Amped Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 ugh, how can this thing not develop a llc. looks gorgeous. Todays convective blowup dissapeted. I agree, the outflow and symmetry are impressive for an open wave. It would almost look worse if convection tried to fire near the LLC and away from the main blob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 The intensity models are all rubbish since this doesnt have anything close to a closed low, I'm on board with the globals with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 It would almost look worse if convection tried to fire near the LLC and away from the main blob. Which it actually seems to be doing at the moment, now that you mention it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Which it actually seems to be doing at the moment, now that you mention it. I think the trough axis is further west, around or just west of 70W. The convection fired up on top of the mid level low, and the upper flow skeleton that's dying is back east, with the TUTT doing the traffic cop job. Latest ASCAT and vorticity analysis seem to confirm this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 You guys still picking at these old bones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 You guys still picking at these old bones? what other bones are there to pick? I feel like I'm on bread and water rations and we just ran out of bread. Of well, I have to travel for a week anyway, so this gives me a chance to relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2013 Author Share Posted August 1, 2013 Back from the Dead! 1. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIANHAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THECENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURESARE FALLING IN THIS AREA...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A CLOSEDCIRCULATION. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THENORTHWEST AND NORTH...BRINGING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND GUSTYWINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE COASTALWATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTERTHAT...THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THENORTH-NORTHEAST AND BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH. THISSYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Stick a fork in it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2013 Author Share Posted August 1, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Long range radar out of Miami shows some rotation associated with the activity in the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2013 Author Share Posted August 1, 2013 Long range radar out of Miami shows some rotation associated with the activity in the Bahamas. ECMWF is on board with a weak closed cyclone in the 25-35 knot range. The problem is the low and mid-level vortexes never quite get coupled before northerly shear increases over the system by 48 hours. A weak TC in the 30-40 knot range is certainly on the table though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Long range radar out of Miami shows some rotation associated with the activity in the Bahamas. One can see rotation in the IR satellite. Almost certainly midlevel, as NHC mentioned lowering pressures but lack of a closed circulation. I could look at Bahama obs, but I don't really know the geography and my lunch break is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Congo Town, Andros Island has a SSW wind @ 10 mph. They did report a gust to 32 earlier. Pressures are running about 30.02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 AL, 91, 2013080106, 234N, 765W, 25, 1013, WVAL, 91, 2013080112, 238N, 775W, 25, 1013, WV AL, 91, 2013080118, 242N, 784W, 25, 1013, WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2013 Author Share Posted August 1, 2013 Congo Town, Andros Island has a SSW wind @ 10 mph. They did report a gust to 32 earlier. Pressures are running about 30.02. Yea it actually does have a weak closed circulation so its not just a mid-level feature. However, its fairly broad and diffuse and doesn't really qualify as a TC unless it has a tightly wound surface vortex that contains some definition. The problem is even the trigger happy higher resolution guidance (HRRR, NMM/ARW WRF) doesn't really show this changing over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 AL, 91, 2013080106, 234N, 765W, 25, 1013, WV AL, 91, 2013080112, 238N, 775W, 25, 1013, WV AL, 91, 2013080118, 242N, 784W, 25, 1013, WV storm_91.gif If that graph is to be believed, the shear looks deadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Congo Town, Andros Island has a SSW wind @ 10 mph. They did report a gust to 32 earlier. Pressures are running about 30.02. 1016.6 mb. I distrust the SI as much as anybody else, but bars/Pascals and 2 liter Coke bottles are here to stay. And, double wind speed in m/s, within a couple of % of wind speed in knots. 15 m/s darn close to 30 knots. Bookmarked http://www.srh.noaa.gov/epz/?n=wxcalc_pressureconvert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0330 PM EDT THU 01 AUGUST 2013 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2013 TCPOD NUMBER.....13-062 AMENDMENT I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. REMNANTS OF DORIAN FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72 A. 02/1800Z A. 03/0600Z B. AFXXX 0304A INVEST B. AFXXX 0404A DORAIN C. 02/1530Z C. 03/0400Z D. 27.0N 79.5W D. 28.5N 79.5W E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2130Z E. 02/0530Z TO 03/0930Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT Just for kicks... If this somehow managed to get into the Gulf with a closed circulation and light wind shear,91L could definitely spin up. That's highly unlikely though. 48 hour SST forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Just for kicks... If this somehow managed to get into the Gulf with a closed circulation and light wind shear,91L could definitely spin up. That's highly unlikely though. 48 hour SST forecast SHIPS, using BAMM track into Gulf, destroys Zombie Dorian with shear in about three days. Miami to Hatteras or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 2, 2013 Author Share Posted August 2, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 LLC moving S to stack with the MLC? Sfc. obs on the coast clearly indicated a closed low, although it's weight (or lack thereof) in the pressure field is very poor, 1015mb at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 LLC moving S to stack with the MLC? Sfc. obs on the coast clearly indicated a closed low, although it's weight (or lack thereof) in the pressure field is very poor, 1015mb at best. Has a decent outflow pattern now as well, for the first time in days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 For future reference, Climatology and Persistence beat the BAM models... Also, with aircraft already cancelled, the tangerine is meaningless, the best that will happen is this will get classified as having regenerated to a TD in the post season reanalysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Continued stacking of the LLC and MLC, radar presentation looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Might need to bring up those percentages a bit It appears the MLC has strengthened and the LLC is developing rather quickly. ScreenHunter_53 Aug. 02 15.33.png tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2.gif It most certainly looks like at least a depression to me atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Long range radar out of TPBI getting interesting. There's definitely some kind of spin close to the deep convection. Might get a quick shot at a depression before the front destroys it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 A buoy near Freeport, Grand Bahama is reporting westerly winds at 24kt, while farther east on the island, southwesterly winds are being reported. Vero Beach on the eastern coast of Florida is reporting northeasterly winds. Will the NHC pull the trigger? The system is firing deep and organized convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 I think shear will get very hostile very quickly, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a naked swirl before it gets absorbed by the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 000 ABNT20 KNHC 022341 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF DORIAN...IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE... 50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. && FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 3, 2013 Share Posted August 3, 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 AM EDT SAT AUG 3 2013FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED SURFACE WIND DATA INDICATE THE AREA OF LOWPRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 70 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINEDAND IS PRODUCING WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS TO THEEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA FURTHERINDICATE THAT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLYBECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THISACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IFTHIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES COULD BERE-INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES SLOWLYNORTHWARD. DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING LOCATED ON THE EASTSIDE OF THE LOW...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD NOT BEREQUIRED FOR THE BAHAMAS OR ANY PART THE UNITED STATES COASTLINE.THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TOAFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDAPENINSULA...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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