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July high heat WX disco


CapturedNature

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I'm sure you fine folks have hit on this but the NAM just went to plad on the heat for tomorrow.

 

KASH NAM MOS

 N/X 71 102 74 90 66 

 

That's ASH.   BOS is 101

 

Looks like 850mb is right around 20.5 to 21.5, which is right about 100 (in that model), but as Taunton has noted in recent AFDs, the mixing depth has been extending to 800mb in this, and that would support eclipsing the century mark, tomorrow.   Interesting.

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wow... ASH, FIT, BED, BOS....everyone at or over 100 in the NAM mos for tomorrow. 

 

not sure I buy it just yet...  though it's thermal fields may or may not support, they could also be overdone to begin with.  Have to look it over.

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wow... ASH, FIT, BED, BOS....everyone at or over 100 in the NAM mos for tomorrow. 

 

not sure I buy it just yet...  though it's thermal fields may or may not support, they could also be overdone to begin with.  Have to look it over.

Good luck on the century mark. BTW, you can keep that skanky high heat down there. LOL

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I'm sure you fine folks have hit on this but the NAM just went to plad on the heat for tomorrow.

 

KASH NAM MOS

 N/X 71 102 74 90 66 

 

That's ASH.   BOS is 101

 

Looks like 850mb is right around 20.5 to 21.5, which is right about 100 (in that model), but as Taunton has noted in recent AFDs, the mixing depth has been extending to 800mb in this, and that would support eclipsing the century mark, tomorrow.   Interesting.

Toasty, toasty. Seeing some 22C+ 850's, courtesy PSU E-Wall:

post-533-0-07416100-1374164463_thumb.gif

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Good luck on the century mark. BTW, you can keep that skanky high heat down there. LOL

 

 

The 00z Euro had the one day inferno at 850mb for tomorrow, too.  Huh - maybe that's the apex day in this lengthy run.   

 

Looking things over, looks like fropa is between 06z and 12z overnight Sat into Sun morning.   Prefrontal trough does time favorably for late saturday after and evening for some convection.   

 

Sunday is going to be a whole lot different.   NAM total 500mb thickness and 850mb still would allow mid 80s, but the DP will be in the 50s and just is going to feel a lot different if that happens.   Thankfully -- at this point I feel like one of those rotisserie chickens you get that groc. store. 

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Sea breeze is knocking.

Rising air has to be replaced (Boston Harbor) by something.

Last time I experienced 100F+ was back in the Service days 118F in Tucson Az. That was a dry heat.

I wish I could drive or walk a visit to the beach would be nice.

106F and humid two years ago late July in Baltimore... broke the all time temp record. That was an unbelievable day...
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I'm starting to think this is legit for tomorrow guys. 

 

KFIT was 94 at noon, today -- a full 2F higher than yesterday at the same hour, and they managed a 96 for a high there.  

 

KBED was 92 at noon, today -- a full 3F higher than yesterday at the same hour, and they managed a 94 for a high there.  

 

Bedford may get breezed here shortly so that would likely cap them, but for FIT and other interior places, with thermal fields a tick warmer than yesterday and current trends... 97 to 99 is quite doable today, and with DPs holding in the 67 to 70 range, HIs over a hundo should be pretty common for several hours.   We may have to wait for the 6-hourlies to see the absolute highs, but these sites should linger at 96 where not influenced by advancing sea-breeze.  

 

Tomorrow,  ...it can get even hotter!   All guidance now on the same page and adding a full 1 to 2C into the 850mb, in an air mass that has routinely been exceeding that sigma level as far as the mixing depth goes.  The standard adiabat from 800mb tomorrow would suppor 100-104 across the area, and that is precisely what the usually less dependable NAM MOS (MET) is indicating.   However, given to the other observed params/trends on-going and so forth, this may be one of those times to take that product seriously.   Even the MAV is now 99, 98 and 98 for BED, FIT and BOS respectively.  I'm willing to take the average and go with 100.  

 

Impressive.

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seabreeze passing 128 now. not a huge change behind hit...but certainly 80s near the shore...and a drop in the td

Yeah still damn hot when you reflect on it. Some summers we barely make a heat wave at BOS... this summer is a freak extreme. What an incredible week of heat. I can't remember the sky being this clear and this hot here for so long. No backdoor 1/4sm fog stratus of death backing over west in the harbor this summer. Mighty cap too. Shame no EML's. EML's are rare and one of the last times I saw a truly severe storm was an EML storm on June 1 2010 in Belmont. Tree toppling microburst when the core of the storm collapsed just previous to reaching the city.
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The downfall to 100 tomorrow is a more SW wind (but no real marine influence). Not an ideal downslope dandy of a wind, but it will get close perhaps..especially perhaps places further north where they can downslope off the ORH hills and Monads.

Tomorrow has a northeast MA and SNH torch look to it with WSW flow at H85... FIT/ASH/CON/LWM area is going to bake.

Hope Tip has multiple AC units aimed at his work station.

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If today is any semblance of the previous 4 than this SB is of short duration. Like clockwork the wind will shift back and the temp in turn will spike between 2-3. 

Tomorrow is looking like an UNBELIEVABLE WICKED SCORCHA! running out of words describing hot....LOL 

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