it worse.

 

 

 

Might be a very icy year for the I-80 crowd.  Snow North Lakes.  While the rest of us will probably see some massive warmth for long periods.

 

Probably long periods of +5 to +10 daily's with small periods of cold.

 

The Lakes can escape the Westerlies much better. We can see the lakes still sporting cold mid level temps.  With the NE gettng a cold blast.  While us further South West constantly get the warm intrusions.  

 

 

 

Or everyone gets screwed.  The teleconnectors are setting up for us all to get screwed in November.  Historic warmth even showing up.  Which may not happen.  But the GFS has almost 20C 850s in STL. That would be low to mid 80s.  Insane.  

 

 

 

Well again like i said lets see how the next 2-3 weeks play out. 

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/aam.rean.shtml

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/gcm/gwo_90d.gif

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131%3C2608%3AMTGFTA%3E2.0.CO%3B2

 

If you look at the links above the AAM is beginning to fall negative and the GWO, is currently entrenched between phases 8-1 which is the difference between negative frictional torque and negative mountain torque. Again the mountain torque (+/-) has an effect on the AO anomaly.

 

Right now, its falling in place to what i was saying since October which is above normal temperatures for most of the sub-forum through the next 2-3 weeks combined with the MJO which may propagate to phases 2-3 meaning warmer anomalies further east though there after it may enter the circle or it may continue further, again its hard to tell. A more positive AAM interacts better with the STJ than a negative AAM. 

 

Based on the current set-up of the Oceans I believe after about Nov 25, the AO trends more neutral/slightly negative and the NAO maintains its neutral phase. The PNA/EPO are the big "ifs"...just where and how strong the Aleutian Ridge will be and if it can maintain its look and prevent the PV from entering Alaska like 2011.

 

I think south of about the Ohio Valley it will be above normal for December, the Lakes area near seasonal and more below normal the further West and North you go. Mid-Late December through January is when I believe the AO will hit its maximum peak points for the Winter. In fact, Jan could be similar to Jan 2008. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

I am not against the idea of having a 2-3 week period favorable for wall to wall cold and snow.  But a AO+ winter would probably lean towards smaller periods of cold and snow.

 

 

I am assuming our AO+ is 1.0 or higher.  If I don't then I assume Cohen and the OPI will bust which means after it works for 30-40 years it will stop. that is unlikely. 

 

 

The OPI has been near 100 percent accurate recently.  Look how it nailed 09-10.  WOW.  that was an amazing winter for me.  

 

 

Basically the OPI says 1.64, then I say it won't be below 1.50.  It sucks but it is what it is.  At best it's at 1.0.  That would be inline with the OPI's largest busts.  I know it sucks.  But the OPI hasn't predicted anything like this year in 20 years.  So I guess if one got desperate enough they can assume the AO would be below 1.0 for the winter.  

 

2011-12 was under 1.0.  1.64 has to be rare and I would guess warm or normal if the pacific is good?  So all hope isn't lost.  

 

I guess the main point is.  If we now assume a 1.0 to 1.5+ our winter forecasting will be much better if we bet against it out of emotion.  We just have to accept that some years will be like 09-10 and some will be like 13-14.  this advanced warning has consequences for snow addicts like us.  It's like being told you're favorite drug is about to go dry and prices will sky rocket.  

 

It's a bit painful even thinking about the OPI.  I find blow torch in winter amusing becuase so many die hards crack up.  I would love to see the NE get blow torched all winter.  It would be so funny seeing the implosions, civil wars, burn warminists at the stake.  

 

But really thinking another boring warm winter.  F*** This Sh**.  

 

We all know we have seen deep cold go away a bit but more moisture. More thundersnow, more convection.  Higher rates.  

 

We had a clipper last year drop 4.5 inches in less than 90 minutes over a 20 mile region.  Amazing.  

 

We had a foot in March.  Late March.  It wasn't record cold, but blocking was near record or record.  But again no qpf issues. 

 

We will all take more snow, less cold.  It's not our choice what we get.  We would take more snow, more warmth.  But we don't want less snow more warmth.  And we know a 1.5 AO+ for the winter means a lot 

 

So if you are along or South of I-70.  Like Indy, STL, Louisville, Evansville, Springfield, Columbia, Kansas City, Columbus, Cincinnati, Cleveland and so on.  I got you pegged for lots of blowtorch to thunderstorms(rain to cool, sometimes cold).  It's not going to be pretty.  We need an active Southern jet and the GOA high pressure to show up.  That way we cash in on traditional transitional storms.  Between positive AO cycles.  get a west based negative NAO to pop a Southerly ejected Southern Stream to phase with the Northern Stream dropping out of the midwest.  while the SE ridge pushes the jets together. As they meet up for big reinforcing low AO low pressures.  

