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Late July Pattern Change - Wx Discussion


CT Rain

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But the pattern hasn't changed?  How can that be?  lol

 

I hope our high dewpoint folks enjoyed last night and this morning.  Otherwise, there's not much to be had.

 

Provided I can get the drier air to make it into this neck of the woods early (currently 63.6/63), we could begin our COC string today as there's full-sun now.

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Was down in your hood going to and from PA on the Merrit. You can see the tree damage still from Sandy.

yeah, it's bad...they left the stuff further away from the parkway for now.   Even in my town, folks are still cutting down trees (some damaged and some folks just taking preventative measures for next time.

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yeah, it's bad...they left the stuff further away from the parkway for now.   Even in my town, folks are still cutting down trees (some damaged and some folks just taking preventative measures for next time.

 

I've seen that around me too.  Folks are cutting down perfectly healthy trees around their houses "just in case".  Now their houses bake in the sun without any natural shade.  Deciduous trees are almost perfect because they loose their leaves when you want the sun to heat your house and shade your house when you don't want it.  I'll deal with fallen branches or a tree if and when it happens.  Cutting down trees just exposes everybody else's trees making the problem worse.

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Blizz must've had a stroke this morning after reading the BOX AFD, lol. Getting a taste of winter with a suppressed storm track south of SNE as the polar vortex drops south in the long range.

But...IT IS NOT A PATTERN CHANGE!

"Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/... highlights... * temperatures at or slightly cooler than normal * showers likely late Thursday into Friday * next weekend is trending cooler but mainly dry Synoptic overview... Good model agreement among the ecens and gefs ensembles on the northern stream jet remaining amplified and suppressed across the Great Lakes and New England this period. This will result in a storm track across or south of the region...yielding an active weather pattern for the area but confining any severe weather threat and excessive heat well south and southwest of New England. This is supported by latest teleconnections with nao and ao remaining weakly negative during this forecast period. Sensible weather... Tuesday... Significant airmass change behind Monday night/S cold front with precipitable waters dipping below 1 inch and dew points falling into the u40s to l50s! Refreshing west-northwest wind to accompany the cooler/less humid airmass Tuesday...

... Thu/Fri... Next short wave and attending frontal boundary approaches the region late Thursday into Friday. Fairly amplified trough with negative tilt. All models especially the European model (ecmwf) suggest this strong forcing for ascent will induce a frontal wave and track along or south of New England. More like a cool season event than a typical Summer frontal system....

...Sat/sun... Ecens and gefs ensembles both have polar vortex moving equatorward into south-central Quebec with heights over New England dipping to minus 2 Standard deviations from climo! This will support cooler temperatures. Deterministic runs of the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are even more robust. As for precipitation...pattern suggest dry weather with storm track suppressed south of New England. However given cold air aloft can/T rule out isolated diurnal shower/thunderstorm especially higher terrain. For next week all model guidance indicating potential record cool temperatures for New England as polar vortex may continue to dig southward through Quebec. &&

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Yeah that's hard to comprehend...the one hour with like 2.5" is pretty darn impressive on its own too. That had to be catastrophic urban flooding though I can't find many pics.

 

I think that was mostly localized to the airport. I know Camden NJ had some flooding, but the true epic rains were localized.

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Blizz must've had a stroke this morning after reading the BOX AFD, lol. Getting a taste of winter with a suppressed storm track south of SNE as the polar vortex drops south in the long range.

But...IT IS NOT A PATTERN CHANGE!

 

...

 

 

So with July almost coming to a close, let's see how the much hyped dust-bowl drought of summer 2013 is going:

May...6.21"

June...8.48"

July...8.70"

Bringing us just shy of 2-feet of QPF since the terrible drought started.

 

Well, he stuck his neck out with that call.  I think he tends to think that whatever is happening is going to continue to happen.  If that were the case, the weather would never change and we'd only have "pattern" changes every 6 months (cold/hot/cold/hot...)

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Well, he stuck his neck out with that call. I think he tends to think that whatever is happening is going to continue to happen. If that were the case, the weather would never change and we'd only have "pattern" changes every 6 months (cold/hot/cold/hot...)

I feel like we seem to get locked into things for like 3-6 week periods of time...past that point, it's really hard to get a torch/cold/snowy/dry/etc pattern to last for more than 4-6 weeks without a pretty significant switch-up.

Like the dry April/early May, then 4 weeks of rain/chill, followed by 4-6 weeks of rain/humid/hot weather...now we enter a new shift for a while.

