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Late July Pattern Change - Wx Discussion


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Interesting, Paul's giving mention to the cool signal in his mid range discussion... 

 

"ON SUNDAY...IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE CORRECT ALTHOUGH THERE ARE

NOW MORE DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST SPEEDS...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL FIND ITSELF WITH RELATIVELY
COOL CONDITIONS FOR EARLY AUGUST...FEELING MORE TYPICAL FOR AUTUMN
THAN SUMMER. PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES..."

 

Personally I am not sure I have confidence that the trends are correct.  Too much history of too much trough fantasy at D6+ to trust that.  I have been anally monitoring that time range in successive Euro runs, and it is repeatedly backing off as it passes from D6 into shorter lead time intervals, and it's did it again last night.  Meanwhile, it takes this/these innocuous "dents" in the geopotential medium, left behind up over Manitoba in Canada, and then literally it appears as though the model "invents" the necessary mechanics for it to settle into a rather robust negative anomaly (near -2SD at times) right into Ohio.  It's bordering on frustrating to constantly see veritable SPV over southern Ontario at D9 on every run, only off-set by accepting the fact that the operational depictions at that time frame are a fool's errand anyway.  But, sometimes that D9 thing tries to sneak into the D5 range, but even that's failed more times than not.   

 

I know from independent reading on the matter that the Euro employs correction schemes (among many other traits it has in its physical make-up).  It is my hypothesis (only) that at those time ranges whatever signals there are in the run that it had been erstwhile processing for (days 2-6) they get lost and overwhelmed by the din of chaos, and so the model sort ...runs home to mommy (so to speak).  What I mean by that is that it's correction scheme on a baser level is like a stable, low amplitude +PNAP construct to the flow, such that when the signals get lost all that is left is the correction, and viola!  Heights drop between D6 and 10 during times when any other signals are comparatively weak.  

 

It is hard to describe that in simple terms, but think of a modestly amplified ridge, statically positioned over the Rockies, and a modestly teleconnected trough situated near 80W longitude.  That's like a base-line set up, and the Euro seems to want to get to that set up at least excuse imaginable beyond about D5.5 or 6.  Obviously the proprietary nature of the ECMWF company does not allow for an open read about how they employ correction schemes, but they confirm that they use them in general.  My hypothesis is that at least a part of those schemes includes that base-line set up, and that simply put, in the absence of countering forces, it's gets exposed too often in the extended time ranges.

 

blah blah blah.

 

Man, this is a boring weather interval.  Nothing exciting at all.  That's tough for me of all people, to admit, because I am consummately encouraging people to take interest in the subtler aspects of the science playing out day-to-day during these quiescent times. But even I am feeling it a little.  Although, I am noticing the LI's are regionally down to -4 or -5, and as long as we have the trough in the area at all, perhaps we can scare up some lightning.    

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Squirrels around here have been strangely absent

Lots of owls though.

 

 

Now that you mention it, I haven't see many at all here.  I really don't pay attention to these things.  I don't think we have a single oak here, so maybe it finally dawned on them that they should move.

 

 

Weird,  my wife and I were saying the same thing just yesterday!   Very few squirrels this summer.

 

78/67  No sun here today but warm.  Just a wee bit muggy doing yard work but nothing compared to the last month.

 

I'll go out on a limb and say whatever t-storms hit W.MA today N Franklin Co. will not be a part of it.  Why break the trend. lol

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Man, like Jerry, I'm starting to feel that this summer's back has broken. It will obviously get warm and humid at some point, but the "months and months" of high dews and heat has been put to rest.

BTV's AFD is all weak trough in the long range, with another week of below normal temps.

No highs of 80F or higher in the forecast for the next 7 days....mostly 70-77 type stuff.

"Temperatures throughout the period remain near to slightly below normal with maximum temperatures in the 70s in the valleys and 60s in the high terrain...and min temperatures in the m40s-m50s. && Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/... as of 315 PM EDT Sunday...once again...excellent consistency in the extended forecast data with dry westerly flow on Wednesday along with seasonal temperatures. This pattern is short lived however as broad upper trough begins to get established over central and eastern Canada. The first in a series of shortwave troughs moves through the base of the trough and into our area Thursday/Thursday night. As was the case yesterday...going forecast has this covered well...with a chance of showers during this time period. Looking ahead to Friday and Saturday...broad upper trough remains over central and eastern Canada and cannot rule out the possibility of some showers...which going forecast has covered. In addition...looks like temperatures will be a few degrees below normal at the back end of the extended forecast."

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Weird,  my wife and I were saying the same thing just yesterday!   Very few squirrels this summer.

 

78/67  No sun here today but warm.  Just a wee bit muggy doing yard work but nothing compared to the last month.

 

I'll go out on a limb and say whatever t-storms hit W.MA today N Franklin Co. will not be a part of it.  Why break the trend. lol

 

LOL.  Was there thunder with the 3.2" that came the other night?? I missed out since I was in Denver.

