Winter 2013-14 Discussion

[blizzardof96]

Yes I agree. NATL SST's are very similar infact almost identical to 2008 which is encouraging for snow lovers in this subforum. The difference is the ENSO anomaly and with the MJO fighting towards a more active look I could see periods where we witness an active STJ and a SE ridge in part of the La Nada anomaly and neutral AO/NAO anomalies.

Over the next few weeks we could see weak trade winds persist across the ENSO regions as the MJO remains active and K/W waves penetrate through the cooler anomalies but subsurface temperatures deep down are still quite cold so despite the surface warming we wont see any El Nino developing in my opinion. Given the state of the QBO its unusual seeing a warm stratosphere but this could have implications in perhaps developing a more pronounced -AO anomaly esp the second half but we"ll have to wait and see. Im really liking 2008-2009, 1962-63 as primary target analogs and 1971-72 to a lesser extent. The PDO though negative remains weak and that may aide in developing a more -EPO. If the Aleutian ridge is more poleward it may help us in aiding a storm track up the Apps or up the east coast, but that remains to be seen.

In conclusion, alot of factors are at play here, and fact of the matter is we have alot of unusual things going on so this winter looks far harder to forecast than other years.

October snow correlation argues against a strong -AO anomaly somewhere between 2007-08 and 2008-09 looks to be the final outcome of the AO. A very strong -NAO like 09-10 aint good for any of us and thus far signs are against it happening this year so thats one positive thing here. Lets see. Agree?

Agree with many points being made. Oct SAI, OPI and the +AO tendency so far this fall argue for a +AO on average this winter but this is not nessasarily a bad thing for the subforum. QBO analogs point towards a moderate west based - NAO pattern developing in december with a bering sea/ southeast ridge.

Going to have to go through a potentially torchy pattern first as the mjo ramps up over the maritime continent with warm phases to follow (3-6). Afterwords the atmospheric setup at H5 should try to go to the look shown above with potential aid from the mjo later in dec. AS the winter progresses we see the tendency for the bering sea ridge to strengthen both zonally and in a poleward fassion, with a slow shift NE. Mean trough position shifts accordingly with a favourable january setup and a +ao,nao and pna by feb.

JAN

FEB

So looks like the -nao potential should be highest in dec unless we can see a ssw event later in the winter.This is favoured more in +qbo years with the HT effect coming into play.... assuming long term solar activity drops off as the +qbo\neutral ENSO/-pdo dont encourage disruption of the vortex. Early winter CW's can still happen as seen in dec '78 and '66.

[wxhstn74]

http://www.eurowx.com/

 

Give it a shot, you may like it.

 

 

I might do that but...

I have a question; In this subscription, do you receive longer period Euro's such as Monthly or SEASONAL?

[Snowstorms]

Agree with many points being made. Oct SAI, OPI and the +AO tendency so far this fall argue for a +AO on average this winter but this is not nessasarily a bad thing for the subforum. QBO analogs point towards a moderate west based - NAO pattern developing in december with a bering sea/ southeast ridge.

Going to have to go through a potentially torchy pattern first as the mjo ramps up over the maritime continent with warm phases to follow (3-6). Afterwords the atmospheric setup at H5 should try to go to the look shown above with potential aid from the mjo later in dec. AS the winter progresses we see the tendency for the bering sea ridge to strengthen both zonally and in a poleward fassion, with a slow shift NE. Mean trough position shifts accordingly with a favourable january setup and a +ao,nao and pna by feb.

So looks like the -nao potential should be highest in dec unless we can see a ssw event later in the winter.This is favoured more in +qbo years with the HT effect coming into play.... assuming long term solar activity drops off as the +qbo\neutral ENSO/-pdo dont encourage disruption of the vortex. Early winter CW's can still happen as seen in dec '78 and '66.

 

Amazing analysis, nice key points. Yes i agree for the most part. 

 

Based on my research there are few key points involved here. First the NATL SST as I've already discussed which argue against a prolonged -NAO anomaly and the GOA warm pool in combination with the -PDO in place. Essentially, -PDO's based on previous climatology have been known to bring wetter and colder than normal conditions for most of the sub forum and good examples are the historic winters in the 50's thru the 70's.  There's no sign of the dreaded AK vortex through the next 2-3 weeks which is good for all of us, as 2011-12 was historically warm. The -EPO anomaly favors a more pole-ward Aleutian Ridge which forces the cold air across Alaska/Yukon to pool down south and in combination with a -AO it can often result in prolonged cold outbreaks such as Jan 1994 or Feb 1977. 

