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Pattern change lurking, discuss the upcoming weather banter and all

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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well done. 

Thanks, pretty solid signal well in advance that the hemisphere was realigning its wave pattern. Our heat is now Europes problem. Summer is not over by a long shot but it appears to me that the trough wants to stick around even longer . I told Jerry Aug 12 but even that might be optimistic. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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LL can now call PVD "the new torch spot of SNE" after he gave up on ORH when we cooled down more than other spots this past spring.

Seems that SW Ct was indeed the torch spot for July and even after the change they maintained positive numbers, true near Bob too, think the hot Atlantic had a role in that, keeping overnights several degrees warmer than the interior. Now that the water has mixed out and SSTs have taken the dive we all expected those numbers should come down and the change will be reflected even there, sort of a lag effect if you will.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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Seems that SW Ct was indeed the torch spot for July and even after the change they maintained positive numbers, true near Bob too, think the hot Atlantic had a role in that, keeping overnights several degrees warmer than the interior. Now that the water has mixed out and SSTs have taken the dive we all expected those numbers should come down and the change will be reflected even there, sort of a lag effect if you will.

 

Yup.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Thanks, pretty solid signal well in advance that the hemisphere was realigning its wave pattern. Our heat is now Europes problem. Summer is not over by a long shot but it appears to me that the trough wants to stick around even longer . I told Jerry Aug 12 but even that might be optimistic. 

 

Not that anyone asked, the extended ensemble means from the GFS cluster are showing a rather robust NAO recovery of some 1.5+ standard deviations toward the 10th of August, taking the index from solid negative to positive domain change.  Curious what the Euro numbers look like but both CDC and CPC show this.   I have seen things do this in the past, where there is an emerging signal for cool or warm departures, and the operational version et al resist at first.  It's almost like their is a toleration threshold then they go all at once.  Could see the trough hold on too long in the E as we near and exceed the 10th of the month -- particularly in the GGEM and Euro; they'll hate the change until it is D4 or 5 out.  

 

I don't buy that steep of a geopotential medium into and through eastern Ontario on the oper. Euro, followed by big autumn polar high ...this being for days 8+.  I've seen that uber played by that model too often this warm season to trust that.  By D9 and 10, already modest negative anomalies have re-introduced into the skies over Greenland and the D. Straight areas, perhaps a nod toward the GFS family's notion of raising the NAO domain -- well, if so, lagging heights looks suspiciously like the Euro bias. 

 

But I don't think it very likely that we see ...what was it, 7 days in a row of 90+ weather at some sites; at least 6 at others.   For that alone, in a "spatial" sort of sense of it, we may have turned the seasonal corner.  We'll have to see how that mid August signal emerges.    

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Not that anyone asked, the extended ensemble means from the GFS cluster are showing a rather robust NAO recovery of some 1.5+ standard deviations toward the 10th of August, taking the index from solid negative to positive domain change.  Curious what the Euro numbers look like but both CDC and CPC show this.   I have seen things do this in the past, where there is an emerging signal for cool or warm departures, and the operational version et al resist at first.  It's almost like their is a toleration threshold then they go all at once.  Could see the trough hold on too long in the E as we near and exceed the 10th of the month -- particularly in the GGEM and Euro; they'll hate the change until it is D4 or 5 out.  

 

I don't buy that steep of a geopotential medium into and through eastern Ontario on the oper. Euro, followed by big autumn polar high ...this being for days 8+.  I've seen that uber played by that model too often this warm season to trust that.  By D9 and 10, already modest negative anomalies have re-introduced into the skies over Greenland and the D. Straight areas, perhaps a nod toward the GFS family's notion of raising the NAO domain -- well, if so, lagging heights looks suspiciously like the Euro bias. 

 

But I don't think it very likely that we see ...what was it, 7 days in a row of 90+ weather at some sites; at least 6 at others.   For that alone, in a "spatial" sort of sense of it, we may have turned the seasonal corner.  We'll have to see how that mid August signal emerges.    

Yeah there's plenty of model signals now of a return to swamp dews and wet sheets past about Aug 11-12..It's coming for an extended stay..just a matter of timing it's arrival

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Yeah there's plenty of model signals now of a return to swamp dews and wet sheets past about Aug 11-12..It's coming for an extended stay..just a matter of timing it's arrival

No doubt it comes back...it's August after all.

But prove to us you aren't wishcasting and discuss some of these "plenty of model signals" (aside from paraphrasing Tip) that show an extended period of high dews and heat? I'm not sure there is any support for "extended stay" of that type of weather, though we know that's usually just a phrase added to help the hype.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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No doubt it comes back...it's August after all.

But prove to us you aren't wishcasting and discuss some of these "plenty of model signals" (aside from paraphrasing Tip) that show an extended period of high dews and heat? I'm not sure there is any support for "extended stay" of that type of weather, though we know that's usually just a phrase added to help the hype.

