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11 out of 11 ensembles from the 12z GFS give VA snow


Midlo Snow Maker

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ALL 18Z members get some snow up to DC. OP is the only one that does not!

3 Members are a bigger deal for DC... (P003, P005, N003)

All 18Z members seem to have decent snow for E VA including RIC.

It appears that many of the members aren't really suffering from the conv. feedback that the Op is suffering from, resulting in a more potent low.

Glad I don't have to make a forecast.

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When is the last time we had a basic overrunning 3-5" event around here? It seems like it's been too long. Those are nice and easy on the nerves. No perfect timing...... no models flopping around like a beached fish.....no emotional roller coaster..... just a nice plume of moisture from AL through TN and straight to DC with some cold air and decent lift. Ice storms have become pretty infrequent too. My memory tells me that these events used to be a lot more common than the last couple of three years.

All this perfect timing and multiple ingredient stuff is wearing me out.

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