CT Rain Posted July 29, 2013 Author Share Posted July 29, 2013 Hell of a way to run a 20-40 70+ dew stretch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Hell of a way to run a 20-40 70+ dew stretch! I think Kevin's currently in his cocoon as he goes through metamorphosis into winter-mode. He's going to reemerge with nary a mention of dewpoint and his climate will suddenly be identical to ORH. Or maybe Westminster..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Hell of a way to run a 20-40 70+ dew stretch! But the pattern hasn't changed? How can that be? lol I hope our high dewpoint folks enjoyed last night and this morning. Otherwise, there's not much to be had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 I spent yesterday 55 miles south of Falmouth in the shipping lanes tuna fishing. 8 ft swells in a 25 ft boat. Catch some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 But the pattern hasn't changed? How can that be? lol I hope our high dewpoint folks enjoyed last night and this morning. Otherwise, there's not much to be had. Provided I can get the drier air to make it into this neck of the woods early (currently 63.6/63), we could begin our COC string today as there's full-sun now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Might be some shwrs/iso storms east of ORH today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Catch some? Mahi and yellowfin. The weeks of SW winds pushed tropical water within day trip distance. 74 degree blue water. Had a white marlin hit our baits but didn't take the hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 The early change of stressed trees should begin imminently. I've seen some around here. Obviously sick/dying trees, but there are some red/orange maple leaves around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 LOL, sounds like the leaves in GC are already at 50% color. I forgot by 8/1 we already begin to hear about leaves changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 LOL, sounds like the leaves in GC are already at 50% color. I forgot by 8/1 we already begin to hear about leaves changing. LOL, we did see one branch of a swamp maple turned yesterday up in the Apple Valley area of Ashfield. Most likely stress induced though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 ticking down the hrs till the front passes. currently 70/69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Was down in your hood going to and from PA on the Merrit. You can see the tree damage still from Sandy. yeah, it's bad...they left the stuff further away from the parkway for now. Even in my town, folks are still cutting down trees (some damaged and some folks just taking preventative measures for next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 yeah, it's bad...they left the stuff further away from the parkway for now. Even in my town, folks are still cutting down trees (some damaged and some folks just taking preventative measures for next time. I've seen that around me too. Folks are cutting down perfectly healthy trees around their houses "just in case". Now their houses bake in the sun without any natural shade. Deciduous trees are almost perfect because they loose their leaves when you want the sun to heat your house and shade your house when you don't want it. I'll deal with fallen branches or a tree if and when it happens. Cutting down trees just exposes everybody else's trees making the problem worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Man just saw Philly set their all-time 24 hour rain record with 8.02" yesterday. And I thought the 2" I picked up overnight was solid...8" is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Man just saw Philly set their all-time 24 hour rain record with 8.02" yesterday. And I thought the 2" I picked up overnight was solid...8" is crazy. Very localized too. Naples FL had a similar occurence as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Blizz must've had a stroke this morning after reading the BOX AFD, lol. Getting a taste of winter with a suppressed storm track south of SNE as the polar vortex drops south in the long range. But...IT IS NOT A PATTERN CHANGE! "Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/... highlights... * temperatures at or slightly cooler than normal * showers likely late Thursday into Friday * next weekend is trending cooler but mainly dry Synoptic overview... Good model agreement among the ecens and gefs ensembles on the northern stream jet remaining amplified and suppressed across the Great Lakes and New England this period. This will result in a storm track across or south of the region...yielding an active weather pattern for the area but confining any severe weather threat and excessive heat well south and southwest of New England. This is supported by latest teleconnections with nao and ao remaining weakly negative during this forecast period. Sensible weather... Tuesday... Significant airmass change behind Monday night/S cold front with precipitable waters dipping below 1 inch and dew points falling into the u40s to l50s! Refreshing west-northwest wind to accompany the cooler/less humid airmass Tuesday... ... Thu/Fri... Next short wave and attending frontal boundary approaches the region late Thursday into Friday. Fairly amplified trough with negative tilt. All models especially the European model (ecmwf) suggest this strong forcing for ascent will induce a frontal wave and track along or south of New England. More like a cool season event than a typical Summer frontal system.... ...Sat/sun... Ecens and gefs ensembles both have polar vortex moving equatorward into south-central Quebec with heights over New England dipping to minus 2 Standard deviations from climo! This will support cooler temperatures. Deterministic runs of the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are even more robust. As for precipitation...pattern suggest dry weather with storm track suppressed south of New England. However given cold air aloft can/T rule out isolated diurnal shower/thunderstorm especially higher terrain. For next week all model guidance indicating potential record cool temperatures for New England as polar vortex may continue to dig southward through Quebec. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Man just saw Philly set their all-time 24 hour rain record with 8.02" yesterday. And I thought the 2" I picked up overnight was solid...8" is crazy. PHL had 7.38" in the 6hrly at 00z. Just nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 So with July almost coming to a close, let's see how the much hyped dust-bowl drought of summer 2013 is going: May...6.21" June...8.48" July...8.70" Bringing us just shy of 2-feet of QPF since the terrible drought started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 PHL had 7.38" in the 6hrly at 00z. Just nuts. Yeah that's hard to comprehend...the one hour with like 2.5" is pretty darn impressive on its own too. That had to be catastrophic urban flooding though I can't find many pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Yeah that's hard to comprehend...the one hour with like 2.5" is pretty darn impressive on its own too. That had to be catastrophic urban flooding though I can't find many pics. I think that was mostly localized to the airport. I know Camden NJ had some flooding, but the true epic rains were localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Blizz must've had a stroke this morning after reading the BOX AFD, lol. Getting a taste of winter with a suppressed storm track south of SNE as the polar vortex drops south in the long range. But...IT IS NOT A PATTERN CHANGE! ... So with July almost coming to a close, let's see how the much hyped dust-bowl drought of summer 2013 is going: May...6.21" June...8.48" July...8.70" Bringing us just shy of 2-feet of QPF since the terrible drought started. Well, he stuck his neck out with that call. I think he tends to think that whatever is happening is going to continue to happen. If that were the case, the weather would never change and we'd only have "pattern" changes every 6 months (cold/hot/cold/hot...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 No doubts about this one being a pattern shift. Excited about these low dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Well, he stuck his neck out with that call. I think he tends to think that whatever is happening is going to continue to happen. If that were the case, the weather would never change and we'd only have "pattern" changes every 6 months (cold/hot/cold/hot...)I feel like we seem to get locked into things for like 3-6 week periods of time...past that point, it's really hard to get a torch/cold/snowy/dry/etc pattern to last for more than 4-6 weeks without a pretty significant switch-up.Like the dry April/early May, then 4 weeks of rain/chill, followed by 4-6 weeks of rain/humid/hot weather...now we enter a new shift for a while. But look at a lot of even good winter patterns...like Boxing Day '10 into Feb '11 or December into January '02-03...spring of 2007 in NNE...the best parts of these patterns all seem to be like 6 week windows. Nothing ever seems to end up being "months and months" of one pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 29, 2013 Author Share Posted July 29, 2013 Could be some decent storms in E CT up through Boston during the midday. A fair amount of instability is around per 12z OKX sounding with very little CIN- and radar shows a a pretty big cluster firing up in SE CT. Thunder/rain chances quickly shut off from west to east as mid level very dry punch advects in from the southwest. You can see on the 12z IAD sounding that it is REALLY dry just off the deck. On the water vapor loop that dry punch has already made it to western CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 I feel like we seem to get locked into things for like 3-6 week periods of time...past that point, it's really hard to get a torch/cold/snowy/dry/etc pattern to last for more than 4-6 weeks without a pretty significant switch-up. Like the dry April/early May, then 4 weeks of rain/chill, followed by 4-6 weeks of rain/humid/hot weather...now we enter a new shift for a while. But look at a lot of even good winter patterns...like Boxing Day '10 into Feb '11 or December into January '02-03...spring of 2007 in NNE...the best parts of these patterns all seem to be like 6 week windows. Nothing ever seems to end up being "months and months" of one pattern. very true...while 10-11 was an epic winter, the snows really were in a 4-5 week period with little before or after... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Could be some decent storms in E CT up through Boston during the midday. A fair amount of instability is around per 12z OKX sounding with very little CIN- and radar shows a a pretty big cluster firing up in SE CT. OKX (1).gif Thunder/rain chances quickly shut off from west to east as mid level very dry punch advects in from the southwest. You can see on the 12z IAD sounding that it is REALLY dry just off the deck. On the water vapor loop that dry punch has already made it to western CT. IAD.gif g13.2013210.1315_US_wv.jpg I was talking about that earlier as I'm on terminals today. HRRR has a nice cluster later on. Perhaps location isn't verbatim like the model has, but all models pretty unstable...even as column dries out a bit. Cold aloft too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 29, 2013 Author Share Posted July 29, 2013 I was talking about that earlier as I'm on terminals today. HRRR has a nice cluster later on. Perhaps location isn't verbatim like the model has, but all models pretty unstable...even as column dries out a bit. Cold aloft too. Yeah seems like there's a small window before it gets too dry and as the column starts cooling. Not much CIN on that OKX sounding. Good deep layer shear too - I could see a severe storm too in eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Yeah seems like there's a small window before it gets too dry and as the column starts cooling. Not much CIN on that OKX sounding. Good deep layer shear too - I could see a severe storm too in eastern areas. Column drying out is a concern, but probably means areas further east have best shot as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 I feel like we seem to get locked into things for like 3-6 week periods of time...past that point, it's really hard to get a torch/cold/snowy/dry/etc pattern to last for more than 4-6 weeks without a pretty significant switch-up. Like the dry April/early May, then 4 weeks of rain/chill, followed by 4-6 weeks of rain/humid/hot weather...now we enter a new shift for a while. But look at a lot of even good winter patterns...like Boxing Day '10 into Feb '11 or December into January '02-03...spring of 2007 in NNE...the best parts of these patterns all seem to be like 6 week windows. Nothing ever seems to end up being "months and months" of one pattern. I think that there are different types of patterns. Most, like you describe, last about 4-6 weeks. Then there are the semi-annual ones like winter 2011-2012. It was dry and warm for a longer period than that. Then there are annual ones that can last for a few years, like the many crappy winters we had in the '80s or like hurricane seasons which seem to favor one region over another for a few years. We seem to be in one that favors the east coast vs. 10 years ago. Then there are the even longer decadal patterns where we see "hot" decades. I think the '90s were like that along with the '30s. There's probably even longer ones that last for 100s of years like the Vikings found a thousand years ago. The bottom line though is you're right and that you shouldn't expect most patterns to last more than a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 The KWO (Kevin Weenie Oscillation) is also a semi-annular one. This tends to exist only in extremes. The +KWO runs from April-October and then violently shifts to a -KWO from October through April. This year the +KWO has been an astounding 5-6 sigma above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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