Greenland 2013

[Jonger]

 

We will let the folks know about this problem in a time capsule marked,"Open in the year 2,500".

[LithiaWx]

It looks like we made it back to the edge of the SD line today.

However the seasonal total is heading out of the SD range. This range is for 1990-2011.

So this benign melt season is shaping up to finish at least 2SD below normal. We are about 20GT from being below the bottom of the SD line for the season.

Tomorrow is another warm day.

This season has been benign compared to 2012, I am not sure why that word and subtitle to this thread gets to you so badly. one more day of warmth (today) and then it gets colder and colder and more favaorable for the GIS. Enjoy your last warm day for a while Friv, the cold is moving in if the Euro and GFS are correct.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The end is near.  Or so we hope.  The melt season has been in high gear for a while now.  And continues to roll on and push this year which features much much more favorable weather for a weak melt season is turning out to be one of the worst. 

 

We are in the third week in a row of very high melt days. 

 

 

 

The NAO has done GIS like Brutus did Ceaser.  Like Rick James did Charlie Murphy and like Charlie Murphy did Rick James.  Smacked, Stabbed, kicked, dirty couch yeah all of it.  It digs in a bit deeper for a while.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tomorrow is another day at torch-fest 2013.  As the ridge strengthens.  Models have trended more North and West of GIS with the ridge, which is welcomed news for the medium to long range.

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Another huge melt day.  Well below the 2SD range.  the average loss today is about -1.25GT.  We saw -7.25GT. 

 

I think it will slow down soon.

 

 

 

Tomorrow is very warm over the SW side.  While some cooler air is pulled down the East Coast.  but it's probably going to make no difference.  The large ridge over the Western Side will provide ample clear skies over the main melt regions for a late season bonanza.  Not to mention these temps are way above normal.

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Beautiful day.  SW coast is turning nice and lush for GIS.

 

 

[LithiaWx]

Most recent GFS throws Greenland in the freezer and locks the door. The euro isn't as cold but still pretty brutal. Winter is coming and the melt rates are going to slow to a crawl or become positives very soon if the models are correct.

[LithiaWx]

Melt not approaching 2012

[Jonger]

Beautiful day.  SW coast is turning nice and lush for GIS.

 

 

The snow looks really white this year.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The snow looks really white this year.

 

Beautiful.

 

 

 

Now at about -340GT loss for the melt so far on the model.

 

 

[LithiaWx]

Beautiful.

Now at about -340GT loss for the melt so far on the model.

Well below 2012 and should be coming to a screeching halt shortly. Also a net gain of ice for the season so far.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Another warm day on tap for GIS.  Southern GIS will see Freeze levels well up into the 2000M+ range.

 

NW GIS/W GIS also above freezing.

 

 

At 00z:

 

Western GIS freeze level 3000M.

Southern GIS freeze level 3000M.

Se GIS 2200M.

Easrtern GIS at 70N. 1250M.

NE GIS 875M.

NW GIS 1900M.

 

 

 

 

 

Night vision beautifully shows us where the main melt regions are and subsequent lower albedo.

 

Eastern GIS has been fairly active this year.  But during this long stretch of around or below -2SD melt days we can see the SW/WSW GIS ice sheet has seen it's albedo lowered substansially.

 

We are lucky this pattern showed up so late.

 

 

 

But we are still progged to see a -NAO for a while and get deeper the next couple days.

 

[LithiaWx]

Another warm day on tap for GIS. Southern GIS will see Freeze levels well up into the 2000M+ range.

NW GIS/W GIS also above freezing.

At 00z:

Western GIS freeze level 3000M.

Southern GIS freeze level 3000M.

Se GIS 2200M.

Easrtern GIS at 70N. 1250M.

NE GIS 875M.

NW GIS 1900M.

Night vision beautifully shows us where the main melt regions are and subsequent lower albedo.

Eastern GIS has been fairly active this year. But during this long stretch of around or below -2SD melt days we can see the SW/WSW GIS ice sheet has seen it's albedo lowered substansially.

We are lucky this pattern showed up so late.

But we are still progged to see a -NAO for a while and get deeper the next couple days.

I am not aware of the significance of the NAO on the GIS the current NAO state is weak as well.

The cold starts today and builds from here on according to the models.

[PhillipS]

Well below 2012 and should be coming to a screeching halt shortly. Also a net gain of ice for the season so far.

image.jpg

 

You are forgetting (or ignoring) the fact that those plots are only for melting and do not include GIS mass loss due to glacial calving.  A recent study by Bolch et al [source] put the mass loss due to calving at around 41 Gton/year.  Hardly insignificant.

 

And while you are correct that the 2013 melt season has been well below 2012, it has also been well above the long-term average.  I don't see any reason to be smug or celebratory.

[LakeEffectKing]

Yeah Marietta....stop with the champagne and confetti!  Way over the top.....

[bluewave]

The streak had to end sometime. 19 consecutive -NAO summer months was off the charts.