 

I think the next 2-3 weeks see the up and down pattern persist but i expect a cooler than normal last week, perhaps a clipper or two with a cold start to December. Initial thoughts for December could result in colder than normal conditions out West with slightly below normal in this sub-forum with a weak SE Ridge, neutral AO/NAO. Despite the +AO and uptick in solar activity currently, there has been little change across the Stratosphere as it still remains above normal and if we can maintain this anomaly i believe by late Jan thru March we could be in for a great end to the Winter season, as the +QBO relaxes, and solar activity subsides perhaps leading to a SSW. I believe we will see a warm-up sometime in the Winter and my initial thoughts are around late December-early January as the MJO enters unfavorable phases, stratospheric warming slows down, and the SE ridge takes hold. It all depends where the PV sets up as in recent years its been delivering all the cold and snow on the other-side of the Pole. 

 

I dont personally base winter predictions solely on analogs as each winter can end up different than other years. There are many factors on the table, some very unusual, but I believe the second half will be great. Good start, good end, with an alright middle. I think early and Late December, Late Jan, Mid Feb to early April will be the best months for snowfall in this sub forum. 

[Geos]

Yes I agree. NATL SST's are very similar infact almost identical to 2008 which is encouraging for snow lovers in this subforum. The difference is the ENSO anomaly and with the MJO fighting towards a more active look I could see periods where we witness an active STJ and a SE ridge in part of the La Nada anomaly and neutral AO/NAO anomalies.

Over the next few weeks we could see weak trade winds persist across the ENSO regions as the MJO remains active and K/W waves penetrate through the cooler anomalies but subsurface temperatures deep down are still quite cold so despite the surface warming we wont see any El Nino developing in my opinion. Given the state of the QBO its unusual seeing a warm stratosphere but this could have implications in perhaps developing a more pronounced -AO anomaly esp the second half but we"ll have to wait and see. Im really liking 2008-2009, 1962-63 as primary target analogs and 1971-72 to a lesser extent. The PDO though negative remains weak and that may aide in developing a more -EPO. If the Aleutian ridge is more poleward it may help us in aiding a storm track up the Apps or up the east coast, but that remains to be seen.

In conclusion, alot of factors are at play here, and fact of the matter is we have alot of unusual things going on so this winter looks far harder to forecast than other years.

October snow correlation argues against a strong -AO anomaly somewhere between 2007-08 and 2008-09 looks to be the final outcome of the AO. A very strong -NAO like 09-10 aint good for any of us and thus far signs are against it happening this year so thats one positive thing here. Lets see. Agree?

 

I agree with that analysis and those years as analogs. Yeah a +AO isn't bad when you have a slightly -NAO. At least the QBO is positive, which is good for us. +14.66 @ 30 mb.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

 

Here's the teleconnections values for those winters. So we got a near neutral NAO generally. The crazy February 2008 that gave me 3 feet of snow that month had a high NAO interestingly. Then just looking at the AO, Positive to near neutral. Hopefully will get the highest AO readings in November and it will come down towards Thanksgiving.

 

[Minnesota Meso]

http://www.eurowx.com/

 

Give it a shot, you may like it.

 

 

I might do that but...

I have a question; In this subscription, do you receive longer period Euro's such as Monthly or SEASONAL?

 

To be blunt no, but I did use it for the severe event a couple of weeks backs that impacted the Omaha, Sioux City area's.  That's  when I signed up for the free trail, will wait to pay on the month to month basis until something is impacting me closer to home, however when I used it, it was very helpful.  I recommend it.

[The_Global_Warmer]

My apologies on the confrontation tone.  You guys have laid it out pretty damn good.

 

 

It would appear if we can get a decent STJ we could see some massive bombs that crush the mid to upper lakes regions.

 

 

Folks further South and East like STL-INDY-DET could be in for a rain to cold or icy type situation if we can get the Pacific to cooperate and drop the hammer on us a few times with our active STJ. 

 

 

Our local forum is honing in on 07-08.  Which was warm here but snowy.

[The_Global_Warmer]

the OPI has come in for this October at 1.64 from the main forum page thread.

 

 

Maybe it will be like 1999 and break from the correlation.  If not we are looking at a pretty damn positive AO.

 

From what I have gathered the SAI will also put us around a 1.25 AO+ for the winter. 

