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July high heat WX disco

CapturedNature

By CapturedNature,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

i don't know how it can't be considered a "pattern change" 

 

we will go from record high heights over the OV to a mean trough position in that exact location. 

 

 

Agreed. The WAR also gets kicked about 1000 miles northeast.

 

 

Maybe I just disagree with Tip on what a "pattern change" is. If the heights are totally different for 7-10 days than previosuly, I think it qualifies. If we're talking about some 30 day regime, then it remains to be seen if we have changed, but that is pure speculation at this point. The shorterm will definitely be different both in temrs of sensible wx and height anomalies over North America.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I don't see this pattern returning. Sure it will get humid possibly later next week, but nothing like this. It's not the same.

 

No no no.

 

Look... some folks are clearing confusing sensible weather difference to pattern changes.  I explained this yesterday, and no one seemed to want to consider it, just argue. 

 

Okay, believe what you guys want, but the PATTERN that we are in, allows for these sensible weather differentials over periods...and that overall behavior has persisted for over 3 weeks now. 

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
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No no no.

 

Look... some folks are clearing confusing sensible weather difference to pattern changes.  I explained this yesterday, and no one seemed to want to consider it, just argue. 

 

Okay, believe what you guys want, but the PATTERN that we are in, allows for these sensible weather differentials over periods...and that overall behavior has persisted for over 3 weeks now. 

well that's weather. lol. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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Agreed. The WAR also gets kicked about 1000 miles northeast.

 

 

Maybe I just disagree with Tip on what a "pattern change" is. If the heights are totally different for 7-10 days than previosuly, I think it qualifies. If we're talking about some 30 day regime, then it remains to be seen if we have changed, but that is pure speculation at this point. The shorterm will definitely be different both in temrs of sensible wx and height anomalies over North America.

 

If one wants to objectively consider a pattern change, they'd have to.  "Patterns" warble around within a persisting paradigm.  Some folks are latching onto these intermediate time-scale warbles as though they are the whole story.   

 

So, you don't think that the WAR will not re-assert it self ?  The model trends did not all pick up the WAR retrogrades when at a week's vision before.

 

You think it gets shunted S and finally, ...at long last, this time it will stick... ? 

 

Okay, then in your estimation, the pattern has changed profoundly enough to really be a break-down and new construct emerging..   We'll see. I'm not arguing that possibility, I'm just saying proceed with caution there. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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No no no.

 

Look... some folks are clearing confusing sensible weather difference to pattern changes.  I explained this yesterday, and no one seemed to want to consider it, just argue. 

 

Okay, believe what you guys want, but the PATTERN that we are in, allows for these sensible weather differentials over periods...and that overall behavior has persisted for over 3 weeks now. 

 

It's only allowed for brief 1-2 day cooldowns though. We will have 3-4 days possibly of cooler and drier weather before any return to more humid weather, but it remains to be seen how it transpires because we could have fronts stuck over and south of us which keeps us cooler, but wet. These last few weeks have been pretty dry for eastern MA. If the models are right, it's a different pattern completely with troughing overhead. Does it mean 72/50...probably not, but I don't see a return to hot and dry weather like we've had.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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So, all in all, I'm a bit more confident at staying the course and figuring that we get a couple of days of reprieve and then either the WAR rolls on back again, or the heights just stay N to some smaller anomaly, but enough to get some kind of heat back in.

So if it cools off for a week but warms back up afterwards to some degree (regardless of how we get there, be it the WAR or heights staying to the north) then it can't be a pattern change because the end sensible result is more heat eventually getting back into the area?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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It's only allowed for brief 1-2 day cooldowns though. We will have 3-4 days possibly of cooler and drier weather before any return to more humid weather, but it remains to be seen how it transpires because we could have fronts stuck over and south of us which keeps us cooler, but wet. These last few weeks have been pretty dry for eastern MA. If the models are right, it's a different pattern completely with troughing overhead. Does it mean 72/50...probably not, but I don't see a return to hot and dry weather like we've had.

 

one day, two day..three day, whatever -- there's no prerequisite time span.  

 

that's why objective Mets always put " ~ " in their discussions.   If the temps and DPs scale back for 5 days next week, and then the WAR returns ?    

 

same pattern guys.  Deal with it. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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So if it cools off for a week but warms back up afterwards to some degree (regardless of how we get there, be it the WAR or heights staying to the north) then it can't be a pattern change because the end sensible result is more heat eventually getting back into the area?

