August 2013 forecast contest -- temperatures

[Isotherm]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

-1.5        -1.9       -1.0           -2.3      -0.5      +1.2

[Roger Smith]

August forecasts

 

 

FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH

 

Stebo __________________________+2.2 _ +1.7 _ +1.0 ___ --1.7 _ +1.8 _ +0.5

free_man ___ ( -6%) _____________ +2.0 _ +1.4 _ +0.3 ___ --1.1 _ +0.8 _ +0.2

Apache Trout ___________________ +1.8 _ +1.6 _ +1.2 ___  +1.1 _  +1.1 _ +0.6
Mike Ventrice ___________________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 ___ +0.5 _ --1.0 _ +0.5
andyhb ________________________ +1.1 _  +1.3 _ +0.8 ___ --0.3 _ +1.2 _ +0.4

goobagooba ____________________ +1.0 _  +1.5 _ +1.9 ___  0.0 _  +1.0 _  +0.5

MN_Transplant __________________ +0.9 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 ____ --0.2 _ --0.7 __ 0.0

Inudaw ________________________ +0.8 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___ --0.5 _ +1.1 _ +0.8

intense blizzard 2014 _____________ +0.8 _ +0.9 _ +0.4 ___ +1.9 _ --0.9 _ +1.1

winter wx luvr __________________ + 0.7 _ +2.1 _ +2.7 ___ +2.4 _ --1.8 _ --1.5

Sacrus ____(-2%) _______________ +0.7 _ +1.1 _ +1.3 ___ --1.9 _ --0.4 _ +1.0

WhiteoutMD ___________________  +0.7__ +0.2 __ 0.0 ___ --0.5 _ +0.9 _ +0.7

Tenman Johnson ________________ +0.5 _ --0.2 _ --0.6 ___  --0.6 _ +1.5 _ +1.0

Chicago Wx ____________________ +0.2 _ +0.3 __ 0.0 ___ --1.0 _ --0.5 _ --0.5

bkviking _______________________ +0.2 _ --0.6 _ --1.1 ___ --0.3 _ +0.6 _ +1.2
blazess556 _____________________ +0.1 _ +0.4 _ +0.6 ___ --2.5 _ --1.2 _ +0.5
hudsonvalley21 __________________ +0.1 _ +0.2 _ +0.3 ___ --0.1 _ --0.4 _ --0.3

 

Consensus ______________________ +0.1 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ --0.6 _ --0.5 _ +0.6

 

Tom __________________________ +0.1 _ +0.2 _ --0.1 ___ --0.7 _ +0.8 _ +0.5

donsutherland.1 _________________ +0.1 _ --0.2 _ --0.5 ___ --0.3 _ +0.5 _ +1.0

Wxhype _______________________ +0.1 _ --1.0 _ --0.8 ___  --3.1 _ --2.4 _ +3.1 
Ellinwood _______________________ 0.0 __ +0.3 _ +0.5 ___ --2.7 _ --1.4 _ +0.7

 

Normal _________________________ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ____ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0

 

Mallow _________________________ --0.2 _ --1.0 _ --0.9 ___ --1.8 __ 0.0 _ +0.8
Roger Smith ____________________ --0.4 _ --0.3 __ 0.0 ____ --1.0 _ --1.3 _ --0.1

skierinvermont ___________________ --0.5 _ -0.5 _ +1.0 ___ --0.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.0

unclew _________________________  --0.8 _ --0.3 _ --1.0 ___ --0.5 _ --1.0 _ +0.7

Midlo_Snow_Maker _______________ --0.9 _  --1.0 _ --0.9 ___ --2.1 _ --2.2 _ +1.1

SD _____( -6%) _________________ --1.0 _ --0.5 _ --1.0 ___ --0.5 _ +0.5 _ +1.5 

Metalicwx366 ___________________ --1.2 _ --0.9 _ --1.4 ___ --2.5 _ --1.2 _ +1.2

DerekZ ___( -5%) _______________ --1.2 _  --1.5 _ --1.6 ___ +1.8 _ --1.4 _ +0.6

Chicago Storm __________________ --1.3 _ --0.7 _ --0.5 ___ --1.7 _ --1.7 _ +0.3

Isotherm _______________________ --1.5 _ --1.9 _ --1.0 ___ --2.3 _ --0.5 _ +1.2
wxdude64 ______________________ --1.6 _  --1.5 _ --0.7 ___ --3.0 _ --1.6 _ --1.1

Rodney S ______________________ --2.0 _ --1.5 _ --0.5 ____ --3.2 _ --1.6 _ --2.4
ohleary ___ (-4%) _______________ --1.9 _ --2.3 _ --2.5 ____ --3.5 _ --1.1 _ +2.2
 

34 forecasts so far, consensus is the median (average of 17th and 18th ranked forecasts, not incl normal)

[SACRUS]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH
0.7__ +1.1 __ +1.3 ____ -1.9 __ -0.4 __ +1.0

 

[ohleary]

Late!

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH
-1.9__ -2.3 __ -2.5 ____ -3.5 __ -1.1 __ +2.2

[DerekZ]

DCA.......NYC.......BOS........ORD.......ATL.......IAH
-1.2......-1.5........-1.6........+1.8.......-1.4......+0.6

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

-1.0      -0.5       -1.0           -0.5       0.5       1.5

[free_man]

DCA: +2.0
NYC: +1.4
BOS: +.3
ORD: -1.1
ATL: +.8
IAH: +.2

[Roger Smith]

After six days it was ...

