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July high heat WX disco


CapturedNature

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Don't see 95F on a N wind often, but here we are.

 

HVN SA 1753 AO2A 65 SCT 10+ 204/95/65/0105/

It did this on May 25th, I think it was 2010... The highs were in the mid to upper 90s on a N wind.  Then, MCS came down from the NNW later in the evening.   

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Who was it that had 100F at BDL yesterday or today? Ouch. MOS munching FTL.

 

 

You'd think that MOS would somehow have enough thermodynamics/physics in it to know that Tolland lapse rates are only a theoretical concept and not reality.

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There are absolutely no support for temperatures near 100° yesterday.

 

In fact, I went with 94°F (for average high of DXR/MMK/IJD/BDL) with my 9 a.m. forecast. MOS guidance had 95°F at MMK from 06z Monday and higher numbers, I'm sure for BDL.

 

Yesterday's inland CT highs:
DXR: 91°F

MMK: 93°F

IJD: 92°F

BDL: 94°F

Avg: 92°F, so I was actually 2°F too high. A far cry from the stations and forecasters screaming 95-100°F.

 

The 850mb temperature was about 17°C, which based off of my research yields an approximate high of 91° at DXR given the conditions observed. You can tack on about 2°F for stations like MMK/BDL. I saw no reason to go above the low to perhaps mid-90's for yesterday.

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People collectively in a tone of celebrating some kind of cooler edge to the day ... meanwhile, today has edged now to be the hotter of the last 3 for several interior sites in this heat wave.  

 

Btw, ORH is now 89 ; I think they have a decent shot at putting up a 90 on the 6-hourlies.

 

Still, I think the ownership of any bias should really go to the MOS, which has routinely busted too warm during all three of these heat waves thus far. 

 

Scott and I were discussing the WAR [probable] correlation there - 

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scooter

Blue Hill does it too for their manual observations. When I observed there (and still observe on occasion) it caught me by surprise but it was cool to learn and actually put to use. This was their 1:00 PM EST observation in SA code:

 

BHO SA 1755 50 SCT 80 SCT 30 205/89/67/3209/014/ FEW MDT CU AND CUFRA

ALQDS ACCG DSNT S THN K LYR DSNT ALQDS HAZY WND 29V35/ 8/260 58008 10090

20076

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