LithiaWx Posted August 12, 2013 Author Share Posted August 12, 2013 I don't care if a broken model shows things like snow that didn't fall since there was no report of that kind of widespread precip, rain, snow, light or heavy, it's call fact checking. It's called reality. I would rather not toil in ignorance and put truth and accuracy above a bias ignorant agenda. I predicted a min of 500GT on Grace multiple times. It's clear that will happen. Soooo??????? In a week or two when you're 275-375GT prediction craps the bed I guess I should show up and bash you. Luckily for you, you once nailed the Hudson Bay freeze up or you would be batting 0.000 in the climate change forum with everything you talk about. You didn't read the paper on the model and how it works. What parameters it tracks to form it's output. Yet you ignore what I say and then pick out anything I am wrong about while ignoring reality because you are in love with cold and snow. Which is all good. I remember loving snow and cold like that when I was a child as well. But there came a point where scientific integrity is more important. You pretend like you care about that but you don't. Next... I never predicted that. I said one model run of the GFS portrays close to a 70% melt extent. So???? This is what a prediction looks like: We are closing in on 300GT for the melt season on the model you made the prediction from. My prediction was a min of 500GT on grace which won't be out until November. Look's good for you're entire 100GT range to fall short. You guys who have no humility come in and trash others while being terribly inaccurate over and over is something else. The median is 325GT which we may reach before August 1st. Good Luck. Looks like my prediction was dead on.... It certainly didn't "crap the bed" (very vulgar btw) Looks like 1 GT of loss today. Snow in the Northern sections of the GIS. Looks like total loss for the season was about 350GT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Looks like my prediction was dead on.... It certainly didn't "crap the bed" (very vulgar btw) Looks like 1 GT of loss today. Snow in the Northern sections of the GIS. Looks like total loss for the season was about 350GT. I assume you know it's a figure of speech. Not sure how a grown Man can be serious about a figure of speech that simply imply's you blew you're prediction as being vulgar. crapped the bed When a job seeker fluffs and bluffs on their resume to get a job interview. When they show up, they don't have the skills or experience on the resume that got them the interview, they crap the bed. Gerrald was asked about his ability to manage 20 employees, he didn't have an answer so he crapped the bed during the interview.Deshonda said she used MS Word for 5 years, but on the interview she didn't know how to open the program. Deshonda was asked to leave at that point. She totally crapped the bed on that one. Ok. So you make a prediction that has error margins that are probably larger than the OHC data error margins and call it dead on. You predicted 275-375GT loss. Maybe in the global temp thread we should start predicting 2013 on GIS will finish between .52C and .62C. When it finishes at .61C. Tell everyone they nailed it. Ironically just one day after you gave us the total loss for the melt season. We see slightly over a -3.5GT drop. Look's like a decent shot at snow over the Northern half of GIS. If not. The melt season won't be over tomorrow either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 13, 2013 Author Share Posted August 13, 2013 I assume you know it's a figure of speech. Not sure how a grown Man can be serious about a figure of speech that simply imply's you blew you're prediction as being vulgar. Ok. So you make a prediction that has error margins that are probably larger than the OHC data error margins and call it dead on. You predicted 275-375GT loss. Maybe in the global temp thread we should start predicting 2013 on GIS will finish between .52C and .62C. When it finishes at .61C. Tell everyone they nailed it. Ironically just one day after you gave us the total loss for the melt season. We see slightly over a -3.5GT drop. Look's like a decent shot at snow over the Northern half of GIS. If not. The melt season won't be over tomorrow either. I nailed it. Melt season is all but over. You're going to have to find a new problem to obsess about. I plan on posting frequently over the winter updating on how much Greenland gains this winter after a benign melt season compared to 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 14, 2013 Author Share Posted August 14, 2013 Greenland saw a benign 1 GT melt day yesterday. The euro says melt season is over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 15, 2013 Author Share Posted August 15, 2013 Greenland GAINED 1 GT yesterday. This is the first mass gain for the GIS since Early May. Old man winter is busting out his sledgehammer of cold on the GIS a bit earlier than climo this year. Greenland is about to decend into the dark abyss of winters icy grasp for many months. Say goodnight to melt season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Greenland GAINED 1 GT yesterday. This is the first mass gain for the GIS since Early May. Old man winter is busting out his sledgehammer of cold on the GIS a bit earlier than climo this year. Greenland is about to decend into the dark abyss of winters icy grasp for many months. Say goodnight to melt season. Will need to see the math, but it looks like a net gain for the year should be likely. Anyone have a link on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 16, 2013 Author Share Posted August 16, 2013 Greenland GAINED 1 GT again yesterday. Sledgehammer, icy cold grip, Yea go Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 17, 2013 Author Share Posted August 17, 2013 Plus 2 GT yesterday. 4 GT gain over 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Plus 2 GT yesterday. 4 GT gain over 3 days. image.jpg image.jpg Someone correct me if I am wrong, but the way I read that graph, we have a net gain of 150GT of ice this year. That is provided we flat-line for the remainder of Aug. Historically, the graph does not show any substantial melting from this point onward. That has to be encouraging if you are hoping for a recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Someone correct me if I am wrong, but the way I read that graph, we have a net gain of 150GT of ice this year. That is provided we flat-line for the remainder of Aug. Historically, the graph does not show any substantial melting from this point onward. That has to be encouraging if you are hoping for a recovery. There isn't a net gain on GIS for the year. There hasn't been one since at least sometime in the mid 90s or before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipS Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 Someone correct me if I am wrong, but the way I read that graph, we have a net gain of 150GT of ice this year. That is provided we flat-line for the remainder of Aug. Historically, the graph does not show any substantial melting from this point onward. That has to be encouraging if you are hoping for a recovery. There will be a net loss for 2013 for the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) and no chance for a net gain. I can understand your perception because several posters persistently cherrypick the data they present and give only an incomplete and deceptive