Snow_Miser Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 00z ATCF has Dorian at 50 kt/60 mph and 1000 mb. Continues to gradually intensify it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Looks like we can expect the GFS to stop with the hurricane intensity garbage tomorrow @ 12z SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD1502Z WED JUL 24 2013DUE TO THE THREAT OF CWD NEXT WEEK FOR THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THEATLANTIC, NCEP/NCO IS MOVING THE "GO LIVE" OF THE NEW WCOSSSUPERCOMPUTERS UP TO TOMORROW, THURSDAY 7/25.THE PRODUCTION SUITE ON WCOSS SYSTEM TIDE WILL BEGIN SENDING OUTTHE OFFICIAL OPERATIONAL PRODUCTS AT ROUGHLY 1230Z. DATADISSEMINATION FROM THE CURRENT CCS SUPERCOMPUTER WILL CEASE ATTHAT POINT, ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO COME FROM THECCS AS THEY BLEED OFF OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER THE SWITCHTO WCOSS SYSTEM TIDE. AL, 04, 2013072500, , BEST, 0, 149N, 324W, 50, 1000, TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 This is strengthening over cooler waters, that could be bad news in a few days as at that time it will have more octane to work with and no one should let their guard down after a week as if the ridge is stronger than modeled this could hit Florida or the eastern gulf or close to modeled it could hit the Carolinas to the Northeast or even the Canadian Maritimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 This is strengthening over cooler waters, that could be bad news in a few days as at that time it will have more octane to work with and no one should let their guard down after a week as if the ridge is stronger than modeled this could hit Florida or the eastern gulf or close to modeled it could hit the Carolinas to the Northeast or even the Canadian Maritimes Gulf to the Canadian Maritimes. Got it. BTW, anybody NOAA-ish have the number to whoever does the SSD floaters? They are still using the Euro satellite, and I want to see Dorian in frequently updating cold clouds topped glory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Let's just remember this thing has a long ways to go and a few more obstacles to overcome. I'll be happy if she just keeps some semblance of a core over the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 I'm surprised at how well Dorian is doing. It's currently passing over what should be the coldest waters of its existence, 25C, and still firing decent convection over its center. I would not be surprised at all to see this system become a bit stronger than forecast both in the short-term and in the longer term. The GFS indicates there should be an upper-level trough in the Bahamas region in a few days, but if Dorian is a formidable tropical storm or minimal hurricane, it could bust through this and continue to intensify. It's a wait-and-see situation. EDIT: and by the way...the NHC changed their mind (back down to 45kt) -- AL, 04, 2013072500, , BEST, 0, 149N, 324W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 30, 1014, 120, 20, 60, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D, I'd assume it's based on a recent ASCAT pass. Not particularly suggestive of anything stronger yet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 This is strengthening over cooler waters, that could be bad news in a few days as at that time it will have more octane to work with and no one should let their guard down after a week as if the ridge is stronger than modeled this could hit Florida or the eastern gulf or close to modeled it could hit the Carolinas to the Northeast or even the Canadian Maritimes In other words, we don't know where it's going yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 I'm surprised at how well Dorian is doing. It's currently passing over what should be the coldest waters of its existence, 25C, and still firing decent convection over its center. I would not be surprised at all to see this system become a bit stronger than forecast both in the short-term and in the longer term. The GFS indicates there should be an upper-level trough in the Bahamas region in a few days, but if Dorian is a formidable tropical storm or minimal hurricane, it could bust through this and continue to intensify. It's a wait-and-see situation. Seems the last few years when there's a TD or TS over the Caribbean the warm water induced crapvection ends up producing outflow boundaries and secondary centers that do the storm more harm than good. Maybe the slightly cooler less explosive environment is better before the system reaches hurricane strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 In other words, we don't know where it's going yet. I would say that a FL or E-Gulf hit is probably out of the question, given the stronger intensity of Dorian in the short term (=more northerly track through 24 hours before bending back just N of due west) and the relatively zonal pattern forecast for days five through seven. Even with a faster component to Dorian through the forecast period, the ridge does not look to be strong enough to force a strong TS Dorian into the FL coast. The real question is whether the timing and amplitude of the shortwave will interact with a more westerly Dorian on days six and seven, thereby forcing a path into the Carolinas or a close bypass to SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 The system has really good outflow right now thanks to the shear relaxing. The water vapor loop shows considerable expansion of moisture in all quadrants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Captured