But look at a lot of even good winter patterns...like Boxing Day '10 into Feb '11 or December into January '02-03...spring of 2007 in NNE...the best parts of these patterns all seem to be like 6 week windows.

Nothing ever seems to end up being "months and months" of one pattern.

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Could be some decent storms in E CT up through Boston during the midday. A fair amount of instability is around per 12z OKX sounding with very little CIN- and radar shows a a pretty big cluster firing up in SE CT.

 

 

post-40-0-47563800-1375106252_thumb.gif

 

Thunder/rain chances quickly shut off from west to east as mid level very dry punch advects in from the southwest. You can see on the 12z IAD sounding that it is REALLY dry just off the deck. On the water vapor loop that dry punch has already made it to western CT.

 

post-40-0-98342700-1375106266_thumb.gif

post-40-0-41404600-1375106241_thumb.jpg

 

 

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I feel like we seem to get locked into things for like 3-6 week periods of time...past that point, it's really hard to get a torch/cold/snowy/dry/etc pattern to last for more than 4-6 weeks without a pretty significant switch-up.

Like the dry April/early May, then 4 weeks of rain/chill, followed by 4-6 weeks of rain/humid/hot weather...now we enter a new shift for a while.

But look at a lot of even good winter patterns...like Boxing Day '10 into Feb '11 or December into January '02-03...spring of 2007 in NNE...the best parts of these patterns all seem to be like 6 week windows.

Nothing ever seems to end up being "months and months" of one pattern.

very true...while 10-11 was an epic winter, the snows really were in a 4-5 week period with little before or after...

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Could be some decent storms in E CT up through Boston during the midday. A fair amount of instability is around per 12z OKX sounding with very little CIN- and radar shows a a pretty big cluster firing up in SE CT.

 

 

attachicon.gifOKX (1).gif

 

Thunder/rain chances quickly shut off from west to east as mid level very dry punch advects in from the southwest. You can see on the 12z IAD sounding that it is REALLY dry just off the deck. On the water vapor loop that dry punch has already made it to western CT.

 

attachicon.gifIAD.gif

attachicon.gifg13.2013210.1315_US_wv.jpg

 

I was talking about that earlier as I'm on terminals today. HRRR has a nice cluster later on. Perhaps location isn't verbatim like the model has, but all models pretty unstable...even as column dries out a bit. Cold aloft too.

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I was talking about that earlier as I'm on terminals today. HRRR has a nice cluster later on. Perhaps location isn't verbatim like the model has, but all models pretty unstable...even as column dries out a bit. Cold aloft too.

 

Yeah seems like there's a small window before it gets too dry and as the column starts cooling. Not much CIN on that OKX sounding. 

 

Good deep layer shear too - I could see a severe storm too in eastern areas.

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Yeah seems like there's a small window before it gets too dry and as the column starts cooling. Not much CIN on that OKX sounding. 

 

Good deep layer shear too - I could see a severe storm too in eastern areas.

 

Column drying out is a concern, but probably means areas further east have best shot as you said.

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I feel like we seem to get locked into things for like 3-6 week periods of time...past that point, it's really hard to get a torch/cold/snowy/dry/etc pattern to last for more than 4-6 weeks without a pretty significant switch-up.

Like the dry April/early May, then 4 weeks of rain/chill, followed by 4-6 weeks of rain/humid/hot weather...now we enter a new shift for a while.

But look at a lot of even good winter patterns...like Boxing Day '10 into Feb '11 or December into January '02-03...spring of 2007 in NNE...the best parts of these patterns all seem to be like 6 week windows.

Nothing ever seems to end up being "months and months" of one pattern.

 

I think that there are different types of patterns.  Most, like you describe, last about 4-6 weeks.  Then there are the semi-annual ones like winter 2011-2012.  It was dry and warm for a longer period than that.  Then there are annual ones that can last for a few years, like the many crappy winters we had in the '80s or like hurricane seasons which seem to favor one region over another for a few years.  We seem to be in one that favors the east coast vs. 10 years ago.  Then there are the even longer decadal patterns where we see "hot" decades.  I think the '90s were like that along with the '30s.  There's probably even longer ones that last for 100s of years like the Vikings found a thousand years ago.

 

The bottom line though is you're right and that you shouldn't expect most patterns to last more than a few weeks.

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The KWO (Kevin Weenie Oscillation) is also a semi-annular one. This tends to exist only in extremes. The +KWO runs from April-October and then violently shifts  to a -KWO from October through April. This year the +KWO has been an astounding 5-6 sigma above normal.

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