 

 

 

Let's hope the Pacific can deliver.

 

The last winter with an AO that high was 1991-92. Looks like this.  That is in Celsius.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Spwild47]

Where did you get the SAI value?

the OPI has come in for this October at 1.64 from the main forum page thread.

 

 

Maybe it will be like 1999 and break from the correlation.  If not we are looking at a pretty damn positive AO.

 

From what I have gathered the SAI will also put us around a 1.25 AO+ for the winter. 

 

 

 

Let's hope the Pacific can deliver.

 

The last winter with an AO that high was 1991-92. Looks like this.  That is in Celsius.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41113-and-we-begin/page-3

 

 

The slope as of Oct 27th was essentially inline with 2007.  Which basically was about a 1.0 AO+ winter.  Since the 27th snow cover over Siberia plummeted the last few days of October.  Which is why I tacked on a bit extra.

 

It will probably be numerically updated today. But won't be under a 1.0

[michsnowfreak]

Amazing analysis, nice key points. Yes i agree for the most part. 

 

Based on my research there are few key points involved here. First the NATL SST as I've already discussed which argue against a prolonged -NAO anomaly and the GOA warm pool in combination with the -PDO in place. Essentially, -PDO's based on previous climatology have been known to bring wetter and colder than normal conditions for most of the sub forum and good examples are the historic winters in the 50's thru the 70's.  There's no sign of the dreaded AK vortex through the next 2-3 weeks which is good for all of us, as 2011-12 was historically warm. The -EPO anomaly favors a more pole-ward Aleutian Ridge which forces the cold air across Alaska/Yukon to pool down south and in combination with a -AO it can often result in prolonged cold outbreaks such as Jan 1994 or Feb 1977. 

 

I think the next 2-3 weeks see the up and down pattern persist but i expect a cooler than normal last week, perhaps a clipper or two with a cold start to December. Initial thoughts for December could result in colder than normal conditions out West with slightly below normal in this sub-forum with a weak SE Ridge, neutral AO/NAO. Despite the +AO and uptick in solar activity currently, there has been little change across the Stratosphere as it still remains above normal and if we can maintain this anomaly i believe by late Jan thru March we could be in for a great end to the Winter season, as the +QBO relaxes, and solar activity subsides perhaps leading to a SSW. I believe we will see a warm-up sometime in the Winter and my initial thoughts are around late December-early January as the MJO enters unfavorable phases, stratospheric warming slows down, and the SE ridge takes hold. It all depends where the PV sets up as in recent years its been delivering all the cold and snow on the other-side of the Pole. 

 

I dont personally base winter predictions solely on analogs as each winter can end up different than other years. There are many factors on the table, some very unusual, but I believe the second half will be great. Good start, good end, with an alright middle. I think early and Late December, Late Jan, Mid Feb to early April will be the best months for snowfall in this sub forum. 

Out of curiousity....what historic winters are you referring to in the '50s-60s? There were a few decent winters in there here (though by "decent" I mean better than climo, a repeat of said winters today would still elicit nothing but complaints )....and a lot of blah ones (cold & dry, mild, mild & dry, etc), but outside of the Jan 1967 monster snowstorm that hit the western portions of our subforum, I cant think of anything historic til you hit the '70s.

[michsnowfreak]

My apologies on the confrontation tone.  You guys have laid it out pretty damn good.

 

 

It would appear if we can get a decent STJ we could see some massive bombs that crush the mid to upper lakes regions.

 

 

Folks further South and East like STL-INDY-DET could be in for a rain to cold or icy type situation if we can get the Pacific to cooperate and drop the hammer on us a few times with our active STJ. 

 

 

Our local forum is honing in on 07-08.  Which was warm here but snowy.

I cannot recall a year when I have seen one analog thrown around so frequently as I have seen 2007-08 this year. Its amazing actually, and is enough to get a weenie excited (but must remain cautious). 4th snowiest winter on record for Detroit. Now, if we want to get such a snowy, stomy winter as that, we will have to deal with a few rainstorms and thats fine....but I have a hard time believing this far north would have rain/ice problems on a repetitive basis throughout winter, that is rare. Outside of a few glazes, we havent had a good ice storm in many, many years here.

 

A 2007-08 + 2008-09 cocktail would be a dream come true.

[Snowstorms]

My apologies on the confrontation tone. You guys have laid it out pretty damn good.

