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July high heat WX disco


CapturedNature

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Probably. Friday looks like maybe a half degree warmer at 850.,,but its still sem-marginal. You can "ruin" it if you get too many clouds in the afternoon. I usually like to see solid +19 to +20C 850 temps for forecasting >90F at ORH.

I'd have to check to see the last time we had a 4 day heat wave in ORH...its been a long time I think. My guess would be 1950s, though perhaps the summer of '83 did it.

Thanks. Definitely let me know what you find. Awesome stuff.
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You started it!

nice. really mature. 

 

i'm just trying to bring some less-than-dubious meteorology back into the thread after you derailed it with all of your crazy non-pattern change talk.

 

anyhow...GFS does peak 850s at ~21C at CHH on Friday...so that obviously will easily be day what, 6 of 90F+ at BOS? maybe pushing 97 or 98 at logan? Saturday is the wildcard now. i'd imagine some mid-level debris from the ongoing MCS activity to our NW might be a limiting factor as box alluded to...plus stronger low level SW flow maybe trying to advect in somewhat marine-tainted air...but still probably near or pass 90F given a very warm start to the day etc.

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It should have been similar. You and them had similar amounts in the big storms.

Should have rephrased, Weymouth got probably 4-6 inches less on the year, which is pretty large for the small distance. There was storm in particular last year where the coastal set up in east Braintree just after Best Buy, which I've noticed is commonplace for a coastal front to stall before heading nw to the brookline area in marginal events. Anyway it went from 2-3 inches of snow to nothing over the course of maybe .25 miles

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cold. 

 

i don't really know. probably 60-ish. maybe if you catch the tide right it's a little warmer than that.

 

you'll get these days where people "swear it's 70!" but...nah. just cold.

PWM TV station said yesterday the ocean temp just off the coast there was 72, which is really warm for there. Of course, we've had heat with little wind, and the temp down a few meters might still be 58 for all I know. The Portland bouy has 68 this afternoon. Matinicus doesn't offer water temp, but their air temp is only 65, which says something about how warm the water is out there.

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I'm prone like any coastal community. I think overall I'll do a wee bit better for a couple of reasons. I'm a little higher than I was in Dorchester, A bit further inland when we have those easterly 2-3" glop storms, decent OES area, sneaky south of pike deals, and no urban heat island. Downfall is that we had a few storms where the coastal front set up in between weymouth and dorchester...but they still did great here. The ocean is about 1.5-1.8 miles or so to my north and northeast. There isn't any land to stop the wind as I'm one of the higher points away from the water so it should be good in a storm. My guess is we avg similar to where I used to live..give or take an inch or two.

 

You should rack up the totals in non marginal events like much of the south shore (not even considering you're decent elevation for proximity to the coastline)

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cold. 

 

i don't really know. probably 60-ish. maybe if you catch the tide right it's a little warmer than that.

 

you'll get these days where people "swear it's 70!" but...nah. just cold. 

I'll be out that way for about 10 days starting tomorrow evening!  It is amazing how much the water temperature can change from day to day on those ocean side beaches.  Some times big changes from morning to afternoon.  I've had many days when the posted sign says water temperature is 65 or 66 and after 5 minutes in the water you can't move your legs.  But, I love it there just the same.

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Probably. Friday looks like maybe a half degree warmer at 850.,,but its still sem-marginal. You can "ruin" it if you get too many clouds in the afternoon. I usually like to see solid +19 to +20C 850 temps for forecasting >90F at ORH.

 

I'd have to check to see the last time we had a 4 day heat wave in ORH...its been a long time I think. My guess would be 1950s, though perhaps the summer of '83 did it.

The last 10 4+ day heat waves @ ORH...

 

1993: 7/7-10

1991: 7/18-21

1988: 8/10-15

1988: 6/13-16

1984: 6/8-11

1970: 8/13-16

1963: 7/25-29

1953: 8/28-31

1949: 8/7-11

1949: 7/27-30

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Should have rephrased, Weymouth got probably 4-6 inches less on the year, which is pretty large for the small distance. There was storm in particular last year where the coastal set up in east Braintree just after Best Buy, which I've noticed is commonplace for a coastal front to stall before heading nw to the brookline area in marginal events. Anyway it went from 2-3 inches of snow to nothing over the course of maybe .25 miles

 

The storm on 12/29 and the 3/18 storm probably account for that. The 3/18 storm was a matter of the better banding setting up over BOS and down to you. However they eeked out a couple of inches extra in those Jan and early Feb fluff events that got Phil. You are in a good spot nestled up near the Blue Hills. I think I'll ok overall....proably better than where I was. Now watch me get screwed this year..lol.

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PWM TV station said yesterday the ocean temp just off the coast there was 72, which is really warm for there. Of course, we've had heat with little wind, and the temp down a few meters might still be 58 for all I know. The Portland bouy has 68 this afternoon. Matinicus doesn't offer water temp, but their air temp is only 65, which says something about how warm the water is out there.

Yeah Mass Bay was like 71F too. There's some upwelling that happens on the eastern side of the Cape that really makes it hard for that stretch from race point to CHH to warm much...and I think partially because of the shape and the very deep water just off of PVC.

I remember days as a kid swimming out there and thinking it was "warm" so maybe it's better than I think. But last week I know it was 59F at coast guard. Which is chilly.

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Thanks. Definitely let me know what you find. Awesome stuff.

 

 

August 10-15, 1988...6 in a row of 90+ at ORH...wow!

 

I didn't think that happened in August '88, but it did. For some reason that escaped my memory.

 

 

August 28-31, 1953 was a 4 day heatwave too. Very impressive considering the late date.

 

Other 4+ day heatwaves at ORH are July 27-30, 1949, August 7-11, 1949 (5 days!)...same summer too. July 18-21, 1991...I had thought this was a 3 day heatwave, but it actually was 4 days. It was the only heatwave at all (3+ days >90F) at ORH since that time until we got the 3 day heatwave in July 2011.

 

All the others are before the airport site like in the 1930s, though I bet we could have done it on a few of them. So the total 4+ day heatwaves I have at the current site are:

 

July 18-21, 1991

August 10-15, 1988

August 28-31, 1953

August 7-11, 1949

July 27-30, 1949

 

I may have missed on but I'm pretty sure I got all of them.

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I don't think anywhere in CT has even verified the Heat Advisory criteria yet this week...  (100+ HI for 2 hours)

 

I noticed this too -

 

I think, though, upon reading the AFDs, it seems it may not be absolutely necessary to actually verify the digits.  They've stuck in qualifiers such as, "Approaching", and "Feeling close enough."   

 

Still, tomorrow does have a chance at being a tick or two warmer on the temp gauge, so if it is 97 and DPs stay at 68, that'll do the the trick.  12z Euro had a slightly warmer pocket of 850mb air coming over during the day.  

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I don't think anywhere in CT has even verified the Heat Advisory criteria yet this week...  (100+ HI for 2 hours)

GON did yesterday late in the afternoon, but they were not under any headlines, so a bust in the other direction. No one has reached warning criteria yet I don't believe, so those have all busted.

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