Hoosier Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 We are a long way away from winter but not too early to discuss it. Gonna keep it simple and talk about everyone's favorite index, ENSO. El Nino has failed to materialize so far and model forecasts are not optimistic about it happening in time for winter, so we are probably looking at another neutral winter. So, here are the winters since 1950 that are officially classified as neutral based on ONI, with a W or C representing which side of neutral they were. 56-57 C 59-60 C 60-61 near 0 61-62 C 62-63 C 66-67 C 67-68 C 78-79 C 79-80 W 80-81 C 81-82 C 85-86 C 89-90 W 90-91 W 92-93 W 93-94 W 96-97 C 01-02 C 03-04 W 12-13 C Out of these years, I took a peek at what the multi-year neutrals were like around here and most were pretty run of the mill with some exceptions. Anyhow, it's just one index. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 First call on someone wanting to punt until 2014-2015? I'd say Sept 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 I really just want a front loaded winter. Lets kick this off Dec 1st and taper it back starting March 1st. I want a true meteorologic winter, last year we lost the first month of met winter and ate away into met spring about a month deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 It will be interesting to see if the western ridge eastern trough pattern keeps on going until then and whether the colder Arctic this summer will have any effects. Last year's back loaded winter was nice, but it was awfully boring here up until late January. Right before Christmas is a good time to get this rolling. I would always take another 2007-2008 winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioWX Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 I'm really itching to have a snowy November. The last time we had a decent November was 2008, and I can't even recall the last time we had a true November snowstorm in this region (lake-effect not included.) I know it's still really unlikely but it would make me pretty happy. If not, I'd be content with having a good storm in the first half of December. At the very least, I hope we don't have to wait until December 20th for winter to actually start and have it not end until mid-April like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 I feel like i'm due for something big here. Haven't had anything WSW worthy since the March 7,8 2008 storm. Yes I had a blizzard warning during this past winter but it didn't really live up to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Wouldn't mind a 98/99 again. That January was something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 I haven't had a 6 inch depth here since Nov 29th 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Wouldn't mind a 98/99 again. That January was something else. Meh. Aside from those two weeks in January when the blizzard hit, that winter was a disaster snowstorm-wise. Still, it was worth it just to have something like the Blizzard of '99 happen. It was also warm, which was a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Ya. January alone made that season one the best ever. Besides by mid Feb most people want winter to DIF so its mild finish was nice. As for an extreme winter I could tolerate another 2010/11 as long a legit powerhouse system rips through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Indy Outlook by Rob Guarino - Prediction 24" under El Nino conditions... http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=27&topicid=8298&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 5% chance of a weak El Nino. 0% chance of a moderate El Nino. More likely, cold neutral conditions prevail. First guess for LAF: 10-40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 It would be nice to have a snowy but near average temp winter, basically a slightly warmer version of an 07-08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Well, 1998-1999, 2007-2008 and 2010-2011 were all Ninas maxing in the -1.5 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Give me an average winter, spread appropriately throughout winter. The fact I did not break the 1" mark until mid January left a sour taste in my mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 We've now gone two winters in a row without a single 6"+ storm, so give me one of those and I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Looking for a cold start to winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 27, 2013 Author Share Posted July 27, 2013 Looking for a cold start to winter! ImageUploadedByTapatalk1374964839.131570.jpg We'd probably be better off with it showing a torch at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 We'd probably be better off with it showing a torch at this range. I don't think the CFS is capable of showing a torch at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 I don't think the CFS is capable of showing a torch at this range.Until late last year, I thought the cfs always torched in the long range. Certainly I've never seen it this cold in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Until late last year, I thought the cfs always torched in the long range. Certainly I've never seen it this cold in the long range. Maybe, I don't know. I don't look at it much, but in the past...it seems to always have been cool biased. Regardless, I don't think it has a ton of skill in the long range. Though, it seems that its "very short term" monthly forecasts have been decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 I don't think the CFS is capable of showing a torch at this range. Oh it has. Remember this is the revised CFS. The old CFS tended to be always on the cooler side but not the newer one. STILL I wouldn't put too much faith in such long range models. NOW if it keeps showing the same ( for a few month's ) then it may be something to take note of. At this moment in time i am liking the odd's of a colder and snowier ( for some ) winter. See precip patterns, +QBO, and ENSO but ofcourse enso can still change granted it is looking less and less likely we go mod/strong Nina or Nina. This current summer pattern is not bad either as it should time well with a warmer fall and colder winter. Ofcourse the warmer fall is kinda shaky as warmer stretches have been much more short lived for a number of month's now unlike the past several years which saw relentless above normal temps. Odd's favor the colder outcome but yeah we know how that works too and thus best to keep tracking everything else. Also very nice to see the Arctic cooling off nicely but ofcourse this could change later on but if it continues and stays colder then yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Oh it has. Remember this is the revised CFS. The old CFS tended to be always on the cooler side but not the newer one. STILL I wouldn't put too much faith in such long range models. NOW if it keeps showing the same ( for a few month's ) then it may be something to take note of. At this moment in time i am liking the odd's of a colder and snowier ( for some ) winter. See precip patterns, +QBO, and ENSO but ofcourse enso can still change granted it is looking less and less likely we go mod/strong Nina or Nina. This current summer pattern is not bad either as it should time well with a warmer fall and colder winter. Ofcourse the warmer fall is kinda shaky as warmer stretches have been much more short lived for a number of month's now unlike the past several years which saw relentless above normal temps. Odd's favor the colder outcome but yeah we know how that works too and thus best to keep tracking everything else. Also very nice to see the Arctic cooling off nicely but ofcourse this could change later on but if it continues and stays colder then yeah. Yeah, that sounds right. CFS...and the upcoming winter. We'll hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 Yeah, that sounds right. CFS...and the upcoming winter. We'll hope for the best. I don't want to be greedy but it would be nice if we could get another 10 incher this winter, preferably before late March. It happened in 06-07 and 07-08 so we know it's possible in b2b winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 I don't want to be greedy but it would be nice if we could get another 10 incher this winter, preferably before late March. It happened in 06-07 and 07-08 so we know it's possible in b2b winters. If things would've broke right with the Jan 31-Feb 1, 2008 storm, it could've been three in the 06-07 and 07-08 winters. Actually four if we dream a little...but March 2008, well you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 I can imagine this will be the reaction at various times throughout the winter, after looking at model runs. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50vlHm4TNpI&t=5m0s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 If things would've broke right with the Jan 31-Feb 1, 2008 storm, it could've been three in the 06-07 and 07-08 winters. Actually four if we dream a little...but March 2008, well you know. Yeah, I always forget about that Jan 31 storm. That was a nice run that could've been legendary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Yeah, I always forget about that Jan 31 storm. That was a nice run that could've been legendary. That one looked good close in, but turned into a ragged mess for us. Still a 6"+ storm, but what could have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Not a huge fan of this winter. We are due for a global pattern change over North America and I could see that run right through winter. I think last year was letdown in some respects to March, a ton of potential, just never came together. The PAC ridging this April-July is what we need in the winter. I can't say I disagree in a sense but so far it has been ridging out West, not over the PAC so if anything I think the pattern now wouldn't be favorable in the winter, as most of the stuff this summer has been NW flow events which in the winter would be a parade of clippers. I'd argue the prospect of troughing out West and Southeast ridging this winter would be a pattern change from what we have currently and this would be more favorable for a snowier winter albeit probably near average to slightly above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Yeah, that sounds right. CFS...and the upcoming winter. We'll hope for the best. Just peaked at it again and torchartie probably had to go change his shorts because now it has a all out torch from Dec through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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