 

The AO can be positive with Atlantic low pressure and arctic low pressure while Canada is high pressure.   

 

I got the lakes being cold and snowy after Dec 10th.  Like the lakes not Chicago but North of that.  A cold dome will sit at times over the lakes but be very sharply cut off as we get to I-80 and I-70 will be warm. Where as in -NAO/-AO winters we can get ice.  If the pacific is good for cold then we get ice, I-80 lots of snow.

 

Like 07-08.  We got ice and snow.  Lots of ice in 08-09.  

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

The 00z GFS hits us with a blow torch.  Then drops a nice gift on the lakes.  However that gift would only last two days maybe three.  We can see the SLP off the West coast in the GOA pounding the rockies with westerlies.

 

by the 2nd image we see the cold airmas being rapidly shunted east ward.  I recall a ton of that in early 2011-12.

 

 

 

[Geos]

Still looks pretty chilly at the end of the run! Looks seasonable though.

 

[Jonger]

The 00z GFS hits us with a blow torch.  Then drops a nice gift on the lakes.  However that gift would only last two days maybe three.  We can see the SLP off the West coast in the GOA pounding the rockies with westerlies.

 

by the 2nd image we see the cold airmas being rapidly shunted east ward.  I recall a ton of that in early 2011-12.

 

 

 

It doesn't look anything like 11-12, there is no rooted SLP in the GOA, just a couple transient storms. It looks like a raging +AO that won't let arctic air pour south yet, thankfully its happening on Nov 5th and not Dec 5th, we have a month for this pattern to flip before it eats into Met Winter.

[SpartyOn]

The GoA is going to be a thorn in the side of all winter weather fans. Bad time for such a feature to rear its head.

[Stebo]

The GoA is going to be a thorn in the side of all winter weather fans. Bad time for such a feature to rear its head.

Gulf of Alaska is showing predominant ridging for most of the GFS/Euro runs, with the PNA going negative that would make sense too. Not sure what you are looking at to be honest.

[Jonger]

The GoA is going to be a thorn in the side of all winter weather fans. Bad time for such a feature to rear its head.

 

There is no telling what will happen a month from now, it just means we won't have an early start to winter... If you run the long range GFS, it just looks zonal/seasonal... Its long range, but the heights drop and the high pressure is replaced with a low over the Aleutians, who knows if it will stick though. Again, its in fantasy time frames.

[Hoosier]

I wouldn't waste my time with super long range GFS maps. If you're going to focus on anything that far out, focus on ensemble runs but obviously even those will be subject to error (possibly large).

As for this talk about November, it's really not much of a wintry month for most of us. It's just not. You can find exceptions but it's not the norm. I would bet that everyone or almost everyone has more favorable March climo (i.e. wintry) compared to November.

[wisconsinwx]

Gulf of Alaska is showing predominant ridging for most of the GFS/Euro runs, with the PNA going negative that would make sense too. Not sure what you are looking at to be honest.

 

So with the PNA going negative through the course of November, would it be correct to say the start of winter (through the end of December) should not be 11-12 bad?

[Jonger]

I wouldn't waste my time with super long range GFS maps. If you're going to focus on anything that far out, focus on ensemble runs but obviously even those will be subject to error (possibly large).

As for this talk about November, it's really not much of a wintry month for most of us. It's just not. You can find exceptions but it's not the norm. I would bet that everyone or almost everyone has more favorable March climo (i.e. wintry) compared to November.

 

Usually you get that one decent weekend or two max out of November. I looked at month to month data from the 1960's, 1970's and beyond... Even in the "good ol' days" there were generally a good cold week and the rest would torch into the 70 degree mark.

 

I grabbed some random 1970's year. Here's KLAN.

 

[Jonger]

So with the PNA going negative through the course of November, would it be correct to say the start of winter (through the end of December) should not be 11-12 bad?

 

Well, its Nov 5th right now.... you have 4-5 weeks to avoid a bad start. It's not even that bad right now, its just zonal in November. I'm not even sold on this month finishing with a positive departure.

[IWXwx]

I wouldn't waste my time with super long range GFS maps. If you're going to focus on anything that far out, focus on ensemble runs but obviously even those will be subject to error (possibly large).

As for this talk about November, it's really not much of a wintry month for most of us. It's just not. You can find exceptions but it's not the norm. I would bet that everyone or almost everyone has more favorable March climo (i.e. wintry) compared to November.

