powderfreak Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 But you can see from those temps how unrealistic it is for people to expect 51F crisp lows in SNE sans places like decently elevated rad spots. It really undermines the whole silly debate of whether we are in a new pattern or not because we aren't getting highs of 73 with lows of 51 in late July. Late July and early August is generally the warmest/muggiest combo part of the summer for us. So essentially we need record low temps to satisfy the requirements some seem to throw out there. A little perspective is always nice. We really don't seem to get a great chance for that type of airmass until after mid August. Usually the final 10-12 days of August has one of those nights where you "feel" autumn trying to come in. Yeah good points all-around. That 73/51 you cited was what we had yesterday and it was like -10F for up here, two counties south of Canada...so down there that translates to record territory. But yes, the a new cooler pattern doesn't mean October is coming in...which is what some have been fighting, saying it won't be a pattern change unless its weeks of dry, cold/crisp NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 lol. I do...here's a copy from my data: So you have records in the low (42) to mid 40s in late July...that sounds more what I was thinking for the country side spots away from the cities and exposed hilltops. I gotta imagine that would be similar in Litchfield/ORH Hills as well as the Berkshire valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 you can see if you loop the GFS ens mean....the ridge just stays out west nearly the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 That's interesting. I didn't know that they used 8/1 instead of 7/1 like they do for snow and heating and cooling degree days. I've seen 8/1 and 7/1 both referenced in journals, but in terms of the data NCDC puts out, it says they use August 1st as the start of the season. For most applications it doesn't matter as long as you know your data and what it means for computing an average first sub-50 date for a place like CON which has them year round versus somewhere like BDL where there is a distinct sub-50-low-free period during the climatological peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 I think of them as "hump intervals" -- basically, something comes along that triggers the decent or ascent. Back-breaker occurrences...that herald in seasonal change. I don't get the feeling that we've humped this summer yet. This is a nice heat recession, but I don't think I remember hump interval as early as July over the years. Usually it's right around the 15th of August +- 10days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Again, can't really say much but it was a combo of things that led to his demise. Brilliant mind, not so brilliant attitude/agenda. Hard to explain on here for certain reasons...could be a GTG topic though. he's a charlatan who takes advantage of people's emotions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 he's a charlatan who takes advantage of people's emotions it's a weird thing that runs rampant in weather, imo. there are red taggers on this board who do that. have never understood it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 euro looks great on wed and thu. wed maybe even a bit of an LL special downslope dandy with WNW flow, drying air and temps well into the 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 euro looks great on wed and thu. wed maybe even a bit of an LL special downslope dandy with WNW flow, drying air and temps well into the 80s. does it have rain on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 does it have rain on Friday? no. it's offshore...looks like it grazes extreme E MA with some light precip. pretty good soaker tomorrow though from NYC on NE through CT and C / W MA and points NE from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 no. it's offshore...looks like it grazes extreme E MA with some light precip. pretty good soaker tomorrow though from NYC on NE through CT and C / W MA and points NE from there tomorrow is no doubt a convective dump day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Long range? Any torches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 DC now. Feels hot and humid but certainly not upper 90s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Long range? Any torches? Nope. Our fun is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Long range? Any torches? Nope. Our fun is over. 8:7-14 will come torch big time IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 8:7-14 will come torch big time IMHO. You keeping an eye on the WAR around that time? I was looking at that but it depends on how far it retrogrades west. Humidity will be back for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 8:7-14 will come torch big time IMHO. You keeping an eye on the WAR around that time? I was looking at that but it depends on how far it retrogrades west. Humidity will be back for sure. The pattern this summer had been building followed by receding for up to 2 weeks but it tends to stay humid either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 bit of a weak sultan signal over the interior tonight into tuesday. looks more like isolated flash flood potential, but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 nice dump of rain here right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Purty day in New England. We've just hit 60 degrees up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 the meso models really blow up a lot of heavy rain / thunder late this afternoon and tonight from NJ into CT, W / C MA and NYS. think it makes sense. there's some low-level lift with the warm front lifting back through the area and can see the big theta-e ridge running back up the coast (pwats get back over 2" in a lot of spots). decent short-wave too. someone could score some pretty hefty totals. maybe just west of NE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 the meso models really blow up a lot of heavy rain / thunder late this afternoon and tonight from NJ into CT, W / C MA and NYS. think it makes sense. there's some low-level lift with the warm front lifting back through the area and can see the big theta-e ridge running back up the coast (pwats get back over 2" in a lot of spots). decent short-wave too. someone could score some pretty hefty totals. maybe just west of NE though. We usually do pretty well in these setups up here since we do so well at keeping those warm sfc frontal boundaries just to our south while still having 2.00" PWATs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 My coffee shop, with the best ice coffee anywhere with the call, lol hope it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 yep the cold front with low 70's dewpoints behind it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 yeah i never would have considered a 65F dew to be dry really but after enduring mid 70s for an eternity, it feels pretty good. i think it was jerry who was noting how quickly the body adjusts...very true. feels "comfortable" for a change. Yeah, I've been mentioning how it'll feel quite chilly once the temps and dews drop into the low 60s, after close to a month of upper 60s and low 70s for mins. We do adjust fairly quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 yeah i never would have considered a 65F dew to be dry really but after enduring mid 70s for an eternity, it feels pretty good. i think it was jerry who was noting how quickly the body adjusts...very true. feels "comfortable" for a change. Yeah, I've been mentioning how it'll feel quite chilly once the temps and dews drop into the low 60s, after close to a month of upper 60s and low 70s for mins. We do adjust fairly quickly... Not only that, here in DC with 90/70 it doesn't feel that bad after last week in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 yeah i never would have considered a 65F dew to be dry really but after enduring mid 70s for an eternity, it feels pretty good. i think it was jerry who was noting how quickly the body adjusts...very true. feels "comfortable" for a change. Yeah, I've been mentioning how it'll feel quite chilly once the temps and dews drop into the low 60s, after close to a month of upper 60s and low 70s for mins. We do adjust fairly quickly... Not only that, here in DC with 90/70 it doesn't feel that bad after last week in Boston. Actually, fukking roasting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Yeah, I've been mentioning how it'll feel quite chilly once the temps and dews drop into the low 60s, after close to a month of upper 60s and low 70s for mins. We do adjust fairly quickly... I've had a light jacket on all day at 55-60 degrees up on Mansfield...in March/April/May those temps are shorts and t-shirt, sweating. After last week it feels pretty chilly, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 I've had a light jacket on all day at 55-60 degrees up on Mansfield...in March/April/May those temps are shorts and t-shirt, sweating. After last week it feels pretty chilly, haha. lol, yeah, funny how it works that way! I guess that's how people across the country adjust to those "south Georgia" type summers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Dews are back into the 70s statewide here in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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