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

 

--3.8 _ --3.5 _ --1.3 ____ --2.7 _ --0.2 _ +2.5

 

no change in seasonal max which remain

 

97 ___ 98 ___ 99 ____ 96 ___ 92 ___ 107

 

as I'm taking a semi-vacation for much of August the updates may be more like weekly than four-day intervals, but will pick up the pace after the 20th.

[wxdude64]

After day eight

DCA____NYC____BOS________ORD____ATL____IAH

 

-2.6        -2.8        -1.4               -1.6         -0.4       +2.9

[Roger Smith]

After ten days ...

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

 

--1.4 _ --1.9 _ --0.8 ____ --1.6 _ +0.1 _ +2.5

[wxdude64]

After day twelve -

 

DCA___NYC___BOS______ORD___ATL___IAH

 

-0.7     -1.8      -0.6              -1.4    +0.2     +2.2

[Roger Smith]

After 15 days with DCA and BOS estimated due to lack of updates ...

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

 

--1.5e _ --2.7 _ --1.2e ____ --2.7 _ --0.7 _ +2.0

 

These will mostly drift further down then stabilize (later they may drift back to current values) for several days to a week ahead (although ATL dropping faster at first to perhaps -2.5); however, IAH is projected to remain very warm and in the same range. At 1 p.m. ATL was only 66 F today with low cloud and an east wind. If there is an end of month heat wave, normal could have an impersonal best.

 

[Roger Smith]

After 18 days ...

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

 

--2.4 _ --2.6 _ --1.2 ____ --3.0 _ --2.7 _ +1.2

 

(edit, 20th ... these did not change much after 19 days but looking at the state forecasts for next seven days, all the negatives should be eroded away to tenths of degrees and IAH could drift down closer to zero also ... although on the current forecasts it would be difficult for ATL to rise much above --1.0 ...  the end result may be a big win for Normal who at least is consistent. I am personally in lock-step with Normal and would like to see him/her/it do well this one time. So would a few others, I see from the table.)

[Roger Smith]

After 20 days ...

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

 

--2.5 _ --2.3 _ --0.7 ____ --2.5 _ --2.7 _ +0.8

[Roger Smith]

Provisional to final scoring -- August

 

Blend of current values and NWS forecasts to 31st give these approximate finishing values and scores based on forecasts. The table retains the forecasts, scores are the second line under your name. Penalties which are all going to be small anyway are not yet incorporated except for totals. These are the raw scores. Revisions will continue to final stages then the table will be reorganized by ranking.

 

Log of adjustments ... 23rd 0200, added 0.5 to all but ATL. Max possible shift 50 pts but many had balancing shifts.

24th 1300h, dropped DCA 0.3 and NYC 0.2 which could change scores by max of 10 in total, all others maintained.

25th 1200h, dropped ATL 0.5 which has reduced most scores by 10 (a few scores improved).

26th 1230h, dropped all six stations by 0.2, max shift in scoring 24 pts but results more varied, not much overall change.

27th 1230h, all but IAH would drop 0.1 from current NWS forecasts but I will hold the table until tomorrow's update as these changes are within margin of error. IAH about to get a boost and could finish closer to +1.0. Check back on Wed 28th for any scoring updates.

28th, 1015h, forecasts would suggest slight drops of about 0.2 for DCA, NYC, BOS, will hold for today and make one final correction around 29th before final numbers posted on September 1st.

29th 1330h, DCA and BOS dropped 0.3, maximum point shift 12, actual shifts vary. There may be one more adjustment before final scoring on Sunday 1st.

31st 1200h ORD adjusted up by 0.2, other stations held at previous values. Scores can change by 4 pts either way. Next adjustment will be the final values and scoring report.

 

Sept 1 0400 to 1200 -- Certified final values are underlined. Scores in these columns are final. See post 48 for scoring table in the usual format. (as of 1200h this is now a final table of scores, see post 48 for same in usual format with penalties).

 

 

FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH

 

actual anomalies _______________ --1.0 _ --0.6 __ +0.0 __ +0.6 _ --1.9__ +0.7 ____ CL,EX __ TOT

 

Stebo __________________________+2.2 _ +1.7 _ +1.0 ___ --1.7 _ +1.8 _ +0.5

_______________________________  36 ___ 54 ___ 80 ____ 54 ___ 26 ____ 96 __ 170,176 _ 346

free_man ___ ( -6%) _____________ +2.0 _ +1.4 _ +0.3 ___ --1.1 _ +0.8 _ +0.2

_______________________________ 40 ___ 60 ___ 94 ____ 66 ___ 46 ____ 90 __ 194,202 _ 396 (371)

Apache Trout ___________________ +1.8 _ +1.6 _ +1.2 ___ +1.1 _ +1.1 _ +0.6

_______________________________ 44 ___ 56 ___ 76 ____ 90 ___ 40 ____ 98 __ 176,228 _ 404

Mike Ventrice ___________________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 ___ +0.5 _ --1.0 _ +0.5
_______________________________ 50 ___ 48 ___ 56 ____ 98 ___ 82 ____ 96 __ 154,276 _ 430

andyhb ________________________ +1.1 _ +1.3 _ +0.8 ___ --0.3 _ +1.2 _ +0.4

_______________________________ 58 ___ 62 ___ 84 ____ 82 ___ 38 ___ 94 __ 204,214 _ 418

goobagooba ____________________ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.9 ___ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5

