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Late July Pattern Change - Wx Discussion


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Euro is still not showing any signs of big warmth through D10 today. Looks like the best we can muster is maybe a bit more humid on Sunday otherwise its either chilly/wet or seasonable and dry.

 

Yes, but it backed off on the middle range trough depth -vs- the 00z version.  It's suspiciously playing up to its bias/tendency to over-develop troughs in the extended, only to have to modulate them toward less.  

 

I'm just wondering if we are going to have a D9 snow storm on every run from October 15 onward ...

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Yes, but it backed off on the middle range trough depth -vs- the 00z version.  It's suspiciously playing up to its bias/tendency to over-develop troughs in the extended, only to have to modulate them toward less.  

 

I'm just wondering if we are going to have a D9 snow storm on every run from October 15 onward ...

 

 

Well I don't think the trough it showed in the extended had anywhere to go but less amplified. It was showing probably record low temps on the 00z run.

 

I would doubt much of any detail beyond D7 on the Euro...but through that time, I don't see the return of the previous pattern. The ensembles somewhat support the idea of general troughiness though around D10-12...just nothing obscene. Still hints that the ridging may try to fight back during the 2nd week of August, but the signal is pretty dampened still.

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Well I don't think the trough it showed in the extended had anywhere to go but less amplified. It was showing probably record low temps on the 00z run.

 

I would doubt much of any detail beyond D7 on the Euro...but through that time, I don't see the return of the previous pattern. The ensembles somewhat support the idea of general troughiness though around D10-12...just nothing obscene. Still hints that the ridging may try to fight back during the 2nd week of August, but the signal is pretty dampened still.

Hard to argue with 2 near double digit departure days yesterday and today. Euro advertised this period from way way out. Return to normal or slightly below seems logical. Mid month ridging and slightly above normal seems logical too. 

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Well I don't think the trough it showed in the extended had anywhere to go but less amplified. It was showing probably record low temps on the 00z run.

 

I would doubt much of any detail beyond D7 on the Euro...but through that time, I don't see the return of the previous pattern. The ensembles somewhat support the idea of general troughiness though around D10-12...just nothing obscene. Still hints that the ridging may try to fight back during the 2nd week of August, but the signal is pretty dampened still.

 

 

Ha ha, tru dhat!   

 

Yeah, I'm honestly losing confidence on that latter ridge deal.  The primary means that I use to assess probabilities at those ranges are backing off the throttle on that over the last 2 days.  

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Hard to argue with 2 near double digit departure days yesterday and today. Euro advertised this period from way way out. Return to normal or slightly below seems logical. Mid month ridging and slightly above normal seems logical too.

5 out of the last 6 days below normal at BTV.

Great call by folks touting a below normal week after last week's heat.

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5 out of the last 6 days below normal at BTV.

Great call by folks touting a below normal week after last week's heat.

To be fair in SNE it's been just about normal for the past week with only 2 days below normal in the last 5 at BOS and 1 at ORH though a handful right near normal (probably will be 3 below in the last 7 counting today).

 

Certainly still a good call since that was a huge change from the +10 departures day after day prior to this past week of nice cool temps.

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To be fair in SNE it's been just about normal for the past week with only 2 days below normal in the last 5 at BOS and 1 at ORH though a handful right near normal (probably will be 3 below in the last 7 counting today).

Certainly still a good call since that was a huge change from the +10 departures day after day prior to this past week of nice cool temps.

Yeah, we had the intrusion of cooler air a day or two earlier up here.

But still no doubt this week will be much different than last week. Even normal is a 10-15F drop between this week and last week.

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I miss Kevin's pot stirring.

  • Thankfully the dews come back to stay this weekend

     

  • Huh? Even the Kuro doesn't have high dews next week!

     

  • Euro with cool shot bust after bust this summer. Ride the new and improved GFS!!

     

  • Meh - the Euro did the best with yesterday's storm. The GFS was atrocious.

     

  • Euro has overamplified troughs all summer. It's not going to be in the 60's and 70's all next week,,but if you used the Euro you'd have to forecast that.

     

  • fail fail fail fail fail

     

  • Just like your forecast yesterday!!!

 

     :lol:

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Ride the model that shows the weather you desire... :weenie: rule #1

I never thought I'd hear him say go with the GFS instead of the ECMWF.... someone remember this in the winter.

 

 

 

Yes sir, ride it like a angry bull this winter if it has a continuous train of day 10 Nor'Easters roaring up the coast into a cold Quebec high. 

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Kevin ran in the Narragansett 10 mile race today, so I'm sure he was happy that the dews were only in the 60s instead of 70s! 

 

Our daily negative departures are eating away at the monthly departure from normal for the record at BDL.  We'll probably still make it with the help of the high minimum temperatures early in the month and standard heatwave last week but it's not as impressive as it once was.

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Our daily negative departures are eating away at the monthly departure from normal for the record at BDL.  We'll probably still make it with the help of the high minimum temperatures early in the month and standard heatwave last week but it's not as impressive as it once was.

Today and early next week should stem the tide a bit with highs in the mid 80's....Thurs/Fri really put a dent in it with temps in the 60's and low 70's for highs...

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