 

BOX has lowered the pops again, now down to 40%.  I think yesterday at this time they were saying 70%.  I think I counted 10 drops of rain this afternoon.  At least the clouds suggest some opportunity for rain--it was mostly sunny earlier in the day.

 

73.5/67 off a high of 75.3.

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of course summer's back has been broken-we're approaching 8/1, averages begin to fall off fairly steadily as does sunset times...

It's more than that. August can be brutal despite the avg drop in temps. Dewpoints usually reach their highest potential here. I think despite the slow avg temp drop...it still looks like we'll have some good shots of cooler Canadian air moving in. I think the bigger wild card is whether it returns for a time later in the second week.

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It's more than that. August can be brutal despite the avg drop in temps. Dewpoints usually reach their highest potential here. I think despite the slow avg temp drop...it still looks like we'll have some good shots of cooler Canadian air moving in. I think the bigger wild card is whether it returns for a time later in the second week.

Agree there.  Humidity can be beastly in August...heck it's beastly here tonight.  But temps always seem to drop off a cliff here after the first week of August or so...in the meantime,  Looking forward to some drier weather tomorrow-Thurs...

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Agree there. Humidity can be beastly in August...heck it's beastly here tonight. But temps always seem to drop off a cliff here after the first week of August or so...in the meantime, Looking forward to some drier weather tomorrow-Thurs...

Was down in your hood going to and from PA on the Merrit. You can see the tree damage still from Sandy.

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It's more than that. August can be brutal despite the avg drop in temps. Dewpoints usually reach their highest potential here. I think despite the slow avg temp drop...it still looks like we'll have some good shots of cooler Canadian air moving in. I think the bigger wild card is whether it returns for a time later in the second week.

 

Will (I think it was Will) posted a table that listed the monthly distribution of heat waves that had impacted SNE over the past xxx number of years.  Essentailly, the frequency was evenly split between the months of June/July/August.  But to be sure, the averages are diminishing.

 

Philly was wild... 7.35" of rain in 4 hours:  http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KPHL.html

 

Insane!

 

 

The best read of the season from the BOX AFD today:

 

FOR NEXT WEEK ALL MODEL GUID INDICATING POTENTIAL RECORD COOL TEMPS FOR NEW ENGLAND AS POLAR VORTEX MAY CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH QUEBEC.

-- End Changed Discussion --
 
Yucky out there this morning--glad I'll get the frontal passage early.
 
64.1/63
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Will (I think it was Will) posted a table that listed the monthly distribution of heat waves that had impacted SNE over the past xxx number of years.  Essentailly, the frequency was evenly split between the months of June/July/August.  But to be sure, the averages are diminishing.

 

 

Insane!

 

 

The best read of the season from the BOX AFD today:

 

FOR NEXT WEEK ALL MODEL GUID INDICATING POTENTIAL RECORD COOL TEMPS FOR NEW ENGLAND AS POLAR VORTEX MAY CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH QUEBEC.

-- End Changed Discussion --
 
Yucky out there this morning--glad I'll get the frontal passage early.
 
64.1/63

 

 

lol

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Will (I think it was Will) posted a table that listed the monthly distribution of heat waves that had impacted SNE over the past xxx number of years.  Essentailly, the frequency was evenly split between the months of June/July/August.  But to be sure, the averages are diminishing.

 

 

Insane!

 

 

The best read of the season from the BOX AFD today:

 

FOR NEXT WEEK ALL MODEL GUID INDICATING POTENTIAL RECORD COOL TEMPS FOR NEW ENGLAND AS POLAR VORTEX MAY CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH QUEBEC.

-- End Changed Discussion --
 
Yucky out there this morning--glad I'll get the frontal passage early.
 
64.1/63

 

 

It's not really until later August where we really start to get a better push of cooler air into the coastal plain. August can be brutal. For now,  we'll have a nice reprieve. Maybe it tries to come back after 8/10 or so, but that is getting out there.

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It's not really until later August where we really start to get a better push of cooler air into the coastal plain. August can be brutal. For now,  we'll have a nice reprieve. Maybe it tries to come back after 8/10 or so, but that is getting out there.

 

Many low dew dandys ahead.

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It's not really until later August where we really start to get a better push of cooler air into the coastal plain. August can be brutal. For now,  we'll have a nice reprieve. Maybe it tries to come back after 8/10 or so, but that is getting out there.

 

I've got my race on 8/10--I hope it's nice and chilly for that.  My guess is that unless something comes to reenforce right then, we'll be on the backside of things with conditions moderating by then.  But like you said, that's getting out there.

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Ginx's COC weather all around.   I'm eager to see how BDL's dp changes.  A balmy 67 to start the day.

 

 

 

The early change of stressed trees should begin imminently.

 

Yeah the NAM holds on to 65+ dews for the afternoon before the bottom drops out this evening.

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