GaWx Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 If Dorian does end up dissipating over open water or over Hispaniola, it would be doing what about 1 in 4 July-Aug CV storms have done since ~1960...i.e., it is a rather common outcome. It is about as common as a US hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Dorian looks like my golf game, ugly at best. More like The Picture of Dorian Gray. The more you look, the worse he appears in the mirror. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Downgraded to a wave @ 5pm. Time to put this one down Ol'Yeller style... AL, 04, 2013072718, , BEST, 0, 187N, 536W, 35, 1011, WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 If last nights diurnal convective max didn't rejuvenate Dorian, tonight's won't either, but a nice burst of convection with Tropical Wave Dorian. Last hurrah of an out of (red meat) season MDR system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 The last run of the hwrf had this going on if you looked at the RH fields and rainfall. The thunderstorms were bursty and lasted for 6 to 18 hours but the surface never responded in deepening the pressure field to concentrate the convection. Its might rain from here to Cuba but the surface winds may never turn west again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 It appears the remnants of Dorian made a bit of a come back overnight and is now designated 91L. RECON is scheduled to investigate from St Croix later today as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 It appears the remnants of Dorian made a bit of a come back overnight and is now designated 91L. RECON is scheduled to investigate from St Croix later today as well. The GFS shows Dorian regenerating at some point in the 3-5 day range as the remains approach FL. The interesting thing is that the GFS now shows a robust mid-level vortex developing in the next couple of days that has a difficult time bring back a surface reflection. Thats not unlike what the ECMWF has been trying to do the last few days, although it fails to bring the surface circulation back to life. I'm sorta rooting for them to send a recon flight into the remains of Dorian today. ASCAT is nice and works well most of the time, but it still seems to have the most difficulty investigating systems that are producing deep convection (and large cirrus plumes). For example, it had Chantal as an open wave even when there was conclusive evidence that Chantal had a closed circulation per recon. We haven't yet had that benefit with Dorian, and its possible a weak low-level circulation still exist (as there was evidence of that on visible yesterday, despite the ASCAT pass). We'll see how well the convection can hold together today. While the low-level flow still seems to be a tad faster than the upper-level flow, the low-level ridge has weakened the last 48 hours. The bigger question is if the cirrus plume with Dorian right now is large enough to overcome the TUTT feature located to its west. This upper-level trough has been weakening the last few days, and as long as Ex-Dorian can hold its convective vigor, it could be very interesting to see how these two features interact in the near future. Latest microwave pass is suggestive... if there is a center is probably around 20N/60.5W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 I'm not suggesting anything, but one open wave in the past that comes to mind (pretty much written off) similar track and synoptic setup. Umm...leave that one to the tropical experts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 28, 2013 Author Share Posted July 28, 2013 I'm not suggesting anything, but one open wave in the past that comes to mind (pretty much written off) similar track and synoptic setup. Umm...leave that one to the tropical experts. Was it this open wave? Or maybe this open wave: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 That is Fay. I was thinking more on the line of another, but again not suggesting anything. My point is that any disturbance should be carefully watched until its buried and formerly called Dorian should not be writ off yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Im guessing your thinking andrew but that would be a long shot That is Fay. I was thinking more on the line of another, but again not suggesting anything. My point is that any disturbance should be carefully watched until its buried and formerly called Dorian should not be writ off yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Intensity models look good, how does shear look as it nears the Bahamas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 The GFS shows Dorian regenerating at some point in the 3-5 day range as the remains approach FL. The interesting thing is that the GFS now shows a robust mid-level vortex developing in the next couple of days that has a difficult time bring back a surface reflection. It finally brings back a surface reflection in of all places, off of Virginia to Massachusetts as it recurves after passing over Southern Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Im guessing your thinking andrew but that would be a long shot I'm high-tailing it out of here. Just trying to have friendly input, engage some thoughts. But not here. Enough with my useless clutter, carry-on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsouth Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Not positive that there is a closed circulation, but it's not out of the question. What I do see is a very sharp trough axis extending down to at least Guadaloupe. On satellite, you can see that the low clouds around Guadaloupe are nearly stationary. The winds at Barbuda are interesting as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 The GFS shows Dorian regenerating at some point in the 3-5 day range as the remains approach FL. The interesting thing is that the GFS now shows a robust mid-level vortex developing in the next couple of days that has a difficult time bring back a surface reflection. Thats not unlike what the ECMWF has been trying to do the last few days, although it fails to bring the surface circulation back to life. I'm sorta rooting for them to send a recon flight into the remains of Dorian today. ASCAT is nice and works well most of the time, but it still seems to have the most difficulty investigating systems that are producing deep convection (and large cirrus plumes). For example, it had Chantal as an open wave even when there was conclusive evidence that Chantal had a closed circulation per recon. We haven't yet had that benefit with