Winter 2013-14 Discussion

[Geos]

I have a strong hunch that the NAO will trend lower in the next 2-3 weeks, but not drastically.

[Jonger]

There are all kinds of teleconnections to use to long range forecast. I choose three and label it "organic forecasting" as there is zero computer modeling effort to assist, as the "modeled" data are surface observations that have already taken place. On NOV17 the OSNW3 long range forecast algorithm (LRC-ISO and BSR) locks in. Here is a sneak peek at "days with snow" in our region. About two more weeks of data collection... the fun is beginning.

 

 

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1314/maps-dws.html

41 days for Houghton? I would think more like 60+.

[Jonger]

Here's one thing about a negative AO winter, wild swings in temps. For those that like snow cover or less fluctuations, a neutral AO is better. Season's with huge troughs and ridges often lead to torchs on the regular.

[weatherbo]

41 days for Houghton? I would think more like 60+.

last year I had over 120 days of straight snow cover. I should think Houghton can out do that.

[Jonger]

41 days for Houghton? I would think more like 60+.last year I had over 120 days of straight snow cover. I should think Houghton can out do that.

That was days of snowfall, not cover.

[wisconsinwx]

The more I think about it, the more that a somewhat warmer than average winter makes sense. If you believe the correlations, it appears we are heading for a +AO winter and often times the AO/NAO sign will match up (i.e. +AO/+NAO or -AO/-NAO) though there are times where that's not the case. On the other hand, I don't think I'd go really warm and it's not inconceivable that winter ends up colder than average if the EPO region bails us out enough times.

 

Doesn't that go for most years?  The trend is for warmer and warmer winters, although the trend is pretty consistent if not a tad more of an increase in snowfall amounts.  The last two years have been warmer than normal, even 09-10, with its suppression of the storm track relative to normal, was slightly above normal around here.

[OSNW3]

By clicking on the single months it looks to be a front sided winter.

 

The cycle is ~57 days this year. Seems D & F are slated for more days with measurable snowfalls. The model still have about two weeks until full initialization.

[Jonger]

The more I think about it, the more that a somewhat warmer than average winter makes sense. If you believe the correlations, it appears we are heading for a +AO winter and often times the AO/NAO sign will match up (i.e. +AO/+NAO or -AO/-NAO) though there are times where that's not the case. On the other hand, I don't think I'd go really warm and it's not inconceivable that winter ends up colder than average if the EPO region bails us out enough times.

Doesn't that go for most years? The trend is for warmer and warmer winters, although the trend is pretty consistent if not a tad more of an increase in snowfall amounts. The last two years have been warmer than normal, even 09-10, with its suppression of the storm track relative to normal, was slightly above normal around here.

1990-2000 was quite a bit warmer than 2000-2010, so that's not quite true.

[OSNW3]

41 days for Houghton? I would think more like 60+.

 

The map showed a DJF forecast. The model still has about two weeks until full initialization. This year I displayed the data early so people could watch the cyclic patterns evolve. I agree, the average is 58, so 60+ seems more legit.  I am certain that number will rise in the next two weeks. 

 

 

And we both know that LES varies greatly. The NWS stations in H/H (the airport) doesn't measure snow, believe it or not. I use a CoCoRaHS station to gather the snow data. Station MI-HG-1. 

[OSNW3]

That was days of snowfall, not cover.

 

Indeed. The data shows "Days with Measurable Snowfall", not snow cover. Last year the model spit out 55 days forecast for "days with snowfall" in DJF, the CoCoRaHS station that I use for observed data recorded 46. http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1213/index.html

[buckeye]

Just read Cosgrove's winter forecast.   Interesting.  WRT our subforum he has November temps below for all of us, to much below (eastern OV and Lakes).  December relatively the same, below to much below in the same areas.  January is much below for the entire subforum.  February is below for the entire subforum.

 

then he sums it up by saying it won't be a classic, historic type cold season.  