_______________________________ 60 ___ 58 ___ 62 ____ 88 ___ 42 ____ 96 __ 180,226 _ 406

MN_Transplant __________________ +0.9 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 ___ --0.2 _ --0.7 __ 0.0

_______________________________ 62 ___ 78 ___ 100 ___ 84 ___ 76 ____ 86 __ 240,246 _ 486

Inudaw ________________________ +0.8 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___ --0.5 _ +1.1 _ +0.8

_______________________________ 64 ___ 64 ___ 72 ____ 78 ___ 40 ____ 98 __ 200,216 _ 416

intense blizzard 2014 _____________ +0.8 _ +0.9 _ +0.4 ___ +1.9 _ --0.9 _ +1.1

_______________________________ 64 ___ 70 ___ 92 ____ 74 ___ 80 ____ 92 __ 226,246 _ 472

winter wx luvr __________________ +0.7 _ +2.1 _ +2.7 ___ +2.4 _ --1.8 _ --1.5

_______________________________ 66 ___ 46 ___ 46 ____ 64 ___ 98 ___  56 __ 158,218 _ 376

Sacrus ____(-2%) _______________ +0.7 _ +1.1 _ +1.3 ___ --1.9 _ --0.4 _ +1.0

_______________________________ 66 ___ 66 ___ 74 ____ 50 ___ 70 ____ 94 __ 206,214 _ 420 (412)

WhiteoutMD ___________________ +0.7__ +0.2 __ 0.0 ___ --0.5 _ +0.9 _ +0.7

_______________________________ 66 ___ 84 __ 100 ____ 78 ___ 44 ___ 100 __ 250,222 _ 472

Tenman Johnson ________________ +0.5 _ --0.2 _ --0.6 ___ --0.6 _ +1.5 _ +1.0

_______________________________ 70 ____ 92 ___ 88 ____ 76 ___ 32 ___ 94 __ 250,202 _ 452

Chicago Wx ____________________ +0.2 _ +0.3 __ 0.0 ___ --1.0 _ --0.5 _ --0.5

_______________________________ 76 ___ 82 __ 100 ____ 68 ___ 72 ____ 76 __ 258,216 _ 474

bkviking _______________________ +0.2 _ --0.6 _ --1.1 ___ --0.3 _ +0.6 _ +1.2

_______________________________ 76 __ 100  __ 78 ____ 82 ___ 50 ____ 90 __ 254,222 _ 476

blazess556 _____________________ +0.1 _ +0.4 _ +0.6 ___ --2.5 _ --1.2 _ +0.5
_______________________________ 78 ___ 80 ___ 88 ____ 38 ___ 86 ____ 96 __ 246,220 _ 466

hudsonvalley21 __________________ +0.1 _ +0.2 _ +0.3 ___ --0.1 _ --0.4 _ --0.3

_______________________________ 78 ___ 84 ___ 94 ____ 86 ___ 70 ____ 80 __ 256,236 _ 492

 

Consensus ______________________ +0.1 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ --0.6 _ --0.5 _ +0.6

_______________________________ 78 ___ 88 __ 100 ____ 76 ___ 72 ____ 98 __ 266,246 _ 512

 

Tom __________________________ +0.1 _ +0.2 _ --0.1 ___ --0.7 _ +0.8 _ +0.5

_______________________________ 78 ___ 84 ___ 98 ____ 74 ___ 46 ____ 96 __ 260,216 _ 476

donsutherland.1 _________________ +0.1 _ --0.2 _ --0.5 ___ --0.3 _ +0.5 _ +1.0

_______________________________ 78 ____ 92 ___ 90 ____ 82 ___ 52 ___ 94 __ 260,228 _ 488

Wxhype _______________________ +0.1 _ --1.0 _ --0.8 ___ --3.1 _ --2.4 _ +3.1

_______________________________ 78 ___ 92 ___ 84 ____ 26 ___ 90 ____ 52 __ 254,168 _ 422

Ellinwood _______________________ 0.0 __ +0.3 _ +0.5 ___ --2.7 _ --1.4 _ +0.7

_______________________________ 80 ___ 82 ___ 90 ____ 34 ___ 90 ___ 100 __ 252,224 _ 476

 

Normal _________________________ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ____ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0

_______________________________ 80 ___ 88 ____ 100 ____ 88 ___ 62 ____ 86 __ 268,236 _ 504

 

Mallow _________________________ --0.2 _ --1.0 _ --0.9 ___ --1.8 __ 0.0 _ +0.8

_______________________________ 84 ____ 92 ___ 82 _____ 52 ___ 62 ___ 98 __ 258,212 _ 470

Roger Smith ____________________ --0.4 _ --0.3 __ 0.0 ____ --1.0 _ --1.3 _ --0.1

_______________________________ 88 ___ 94 ___ 100 ____ 68 ____ 88 ___ 84 __ 282,240 _ 522

skierinvermont __________________ --0.5 _ --0.5 _ +1.0 ___ --0.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.0