Dorian, and its possible a weak low-level circulation still exist (as there was evidence of that on visible yesterday, despite the ASCAT pass). We'll see how well the convection can hold together today. While the low-level flow still seems to be a tad faster than the upper-level flow, the low-level ridge has weakened the last 48 hours. The bigger question is if the cirrus plume with Dorian right now is large enough to overcome the TUTT feature located to its west. This upper-level trough has been weakening the last few days, and as long as Ex-Dorian can hold its convective vigor, it could be very interesting to see how these two features interact in the near future. Latest microwave pass is suggestive... if there is a center is probably around 20N/60.5W The environment ahead is certainly more unstable than what ex-Dorian has passed through over the past several days. Really, conditions in the Bahamas are actually not so bad aside from the TUTT, which based upon latest satellite data may weaken a bit faster than what the GFS shows. Because ex-Dorian is generating so much convection, it is already starting to redevelop a (rather robust?) MLC almost exactly where you mention a possible LLC. This could mean that ex-Dorian, if it regenerates, may be a bit stronger than what the dynamical models show within the next four days. After all, the LGEM and DSHP have been consistently forecasting a 50- or 60-kt TS sometime within this time frame. I am not saying that it will happen, but I could easily see a scenario in which some models bust re: low prospects of regeneration. Because ex-Dorian has remained weak in the short term, this should allow a track N of Hispaniola and through the Bahamas and into SE FL, which is certainly different from my expectations of dissipation over Hispaniola. Now I am willing to countenance a regeneration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 ^^ Lol...we don't need the rain, that's for sure. No where to put water from Lake O. Might not be a good situation hurricane or tropical wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Not positive that there is a closed circulation, but it's not out of the question. What I do see is a very sharp trough axis extending down to at least Guadaloupe. On satellite, you can see that the low clouds around Guadaloupe are nearly stationary. The winds at Barbuda are interesting as well. If you look at the low clouds under the cirrus shield further N, I suppose they could reflect 10 knot or so SW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Just FWIW, here is the 12z intensity model plot: Recon in a few hours should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Recon just took off... Fingers crossed that this is still just a wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Recon just took off... Fingers crossed that this is still just a wave. My guess is that it still is.. with TS force winds N of the wave axis. Chantal-esk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Eyeballing visible, low clouds South of latest bursts look to be nearly stationary, Earth relative. About 18.5N and 60.5W Or, it looks close to closing off. Recon shall be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Eyeballing visible, low clouds South of latest bursts look to be nearly stationary, Earth relative. About 18.5N and 60.5W Or, it looks close to closing off. Recon shall be interesting. ASCAT from a few hours ago had what appears to be a closed low a little southeast of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 The GFS shows Dorian regenerating at some point in the 3-5 day range as the remains approach FL. The interesting thing is that the GFS now shows a robust mid-level vortex developing in the next couple of days that has a difficult time bring back a surface reflection. Thats not unlike what the ECMWF has been trying to do the last few days, although it fails to bring the surface circulation back to life. Perhaps the 12Z GFS does not show as much of a mid-level circulation due to the influx of some drier mid-level air from the NE. The low-level ridge shifts W over the next two days and may continue to allow some SAL into the N side of the system. Is that why convection is still pulsating at this time? If so, then the mid-level dry air would prevent shear from being less due to less convection (= less outflow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL ASWINDS TO GALE FORCE...A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH AND NORTHEAST OFTHE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ISCURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSEDLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER HAVE REDEVELOPED.ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FORREGENERATION...BUT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD LEADTO THE REFORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUMCHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO20 MPH...PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAYAND MONDAY...AND MOVING OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ANDSOUTHERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Strongly worded TWO for only 30% A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL ASWINDS TO GALE FORCE...A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH AND NORTHEAST OFTHE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ISCURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSEDLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER HAVE REDEVELOPED.ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FORREGENERATION...BUT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD LEADTO THE REFORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUMCHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO20 MPH...PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAYAND MONDAY...AND MOVING OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ANDSOUTHERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY. 12z HWRF and GFDL do virtually nothing with 91L/xDorian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 1013.3mb looks to be min extrap pressure. Thus far just West of due North (From 351 degrees) is what Recon has found with a Westward component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Well thats a bit of a windshift. A bit further west than I expected. We probably have a LLC and MLC discontinuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 Some light SW winds, 8kt from 207 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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