CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 The ridge is beat down, replaced by a trough with a mega ridge developing out west. If that isn't a change, I don't know what is. Nobody ever said cold polar air moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 If the euro is right, the front is well south and you have a lot of onshore flow. Not the driest wind direction, but probably comfortable temps. how far south on the front and do the waves of LP get us any rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 how far south on the front and do the waves of LP get us any rain? starts to return north as a warm front tuesday PM...low eventually moves right through NE with some rain on wednesday/thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 It doesn't look far off from the ensembles. It gets warmer and more humid late next week as the airmass is stagnant and we await the next trough moving in by the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 I find it LOL that you don't. It's a change, numerous mets spelled it out. Numerous Mets spelled out nothing -- I gave reasoning, they gave disagreement - fact, and motivated in no small part on the fact that they represent a collective bias to favor cooler regimes, and it affects their objectivity. The NAO domain is not changing appreciably enough to warrant a permanent suppression along the East Seaboard with regard to the latitude of the westerlies. Until that happens, the baser canvas pattern has not changed, and it is far more likely it is merely a relaxation interval. And it is an untrue argument that the NAO doesn't modulate NE's circulation in the summer, if you are thinking about coming back with that. But you won't read that, or read it the right way. Think what you want to think ...fine. And, for the record, I never said it was NOT a pattern change... If you bother to take your head out of your ass and stop trying to be subversively disrespectful and insulting (within the confines of Forum decorum). I said proceed with caution. All this contrarian agenda over merely saying proceed with caution and here's why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 A temporary 1-2 day break and then back to wet, moist etc Isnt a sustainable change. I just outlined my thoughts and I didn't say anything like that. Please re -read and if you have a question please do not hesitate to ask. Thank you Word. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 It doesn't look far off from the ensembles. It gets warmer and more humid late next week as the airmass is stagnant and we await the next trough moving in by the weekend. I would take this Euro run...we actually get some showery cool weather in middle of next week before a return to more normal temps at the end of the week with another front about to move in. The biggest change we see vs the first half of this month is low height anomalies over SE Canada vs the well above avg height anomalies we've seen. That will help get fronts south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Numerous Mets spelled out nothing -- I gave reasoning, they gave disagreement - fact, and motivated in no small part on the fact that they represent a collective bias to favor cooler regimes, and it affects their objectivity. The NAO domain is not changing appreciably enough to warrant a permanent suppression along the East Seaboard with regard to the latitude of the westerlies. Until that happens, the baser canvas pattern has not changed, and it is far more likely it is merely a relaxation interval. And it is an untrue argument that the NAO doesn't modulate NE's circulation in the summer, if you are thinking about coming back with that. But you won't read that, or read it the right way. Think what you want to think ...fine. And, for the record, I never said it was NOT a pattern change... If you bother to take your head out of your ass and stop trying to be subversively disrespectful and insulting (within the confines of Forum decorum). I said proceed with caution. All this contrarian agenda over merely saying proceed with caution and here's why? You missed the entire point as Will stated. You are on a time scale much larger than mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 BOS appears to have topped out at 94. Down to 88 with 070 breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Oh yeah, and the flow aloft is not moving from east to west next week. But, I guess that doesn't matter either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Who cares what the NAO is doing? The whole height regime has changed over Canada and the US. Look at the height anomalies. Could the ridge come back? Of course, but not anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 I would take this Euro run...we actually get some showery cool weather in middle of next week before a return to more normal temps at the end of the week with another front about to move in. The biggest change we see vs the first half of this month is low height anomalies over SE Canada vs the well above avg height anomalies we've seen. That will help get fronts south of us. Look I am not into getting into pissing matches but when I posted the same thing on July 1th there were lots of skeptics but you agreed with me back then. Its a change and of course that does not mean summer disappears it just means things are moving again, more frequent fronts and less stagnation. The other factor: high heat days and heat waves are non entities for the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Look I am not into getting into pissing matches but when I posted the same thing on July 1th there were lots of skeptics but you agreed with me back then. Its a change and of course that does not mean summer disappears it just means things are moving again, more frequent fronts and less stagnation. The other factor: high heat days and heat waves are non entities for the near future. That's all we've been saying for the last few days. I guess this isn't a regime change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 You missed the entire point as Will stated. You are on a time scale much larger than mine. So how can you laugh at my argument regarding a pattern change when it was Will and I that came to that conclusion? Stop trying to debase me dude. I didn't MISS any point; we (Will and I) came to the conclusion, mutually, that we were talking about two different time periods. All I said was that at small time scales, oscillations in the field may appear to be a pattern change, but may won't hold up out in time; proceed with caution. That is purely objective and you and Phil have been running around on the heels of everything I post nicking and trying to erode the value of that truth. Just stop. I'm getting to where I can't trust you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 The heat is just as high in this thread is it is outdoors.................