_______________________________ 90 ___ 98 ___ 80 ____ 78 ____ 62 ___ 94 __ 268,234 _ 502

unclew _________________________ --0.8 _ --0.3 _ --1.0 ___ --0.5 _ --1.0 _ +0.7

_______________________________ 96 ___ 94 ___ 80 ____ 78 ___ 82 ___ 100 __ 270,260 _ 530

Midlo_Snow_Maker _______________ --0.9 _ --1.0 _ --0.9 ___ --2.1 _ --2.2 _ +1.1

_______________________________ 98 ___ 92 ___ 82 ____ 34 ___ 94 ____ 92 __ 272,220 _ 492

SD _____( -6%) _________________ --1.0 _ --0.5 _ --1.0 ___ --0.5 _ +0.5 _ +1.5

______________________________ 100 ___ 98 ___ 80 ____ 78 ___ 52 ____ 84 __ 278,214 _ 492 (462)

Metalicwx366 ___________________ --1.2 _ --0.9 _ --1.4 ___ --2.5 _ --1.2 _ +1.2

_______________________________ 96 ___ 94 ___ 72 ____ 38 ___ 86 ____ 90 __ 262,214 _ 476

DerekZ ___( -5%) _______________ --1.2 _ --1.5 _ --1.6 ___ +1.8 _ --1.4 _ +0.6

_______________________________ 96 ___ 82 ___ 68 ____ 76 ___ 90 ____ 98 __ 246,264 _ 510 (484)

Chicago Storm __________________ --1.3 _ --0.7 _ --0.5 ___ --1.7 _ --1.7 _ +0.3

_______________________________ 94 ___ 98 ___ 90 ____ 54 ___ 96 ____ 92 __ 282,242 _ 524

Isotherm _______________________ --1.5 _ --1.9 _ --1.0 ___ --2.3 _ --0.5 _ +1.2

_______________________________ 90 ___ 74 ___ 80 ____ 42 ___ 72 ____ 90 __ 244,204 _ 448

wxdude64 ______________________ --1.6 _ --1.5 _ --0.7 ___ --3.0 _ --1.6 _ --1.1

_______________________________ 88 ___ 82 ___ 86 ____ 28 ___ 94 ____ 64 __ 256,186 _ 442

ohleary ___ (-4%) _______________ --1.9 _ --2.3 _ --2.5 ____ --3.5 _ --1.1 _ +2.2

_______________________________ 82 ___ 66 ___ 50 ____ 18 ___ 84 ____ 70 __ 198,172 _ 370 (355)

Rodney S ______________________ --2.0 _ --1.5 _ --0.5 ____ --3.2 _ --1.6 _ --2.4

_______________________________ 80 ___ 82 ___ 90 ____ 24 ___ 94 ____ 38  __ 252,156 _ 408

 

(comments are edited whenever scores are adjusted) ...

 

(22nd) Would caution that these estimates are only within 40-50 points of possible outcomes and are based on assumptions that next week to nine days will not be exceptionally hot but a few degrees above normal in most locations. You can mentally adjust your score from your own different assumptions and meanwhile this table will be adjusted any day that I adjust the provisionals now to 31st. Then the table will be redone in order. Can't be all that accurate given the projected leader.  (edit 23rd) now there's a tie with Skierinvermont but Consensus has edged ahead of all.) ... see a log of changes in anomaly projections near the top of this table. I have been somewhat conservative on the heat next 5-6 days, high scores could begin to shift up the table to favour those near +1.0 in the eastern zone, if the heat wave maxes out.

 

(edit 24th) as the latest forecasts for northeast U.S. appear somewhat closer to normal, I have dropped DCA and NYC estimates as shown in the log, and this has basically dropped most of the top half of the field (table-wise) ten points while adding the same to the coldies, but some like myself near the forecast range have stayed within 2 points. This change has seen Skierinvermont edge ahead and the two of us have a bit of a cushion on Consensus now, with Unclew moving ahead also. Did not see enough shift in the other four stations to adjust them and it seems about even money which way they could drift towards the end in each case. ATL could stay colder than projected quite possibly but that will tend to drop almost all scores.

 

(edit 25th) have dropped ATL by half a degree as forecasts have slumped a bit today, this shaved 10 points off all the higher scores but a few colder estimates benefit. Skierinvermont still ahead then yours truly and next everybody (consensus). DCA and NYC project to about -1.0 but I will keep them a bit higher for now because of the urban heat island effect which makes me suspect the NWS forecast lows which might verify further out into suburbs. BOS, ORD and IAH continue to project to near the estimates using NWS data. These provisional scores would really tighten up the annual race, with the general trend being almost a reversal of the current order.

 

(edit 26th) after cooling all six estimates by 0.2, scores have shifted only slightly with a lot of compensating shifts, but we do have a new clubhouse leader, UncleW is now marginally ahead of myself and Skierinvermont, then consensus and Chicago Storm. Normal lurks fairly close behind with Hudsonvalley21. Except for ATL, all the other stations could theoretically shift closer to normal if the core of the heat wave ends up closer to the east coast and Chicago gets a brief blast of cooler lake-cooled air mass. So normal could move up as much as any player here. Almost everyone would benefit the same number of points if ATL manages to shake off the consistent below normal signal more than forecasts are showing today.