a sunset image over Dorian. Interesting 'little spin' at 10N/35W at that time. Southern flack may provide enough inflow to at least maintain development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 FWIW, the WCOSS GFS is the same as the Old "CSS" GFS. No changes have been made to the actual "code" except for a very small number of things they had to fix because the new WCOSS super computer didn't support those processes. Apparently, it runs 4 min faster on the WCOSS though. Maybe dtk can shed some more light on why it looks slightly different.We are actually going live with the new supercomputer tomorrow instead of next week because of this system. The model has only been changed in terms of portability.....for the new hardware, os, compiler, etc. This means the codes are not bit reproducible. Having been cycled for a while, you expect to see differences. However, in a time mean sense, the differences should be random and not systematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 250247 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 PM AST WED JUL 24 2013 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DORIAN HAS BECOME MORE EMBEDDED BENEATH THE COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW A CONSENSUS T3.0/45 KT WHILE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 50-55 KT. BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA...HOWEVER...DORIAN MAY NOT BE PRODUCING SURFACE WINDS ANY HIGHER THAN ABOUT 40 KT. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE RESOLUTION OF ASCAT SINCE DORIAN IS A SMALL CYCLONE...SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. THE MOTION REMAINS 285/17 KT WITH DORIAN LYING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DETACH FROM THE RIDGE AND MOVE WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF DORIAN FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD... KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A QUICK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK MODELS ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AN ANIMATION OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATES THAT THE WATERS AHEAD OF DORIAN HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER WATERS A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION...DORIAN SHOULD BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. THEREFORE...THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST NO LONGER SHOWS SHORT-TERM WEAKENING AND INSTEAD INDICATES SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THROUGH DAY 5. THIS FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT UNTIL WE KNOW HOW DORIAN FARES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 15.1N 33.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 15.7N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 16.5N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 17.2N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 17.9N 46.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 19.0N 54.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 20.0N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 20.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 250247 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 PM AST WED JUL 24 2013 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DORIAN HAS BECOME MORE EMBEDDED BENEATH THE COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW A CONSENSUS T3.0/45 KT WHILE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 50-55 KT. BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA...HOWEVER...DORIAN MAY NOT BE PRODUCING SURFACE WINDS ANY HIGHER THAN ABOUT 40 KT. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE RESOLUTION OF ASCAT SINCE DORIAN IS A SMALL CYCLONE...SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. THE MOTION REMAINS 285/17 KT WITH DORIAN LYING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DETACH FROM THE RIDGE AND MOVE WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF DORIAN FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD... KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A QUICK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK MODELS ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AN ANIMATION OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATES THAT THE WATERS AHEAD OF DORIAN HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER WATERS A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION...DORIAN SHOULD BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. THEREFORE...THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST NO LONGER SHOWS SHORT-TERM WEAKENING AND INSTEAD INDICATES SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THROUGH DAY 5. THIS FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT UNTIL WE KNOW HOW DORIAN FARES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 15.1N 33.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 15.7N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 16.5N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 17.2N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 17.9N 46.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 19.0N 54.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 20.0N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 20.