weathafella Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 CFS blows. I wish it weren't so given some of the long progs but it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 possible severe sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 summer is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2013 Author Share Posted July 26, 2013 possible severe sunday? Depends if we can break the clouds a bit - I think we could wind up sort of gloomy during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 26, 2013 Author Share Posted July 26, 2013 Doubt it. Shear sucks, dew points suck, CAPE sucks, lapse rates suck. Looking just cloudy with chance of some showers and a couple isolated t-storms. Well - there's a fair amount of 0-6km bulk shear and a nice surge of high theta-e air in the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Sh*t I was looking at something different. Dews,shear, and CAPE aren't all that bad. Lapse rates are lacking though... I'm deleting my former post so I don't mix people up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Well - there's a fair amount of 0-6km bulk shear and a nice surge of high theta-e air in the boundary layer. just wonder if we can pop some fakenados Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 maybe we'll broil after day 10--anyone remember the August 2002 heatwave? That was epic...7-10 days of upper 80's and low 90's with humidity. A true Kevin special. Six-day heatwave for the Farmington COOP and 7 of 8, and it came a week after the AC quit on our old (200K miles) Subaru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 CFS blows. I wish it weren't so given some of the long progs but it is. I think CFS 2 has been much better . 66 at noon second hottest climo day of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 We're now back to June 14th pattern wise. Lets see if the 6 week pattern replicates in that order. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 CFS blows. I wish it weren't so given some of the long progs but it is. I think CFS 2 has been much better . 66 at noon second hottest climo day of the year. In the rain so bootleg but yes the change from a week ago is dramatic. CFS progs run daily. 2 days ago a boreal December. Today's prog is a huge torch. Just sayin. 2 days ago August normal, today below, tomorrow above! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 In the rain so bootleg but yes the change from a week ago is dramatic. CFS progs run daily. 2 days ago a boreal December. Today's prog is a huge torch. Just sayin. 2 days ago August normal, today below, tomorrow above! LOL-that's why JB didnt post it today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 LOL-that's why JB didnt post it today.... I have not seen todays monthlies but yesterday the three month set were cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 In the rain so bootleg but yes the change from a week ago is dramatic. Its has not rained here since 7 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Maybe jerry can link me up to the monthly switch. All i see is from July 24 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/glbT2me3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Maybe jerry can link me up to the monthly switch. All i see is from July 24 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/glbT2me3Mon.html Storm vista by subscription Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 I honestly think CFS2 is better, here is its July Progs and actuals. Obviously not an end all but a tool. Talking weeklies and monthlies not LR which as anyone knows is a crapshoot. Look at those with a grain of salt and use consistency as a basis for some truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Storm vista by subscription How do they get those before they are published? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Storm vista by subscription How do they get those before they are published? I think they must get the direct model feed but otherwise I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 MEX is aoa for the next 9 days starting tomorrow excluding Sunday which is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Why would you run a long range monthly or weekly forecast model every day? That can't lead to any increase in skill...just wider variance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Why would you run a long range monthly or weekly forecast model every day? That can't lead to any increase in skill...just wider variance. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 MEX is aoa for the next 9 days starting tomorrow excluding Sunday which is close. First two weeks of August 09 on analogs, looks pretty normal with some COC days, no high heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 First two weeks of August 09 on analogs, looks pretty normal with some COC days, no high heat. i remember Aug 09 being a muggy month after a wet June and Cool/dry July that year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 I think CFS 2 has been much better . 66 at noon second hottest climo day of the year. Either way cfs 2 has maine solidly above normal and most of emass /sne ave temps, while the rockies plains and lakes have the real cooler departures. Sort of near ave for western sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Either way cfs 2 has maine solidly above normal and most of emass /sne ave temps, while the rockies plains and lakes have the real cooler departures. Sort of near ave for western sneI think the greatest negative departures stay to our west as has been the tendency throughout 2013. The trough is oriented over the Great Lakes with southerly flow ahead of it...850s get down into the lower single digits over Minnesota and Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 I think the greatest negative departures stay to our west as has been the tendency throughout 2013. The trough is oriented over the Great Lakes with southerly flow ahead of it...850s get down into the lower single digits over Minnesota and Michigan. that may give us alot of muggy air if that verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 that may give us alot of muggy air if that verifies Hope so... but anything has to be an improvement from highs in the 50s here yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Euro is still not showing any signs of big warmth through D10 today. Looks like the best we can muster is maybe a bit more humid on Sunday otherwise its either chilly/wet or seasonable and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 i remember Aug 09 being a muggy month after a wet June and Cool/dry July that year... You were dry in July 2009? Farther north, it was my wettest of 15 Julys with 7.29". (We're just under 6" this year, and today's near whiff probably means 2009 keeps the lead.) That year July had measurable rain on 24 days, most I've recorded in any month, with a trace on one more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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