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 So how can you laugh at my argument regarding a pattern change when it was Will and I that came to that conclusion? Stop trying to debase me dude. I didn't MISS any point; we (Will and I) came to the conclusion, mutually, that we were talking about two different time periods. All I said was that at small time scales, oscillations in the field may appear to be a pattern change, but may won't hold up out in time; proceed with caution. That is purely objective and you and Phil have been running around on the heels of everything I post nicking and trying to erode the value of that truth. Just stop. I'm getting to where I can't trust you. I think you are backtracking a bit, but that's fine. My point all along has been that it's a change. Period. Can it come back, of course...but it's a change. You seem that it's only some sort of oscillatory issue and I'm not sure I agree. It's fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 So how can you laugh at my argument regarding a pattern change when it was Will and I that came to that conclusion? Stop trying to debase me dude. I didn't MISS any point; we (Will and I) came to the conclusion, mutually, that we were talking about two different time periods. All I said was that at small time scales, oscillations in the field may appear to be a pattern change, but may won't hold up out in time; proceed with caution. That is purely objective and you and Phil have been running around on the heels of everything I post nicking and trying to erode the value of that truth. Just stop. I'm getting to where I can't trust you. i don't know why you have to keep calling it a pattern change when it's clearly not a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 So you aren't arguing that it is not a pattern change? You seem pretty passionate about this not being a pattern change...but there's no need for emotions in weather, only in WAR. Nah, no passion. I never said it was not a pattern change. Not sure what is so complicated and you don't get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 What a special, special summer we are living thru. Once in a lifetime for something like this. BDL hasn't been above 95 degrees all summer, lol. Record humidity though, that much is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 I think you are backtracking a bit, but that's fine. My point all along has been that it's a change. Period. Can it come back, of course...but it's a change. You seem that it's only some sort of oscillatory issue and I'm not sure I agree. It's fine. No way! You never read what I said objectively, period. It's not a change if you are in a 40-day period and that oscillates/sloshes the same way. Real, profound pattern changes requires the kind of paradigm shift that doesn't return to the same base-line state -- next week is too soon to see if that is the case. This is basic synoptic Met. I learned this in college, in FAST. I I'm done... if you don't know this, you have no excuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 ORH dropped back to 88F at 19z...the 6 hour high through 18z was 89F, so I don't think they hit 90F though it spossible they did before it snuck back down to 88F in that one hour. We'll see if they do at 4pm. Today's wind direction is tougher for ORH to hit 90F on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Friday looks like the best shot here to break the 90F threshold, So far this week, We have been able to muster a high of 89F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 No way! You never read what I said objectively, period. So basically you are saying this is one small oscillation in a sea of WAR? In winter, you could have a two week period of colder wx amid a torch winter and I would still consider it a change. I guess we're just coming at it from different angles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 i don't know why you have to keep calling it a pattern change when it's clearly not a pattern change. i don't know why you have to keep posting when you contribute pretty much no Meteorological insight, and when you do, it's dubious and used as point of aversarial content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 i don't know why you have to keep posting when you contribute pretty much no Meteorological insight, and when you do, it's dubious and used as point of aversarial content. i just hide in the bushes waiting for you to saying something foolish...and then pounce. doesn't take long. edit: that's not a word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Alright alright. This is what happens when summer is as boring as this one. It's all good. No harm no foul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Alright alright. This is what happens when summer is as boring as this one. It's all good. No harm no foul. some people just can't handle banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 I heard months and months of high dews until November....Maybe just month and month? lol Meanwhile, still waiting for my first 90° reading this heatwave. My temp has been hovering at 88° for several hours but we have several more hours and days to go. lol, yeah up to 89 now here, could be very close to 90 today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 So basically you are saying this is one small oscillation in a sea of WAR? In winter, you could have a two week period of colder wx amid a torch winter and I would still consider it a change. I guess we're just coming at it from different angles. Yup, and more importantly, it is too soon to know that is relaxation or more profounder of a change for next week. As I told Will, I agree that it is a short duration alteration that will have a decent effect on the sensible weather. But for now, that is all. What happens if the 00z runs come out tonight showing a new WAR node getting ready to do the same old thing? Pattern change? that's tough to swallow. I don't know that it won't. It seems there is a reticence to accept that a given pattern can often have internal oscillations that don't reflect a governing regime change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 It's been a hot day "On the hill" lol http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KCTMANCH3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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