on_wx Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 From the Weather Network: http://s.theweathernetwork.com//thumb?src=//s.theweathernetwork.com/images/12/PRHighRisk-9320.jpg&w=690&scale=0&crop=0 Latest SWD from the Environment Canada Prairie Storm Prediction Centre: DISCUSSION...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLY INCLUDING ONE OR MORE TORNADOES EXPECTED ACROSS SRN SK TODAY. http://kamala.cod.edu/Canada/latest.focn45.CWWG.html Large Tornado Watch in place for central and southeastern Saksatchewan including the largest cities in the province: Regina, Saskatoon, Moose Jaw, Estevan, Yorkton, and Weyburn. http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=sk Keep track of the latest info including live updates from chasers using #skstorm https://twitter.com/ Small range scans of Canadian radar including BV from Wunderground: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=XBE&type=C0R The Greg Johnson TornadoHunter.com crew with live video http://www.tornadohunter.com/ You can use Glasgow, MT and Minot, ND radar to see storms in srn SK. Canadian place/shape files for GR: http://www.vaughanweather.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 15, 2013 Author Share Posted July 15, 2013 Updated outlook for the Prairies. I'd estimate nearly 120,000 sq miles of SK is under a tornado watch. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT MONDAY JULY 15 2013. WATCHES/WARNINGS/STATEMENTS...GALE WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF ERN HUDSON BAY. TORNADO WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. RAINFALL WARNING FOR EDMONTON AND AREAS WEST. DISCUSSION...A VERY FAVOURABLE SET UP FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS SRN SK TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING FROM SRN AB AND WILL BE NEAR CYXE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. SAT PICURE SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD OVER SERN SK AND GGW TEPHI SHOWS MOISTURE UP TO 925 MB. 12Z UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH FROM NRN AB INTO SRN BC. WV SAT SHOWS A STRONG VORT MAX OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS NW OF YYC MOVING NEWD THRU SOUTHERN AB. PROGGED LI VALUES WILL BE NEAR -10 IN SRN SK WITH SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG. STRONG SHEAR ENVIROMENMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS. 0-3 KM EHI VALUES REACHING 3.0 OVER SERN SK AS A RESULT OF THE COMBINED CAPE AND SRH VALUES OVER 300 M2/S2. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BASEBALL-SIZED HAIL, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TORNADIC THREAT IS HIGH. BEST BET FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE IN VC OF THE SURFACE LOW AROUND CYXE OR ALONG THE DRYLINE THRU THE HIGHWAY 11 CORRIDOR TO CYQR THEN SOUTH TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, HOWEVER ANYWHERE EAST OF THE 107 LINE OF LONGITUDE AND SOUTH OF WASKESIU COULD SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. TDS HAVE ALREADY RISEN TO 18 CELSIUS, AND LATEST AMDAR AT YQR IS SHOWING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 KTS BELOW 850MB. A LINE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED BETWEEN YXE AND YQR RIDING ABOVE THE CAP. THIS IS FURTHER EVIDENCE TO THE DEEP MOISTURE IN SK TODAY. LOOK FOR THESE STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, AND POTENTIAL NEW SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING, PUSHING INTO THE PARKLANDS AREA OF WEST-CENTRAL MANITOBA. STRENGTHENING UPPER JET THIS EVENING OVER MB SUGGESTS STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT...WITH UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A CONVECTIVE LINE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MOVING THRU THE INTERLAKE AREA OF MB LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING EASTWARD THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO ONTARIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Setup looks very much May-ish in nature with good instability and good dynamics. There's even evidence of a pseudo-dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Hodographs become substantially large and clockwise curved around the Regina/Trans Canada corridor around 00z. Mid-upper 60s dews becoming entrenched to the east of the boundary and sfc winds are definitely backing, 3 km EHI already up to 5 in the region per mesoanalysis. Towers look to be going up south of Moose Jaw per latest satellite evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Definitely looks like the first supercell of the day near Spring Valley. Another isolated cell developing near Regina. Tornado Hunter is streaming here too: http://new.livestream.com/TornadoHunterTest/events/2234523 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Entire line is unzipping down into Montana. Tornado watch with 50/30 probs issued for MT and ND, rather strong couplet on one of the cells in MT. Tornado reported with this cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Very strong couplet now on that MT cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Classic donut hole tornado with TDS for the past 3 frames with level 2 data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Has been over 100 kts GTG for at least the past three scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1402 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0539 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT...FAR NWRN ND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 415... VALID 152239Z - 152345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 415 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...INTENSE SUPERCELL OVER ROOSEVELT COUNTY MT MAY BE YIELDING A LONG-LIVED TORNADO AS IT GRADUALLY TRACKS EWD ACROSS NERN MT. DISCUSSION...INTENSE MESOCYCLONE WITH A HISTORY OF TORNADO REPORTS IS GENERALLY PARALLELING THE US-2 CORRIDOR BY ABOUT 20 MILES TO THE NORTH IN ROOSEVELT COUNTY MT. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIAL MAINTENANCE OF THIS STRONG SUPERCELL...GIVEN SMALLER DOWNSTREAM SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SLYS. OWING TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION TO ITS IMMEDIATE S...SETUP MAY YIELD A SLOW-MOVING LONG-DURATION TORNADO THAT COULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE MT HWY 16 CORRIDOR. ..GRAMS.. 07/15/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 The supercell SE of Regina is no sloucher either: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=out&num=0&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=XBE&type=C0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 The supercell SE of Regina is no sloucher either: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=out&num=0&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=XBE&type=C0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Couplet has really tightened up on that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Best deep layer shear is definitely lagging the warm sector per mesoanalysis, likely contributing to the problems with maintaining discrete convective mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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