 

 

An extended stay of high dews becomes less and less likely after mid August...we get them, but they aren't extended stay. Summer is dying on the Euro ensembles...there isn't any sign of anything resembling earlier this summer. If we get little bouts of high dews, they would be because a low passes just to our NW and we briefly get southerly flow or warm sector, but then FROPA right behind it...rinse and repeat. That's what the Euro ensembles show right now...basically persistent trough over us.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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An extended stay of high dews becomes less and less likely after mid August...we get them, but they aren't extended stay. Summer is dying on the Euro ensembles...there isn't any sign of anything resembling earlier this summer. If we get little bouts of high dews, they would be because a low passes just to our NW and we briefly get southerly flow or warm sector, but then FROPA right behind it...rinse and repeat. That's what the Euro ensembles show right now...basically persistent trough over us.

Yeah it gets harder and harder to keep a sustained southerly flow over the region as we go deeper into the summer. There's no doubt the dews come back, but like you said its probably a 1-2 day event ahead of a short-wave or frontal system.

I assume he just says "extended stay" as a hyping or trolling mechanism, but was curious if he had any other reasoning for why we might see like a week or more straight of high dews. When Ginxy made his call he backed it up with maps and progs, so maybe Blizz has something up his sleeve.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Yeah it gets harder and harder to keep a sustained southerly flow over the region as we go deeper into the summer. There's no doubt the dews come back, but like you said its probably a 1-2 day event ahead of a short-wave or frontal system.

I assume he just says "extended stay" as a hyping or trolling mechanism, but was curious if he had any other reasoning for why we might see like a week or more straight of high dews. When Ginxy made his call he backed it up with maps and progs, so maybe Blizz has something up his sleeve.

 

Magic tricks.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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Heading down to my old stomping grounds in New London this weekend.  Seven of my 8 siblings with families in tow will be there.  Could get ugly.  We always go down for the weekend of the Kelly Road Race held at Ocean Beach, and several of us run it.  Several of us also say "next year I'm going to do it".   Any weenies going to be there?

 

Also, the bridge of flowers 10k race in Selburne is next Saturday.  Great race with the worst hill in NE road racing (outside of the Mt. Washington race) at mile 2.  Hope to see some of you folks there.  Not all of you folks, mind you.  Just some of you.  :)

 

www.bridgeofflowers10k.com

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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An extended stay of high dews becomes less and less likely after mid August...we get them, but they aren't extended stay. Summer is dying on the Euro ensembles...there isn't any sign of anything resembling earlier this summer. If we get little bouts of high dews, they would be because a low passes just to our NW and we briefly get southerly flow or warm sector, but then FROPA right behind it...rinse and repeat. That's what the Euro ensembles show right now...basically persistent trough over us.

And the Euro ens have been bad this summer. they missed the hottest July ever..In fact they had a trough over us when we had the 7 day heat wave and ORH hit 90 + 4 days in a row lol.. We don't have much faith in those things anymore.

 

The GEFS do show the warmth/dews coming back,,and they had a great July

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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And the Euro ens have been bad this summer. they missed the hottest July ever..In fact they had a trough over us when we had the 7 day heat wave and ORH hit 90 + 4 days in a row lol.. We don't have much faith in those things anymore.

 

The GEFS do show the warmth/dews coming back,,and they had a great July

 

Is there an emoticon with a fork being stuck in the summer??

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grinch1989

grinch1989

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Heading down to my old stomping grounds in New London this weekend.  Seven of my 8 siblings with families in tow will be there.  Could get ugly.  We always go down for the weekend of the Kelly Road Race held at Ocean Beach, and several of us run it.  Several of us also say "next year I'm going to do it".   Any weenies going to be there?

 

Also, the bridge of flowers 10k race in Selburne is next Saturday.  Great race with the worst hill in NE road racing (outside of the Mt. Washington race) at mile 2.  Hope to see some of you folks there.  Not all of you folks, mind you.  Just some of you.  :)

 

www.bridgeofflowers10k.com

Best beach in CT no doubt...we love taking the kids there once or twice a summer.  Good luck running!

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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And the Euro ens have been bad this summer. they missed the hottest July ever..In fact they had a trough over us when we had the 7 day heat wave and ORH hit 90 + 4 days in a row lol.. We don't have much faith in those things anymore.

 

The GEFS do show the warmth/dews coming back,,and they had a great July

 

No they don't.  Other than a brief low going west with a period of srly winds before a fropa (which all models show), it's still AOB overall. 

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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Heading down to my old stomping grounds in New London this weekend.  Seven of my 8 siblings with families in tow will be there.  Could get ugly.  We always go down for the weekend of the Kelly Road Race held at Ocean Beach, and several of us run it.  Several of us also say "next year I'm going to do it".   Any weenies going to be there?

 

Also, the bridge of flowers 10k race in Selburne is next Saturday.  Great race with the worst hill in NE road racing (outside of the Mt. Washington race) at mile 2.  Hope to see some of you folks there.  Not all of you folks, mind you.  Just some of you.  :)

 

www.bridgeofflowers10k.com

I'm heading out to Colchester to AM to grab my daughter from the rentals.  Probably be there by 9am.

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