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Late July Pattern Change - Wx Discussion


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The cold fronts keep coming, that's good news.

"After Sunday...the area gets in the dry slot behind the cold front...but steepening lapse rates due to cold air advection aloft suggests the potential for diurnally driven showers on Monday and especially on Tuesday. Will therefore go ahead and add a chance of showers to Monday and Tuesday. With clouds and showers lingering around...looking at temperatures about 2 to 4 degrees below normal. Westerly flow develops Wednesday and Thursday...so drier weather is expected along with temperatures right around seasonal normals."

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I was going off the threaded extremes site, but it looks like they have it wrong. NCDC also has 59F for the high that day. That matches what I remember though with the temps being in the 50s all afternoon.

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I think we just wanted a change...you even said it in another post, this cool-down was needed by the soul.

I think everyone here enjoys a taste of heat and humidity, but we also like changing weather and not a stake humid pattern. The same thing happens in the winter...if its dry and cold for 3 weeks straight, we get antsy for something to happen.

I'm all for hot days if they are broken up with days like this once in a while. Change in weather is what's exciting about it.

But the collective on the whole is here because of snow and winter. Winter storms are when membership grows fastest and the servers max out on users online. It's just the way it is...there's something magical about snow.

 

I agree with all this...  And, we are all human, and no one on here from novice to Met is a pure, perfect poster.  I know I am not!  

 

I learned a lesson, based upon exposure.  For the last 6 years I have been steadily employed in relatively higher salaried positions in climate controlled environments.  During mid winter, I lost my job.  It was on very good terms, even providing me with a sparkling recommendation/PDF by management.  Accolades don't pay bills.  Nor do they buy AC units for the main living area of my small humble abode.  I sat that out, with fan on high, beads of swept rolling despite the constant air flow set up mere feet from my face, all day long, in front of my home PC doing the job search tedium.  The lesson?  6 years in climate controlled environment seriously de-acclimates one to heat.  

 

Every heat wave we have had over the last half decade or more, I only spent minimal time enraptured.  I would leave the comfy office and walk out into infernos at 5 or 6pm, get in my car and crank the AC on the rides home.  When I arrived, I would turn on the AC unit in my bedroom.  Sit in front of the fan and just about the time enough was enough, it was time for bed anyway.  Sleep in an icy room.  Rinse, repeat, all week long.  

 

I was up to here with the heat a week ago Monday, before the WAR retrograde was even getting going.  I'm just not well designed for high heat.  I sweat really easily, probably because of years of working out ...4 5 ..6 mile runs, or 40-mile b-rides.  92/72 all week culminating in a day that probably was more like 101 in backyards was difficult to put it kindly.  I came to being very dehydrated for the course.

 

When it broke I argued against embracing pattern change, not because I did not want it too, but because we had been duped by the trough arrival for almost a month's worth of positive departures/models rushing things along.  Again ... that was not to argue against a pattern change, just that I was not sure at the time it was merely a recession amid a longer term that would reassert the same thing.  If that happened, and at the time it was too early to be certain, then "the pattern" really would not have changed where it counts -- on the longer term curve.  

 

Thankfully, the NAO went negative, and I know eyes roll with indexes in summer, but the NAO does correlate -- just not as effectively.  I would say though that this is not a coincidence.  One thing I am noticing thought is that the WAR signal is actually still there.  If you look that Euro oper. runs, there is a giant 594dm loaded ridge out there, and over the next 3 days, it tries to retrograde, but is - imo - merely being compressed S below the southward suppression or the westerlies.  We kind of have two pattern vying right now, but the suppressed version is winning at our latitude.  F fine by me, man.  good lord  

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LOL at the Euro. The extreme heat and humidity crowd is in big trouble with the late September pattern that's modeled.

Delmarva flirting with songle digit 850s at the end of the run...lol. I. wish we had a few more days to put a dent into the positive departures this month. If I lived in CT, I wouldn't want torch mins being the primary reason for BDL's warmest month on record.
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Delmarva flirting with songle digit 850s at the end of the run...lol. I. wish we had a few more days to put a dent into the positive departures this month. If I lived in CT, I wouldn't want torch mins being the primary reason for BDL's warmest month on record.

 

Super humidity - what a lame way to do it. 

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What does it show?

 

 

Very chilly temps in the LR...I'd take with a grain of salt given the timeframe, but around D9 it has a late September/early October type airmass in here. Before that, it has another chilly coastal storm late next week.

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Very chilly temps in the LR...I'd take with a grain of salt given the timeframe, but around D9 it has a late September/early October type airmass in here. Before that, it has another chilly coastal storm late next week.

 

Yeah while the extreme chill is unlikely - it seems like the odds of high humidity and heat are very low in the next 10 days. 

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Yeah while the extreme chill is unlikely - it seems like the odds of high humidity and heat are very low in the next 10 days. 

 

Agreed. Whether we get an unusual early August taste of polar air or not, the heat signal is low/non-existent for now. Hints of return perhaps by the 2nd week of August though the 00z ensembles weren't as enthusiastic as the 12z.

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We're now back to June 14th pattern wise. Lets see if the 6 week pattern replicates in that order.

3 Cf passages since the 21st with another one Sunday.

3? I give you 7/21, 7/24. Overall it appears to be a good pattern call for you presuming current guidance holds up.

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