[toronto blizzard]

Just read Cosgrove's winter forecast.   Interesting.  WRT our subforum he has November temps below for all of us, to much below (eastern OV and Lakes).  December relatively the same, below to much below in the same areas.  January is much below for the entire subforum.  February is below for the entire subforum.

 

then he sums it up by saying it won't be a classic, historic type cold season.  

He will bust horribly for November that's for sure

[dmc76]

He will bust horribly for November that's for sure

Looks like Cold is building to the north should arrive after the 15th?

[michsnowfreak]

Looks like Cold is building to the north should arrive after the 15th?

Possible. Last November was colder than normal (-1.1F) but only 0.4" of snow. I'm really curious to see how this November plays out ftom a snow perspective rather than temps. As you see, a chilly November doesn't necessarily mean a snowy one, and a warm November can easily be snowier than average with one good snowfall. But our snowfall trends have been uncanny here the last decade with November seeing about 3 times LESS than the longterm average snow and February seeing nearly 3 times MORE. Obviously I will take eclipsing 2 feet instead of 9" in February and getting an inch or less instead if 3" in November, but its just weird how this is happening every single year anymore.

[Jonger]

I won't start to get concerned until about November 20th, if the same long-term garbage is visible on the models, it will risk losing parts of December. Last winter kicked in around Dec 21st in some sorts, January sucked, lets just get this this rolling by Dec 10th this year, that's 5 weeks out.

 

As always, I like local snow, but my playground is 150+ miles north.... Gaylord has been terrible the last 3-4 years for most of Decembers, let's get it rocking a bit early this year.

[Snowstorms]

Looks like Cold is building to the north should arrive after the 15th?

I doubt it...NAO and AO still remain positive with signs of the -EPO weakening. However I do belive around Nov 22 we should see a gradual decrease in temperature anomalies as I expect the AO to go more neutral combined with a neutral NAO and perhaps a negative EPO. The size and intensity of the Aleutian ride is crucial for our neck of the woods in determining how the storm track will end up. MJO may become more favorable as we head into the last week of november.

The next week 2 weeks should continue the yoyo pattern with cool downs lasting no more than 1-3 days as we already seeing this week. Despite the +AO/NAO the EPO/MJO are largely keeping us from torching.

[Jonger]

I doubt it...NAO and AO still remain positive with signs of the -EPO weakening. However I do belive around Nov 22 we should see a gradual decrease in temperature anomalies as I expect the AO to go more neutral combined with a neutral NAO and perhaps a negative EPO. The size and intensity of the Aleutian ride is crucial for our neck of the woods in determining how the storm track will end up. MJO may become more favorable as we head into the last week of november.

The next week 2 weeks should continue the yoyo pattern with cool downs lasting no more than 1-3 days as we already seeing this week. Despite the +AO/NAO the EPO/MJO are largely keeping us from torching.

 

I would prefer a neutral AO, maybe a touch below. If the AO or NAO goes too far negative, you get huge temp swings and torches every other week.

[Geos]

I'm hoping for a snow event before the 30th. Liking the AO and NAO trend to more neutral towards the 15th.

[Snowstorms]

I would prefer a neutral AO, maybe a touch below. If the AO or NAO goes too far negative, you get huge temp swings and torches every other week.

 

Yeah every variable like the QBO, GLAAM, upper stratospheric temperatures and global circulation across the Hadley Cell plus the Solar activity don't favor a strong -AO anomaly this winter and that includes the October Snow cover anomaly. I like the idea of a normal December in terms of temperatures with a warm up near the end through January and Feb-April end up being below normal temperature wise given the possibility of a mid-winter SSW similar to 2010, 2008 and even 2007. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Barring a a massive breakdown of the SAI and OPI the AO is probably going to be above 1.0 for the DJF period.  If a breakdown in the correlation has only been .5 at the max and the average is more like .1 or .2 off or so.  Then it's almost sure fire to be above 1.0.  If it's above 1.5 winter will be hard to find for us around I-70.  I-80 lots of torching.