 

2006 1.27 -0.51 -1.28 1.24 -1.14     0.84 0.90 -1.73 -1.62 -2.24 0.44 1.34
2007 0.22 -0.47 1.44 0.17 0.66      -1.31 -0.58 -0.14 0.72 0.45 0.58 0.34
2008 0.89 0.73 0.08 -1.07 -1.73    - 1.39 -1.27 -1.16 1.02 -0.04 -0.32 -0.28
2009 -0.01 0.06 0.57 -0.20 1.68     -1.21 -2.15 -0.19 1.51 -1.03 -0.02 -1.93
2010 -1.11 -1.98 -0.88 -0.72 -1.49  -0.82 -0.42 -1.22 -0.79 -0.93 -1.62 -1.85
2011 -0.88 0.70 0.61 2.48 -0.06     -1.28 -1.51 -1.35 0.54 0.39 1.36 2.52
2012 1.17 0.42 1.27 0.47 -0.91       -2.53 -1.32 -0.98 -0.59 -2.06 -0.58 0.17
2013 0.35 -0.45 -1.61 0.69 0.57       0.52 0.67

[LithiaWx]

You are forgetting (or ignoring) the fact that those plots are only for melting and do not include GIS mass loss due to glacial calving.  A recent study by Bolch et al [source] put the mass loss due to calving at around 41 Gton/year.  Hardly insignificant.

 

And while you are correct that the 2013 melt season has been well below 2012, it has also been well above the long-term average.  I don't see any reason to be smug or celebratory.

  

Yeah Marietta....stop with the champagne and confetti!  Way over the top.....

Phillip, it is my prerogative to be joyful of news that doesn't devastate the ice. I don't find major melt exciting like others do. I find joy in looking at the positives when possible. We are at a net gain for the year, that is all that should matter right now. The GIS wasn't demolished or rolled up and smoked (not my choice of words) like it was in 2012. That is a fantastic outcome. It could have been a horrible season and it wasn't. Take the wins where you can get them as this season was a victory much like the arctic and Antarctic sea ice was this season.

LEK, you're invited over for the Greenland didn't get rolled up and smoked like 2012 party. I also have a balloon drop planned for this event. I'm tentatively scheduling It for when the GIS starts adding on mass again.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The streak had to end sometime. 19 consecutive -NAO summer months was off the charts.

 

2006 1.27 -0.51 -1.28 1.24 -1.14     0.84 0.90 -1.73 -1.62 -2.24 0.44 1.34

2007 0.22 -0.47 1.44 0.17 0.66      -1.31 -0.58 -0.14 0.72 0.45 0.58 0.34

2008 0.89 0.73 0.08 -1.07 -1.73    - 1.39 -1.27 -1.16 1.02 -0.04 -0.32 -0.28

2009 -0.01 0.06 0.57 -0.20 1.68     -1.21 -2.15 -0.19 1.51 -1.03 -0.02 -1.93

2010 -1.11 -1.98 -0.88 -0.72 -1.49  -0.82 -0.42 -1.22 -0.79 -0.93 -1.62 -1.85

2011 -0.88 0.70 0.61 2.48 -0.06     -1.28 -1.51 -1.35 0.54 0.39 1.36 2.52

2012 1.17 0.42 1.27 0.47 -0.91       -2.53 -1.32 -0.98 -0.59 -2.06 -0.58 0.17

2013 0.35 -0.45 -1.61 0.69 0.57       0.52 0.67

 

 

 

it's also pretty ugly though.  There are pretty clear fundamental changes taking place that 2013 has shown us are pretty powerful in the ice melting business. 

 

The colder +NAO regime that will be 70-80% of this Summer melt season wasn't enough to prevent 2013 from likely reaching within 85% or better of the 2013 Summer ice mass loss.

 

It wasn't very long ago major torching Summers with -NAOs would not come near that.

[Jonger]

The streak had to end sometime. 19 consecutive -NAO summer months was off the charts.

 

2006 1.27 -0.51 -1.28 1.24 -1.14     0.84 0.90 -1.73 -1.62 -2.24 0.44 1.34

2007 0.22 -0.47 1.44 0.17 0.66      -1.31 -0.58 -0.14 0.72 0.45 0.58 0.34

2008 0.89 0.73 0.08 -1.07 -1.73    - 1.39 -1.27 -1.16 1.02 -0.04 -0.32 -0.28

2009 -0.01 0.06 0.57 -0.20 1.68     -1.21 -2.15 -0.19 1.51 -1.03 -0.02 -1.93

2010 -1.11 -1.98 -0.88 -0.72 -1.49  -0.82 -0.42 -1.22 -0.79 -0.93 -1.62 -1.85

2011 -0.88 0.70 0.61 2.48 -0.06     -1.28 -1.51 -1.35 0.54 0.39 1.36 2.52

2012 1.17 0.42 1.27 0.47 -0.91       -2.53 -1.32 -0.98 -0.59 -2.06 -0.58 0.17

2013 0.35 -0.45 -1.61 0.69 0.57       0.52 0.67

 

 

 

it's also pretty ugly though.  There are pretty clear fundamental changes taking place that 2013 has shown us are pretty powerful in the ice melting business. 