 

This. A voice of reason.

[Stebo]

I wouldn't waste my time with super long range GFS maps. If you're going to focus on anything that far out, focus on ensemble runs but obviously even those will be subject to error (possibly large).

As for this talk about November, it's really not much of a wintry month for most of us. It's just not. You can find exceptions but it's not the norm. I would bet that everyone or almost everyone has more favorable March climo (i.e. wintry) compared to November.

 

Oh I completely agree, the jury is still out with respect to what the Pacific will do during the DJF period.

[Nor'easterblizzard]

Gonna put this here too, since it covers the Midwest as well.

 

http://noreasterwarn.blogspot.com/2013/11/new-2013-2014-winter-outlook.html

[A-L-E-K]

prepare to be flamed

[dmc76]

prepare to be flamed

Well not according to Snow-day.org says we are getting Copious amounts of snow with very cold temps.

[Stebo]

Gonna put this here too, since it covers the Midwest as well.

 

http://noreasterwarn.blogspot.com/2013/11/new-2013-2014-winter-outlook.html

 

I agree with respect to the temperatures, but I don't think the precipitation is going to end up like that, especially looking at a potentially +AO/NAO winter. Sure there will probably be periods where we might go -NAO, which I do agree will probably be February but I don't think it will occur most of the winter.

[Geos]

I'm thinking +AO, but nothing real high this winter. With a NAO near neutral +/-0.5. I agree with Stebo, a -NAO likely by February.

Thinking for the subforum for this month; most of it will fall between +0.5- -1.0° for temperatures. 

[Snowstorms]

I agree with respect to the temperatures, but I don't think the precipitation is going to end up like that, especially looking at a potentially +AO/NAO winter. Sure there will probably be periods where we might go -NAO, which I do agree will probably be February but I don't think it will occur most of the winter.

 

We can get away with a neutral NAO/-PNA that isnt really a problem for our region but having a -AO coincide with a -EPO can allow for nice cold outbreaks while it keeps much of Canada cold. With a more +AAM its easier to obtain a STJ than a -AAM, so periods at which the AAM is positive and the MJO is in favorable phases may allow storms to be aided in tropical energy. 

 

Its quite possible January may see the AO exceed +3 sigma but i expect changes to start happening in February as there's the possibility of SSW occurring, allowing for nice end through much of March. I've seen people toss around 1970-71 as a decent analog and in fact it has a similar pattern as to what we have now and have had but by the end of November, the regime favored more cold/snowy than being warm. This allowed for an epic winter in terms of cold/snow from December right through early April. October 1970 was mild and November started off the same too. 

[Geos]

For 30 hPa on down the stratosphere is near normal. Above 30 hPa it is a bit below normal now.

 

 

[Jonger]

It seems when Nov 1st hits and its not 15℉ below normal, people start calling for a backloaded winter. People like to use the previous winter as a template for all successive forecasts, same goes for the other 3 seasons.

Everyone wanted to call for a Morch and hot summer, it was a skill-less forecast.

Winter 2011-2012 busted warm, since the previous decade was so cold compared to the 1990's.

[Nor'easterblizzard]

I agree with respect to the temperatures, but I don't think the precipitation is going to end up like that, especially looking at a potentially +AO/NAO winter. Sure there will probably be periods where we might go -NAO, which I do agree will probably be February but I don't think it will occur most of the winter.

Wait, you think it will be below average precip, or above?

[Stebo]

Wait, you think it will be below average precip, or above?

 

 

For this region, I would say slightly above average precipitation and above average snowfall unless you are in OH/PA/NY/ON from Hamilton eastward, also I would say northwest of a line from Des Moines to La Crosse to Marquette would probably below normal snowfall and below normal precip. That area is also where I would expect the below normal temperature anomalies to occur this winter.

[Nor'easterblizzard]

So you see more of a far interior/Ohio Valley centered snow-zone this winter. Hmm. I hope that doesn't happen, haven't had a good winter here for a while.

[Stebo]

So you see more of a far interior/Ohio Valley centered snow-zone this winter. Hmm. I hope that doesn't happen, haven't had a good winter here for a while.

No more so Central Great Lakes centered snow-zone, probably north of I-70 and maybe even north of I-80 as well. The western below normal snowfall area I would be a bit more uncertain about, the Eastern one I am pretty certain about however.

[Nor'easterblizzard]

What factors were you looking at for that?
(Although I can throw together a good-looking outlook, I'm an amateur, still learning)