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July 26-27 Coastal Storm Discussion/Obs


Baroclinic Zone

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light rain for the last hour here but still i agree this would make alot of people angry in winter

lol.  If this were winter the W. MA / GC crew would be b*tching about getting shafted on qpf.  

 

Drove RT 2 from Cambridge to Greenfield this evening and went from torrential rain inside I-495  to light rain past Fitchburg to misty in Gardner to bone dry in the Pioneer Valley. 

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Just found out my granddaughter Caroline was with her Grandfather when they were stuck in Yantic floodwaters and had to be rescued by Ffs. No real danger but apparently it happened in a flash while stuck in traffic

Wow! That's still scary even if there wasnt any real danger. Good to hear all is well. Where in Yantic did it happen?

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live by the NAM...die by the NAM.

it's now got .5" at the canal. :lol:

I was surprised by the BOX AFD which said the 18z NAM was handling the banding well...

"Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/... regional radar mosaic continues to exhibit decent frontogenetical banding of rainfall across portions of southern New England. First band extended across central CT...through central Massachusetts into the Merrimack River valley. 25/18z NAM...along with the 25/20z hrrr and 25/21z rap...seem to be handling this banding the best. All these guidance sources also have a timing similar to previous forecast with regards to handling rainfall associated with a coastal low pressure."

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Looks to me like euro will win. Steady moderate rain with radar suggestive of a euro esque solution from now through mid day.

Maybe...but it has a lot of work to do. I'm at 0.02" of my progged 1". It looks a little east of the euro to me. The really heavy stuff is approachingg ACK and CQX, but the Euro takes it up through PSM.
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Just found out my granddaughter Caroline was with her Grandfather when they were stuck in Yantic floodwaters and had to be rescued by Ffs. No real danger but apparently it happened in a flash while stuck in traffic

 

So glad to hear about a happy ending, Steve.

 

mod rain was kind of surprised when i woke up

 

 

Euro still gung-ho for 1"+ up here and 2"+ at the coast. NAM/GFS have only a couple tenths. Even the SREFs came way east. Pretty epic.

 

Not a drop of rain here in GC so far.  Where's my qpf????? :)

 

60.6/56

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Meanwhile, Euro 2m temps have 60s for most of NH this afternoon while the MAV/MET have low 80s/upper 70s respectively. Disaster.

For E MA areas GFS tends to be overshooting it. Don't see upper 70s/low 80s happening here, especially given the precip and clouds. NAM has 73F for KBOS and GFS has 79F. Euro also appears to be similar to the NAM solution in regards to temperatures.

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Maybe...but it has a lot of work to do. I'm at 0.02" of my progged 1". It looks a little east of the euro to me. The really heavy stuff is approachingg ACK and CQX, but the Euro takes it up through PSM.

I'd say the euro was too far west. Didn't follow it to closely but the heaviest rain was east of me all night.

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I'd say the euro was too far west. Didn't follow it to closely but the heaviest rain was east of me all night.

 

The whole system was a little disjointed though. There were 2 areas of forcing... once over E CT and another east of the Cape. Had it been more well organized and consolidated it would have been a super soaker for the Cape. 

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From UPTON

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS


********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
RAINFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
YANTIC 5.25 800 PM 7/25 MESONET
1 S OAKDALE 3.17 759 PM 7/25 MESONET
2 SSE FOUR CORNERS 1.96 754 PM 7/25 MESONET
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