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG I think the bolded is pretty important. The Marginal SSTs may not be as much of a limiting factor as previously thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Cyclone remains completely shielded from any dry air so far. It'll be interesting to see what the system looks like once it's at 60W and we have recon visiting it periodically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Would be awesome to have a nice healthy cape verde cyclone to track over the next week. looks like there will be limiting factors in dorian's way as it approaches the antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 I'll be preparing in Ft.Lauderdale just incase. This is getting exciting by the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Anyone else surprised that Dorian has held so good? Nice moisture pocket, good outflow and inflow, lack of significant SAL, not too much easterly shear, warming waters ahead. For a late July Cape Verde we could do worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 I'll be preparing in Ft.Lauderdale just incase. This is getting exciting by the day. You just jinxed it. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Not too shabby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 25, 2013 Author Share Posted July 25, 2013 Anyone else surprised that Dorian has held so good? Nice moisture pocket, good outflow and inflow, lack of significant SAL, not too much easterly shear, warming waters ahead. For a late July Cape Verde we could do worse. The lack of SAL was a real wildcard. As others have stated previously, you simply don't see this little SAL in the Atlantic basin in late July. It potentially also may explain why the SSTs the storm is traversing currently have warmed up significantly (since more sensible heating is making it to the ocean surface, rather than being absorbed by the dust). Just take a look at previous years compared to currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 The lack of SAL was a real wildcard. As others have stated previously, you simply don't see this little SAL in the Atlantic basin in late July. It potentially also may explain why the SSTs the storm is traversing currently have warmed up significantly (since more sensible heating is making it to the ocean surface, rather than being absorbed by the dust). Just take a look at previous years compared to currently. Dorian is a tightly coiled tropical storm as well, unlike many previous Cape Verde systems in the last three or four years. Any chance Dorian could pop out a donut eye and become a 65 kt hurricane in the next 48-72 hrs and then weaken and wax and wane through 120 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Bed time, but through 5 days, it should be approaching an area that has 500 mb winds from the South, but if you look at the animation, the center of the 500 mb ridge is moving along with it, such that it hasn't started to really recurve yet. Work tomorrow, the ridge keeps travelling with it, and that East Coast trough starts to dampens out as model is suggesting through 120 hours, well, not the most likely scenario, but glass 5/64th optimistic on a Florida-Carolina's hit. Even if it is a fish storm, I predict random model runs, or at least ensemble members, that keep SE, MA, PHL, NYC and SNE forums interesting for at least the next five days. Maybe closer to 10 if we're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Not too shabby... Wow, looking great tonight during d-max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Given that high pressure stays intact and the progged trough over the CONUS deepens enough and moves east to bring it up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 A big vortex looks to be puching through eastern canada at the time. WIll probably recurve unless it weakens substantially on future runs and another trough digs in MS Valley. If the ridge is a little further southwest it maybe able to hit florida but I'm just guessing at this point, and assuming it hasn't been ripped apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 25, 2013 Author Share Posted July 25, 2013 Dorian is a tightly coiled tropical storm as well, unlike many previous Cape Verde systems in the last three or four years. Any chance Dorian could pop out a donut eye and become a 65 kt hurricane in the next 48-72 hrs and then weaken and wax and wane through 120 hrs? We'll have to see that the latest microwave passes show... it could be anywhere from a minimal hurricane with a microwave eye to a partially exposed circulation on the edge of the cirrus canopy. Really no way to know unless we get a good overnight TRMM pass or SSMI. The lower resolution microwave imagers don't help a bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Very tight 850 vort at 165 entering Eastern Bahamas http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=wnatl¶m=850_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_wnatl_165_850_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Very well could be. Given that high pressure stays intact and the progged trough over the CONUS deepens enough and moves east to bring it up the coast. Yeah I suppose that'd be true. I guess I just was anticipating this to be dominated in the low level flow much more than it appears to be doing thus far. Yowza... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Looks like 00z GFS is going to be a SE coast hit by the looks/pos of Dorian at 192 unless there is a hard recurve starting right there Of course, we could always then buy that from 192-240 Dorian sits around off SE coast and meanders... prob due to poor steering currents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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