It would appear if we can get a decent STJ we could see some massive bombs that crush the mid to upper lakes regions.

Folks further South and East like STL-INDY-DET could be in for a rain to cold or icy type situation if we can get the Pacific to cooperate and drop the hammer on us a few times with our active STJ.

Our local forum is honing in on 07-08. Which was warm here but snowy.

Im leaning more towards 2008-09. SST's look fairly similar globally to this year...with the weak La Nina in 08 being the only exception. It seems the overall indices could help produce a weak STJ at times and that may help fuel storms but with a weak SE ridge also likely the storms may track more inland, just how much depends on the pattern in place.

If the sun winds down through the next few weeks, as geomagnetic conditions despite a spike in sunspots remain low, it may determine how the atmospheric circulation behaves in the Hadley cell.

I think we may see a SSW later in the winter and have a cold wintry pattern in place from Feb-April with mid Dec through late Jan featuring a mostly +AO anomaly. I dont see the AO being overly positive somewhere in the lines of between 07-08 and 08-09.

[Snowstorms]

Out of curiousity....what historic winters are you referring to in the '50s-60s? There were a few decent winters in there here (though by "decent" I mean better than climo, a repeat of said winters today would still elicit nothing but complaints )....and a lot of blah ones (cold & dry, mild, mild & dry, etc), but outside of the Jan 1967 monster snowstorm that hit the western portions of our subforum, I cant think of anything historic til you hit the '70s.

Well I mean they werent bad...the 50's and 60's had some fairly alright winters far better than the 80's and 90's, lol and the 20's and 30's decades that preceded them haha.

In toronto for example, 1964-65, 1955-56 and 1949-50 were fairly snowy though I cant speak for anyone else.

[michsnowfreak]

Well I mean they werent bad...the 50's and 60's had some fairly alright winters far better than the 80's and 90's, lol and the 20's and 30's decades that preceded them haha.

In toronto for example, 1964-65, 1955-56 and 1949-50 were fairly snowy though I cant speak for anyone else.

All 3 were ok winters. Id take 1964-65. Only 49.3" of snow fell, but it included an 11" blizzard (biggest of the '60s) and tons of snowcover.

 

1955-56 was ok, 45.2" of snow but snowcover a few days shy of average, no big storms but several moderate ones. And 1949-50 saw ok snowfall (42.8") but tons of thaws and several record high temps and unusually heavy (for winter) rainstorms mixed in with cold shots and snowfalls.

 

1951-52 would be the best winter of those 2 decades here, 58.6" of snow and an excellent start (Nov-Dec snowfall 32.3").

[Geos]

I cannot recall a year when I have seen one analog thrown around so frequently as I have seen 2007-08 this year. Its amazing actually, and is enough to get a weenie excited (but must remain cautious). 4th snowiest winter on record for Detroit. Now, if we want to get such a snowy, stomy winter as that, we will have to deal with a few rainstorms and thats fine....but I have a hard time believing this far north would have rain/ice problems on a repetitive basis throughout winter, that is rare. Outside of a few glazes, we havent had a good ice storm in many, many years here.

 

A 2007-08 + 2008-09 cocktail would be a dream come true.

 

Definitely! A combination of those two would probably lead to prolonged periods of deep snow cover. I had almost 90 days (not straight) of snow cover for 2007-2008, despite the early January torch and severe wx fest. 69 days of snow cover during the 2008-09 winter to be exact.

[csnavywx]

Maybe he meant negative?

Oops, yep.

[csnavywx]

the OPI has come in for this October at 1.64 from the main forum page thread.

 

 

Maybe it will be like 1999 and break from the correlation.  If not we are looking at a pretty damn positive AO.

 

From what I have gathered the SAI will also put us around a 1.25 AO+ for the winter. 

 

 

 

Let's hope the Pacific can deliver.

 

The last winter with an AO that high was 1991-92. Looks like this.  That is in Celsius.

 

There was also a strong El Nino in place that year. A neutral ENSO/+AO composite still favors warmth, but not as strongly.

[The_Global_Warmer]

There was also a strong El Nino in place that year. A neutral ENSO/+AO composite still favors warmth, but not as strongly.

 

That's a good point.  Right now equatorial OHC is building as well as surface warmth but it's still just pushing into positive enso territory, no where near a nino yet.

 

plus I would assume there would be some lag.