 

 

 

if that is kept in mind then try to think of how long a period can be of a -AO or neutral but still get a 1.0+ for the DJF period.  

 

if anyone expects a 0.0 or so or under. Then you also expect Cohen and the OPI guys to be out of a job soon.

[Jonger]

The AO was negative last winter at times when the pacific was hurling buzzsaws at the northern BC coast, so having a Neg AO doesn't guarantee anything. Unfortunately its rare to have an entire Met winter of good weather, usually we waste 1/3rd of the season in a crap pattern.

I'm not saying that's going to happen, but its pretty normal. What I would give for Dec 2000 - Mid Feb 2001.

[Jonger]

Barring a a massive breakdown of the SAI and OPI the AO is probably going to be above 1.0 for the DJF period.  If a breakdown in the correlation has only been .5 at the max and the average is more like .1 or .2 off or so.  Then it's almost sure fire to be above 1.0.  If it's above 1.5 winter will be hard to find for us around I-70.  I-80 lots of torching.

 

 

 

if that is kept in mind then try to think of how long a period can be of a -AO or neutral but still get a 1.0+ for the DJF period.  

 

if anyone expects a 0.0 or so or under. Then you also expect Cohen and the OPI guys to be out of a job soon.

For your area, you really need a below normal temp pattern to get anything. With an average high of 40℉ in January, its pretty logical that you need a neg NAO and Neg AO. I'm just hoping for it to reduce its positive phase somewhat, but I really don't need the indicies to tank.

[wxman1952]

Watching and waiting for the winters first snow is like waiting for Christmas when we were kids. I hope Santa's good to us this year. lol

[Snowstorms]

Barring a a massive breakdown of the SAI and OPI the AO is probably going to be above 1.0 for the DJF period.  If a breakdown in the correlation has only been .5 at the max and the average is more like .1 or .2 off or so.  Then it's almost sure fire to be above 1.0.  If it's above 1.5 winter will be hard to find for us around I-70.  I-80 lots of torching.

 

 

 

if that is kept in mind then try to think of how long a period can be of a -AO or neutral but still get a 1.0+ for the DJF period.  

 

if anyone expects a 0.0 or so or under. Then you also expect Cohen and the OPI guys to be out of a job soon.

 

Well lets analyze current stratosphere temperatures at 50mb and 30mb; 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/50mbnhlo.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/30mbnhlo.gif

 

If you look at the links above, current stratospheric temperatures are staying around normal, give or take, despite the increase in the AO/NAO anomaly. The QBO is currently in a positive westerly phase which during periods of high solar activity would enhance the -AO/NAO anomaly though despite the rapid increase in October sunspots, things have wind down somewhat now. The AP Index remains relatively low however. I doubt solar activity would have any major impacts on this year's Arctic Oscillation as throughout the year it has remained relatively quiet. 

 

http://www.solen.info/solar/

http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2011ScienceMeeting/docs/presentations/2f_Labitzke_KEY_SORCE_2011.pdf

 

If you want more info you can read the link above; its short but informative. Given the cooler arctic temperatures this year amongst other years this past decade, this may help the cold anomalies to build up across the north and depending where the PV sets up will depend where the cold anomalies will go. In previous years the PV has set up across Siberia/Europe while we got torched. 

 

http://weather.gc.ca/forecast/city_e.html?nu-27&unit=i

 

Getting steadily cold up across Nunavut. I think the AO will overall fair positive somewhere in the range of 0.4-1.0 for DJF, with mid-late December through Mid-late January remaining mostly positive but based on my research I think by Feb through April we'll see a trend to a more -AO than positive. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Well lets analyze current stratosphere temperatures at 50mb and 30mb; 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/50mbnhlo.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/30mbnhlo.gif

 

If you look at the links above, current stratospheric temperatures are staying around normal, give or take, despite the increase in the AO/NAO anomaly. The QBO is currently in a positive westerly phase which during periods of high solar activity would enhance the -AO/NAO anomaly though despite the rapid increase in October sunspots, things have wind down somewhat now. The AP Index remains relatively low however. I doubt solar activity would have any major impacts on this year's Arctic Oscillation as throughout the year it has remained relatively quiet. 