 

(edit 28th) no update was made but if the three eastern stations dropped a further 0.2 each as indicated, then almost everyone above "normal" in the table would drop 12 points (4 for each station) and many of the higher scores below that point would either stay similar with offsetting changes, or get a boost of 12. The current leaders would tend to stay close to current projections and would be joined by Chicago Storm who would gain 12.

 

(edit 29th) Today's adjustments put Uncle W, Chicago Storm and myself into the top three with consensus, Skierinvermont and Normal close behind. DerekZ was in the same range before a slight penalty. Looks like Midlo_Snow_Maker will increase his lead over Rodney and Wxdude with MN_Transplant keeping pace among the lead pack.

 

(edit 31st) Slight changes with one station adjusted, but with regard to the previous comments, all the leaders whether human or statistical, and MNT, MSM all dropped 4 points while DerekZ picked up four and got closer to the leaders. Next report is the final scoring. ... (1st 1215) all done, transferring to post 48. 

[Roger Smith]

After 22, 23. 24, 25, 26, 27, 28 days ...

 

___ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH

 

(22) --2.0 _ --1.9 __ 0.0 ____ --1.9 _ --2.6 _ +0.7

(23) --2.1 _ --1.7 __ 0.0 ____ --1.8 _ --2.4 _ +0.8

(24) --2.1 _ --1.7 _ --0.2 ____ --1.7 _ --2.4 _ +0.8

(25) --2.2 _ --1.6 _ --0.2 ____ --1.4 _ --2.5 _ +0.8

(26) --2.1 _ --1.5 ___ 0.0 ___ --1.0 _ --2.7 _ +0.5

(27) --1.8 _ --1.2 ___ 0.0 ___ --0.4 _ --2.6 _ +0.4

(28) --1.6 _ --1.0 _ --0.1 ____ --0.1 _ --2.5 _ +0.4

 

Seasonal max remain the same but ORD tied theirs (96) on 27th.

 

The previous post contains a list of provisional scores and this will be gradually shaped into a final report by editing, meanwhile, this post will also be edited for a few days to add anomalies after 23, 24 days etc. so check back, there may not be new posts but there will be new information. 

[Roger Smith]

Just felt that a new post might alert people to this countdown to end of the month and provisional scoring. After 29 and 30 days (see previous post for countdown 24th to 28th) ...

 

____ DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ______ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH

 

(29) --1.4 _ --0.9 _ --0.3 _______ +0.1 __ --2.3 __ +0.5

(30) --1.2 _ --0.7 _ --0.2 _______ +0.5 __ --2.1 __ +0.6

 

Two posts back, you'll find the provisional scoring based on projection of final values after today and tomorrow. All stations look to pick up about 0.3 and my estimates are close enough to that for the current provisional scoring to stand. Final scoring will appear here shortly after final values are posted on Sunday morning.

 

ATL tied their seasonal high of 92 yesterday. Chicago are flirting with theirs (96) today and ATL could eventually break 92 which must be one of the lowest annual maxima on record there, I would imagine.

 

Looks like the rest are probably done for 2013 at 97 (DCA) 98 (NYC) 99 (BOS) and 107 (IAH). The bonus question runs to end of the year basically but will be declared at end of September with revision if there's some oddball October high (shades of 1971 when I think a few places in the Great Lakes region had an annual high on Oct 1 or 2).

 

The September thread is open and awaits your entry.

[Roger Smith]

August scores

 

 

 

FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __________ ORD _ ATL _ IAH

 

Actual anomalies _____________ --1.0 _ --0.6 __ 0.0 ____CL ___ +0.6 _ --1.9 _ +0.7 __ EX ____ TOT

 

unclew _______________________ 96 ___ 94 ___ 80 __ 270 ___ 78 ___ 82 __ 100 __ 260 ____ 530

Chicago Storm _________________ 94 ___ 98 ___ 90 __ 282 ___ 54 ___ 96 ___ 92 __ 242 ____ 524

Roger Smith ___________________ 88 ___ 94 __ 100 __ 282 ___ 68 ___ 88 ___ 84 __ 238 ____ 522

 

Consensus ____________________ 78 ___ 88 __ 100 __ 266 ___ 76 ___ 72 ___ 98 __ 246 ____ 512

 

Normal _______________________ 80 ___ 88 __ 100 __ 268 ___ 88 ___ 62 ___ 86 __ 236 ____ 504

 

skierinvermont _________________ 90 ___ 98 ___ 80 __ 268 ___ 78 ___ 62 ___ 94 __ 234 ____ 502

Midlo_Snow_Maker _____________ 98 ___ 92 ___ 82 __ 272 ____ 34 ___ 94 ___ 92 __ 220 ____ 492

hudsonvalley21 ________________ 78 ___ 84 ___ 94 __ 256 ____ 86 ___ 70 ___ 80 __ 236 ____ 492

donsutherland.1 ________________ 78 ___ 92 ___ 90 __ 260 ____ 82 ___ 52 ___ 94 __ 228 ____ 488

MN_Transplant _________________ 62 ___ 78 __ 100 __ 240 ____ 84 ___ 76 ___ 86 __ 246 ____ 486

DerekZ _______________________ 96 ___ 82 ___ 68 __ 246 ____ 76 ___ 90 ___ 98 __ 264 _ 510