picture of what's happening. There are three major factors affecting the GIS mass balance - precipitation, melting, and glacial calving. Glacial calving is the 600 pound gorilla in this situation so it's interesting that some pseudo-skeptics choose to ignore it. Here is the current plot [source] with all three factors: As you can see, the GIS has lost about 320 Gtons of mass so far in 2013. But you can also see that 2013 has been a pretty typical year for melting and had trended close to the long-term average. If 2013 continues to follow the long-term average, precipitation over the rest of the year will offset some of the lost mass and the GIS will end the year with a net loss of around 250 Gtons. Much better than the net loss for 2012. It'll be a regression to the mean, not a recovery in any real sense. An important point to keep in mind is that glacial calving doesn't magically stop at the end of summer - it continues year-round, and it has accelerated in recent years. So the GIS could have a net loss for 2013 around 300 Gtons. We'll just have to keep watching. To get some idea of the magnitude of 250 Gtons of ice, that volume of ice would cover the entire District of Columbia with over 1,400 meters of glacial ice. That's close to a mile thick layer of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 18, 2013 Author Share Posted August 18, 2013 The GIS posted an impressive and way above average 4.5 GT GAIN yesterday! That is an impressive 6.5 GT gain over the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 20, 2013 Author Share Posted August 20, 2013 Greenland gained another impressive and above climo 2 GT yesterday. This brings the three day total to 8.5GT GAINED!!!! DMI is a well respected source whose model algorithms can be trusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Marietta - where do you get those graphics above^? Those are some impressive gains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipS Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Greenland gained another impressive and above climo 2 GT yesterday. This brings the three day total to 8.5GT GAINED!!!! DMI is a well respected source whose model algorithms can be trusted. image.jpg image.jpg Very impressive - and as we can see from your plots, all the GIS needs is another 200,000,000,000 tons (200 Gtons) of precipitation in the next 11 days and it'll reach the long-term average. Exciting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Greenland gained another impressive and above climo 2 GT yesterday. This brings the three day total to 8.5GT GAINED!!!! DMI is a well respected source whose model algorithms can be trusted. yeah. Will you post their validation papers and error bars? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 20, 2013 Author Share Posted August 20, 2013 Marietta - where do you get those graphics above^? Those are some impressive gains! They come from DMI, the Danish Meteorological Institute. They are a trusted source, people who do not agree with what they are showing will try and discredit the agency but they are very well known and trusted. Here is the source http://beta.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/Keep in mind that it is only a model and not actual conditions. This model does not account for glacial calving but I can assure you glacial calving doesn't decimate the ice sheet and it is quite normal. There is a small loss each year when you add in calving but it is difficult to know exactly how much. What we do know is this model will give you a good idea of what is happening on the GIS. Right now the sheet is putting on more mass than it is losing due to melt and evaporation. 2013 compared to 2012 was pretty benign but still right at 2 SD more than we should have seen regarding melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 20, 2013 Author Share Posted August 20, 2013 Greenland gained mass again yesterday now at a five day string of gains... Melt season looks pretty much over. People who enjoy watching the ice and snow get obliterated are not very happy with this news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 21, 2013 Share Posted August 21, 2013 Yeah, as I expected. Don't see the validation papers. It must be a good time calling out other people, trashing them, saying they don't back their words(when they always do) and yet making claims and not backing them up. Must not own a mirror. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 21, 2013 Author Share Posted August 21, 2013 The GIS tacks on another 1/2 GT of mass that is 500,000,000 tons of ice.... Over the last several days the GIS has added 10,000,000,000 tons of ice or so that is 10 billion tons in just a few days! How exciting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 21, 2013 Author Share Posted August 21, 2013 Melt is well below normal to close out melt season... Also tacking on mass this early is not normal either.. Winter is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 21, 2013 Author Share Posted August 21, 2013 Using modis Greenland has been saved so far by huge May cold. It reminds me of 2011. I expect the melt to be 550-600GT as it stands now. If things go wild sunny and warm for two months then 750GT+ Agree. We can see on Visible satellite melt areas not picked up by the remote sensing at this point. But the widespread melt hasn't' started yet. The terra 3-6-7 images show how thin the snow layer is. Once the melt kicks off it will be vigorous This doesn't look like the deep freeze to me: I don't think there is a real appreciation by many to what is happening up there. Conditions have been extremely great for Greenland the last month. With barely any warmth the surface melting goes above normal. Given how damn cold it's been, we may see another week or so go below normal. But it will take minimal warming for Greenlands melt to go wild. Which it will. We have June, July, and August to go. It really doesn't matter, most of the actually land ice loss is within 30KM of the ice edge south of 70N. we could hold steady at climo melt are and still see 600GT get wasted. 550 - 600 GT 'copter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 21, 2013 Author Share Posted August 21, 2013 Greenland melt 12 vs 13.gif Awesome find! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 So no validation papers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 22, 2013 Author Share Posted August 22, 2013 So no validation papers? DMI is a well respected source of information. You can search for validation papers on the model. I trust DMI and dont need to see them to belive the model they endorse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryM Posted August 22, 2013 Share Posted August 22, 2013 The snow cover in Peary Land is unusual. Terry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 23, 2013 Author Share Posted August 23, 2013 Looks like the GIS gained about 1/16th to 1/8th of a GT yesterday. The string of gains continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 23, 2013 Author Share Posted August 23, 2013 The snow cover in Peary Land is unusual. Terry What do you find unusual about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 So no validation papers for another day? So is the new way on the forum? No need to show if a product has any value? It's just based on what you want ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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