[michsnowfreak]

Definitely! A combination of those two would probably lead to prolonged periods of deep snow cover. I had almost 90 days (not straight) of snow cover for 2007-2008, despite the early January torch and severe wx fest. 69 days of snow cover during the 2008-09 winter to be exact.

Locally, while the winters overall were both good, 2007-08 was decidedly backloaded and 2008-09 front loaded. I will take Dec 2008 (21.4"), Jan 2009 (26.1"), Feb 2008 (24.2"), and Mar 2008 (26.7"). Thats 98.4" already, not counting what happens in Nov or Apr

[wisconsinwx]

Well nothing will happen in November unless we can eradicate the +AO and +NAO.

[toronto blizzard]

Well nothing will happen in November unless we can eradicate the +AO and +NAO.

Who cares. Let's get this pattern out of the way now in November and set up a rocking December

[Geos]

Well nothing will happen in November unless we can eradicate the +AO and +NAO.

 

Would be nice to see the change between the 20-30th of the month. Get a front loaded winter going.

[Minnesota Meso]

Well nothing will happen in November unless we can eradicate the +AO and +NAO.

 

 

I'm not sure a raging -AO and -NAO is necessary for the northern half of this sub forum, say north of I 80.  Lets take a look at the PNA and EPO.  Both look to be strongly negative for the 1st half of the month.  With the EPO as strongly negative as it is, that leads me to believe that cold air could bleed into our sub forum from western Canada, forcing the axis of the trough's as depicted by the strongly negative PNA  to set up over the far west CONUS. In other words, cold air could set in as the energy is kicked out to the NE over the Upper Midwest.  IMO, the key player is where is the eastern ridge going to set up?  It's a bit to early to tell at this time, but if it sets up just far enough east, say over southern IL,IN and Ohio it could get interesting as storm systems ejecting out of the SWUS will follow the western edge of the ridge. Notice also that the NAO should start to drift towards neutral near the middle of the month.Please feel free to comment, just keep it civil.  ....

 

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

[Harry]

Excellent analogy. And "GlobalWarmer" I love your posts but layoff a bit, "toronto" is just having his weenie moments haha. But yeah I do agree with you as I personally believe the AO will average out more positive than negative this winter season.

We have seen a spike in solar activity recently; however, geomagnetic conditions have remaind almost the same with little change and this recent uptick hasnt done anything yet so far but I do suspect the sunspots to calm down within the next few weeks and enter another slumber. If however it does continue it may affect the atmospheric conditions in the stratosphere across the equator and in large have an effect on the AO and NAO.

The first 2-3 weeks of November shall continue its up and downward motion with cool downs lasting no more than 1-3 days though I dont expect overly warm conditions in most of the subforum as the battle of the oceans holds strong with no sign of an another AK vortex. By the last week of November, current conditions of the MJO, stratospheric temperatures and QBO suggest a change in the pattern and I could very well see a -AO anomaly developing though I dont see any prolonged period of a -NAO judging by the NATL ssts as they dont favor a strong -NAO like we have been seeing the past few winters.

I think by December things will get interesting as the MJO calms down and the K/W waves weaken thus perhaps resulting in a weak STJ anomaly developing with a -EPO in place. Sort of a pseudo LA NADA pattern with a SE ridge given the neutral NAO but thats my 2 cents. I favor a December similar to 2007 with near normal temperatures with more below normal anomalies out west.

Whats your take?

 

 

Quick comment about your solar stuff.. Remember we have a +QBO west. Typically the more solar activity the better for a -ao when we have a QBO west where as -QBO east the quieter things are the better the odd's for a -ao etc.

 

Study on this stuff..

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/baldwin0101.pdf?PHPSESSID=fbaf921c5b7ecacea03f2c32bcff8e50

 

From that article..

 

Decadal variability, possibly related to the 11-year

solar cycle, clearly exists in data records which began in

the 1950s.

Labitzke

[1987] and

Labitzke and van Loon

[1988] studied the observed late-winter NH circulation

classified by both the level of solar activity and the QBO

phase. They found a strong relation to the solar cycle

during late winter.