_________ ( -5%)_______________91 ___ 78 ___ 65 __ 234 ____ 72 ___ 85 ___ 93 __ 250 ____ 484

 

Metalicwx366 __________________ 96 ___ 94 ___ 72 __ 262 ____ 38 ___ 86 ___ 90 __ 214 ____ 476

bkviking ______________________ 76 __ 100 ___ 78 __ 254 ____ 82 ___ 50 ___ 90 __ 222 ____ 476

Ellinwood _____________________ 80 ___ 82 ___ 90 __ 252 ____ 34 ___ 90 __ 100 __ 224 ____ 476

Tom _________________________ 78 ___ 84 ___ 98 __ 260 ____ 74 ___ 46 ___ 96 __ 216 ____ 476

Chicago Wx ___________________ 76 ___ 82 __ 100 __ 258 ____ 68 ___ 72 ___ 76 __ 216 ____ 474

intense blizzard 2014 ____________ 64 ___ 70 ___ 92 __ 226 ____ 74 ___ 80 ___ 92 __ 246 ____ 472

WhiteoutMD ___________________ 66 ___ 84 __ 100 __ 250 ___ 78 ___ 44 __ 100 __ 222 ____ 472

 

Mallow _______________________ 84 ___ 92 ___ 82 __ 258 ____ 52 ___ 62 ___ 98 __ 212 ____ 470

blazess556 ____________________ 78 ___ 80 ___ 88 __ 246 ____ 38 ___ 86 ___ 96 __ 220 ____ 466

SD _________________________ 100 ____ 98 ___ 80 __ 278 ____ 78 ___ 52 ___ 84 __ 214 _ 492

________ ( -6%) _______________94 ____ 92 ___ 75 __ 261 ____ 73 ___ 49 ___ 79 __ 201 ____ 462

Tenman Johnson _______________ 70 ___ 92 ___ 88 __ 250 ____ 76 ___ 32 ___ 94 __ 202 ____ 452

Isotherm _____________________ 90 ___ 74 ___ 80 __ 244 _____ 42 ___ 72 ___ 90 __ 204 ____ 448

wxdude64 ____________________ 88 ___ 82 ___ 86 __ 256 _____ 28 ___ 94 ___ 64 __ 186 ____ 442

Mike Ventrice __________________ 50 ___ 48 ___ 56 __ 154 ____ 98 ___ 82 ___ 96 __ 276 ____ 430

Wxhype ______________________ 78 ___ 92 ___ 84 __ 254 _____ 26 ___ 90 ___ 52 __ 168 ____ 422

 

andyhb _______________________ 58 ___ 62 ___ 84 __ 204 ____ 82 ___ 38 ___ 94 __ 214 ____ 418

Inudaw _______________________ 64 ___ 64 ___ 72 __ 200 ____ 78 ___ 40 ___ 98 __ 216 ____ 416

Sacrus ________________________ 66 ___ 66 ___ 74 __ 206 ____ 50 ___ 70 ___ 94 __ 214 _ 420

__________ ( -2%) _____________ 65 ___ 65 ___ 73 __ 203 ____ 49 ___ 69 ___ 92 __ 210 _____ 413

Rodney S _____________________ 80 ___ 82 ___ 90 __ 252 ____ 24 ___ 94 ___ 38 __ 156 ____ 408

goobagooba ___________________ 60 ___ 58 ___ 62 __ 180 ____ 88 ___ 42 ___ 96 __ 226 ____ 406

 

Apache Trout __________________ 44 ___ 56 ___ 76 __ 176 ____ 90 ___ 40 ___ 98 __ 228 ____ 404

winter wx luvr _________________ 66 ___ 46 ___ 46 __ 158 ____ 64 ___ 98 ___ 56 __ 218 ____ 376

free_man _____________________ 40 ___ 60 ___ 94 __ 194 ____ 66 ___ 46 ___ 90 __ 202 _ 396

____________  ( -6%) __________ 38 ___ 56 ___ 88 __ 180 ____ 62 ___ 43 ___ 85 __ 190 _____370

ohleary ________ ______________ 82 ___ 66 ___ 50 __ 198 ____ 18 ___ 84 ___ 70 __ 172 _ 370

__________(-4%)______________ 79 ___ 63 ___ 48 __ 190 ____ 17 ___ 81 ___ 67 __ 165 ____ 355

Stebo ________________________ 36 ___ 54 ___ 80 __ 170 ____ 54 ___ 26 ___ 96 __ 176 ____ 346

 

 

Congrats to UncleW for winning August, and Chicago Storm for 2nd place ... annual update to follow

[Roger Smith]

The lead changes yet again, and the chase pack tightens up  ... 