 

The colder +NAO regime that will be 70-80% of this Summer melt season wasn't enough to prevent 2013 from likely reaching within 85% or better of the 2013 Summer ice mass loss.

 

It wasn't very long ago major torching Summers with -NAOs would not come near that.

probably just a new measuring method.

[The_Global_Warmer]

probably just a new measuring method.

 

 

No.

 

Or global sea level rise would have been higher.

[PhillipS]

  

Phillip, it is my prerogative to be joyful of news that doesn't devastate the ice. I don't find major melt exciting like others do. I find joy in looking at the positives when possible. We are at a net gain for the year, that is all that should matter right now. The GIS wasn't demolished or rolled up and smoked (not my choice of words) like it was in 2012. That is a fantastic outcome. It could have been a horrible season and it wasn't. Take the wins where you can get them as this season was a victory much like the arctic and Antarctic sea ice was this season.

LEK, you're invited over for the Greenland didn't get rolled up and smoked like 2012 party. I also have a balloon drop planned for this event. I'm tentatively scheduling It for when the GIS starts adding on mass again.

 

How do you figure that there has been a net gain for 2013?  Here is the latest GIS mass balance plot from polarportal.org [source]:

 

 

As anyone can see, Greenland has already lost nearly 300Gtons (300 km3) of ice this year.  Which is less than the nearly 500 Gtons lost in 2012, but isn't a net gain by any stretch of the data.  

 

Just to put this year's ice loss into perspective - the GIS ice lost to date is enough to cover the entire District of Columbia to a depth of about 1,800 meters.  So knock yourself out if you feel that's reason enough to party.  Please excuse me for feeling the GIS melting is serious, and not a cause for celebration.

[The_Global_Warmer]

We have finally had a melt day well within the -2SD range.  This is the lowest loss day we have had in about 25 days.  The season is winding down.  Closing in on -350GT from the model.

 

 

 

 

Tomorrow's forecast:

 

[LithiaWx]

How do you figure that there has been a net gain for 2013? Here is the latest GIS mass balance plot from polarportal.org [source]:

As anyone can see, Greenland has already lost nearly 300Gtons (300 km3) of ice this year. Which is less than the nearly 500 Gtons lost in 2012, but isn't a net gain by any stretch of the data.

Just to put this year's ice loss into perspective - the GIS ice lost to date is enough to cover the entire District of Columbia to a depth of about 1,800 meters. So knock yourself out if you feel that's reason enough to party. Please excuse me for feeling the GIS melting is serious, and not a cause for celebration.

melt is typically measured september 1 to august 31. net gain in that timeframe.

[PhillipS]

melt is typically measured september 1 to august 31. net gain in that timeframe.

 

Ah, cherrypicking - now I understand your position.  Silly me, I was using ALL of the available data.

[LithiaWx]

Ah, cherrypicking - now I understand your position. Silly me, I was using ALL of the available data.

That is not cherry picking. Use your head and think about it. If we measuered from January 1 to December 31 it would still be a gain once we get to 12/31.

I was actually using more data than you were. What date do you start and stop the clock.

[bluewave]

it's also pretty ugly though.  There are pretty clear fundamental changes taking place that 2013 has shown us are pretty powerful in the ice melting business. 

 

The colder +NAO regime that will be 70-80% of this Summer melt season wasn't enough to prevent 2013 from likely reaching within 85% or better of the 2013 Summer ice mass loss.

 

It wasn't very long ago major torching Summers with -NAOs would not come near that.

 

This summer so far has been much cooler than the 2007-2012 due to the flip in the NAO.

 

[roardog]

The arctic regions have been much cooler this year compared to recent years. However, the ice has been damaged from consecutive years of "warm" weather, so even a cooler Summer isn't going to bring us back to 1980s ice extent. I get the feeling from some people here that unless we ended with a 6.0 mil extent that there's no good news as far as the extent goes. No matter what happens from this point forward, the ice would have to recover yearly from the damage that was done in the past years. If the next ten years featured cooler than normal arctic temps, the ice would gradually recover with more MYI each year. However, even in this situation it would take many years to get us back to 1980s extent. I think we've seen this year that a cooler arctic can definitely result in a yearly gain in sea ice.

[The_Global_Warmer]

There is no where near a net gain any year in the last decade. 

 

 

[LithiaWx]

DMI states the Greenland mass gain in winter out paces mass loss in summer. They do not account for calving but it is still a net gain according to the Danish.

[LithiaWx]

There is no where near a net gain any year in the last decade.

I am pretty sure this was a projection not actual data and you have been asked to source this multiple times. Since you choose not to it is worthless in my eyes until I see a source. It may or may not be legit but until it is sourced it is suspect.

[AvantHiatus]

I am pretty sure this was a projection not actual data and you have been asked to source this multiple times. Since you choose not to it is worthless in my eyes until I see a source. It may or may not be legit but until it is sourced it is suspect.

Consider the temperature anomalies over Greenland and the -NAO of years past, definitely no signs of GIS gaining net ice mass. As well as the numerous empirical evidence through videos and images of calving ice and massive melt ponds.