Naito and Hirota

[1997] confirmed

this relationship and found that early winter is domi-

nated by a robust QBO signal. Figure 19 summarizes the

solar-QBO results as scatterplots of mean 30-hPa geo-

potential heights during January and February above the

North Pole versus 10.7-cm solar radio flux (a proxy for

the 11-year cycle in solar activity). The data set can be

grouped into four categories based on the QBO phase

and solar activity level. In years with low solar activity

the polar winter vortex tends to be disturbed and weak

when the QBO is easterly, but deeper and undisturbed

when the QBO is westerly. In years with strong solar

activity, however, westerly phases of the QBO are asso-

ciated with disturbed winters, whereas easterly phases of

the QBO are accompanied by deep and undisturbed

polar vortices. Hence the QBO acts as predicted by

Holton and Tan

[1980] in years with low solar activity but

appears to reverse its behavior during years with high

solar activity. Only two cases do not fit this scheme: 1989

and 1997

[Geos]

I could help but take an interest in JB's discussion today about how the geomagnetic index plays a role in the Greenland Block. There seems to be a correlation to the Greenland Block being there during times of lower geomagnetic energy. During spikes it gets booted out.

 

 

But on the discussion of the NAO, it would favor most of this subforum is the NAO fell to a range of -/+0.3.

[OSNW3]

There are all kinds of teleconnections to use to long range forecast. I choose three and label it "organic forecasting" as there is zero computer modeling effort to assist, as the "modeled" data are surface observations that have already taken place. On NOV17 the OSNW3 long range forecast algorithm (LRC-ISO and BSR) locks in. Here is a sneak peek at "days with snow" in our region. About two more weeks of data collection... the fun is beginning.

 

 

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1314/maps-dws.html

[Spwild47]

I agree..the strongest correlations at least for the northwestern part of the forum is a negative PNA and negative PDO which both a strong correlation to winter cold and snowfall.

I'm not sure a raging -AO and -NAO is necessary for the northern half of this sub forum, say north of I 80.  Lets take a look at the PNA and EPO.  Both look to be strongly negative for the 1st half of the month.  With the EPO as strongly negative as it is, that leads me to believe that cold air could bleed into our sub forum from western Canada, forcing the axis of the trough's as depicted by the strongly negative PNA  to set up over the far west CONUS. In other words, cold air could set in as the energy is kicked out to the NE over the Upper Midwest.  IMO, the key player is where is the eastern ridge going to set up?  It's a bit to early to tell at this time, but if it sets up just far enough east, say over southern IL,IN and Ohio it could get interesting as storm systems ejecting out of the SWUS will follow the western edge of the ridge. Notice also that the NAO should start to drift towards neutral near the middle of the month.Please feel free to comment, just keep it civil.  ....

 

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

[Hoosier]

The more I think about it, the more that a somewhat warmer than average winter makes sense. If you believe the correlations, it appears we are heading for a +AO winter and often times the AO/NAO sign will match up (i.e. +AO/+NAO or -AO/-NAO) though there are times where that's not the case. On the other hand, I don't think I'd go really warm and it's not inconceivable that winter ends up colder than average if the EPO region bails us out enough times.

[DAFF]

There are all kinds of teleconnections to use to long range forecast. I choose three and label it "organic forecasting" as there is zero computer modeling effort to assist, as the "modeled" data are surface observations that have already taken place. On NOV17 the OSNW3 long range forecast algorithm (LRC-ISO and BSR) locks in. Here is a sneak peek at "days with snow" in our region. About two more weeks of data collection... the fun is beginning.

 

 

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1314/maps-dws.html

 

By clicking on the single months it looks to be a front sided winter.

[Snowstorms]

 

 

Quick comment about your solar stuff.. Remember we have a +QBO west. Typically the more solar activity the better for a -ao when we have a QBO west where as -QBO east the quieter things are the better the odd's for a -ao etc.

 

Study on this stuff..

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/baldwin0101.pdf?PHPSESSID=fbaf921c5b7ecacea03f2c32bcff8e50

 

From that article..

 

Oh yes, i forgot to add that, very informative, thanks. Much appreciated.  

 

Recently, sunspots have gone down, which is reasonable considering geomagnetic conditions didn't really change in accordance to the sunspots rising. Analyzing just solar data, I believe we could see a SSW later in the winter perhaps around Late Jan-early Feb, which may produce cold outbreaks Mid Feb-April, meaning a late end to the winter season, similar to 2010-2011. It all depends how the atmospheric circulation behaves across the Hadley Cell through the next few months.

 

If the AO/NAO remain positive then trend more negative as we get deeper into the season, all the cold air being bottled up north in that time period will come in vengeance far south which is why i believe if we do see cold outbreaks they could be brutal but not long-lasting depending on the AO/NAO and how the EPO behaves.

 

Very complicated outlook, too many variables.