 

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< UPDATED ANNUAL SCORING >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

____________________________ "Classic" _______________ "Expanded" _____________


Forecaster ............ ........... DCA ... NYC ... BOS ... (.C.) ... ORD ... ATL ... IAH ... (.E.) .... Total Score
________________________________________________________________________________
....Annual (cum) values ......... +0.7 .. +0.3 .. +1.2 ........ ... --0.5 .. --0.7 .. +0.1 ...................... Best score awards
__________________________________________________________________________________(for months)

01 MIDLO SNOW MAKER .... 636 .. 580 .. 634 .... 1850 ... ... 455 .. 518 .. 674 .... 1647 ..... 3497 _DCA+BOS,NYC,IAH++,EX

02 RODNEY S .....................644 .. 578 .. 646 ... 1868 ... .. 437 .. 560 ... 558 .... 1555 ..... 3423 _ CL+NYC,ORD,ATL+IAH

03 DONSUTHERLAND1 ....... 558 .. 576 .. 644 .... 1778 ... ... 489 .. 474 .. 602 .... 1565 ...... 3343 _____ BOS,IAH

04 WXDUDE64 ................... 600 .. 582 .. 586 ..... 1768 ... ... 495 .. 472 .. 550 .... 1517 ...... 3285 _____ CL,NYC,IAH,EX,3

 

(05) Consensus .................. 592 .. 578 .. 658 .... 1828 ... .... 419 .. 407 ... 582 .... 1408 ..... 3236_____ DCA,NYC,BOS++

 

 

05 MALLOW ....................... 586 .. 596 .. 632 .... 1814 ... ... 388 .. 440 .. 582 ..... 1410 ..... 3224 _ NYC,ORD+,ATL,IAH, 1,7

06 MN TRANSPLANT ........... 558 .. 614 .. 602 .... 1774 ... ... 407 .. 477 .. 528 .... 1412 ..... 3186 _____ NYC,BOS

07 SKIERINVERMONT ......... 595 .. 602 .. 617 .... 1814 ... ... 460 .. 416 .. 468 .... 1344 ..... 3158 ______ IAH

08 SACRUS ........................ 551 .. 575 .. 633 .... 1759 ... ... 441 .. 406 ... 546 .... 1393 ..... 3152 ____ BOS+ORD, 4

 

(09) Normal ....................... 510 .. 564 .. 578 .... 1652 ... ... 498 .. 450 .. 538 .... 1486 ..... 3138 __NYC,BOS,ATL+ IAH

 

09 SD ................................ 580 .. 596 .. 591 .... 1767 ... ... 506 .. 371 .. 491 .... 1368 ..... 3135 __ DCA,NYC,ORD; EX

10 BKVIKING ..................... 540 .. 542 .. 628 .... 1710 ... ... 512 .. 374 .. 530 .... 1416 ..... 3126 ___ DCA

 

11 BLAZESS556 ................. 561 .. 550 .. 640 .... 1751 ... ... 433 .. 403 .. 512 .... 1348 .... 3099

12 UNCLE W ....................... 506 .. 538 .. 540 .... 1584 ... .. 431 .. 476 .. 570 .... 1477 ..... 3061 ___ ATL, IAH, 8

13 ELLINWOOD .................. 558 .. 528 .. 610 .... 1696 ... ... 373 .. 443 .. 534 .... 1350 .... 3046 ____ DCA,IAH

14 CHICAGO WX ................. 542 .. 536 .. 610 .... 1688 ... ... 417 .. 363 .. 518 .... 1298 .... 2986 __ CL,DCA,BOS,ORD 

 

15 INUDAW ........................ 546 .. 540 .. 656 .... 1742 ... ... 407 .. 273 .. 488 .... 1168 ..... 2910

16 STEBO .......................... 450 .. 502 .. 594 ..... 1546 ... ... 452 .. 356 .. 490 .... 1298 ..... 2844 _____ DCA,BOS; CL

17 TOM .............................. 454 .. 496 .. 558 .... 1508 ... ... 469 .. 350 .. 490 .... 1309 ..... 2817

18 ISOTHERM ..................... 524 .. 454 .. 500 .... 1478 ... ... 336 .. 393 .. 594 .... 1323 ..... 2801 ____ EX,BOS,IAH 5

19 ROGER SMITH ................ 492 .. 448 .. 518 .... 1458 ... ... 423 .. 420 .. 468 .... 1311 ..... 2769 NYC,BOS+ORD,ATL,IAH,CL,EX,6

20 GOOBAGOOBA ............... 505 .. 462 .. 483 .... 1450 ... ... 461 .. 292 .. 524 .... 1277 ..... 2727 ______ DCA

 

21 CHICAGO STORM ........... 508 .. 499 .. 551 .... 1558 ... ... 289 .. 343 .. 462 .... 1094 ..... 2652 ___ CL

22 DEREK Z ........................ 504 .. 414 .. 437 .... 1355 ... ... 340 .. 394 .. 538 .... 1272 ..... 2627 ______ EX,ATL

23 WXHYPE ......................... 440 .. 459 .. 485 .... 1384 ... ... 342 .. 363 .. 447 .... 1152 ..... 2536__IAH,EX,DCA,ORD,NYC,BOS

24 HUDSONVALLEY21 .*1..... 477 .. 478 .. 435 .... 1390 ... ... 413 .. 331 .. 389 .... 1133 ...... 2523

25 H2OTOWN_WX*2 ............ 475 .. 444 .. 501 .... 1420 ... ... 225 .. 297 .. 356 ..... 878 ...... 2298 ______ CL, BOS+ ATL

 