 

http://www.solen.info/solar/

http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2011ScienceMeeting/docs/presentations/2f_Labitzke_KEY_SORCE_2011.pdf

 

If you want more info you can read the link above; its short but informative. Given the cooler arctic temperatures this year amongst other years this past decade, this may help the cold anomalies to build up across the north and depending where the PV sets up will depend where the cold anomalies will go. In previous years the PV has set up across Siberia/Europe while we got torched. 

 

http://weather.gc.ca/forecast/city_e.html?nu-27&unit=i

 

Getting steadily cold up across Nunavut. I think the AO will overall fair positive somewhere in the range of 0.4-1.0 for DJF, with mid-late December through Mid-late January remaining mostly positive but based on my research I think by Feb through April we'll see a trend to a more -AO than positive. 

 

 

DJF could be 1.0 or 1.5+ with March being -1.0.

 

I think Cohens index includes March.

 

Given the current pattern with the constant reinforcing of North Pacific SSTA to blow torch.  That worries me that we will see blocking over the Aluetians with an SLP off the West coast.

 

just making it worse.

 

 

 

Might be a very icy year for the I-80 crowd.  Snow North Lakes.  While the rest of us will probably see some massive warmth for long periods.

 

Probably long periods of +5 to +10 daily's with small periods of cold.

 

 

 

The Lakes can escape the Westerlies much better. We can see the lakes still sporting cold mid level temps.  With the NE gettng a cold blast.  While us further South West constantly get the warm intrusions.  

 

 

 

 

Or everyone gets screwed.  The teleconnectors are setting up for us all to get screwed in November.  Historic warmth even showing up.  Which may not happen.  But the GFS has almost 20C 850s in STL. That would be low to mid 80s.  Insane.  

 

[Jonger]

DJF could be 1.0 or 1.5+ with March being -1.0.

 

I think Cohens index includes March.

 

Given the current pattern with the constant reinforcing of North Pacific SSTA to blow torch.  That worries me that we will see blocking over the Aluetians with an SLP off the West coast.

 

just making it worse.

 

 

 

Might be a very icy year for the I-80 crowd.  Snow North Lakes.  While the rest of us will probably see some massive warmth for long periods.

 

Probably long periods of +5 to +10 daily's with small periods of cold.

 

 

 

The Lakes can escape the Westerlies much better. We can see the lakes still sporting cold mid level temps.  With the NE gettng a cold blast.  While us further South West constantly get the warm intrusions.  

 

 

 

 

 

Or everyone gets screwed.  The teleconnectors are setting up for us all to get screwed in November.  Historic warmth even showing up.  Which may not happen.  But the GFS has almost 20C 850s in STL. That would be low to mid 80s.  Insane.  

 

 

 

November rarely pans out to much, we average like 4 inches of snow in November. St Louis record high on the 18th is upper 70's, mid 80's isn't happening.

[Geos]

NAO looks to trend down now. Coupled with the SE ridge, cold should start pushing down into the Great Lakes after mid-month.

 

 

AO, the same. Trends down.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

November rarely pans out to much, we average like 4 inches of snow in November. St Louis record high on the 18th is upper 70's, mid 80's isn't happening.

 

I am just pointing out what the model shows.

 

Remember March of 2012.  The impossible happened then.  If we have a mid afternoon a sunshine and an 850mb fetch of 17-19C 850s.  It's going be in the 80s.

 

I agree about November not panning out.

 

but it used to a lot more.  March and November are both failing us int the long term.  Failing us bad.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

can someone help me find where I can get long term time series. 

 

my old NCDC link is broken.

[Jonger]

November has had a weird rollercoaster over the last 30 years... I went from warm to cool and back to warm again.