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Pattern change lurking, discuss the upcoming weather banter and all


Ginx snewx

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either one would be different from what's happening now. lol

 

that's a change.

 

lol.  Its sort of like in the winter, when the prevailing pattern and flow changes, but it still doesn't get cold or snow... then you have folks arguing the pattern changed while others say it didn't because the overall net result didn't really change. 

 

A lot of folks seem to be looking at a "pattern change" as something that goes from +10 departures to -10 departures...

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lol.  Its sort of like in the winter, when the prevailing pattern and flow changes, but it still doesn't get cold or snow... then you have folks arguing the pattern changed while others say it didn't because the overall net result didn't really change. 

 

A lot of folks seem to be looking at a "pattern change" as something that goes from +10 departures to -10 departures...

 

 

Even worse, if it doesn't snow, its always the "same ol' same ol" pattern. Remember this past January when everyone was complaining about how it was torching and we weren't getting arctic cold? Then we flipped to arctic cold the final 10 days of January and first week of February only to still have very little snow (outside of the Cape) and everyone complained that the pattern was the "same ol same ol" even though temps were about 15-20 degrees colder.

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Ok you guys are right. Major pattern change next week. Everyone will be looking forward to dry cool NW flow . The WAR overhead now is somehow being equated to dry NW flow. Big changes coming. Big changes

NW flow isn't usually cold in summer because we don't have strong enough CAA from frontal passages to compensate for the compressional heating on the coastal plain from downsloping off the Appalachians. During the height of the warm season, NW flow often brings the warmest temperatures with the compressional warming and increased heating potential of a drier airmass. We're going to see this later this week where dewpoints might be a little lower but temperatures will soar as WNW flow ahead of the front causes both downsloping and less humidity, both of which warm the lower atmosphere further.

 

You should know that the cool wind directions in the summer are the ones with an onshore component, anything from SE to NNE. NE flow is probably the coolest for most of New England, especially when it's accompanied by cloud cover or rain. That's how you average below normal in the summer, not with NW flow as the jet stream is not active in the same way as the winter so NW flow is often continental heat coming "over the top" of a ridge with compression rather than active cold air advection.

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Ok you guys are right. Major pattern change next week. Everyone will be looking forward to dry cool NW flow . The WAR overhead now is somehow being equated to dry NW flow. Big changes coming. Big changes

 

Who said that?  We have NW flow *right now*... check the streamlines.

 

You again seem to be looking at a pattern change in terms of drastic changes to sensible weather... the pattern can be different and still be warm/humid in July (the warmest time of the year), you know that right? 

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NW flow isn't usually cold in summer because we don't have strong enough CAA from frontal passages to compensate for the compressional heating on the coastal plain from downsloping off the Appalachians. During the height of the warm season, NW flow often brings the warmest temperatures with the compressional warming and increased heating potential of a drier airmass. We're going to see this later this week where dewpoints might be a little lower but temperatures will soar as WNW flow ahead of the front causes both downsloping and less humidity, both of which warm the lower atmosphere further.

 

You should know that the cool wind directions in the summer are the ones with an onshore component, anything from SE to NNE. NE flow is probably the coolest for most of New England, especially when it's accompanied by cloud cover or rain. That's how you average below normal in the summer, not with NW flow as the jet stream is not active in the same way as the winter so NW flow is often continental heat coming "over the top" of a ridge with compression rather than active cold air advection.

 

 

Please don't cloud this thread with science.

 

Its July.  The warmest time of the year.  It isn't going to get cold all the sudden even if the pattern changes.  Dry cold NW flow is for the fall... this time of year we just bake.

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It seems the discussion is confusing "pattern change" with "changing sensible weather"?

 

The pattern can persist while cycling through sensible weather changes... 

 

I don't see a lot of evidence in the various product for changing the overall construct to the circulation system over the next two weeks, but I do see opportunities to cycle through air mass changes during that time.  

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It seems the discussion is confusing "pattern change" with "changing sensible weather"?

 

The pattern can persist while cycling through sensible weather changes... 

 

I don't see a lot of evidence in the various product for changing the overall construct to the circulation system over the next two weeks, but I do see opportunities to cycle through air mass changes during that time.  

 

That's the change, Tip. 

 

For three weeks we weren't even "cycling through air mass changes".... there was no change at all in airmass for like 3 weeks.  That's how it was able to rain literally every afternoon at 3pm for 17 days straight up here.

 

Now we are starting to see changes that will allow for some mix-up of air mass from time to time.

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That's the change, Tip. 

 

For three weeks we weren't even "cycling through air mass changes".... there was no change at all in airmass for like 3 weeks.  That's how it was able to rain literally every afternoon at 3pm for 17 days straight up here.

 

Now we are starting to see changes that will allow for some mix-up of air mass from time to time.

 

 

Ah, disagree there.  In the last 3.5 weeks we have had 3 heat waves (including this one) with distinct recession in temperatures in between.   That's in the books. 

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shhhhh...it's ok. it's ok. you just need to say you're sorry to ginxy for being so rude. 

 

change we can believe in. 

 

 

I'm surprised he would be so rude to someone he considers a friend. Lots of hurtful posts on here.

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It seems the discussion is confusing "pattern change" with "changing sensible weather"?

 

The pattern can persist while cycling through sensible weather changes... 

 

I don't see a lot of evidence in the various product for changing the overall construct to the circulation system over the next two weeks, but I do see opportunities to cycle through air mass changes during that time.  

 

 

Ah, disagree there.  In the last 3.5 weeks we have had 3 heat waves (including this one) with distinct recession in temperatures in between.   That's in the books. 

Don't you dare bring realism or reality to this dry,cooling pattern change that is being promised. Don't you dare

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Ah, disagree there.  In the last 3.5 weeks we have had 3 heat waves (including this one) with distinct recession in temperatures in between.   That's in the books. 

 

Agree to disagree then :) 

 

Maybe it was just the wet pattern but IMO we've already started to change.  It rained here for 17 days straight and almost 50 out of 60 days.  Something has changed because it hasn't rained in days, haha.  Now its hot but dews have been low 60s which is a huge change from three weeks of near 70F dews.

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It's disappointing he's been so angry lately. Ever since his funnel cloud turned out to be scud he's been challenging to deal with. 

i just think it's terrible his friend is trying to express his ideas and thoughts...and just gets so abruptly challenged. certainly not what i'd expect from a friend.

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