 

Not necessarily.   But no one ever said this:  "...So if it cools off for a week but warms back up afterwards to some degree (regardless of how we get there, be it the WAR or heights staying to the north) then it can't be a pattern change.."    Where's that coming from?

 

Patterns can make small intermediate scaled alterations/oscillations, while persisting in a general theme over larger spatial-temporal regimes.  Those smaller "wobbles" in the mass fields can certainly have a larger sensible impact.     

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Posted

If one wants to objectively consider a pattern change, they'd have to.  "Patterns" warble around within a persisting paradigm.  Some folks are latching onto these intermediate time-scale warbles as though they are the whole story.   

 

So, you don't think that the WAR will not re-assert it self ?  The model trends did not all pick up the WAR retrogrades when at a week's vision before.

 

You think it gets shunted S and finally, ...at long last, this time it will stick... ? 

 

Okay, then in your estimation, the pattern has changed profoundly enough to really be a break-down and new construct emerging..   We'll see. I'm not arguing that possibility, I'm just saying proceed with caution there. 

 

 

The WAR coming back at some point is actually very likely...that is simple climo between now and late August/early September. But if it is out fo the picture or diminished for 10-14 days, then I consider it a pattern change. To me, its like saying the PV was stuck in SE Canada giving us cold in winter...if it goes for 10-14 days and then comes back, I will say we had a pattern change, but then reloaded. If it simply relaxed for 3 days, I would probably not call that a pattern change.

 

There's an awful lot of semantics and subjective interpretation, but for me, if we get a 1-2 week long period where the height anomalies are drastically different than the first half of July, then I'm OK with calling it a pattern change.

 

The WAR will return at some point, its still summer for 6-8 weeks.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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Well, in any event ...good debate guys. 

 

It will be interesting to see how this all drops out. 

 

I will also say that I am a bit concerned for modeling dependability as we wrap up the warm season in another month and really start seasonal declining.  I am wondering if these trough-happy models raise hopes for cooler time's prematurely.  

 

Also, WOW at the GFS MOS from 12z!   What's scary about these numbers is that it has been kicking NAM ass for days in this, as the NAM has been warm biased and the MAV has been doing not so bad... Now, they've reversed, with the NAM coming in lower than the MAV.  Here's KFIT:

 

N/X 71 96 71 98 73 - See more at: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/mos-data#sthash.EtmxtNLm.dpuf

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

one day, two day..three day, whatever -- there's no prerequisite time span.  

 

that's why objective Mets always put " ~ " in their discussions.   If the temps and DPs scale back for 5 days next week, and then the WAR returns ?    

 

same pattern guys.  Deal with it. 

nice tone. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

The WAR coming back at some point is actually very likely...that is simple climo between now and late August/early September. But if it is out fo the picture or diminished for 10-14 days, then I consider it a pattern change. To me, its like saying the PV was stuck in SE Canada giving us cold in winter...if it goes for 10-14 days and then comes back, I will say we had a pattern change, but then reloaded. If it simply relaxed for 3 days, I would probably not call that a pattern change.

 

There's an awful lot of semantics and subjective interpretation, but for me, if we get a 1-2 week long period where the height anomalies are drastically different than the first half of July, then I'm OK with calling it a pattern change.

 

The WAR will return at some point, its still summer for 6-8 weeks.

 

 

Ah, I don't buy this at all. --- then your saying what's the point, actually, whether you realize it or not; because this statement of your is

obfuscating the "pattern" and burying into the background seasonal expectation.   Sorry, there is an identifiable pattern here.

 

And I do not believe I am being as subjective, as in an "awful lot of".  In fact, urging proceeding with caution after flagging numerous facts, is tantamount to objectivity. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

one day, two day..three day, whatever -- there's no prerequisite time span.  

 

that's why objective Mets always put " ~ " in their discussions.   If the temps and DPs scale back for 5 days next week, and then the WAR returns ?    

 

same pattern guys.  Deal with it. 

 

Of course warm to hot weather will return at some point, but if we go 7 days or maybe 10 days of lower height anomalies in the northeast, cooler temps, and perhaps some rainy periods, I think it qualifies as a change. Who knows about August, I'm not saying expect a cool August...but starting Sunday...we will definitely get a break from this nonsense. Temps in the 80s with some humidity is normal summer weather, I wouldn't consider it the same regime as what we have experienced. 

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