26 METALICWX366*3 ........... 419 .. 379 .. 339 .... 1137 ... ... 297 .. 359 .. 308 ..... 964 ..... 2101

27 NZUCKER*4 ..................... 265 .. 320 .. 282 ..... 867 ... ... 252 .. 274 .. 298 ..... 824 ..... 1691 _____ NYC

28 ANDY HB*4 ..................... 288 .. 280 .. 286 ..... 854 ... ... 280 .. 234 .. 284 ..... 798 ..... 1652

29 OHLEARY*4 ..................... 316 .. 260 .. 250 ..... 826 .... ... 196 .. 262 .. 265 .... 723 ..... 1549

30 POTTERCOUNTYWXOBS*3..309 .. 285 .. 345 ..... 939 ... .... 93 .. 173 .. 232 ...... 498 ..... 1437

 

31 SRAIN*4 .......................... 200 .. 264 .. 320 ..... 784 ... ... 129 .. 156 .. 212 ..... 497 ..... 1281

32 FRIVOLOUSZ21*4 ............. 258 .. 225 .. 289 ..... 772 ... ... 175 .. 155 .. 159 ..... 489 ..... 1261 _____ NYC, ORD

331 I.NEED.SNOW*5 ............ 249 .. 261 .. 215 ..... 725 ... ... 192 .. 171 .. 132 .... 495 ..... 1220 ___ CL,EX,DCA,ATL,2

34 MR TORCHEY*4 .............. 242 .. 228 .. 250 ..... 720 ... ... 129 .. 149 .. 188 ..... 466 ..... 1186 _____ BOS, ATL

35 MIKE VENTRICE*6 ............ 116 .. 126 .. 130 .... 372 ... ... 164 .. 172 .. 178 ..... 514 ...... 886 _____ ORD

36 WEATHERDUDE*5 ........... 101 .. 134 .. 183 .... 418 ... .... 74 ... 98 .. 132 ..... 304 ...... 722

37 WHITEOUTMD*6 ................ 90 .. 114 .. 140 ... 344 ... ... 104 .. 46 .. 172 ..... 322 ...... 666 _____ BOS,IAH

38 CPICK79*6 ...................... 126 ... 78 .. 158 .... 362 ... ..... 99 .. 104 .. 86 ..... 289 ....... 651
39 SKISHEEP*6 ...................... 66 ... 98 .. 150 .... 314 ... ..... 79 ... 86 .. 138 ...... 303 ..... 617
40 BRAD1551*6 ..................... 74 .. 118 ..100 ..... 292 ... ..... 64 ... 68 ...162 ..... 294 ...... 586 ______ NYC

41 EDUARDO*7....................... 92 ... 88 ... 90 .... 270 .... ..... 52 ... 68 ... 92 ..... 212 ...... 482
42 INTENSE BLIZZ 2014 *7 ....  64 ... 70 ... 92 .... 226 ... .....  74 ... 80 ... 92 ..... 246 ..... 472

43 TENMAN JOHNSON *7 ....... 70 ... 92 ... 88 .... 250 ... ...... 76 ... 32 ... 94 ...... 202 ..... 452

44 QVECTORMAN*6 ... .......... 150 ... 60 ... 82 .... 292 ... ..... 52 ... 68 ... 12 ..... 132 ...... 424 _____ DCA
45 B.IRVING*7. ...................... 94 ... 70 ... 96 ..... 260 ... ..... 70 ... 74 ... 12 ..... 156 ...... 416

 

46 APACHE TROUT *7.............. 44 ... 56 ... 76 .... 176 ... ..... 90 ... 40 ... 98 ..... 228 ..... 404

47 WINTER WX LUVR *7 ......... 66 ... 46 ... 46 .... 158 ... ..... 64 ...  98 ... 56 ..... 218 ..... 376 _____ ATL

48 FREE_MAN *7 .................... 38 ... 56 ... 88 .... 180 ... ..... 62 ... 43 ... 85 ..... 190 ...... 370

49 BRIAN 5671*7 ................... 68 ... 96 ... 68 ..... 232 ... ..... 36 ... 72 ... 18 ..... 126 ...... 358
50 HOCKEYINC*7 .................... 64 ... 38 ... 68 ..... 170 ... ..... 88 ... 44 ... 28 .... 160 ...... 330

51 NYCSUBURBS*7 ................. 58 ... 84 ... 72 ..... 214 ... ..... 14 ... 32 ... 62 ..... 108 ..... 322
52 STORMITECTURE*7 ........... 29 ... 55 ... 94 ..... 178 ... ..... 02 ... 00 ... 74 ..... 076 ..... 254
53 SHADES*7 ......................... 32 ... 60 ... 46 ..... 138 ... .... 00 ... 18 ... 82 ..... 100 ...... 238

54 TSTEEL*7 .......................... 20 ... 40 ... 40 ..... 100 ... ..... 54 ... 13 ... 42 ..... 109 ..... 209
55 CANDYMANCOLUMBUSGA*7 .30 .. 28 .. 32 ...... 090 .... .... 40 ... 00 ... 60 ..... 100 ...... 190
56 69APORCUPINE*7 .............. 02 ... 00 ... 06 ..... 008 ... ..... 00 ... 12 ... 12 ..... 024 ...... 032
57 OKIE333*7...... .................. 00 ... 00 ... 10 ..... 010 ... ..... 00 ... 00 ... 00 ..... 000 ...... 010

_________________________________________

 

*n ... * followed by a number gives the number of missed months.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Nice!